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6 hours ago, socaltiger said:

Adam Eaton and Chris Sale were traded in 2016 and Verlander and JD in 2017

DD did good getting Jacoby

 

Avila has also ramped up the analytics and kept the scouts.

they were traded in the winter meetings for the season before verlander and jd were traded at the deadline.  basically the same.

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War since trades:

JV: 16 (one great half year, two great years)

JD: 12 (one great half year, one great year, one good year)

Nick: 3 (two good half years = almost one good year)

Upton: 2 (one good/two bad years)

That's 3 good years, 3 great years, and 2 bad years totaling over 30 WAR.  30 is surprising, but I think anybody could have assumed at least 15-20 by now. 

Could anyone have reasonably assumed that kind of return from what we got back?  I realize the difference would be made up with $$ savings and the better timing of future return performance with a future state winning team.  All of this is standard issue firesale logic, but you still have got to get some WAR in return at some point.

In any case, the prospects we recieved were not very good to begin with, and the Astros leveraged technology to assist JV where the Tigers had failed to similarly invest under years of AAs influence and several years of direct control.

I would not say that AA has been unlucky, anymore than the Twins, a very strong drafting/development org, were unlucky in the way that things turned out for their high 1st round draft picks for a few years.   The difference is that the Twins produced a lot of success elsewhere to more than make up for their failures.

 

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38 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Sorry, but none of these guys have more potential than Reyes...which I realize ain't sayin' much.

that's bull**** and completely subjective.  Each can take a walk, have more speed, power potential and defensive ability.  The only thing Reyes has is the ability to switch hit.

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He can hit if hitting for power and drawing walks is not considered part of hitting. I think he's OK as a fourth outfielder.  

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Reyes' presence on the team is not hurting the long term development of anyone significant.

The fact he has taken away time from some guys should be a pretty good indicator of their respective upside and production.

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

that's bull**** and completely subjective.  Each can take a walk, have more speed, power potential and defensive ability.  The only thing Reyes has is the ability to switch hit.

Ok, to be fair, I really like fringy prospects like Demeritte with power....so I'd like to see a little more from him.

I thought that Daz could be our everyday CF....Daz's hitting is really suspect at this point.  He basically could become similar to Reyes with some power upside and some more walks...not much to scream about there so far, but lets give him a shot, absolutley.

I have never liked Hill..IMO he would be a faster version of Reyes at best.  Fringy speedster.  I dont care what they do with Hill.

Finally, I have never liked Reyes and consider him a decent 4th OF at best.  And while I have hopes for Daz, I am disappointed thus far.

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32 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Reyes' presence on the team is not hurting the long term development of anyone significant.

The fact he has taken away time from some guys should be a pretty good indicator of their respective upside and production.

A better way of stating what I was trying to convey.

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57 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

He can hit if hitting for power and drawing walks is not considered part of hitting. I think he's OK as a fourth outfielder.  

That was part tongue in cheek  - the comparison being to Derek and Daz, where Reyes has done more against MLB pitching than they have against AA and AAA pitching - granted Cameron still has a year or two to catch up. My argument about team construction is to concentrate on replacing the players where there is the most potential for improvement. Right now that is the 3rd OF - Stewart, 1B - Candelario is doing fine right now for a 3B, but still is not a suitable bat as a 1B, and SS, where Niko's weaknesses appear to be getting more exposed as a full time player.

It's too bad that it appears of the few decent bats they have, Candelario and Paredes are both 3B. I suppose if Paredes could move to 2nd when Schoop is gone (and assuming that Candelario is now healthy and can sustain what he is doing - a big if), then that would resolve the collision. Still leaving the need for a power hitting 1B

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All good points and it does boil down to wins and loses and so far that has not happened but I remain optimistic and think Avilia has done a good job. It's bloody hard building a baseball team and we do not know the back story. But as pointed out by many more knowledgeable fans here on the board than me not as good as I think. Having said that I think we are getting close to consistent competitive baseball in Detroit.

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23 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

All good points and it does boil down to wins and loses and so far that has not happened but I remain optimistic and think Avilia has done a good job. It's bloody hard building a baseball team and we do not know the back story. But as pointed out by many more knowledgeable fans here on the board than me not as good as I think. Having said that I think we are getting close to consistent competitive baseball in Detroit.

dombrowski took over a tigers team in late 2002.  in 2003 they lost 119 games.  by 2006 they were in the world series.

avila took over a team in playoff competition and in 4 years turned them into the worst team in baseball.  twice.

if were holding al to dombrowksi's timeline, the tigers should be in the world series in next year.

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30 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

That was part tongue in cheek  - the comparison being to Derek and Daz, where Reyes has done more against MLB pitching than they have against AA and AAA pitching - granted Cameron still has a year or two to catch up. My argument about team construction is to concentrate on replacing the players where there is the most potential for improvement. Right now that is the 3rd OF - Stewart, 1B - Candelario is doing fine right now for a 3B, but still is not a suitable bat as a 1B, and SS, where Niko's weaknesses appear to be getting more exposed as a full time player.

It's too bad that it appears of the few decent bats they have, Candelario and Paredes are both 3B. I suppose if Paredes could move to 2nd when Schoop is gone (and assuming that Candelario is now healthy and can sustain what he is doing - a big if), then that would resolve the collision. Still leaving the need for a power hitting 1B

Torkelson should be arriving next year.  It would be nice to see an infield of Tork - Paredes - Castro - Candelario next year.  Castro and Candelario next year.  Castro and Candy could easily fail, but next year will still be a year for seeing what the kids can do...if you want to call Candy still a kid at 27.    

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5 minutes ago, Buddha said:

dombrowski took over a tigers team in late 2002.  in 2003 they lost 119 games.  by 2006 they were in the world series.

avila took over a team in playoff competition and in 4 years turned them into the worst team in baseball.  twice.

if were holding al to dombrowksi's timeline, the tigers should be in the world series in next year.

How big a check would C Ilitch have to write tomorrow to sign 8 FA comparable to Jones, Guillen, Rodriguez, Walker, Rogers, Polanco, Casey & Ordonez?

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

How big a check would C Ilitch have to write tomorrow to sign 8 FA comparable to Jones, Guillen, Rodriguez, Walker, Rogers, Polanco, Casey & Ordonez?

because avila has definitely shown an ability to upgrade the team when he was given money to spend, right?  how much did they pay to get zimmerman, upton, and clark?  that worked out well.

and guillen and polanco were trades.  ordonez and pudge?  sure.  the rest were journeymen.

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9 minutes ago, Buddha said:

because avila has definitely shown an ability to upgrade the team when he was given money to spend, right?  how much did they pay to get zimmerman, upton, and clark?  that worked out well.

and guillen and polanco were trades.  ordonez and pudge?  sure.  the rest were journeymen.

Who is Clark?

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18 minutes ago, Buddha said:

because avila has definitely shown an ability to upgrade the team when he was given money to spend, right?  how much did they pay to get zimmerman, upton, and clark?  that worked out well.

and guillen and polanco were trades.  ordonez and pudge?  sure.  the rest were journeymen.

More the idea of what the payroll will have to jump to.

Upton was productive for them. Zimmermann was definitely a disaster for the ages. I'm blanking on 'Clark' (also)

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32 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

 Castro and Candy could easily fail, but next year will still be a year for seeing what the kids can do...if you want to call Candy still a kid at 27.    

yeah - is what we are seeing from Candelario now Jekyll or Hyde?

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17 minutes ago, Buddha said:

because avila has definitely shown an ability to upgrade the team when he was given money to spend, right?  how much did they pay to get zimmerman, upton, and clark?  that worked out well.

and guillen and polanco were trades.  ordonez and pudge?  sure.  the rest were journeymen.

Casey was also a late season trade and was a negative WAR player for the Tigers, so...

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1 hour ago, socaltiger said:

All good points and it does boil down to wins and loses and so far that has not happened but I remain optimistic and think Avilia has done a good job. It's bloody hard building a baseball team and we do not know the back story. But as pointed out by many more knowledgeable fans here on the board than me not as good as I think. Having said that I think we are getting close to consistent competitive baseball in Detroit.

For the love of Pete I just don't see how you can possibly say that Avila has done a "good job".  For all of the firesales, losing, and high draft picks a random number generator as GM could have drafted Mize, Greene, and Tork....those 3 alone are a substantial part of the reason why we have a top-half-of-baseball farm system by now.  The Jeimer/Isaac haul for Wilson was nice, and signing Schoop/Cron was good, but other than that Avila has completely sucked eggs in all regards.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Torkelson should be arriving next year.  It would be nice to see an infield of Tork - Paredes - Castro - Candelario next year.  Castro and Candelario next year.  Castro and Candy could easily fail, but next year will still be a year for seeing what the kids can do...if you want to call Candy still a kid at 27.    

That's a potentially decent IF....maybe Greene shows up too in LF....maybe the rotation solidifies with Mize, Manning, Skubal.  A lot of maybes and still a lot of holes even if those all work out well enough.  Overall it feels like we're trying to be a .500 team and start to justify FA spend by 2023.  That's still a long way off and 5+ years of losing baseball to get back to .500.  Then we have core players under control for 3-5 years, then we can tear it all down and have 5+ years of awful baseball again, right?  

This model sucks.  We need an owner and GM combo who have the purse, the will and the ability to build a winning program through reliable player development.  The Twins are doing it in all phases....some high draft picks, some middling draft picks, some FAs, some trades, and an above average payroll.  That's what good teams do.

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Don't know whether it's the scouting, analytics, coaching or a combo of all 3 but we definitely have to start hitting on some players outside of the top of draft. 

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12 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

That's a potentially decent IF....maybe Greene shows up too in LF....maybe the rotation solidifies with Mize, Manning, Skubal.  A lot of maybes and still a lot of holes even if those all work out well enough.  Overall it feels like we're trying to be a .500 team and start to justify FA spend by 2023.  That's still a long way off and 5+ years of losing baseball to get back to .500.  Then we have core players under control for 3-5 years, then we can tear it all down and have 5+ years of awful baseball again, right?  

This model sucks.  We need an owner and GM combo who have the purse, the will and the ability to build a winning program through reliable player development.  The Twins are doing it in all phases....some high draft picks, some middling draft picks, some FAs, some trades, and an above average payroll.  That's what good teams do.

Lol

From 2011-2018, the twins had six below .500 seasons, and their two winnings seasons were 83 and 85 wins. The 85 win season did earn them a loss in the wild card game. That was in 2017. They followed that up with a 78 win season in 2018.

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The Twins changed executives just as all their losing paid off. I'm guessing the next guy will look like a genius once Avila is fired. He will be better than Avila because that'sn not hard. But he'll inherit a team with an open payroll and some decent prospects.

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