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DumberAndLeaner

The Future is Now

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27 minutes ago, Buddha said:

im not even talking about the hindsight of him turning into late stage roger clemens, i mean that the prospect package did not work out.

you and i are just fans.  avila has a network of professional scouts and heads an organization dedicated to getting the best out of his assets (players).  if you or i look at a website ranking and see names we like, thats a thing us amateurs do.  but he is paid to know if these players will advance.  and they havent.  and that means he failed in his job.

in other words, i think its perfectly fine that some of us thought it seemed like a good deal at the time but now realize it wasnt.  the only caveat is that we dont know what else was out there.

did he turn down jimenez/cease for verlander or fulmer?  we'll never know for sure.  avila will certainly never say...

trading your biggest assets was the most important decision he has had to make and the return from them has been abysmal.  thats a huge failure, imo.

Verlander was not seen as an asset by the industry, he was seen as an aging pitcher, who was coming off an injury with declining stuff and a ton of miles on his body.    Oh and happened to be the highest paid pitcher in the league at that point.   

Along with Cabrera he was viewed as one of 5 must untradeable players in baseball by multiple publications.(EsPN,fangraphs) 

I do agree that not trading Fulmer was a mistake because even if you didn't expect him to fall apart like he has he simply didn't match up with our competitive timeline.  We planned a total rebuild and weren't expecting to compete for atleast a few more years so there wasn't much point in keeping a young pitcher and just having him waste bullets on bad teams.   By the time we were ready to compete he would be due an extension that we probably be better served not handing out.

With that said though we don't know what was offered, perhaps Avila thought if Fulmer had anther dominant season his trade value would go up even if that meant he had 1 less year of control.  But unfortunately for him Fulmer turned into a pumpkin. 

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I will say that the Tigers have been incredibly unlucky as well.  

First off right when they should've started the rebuild in 2015 they still had an owner clinging on to the hopes of winning a championship which forced our hands into spending money on guys like Zimm and Upton.

Worse though it forced us to keep guys like Kinsler, JD and Verlander when they may have actually gotten a decent return then. 

Then in 2016 we were just good enough where we couldn't sell off then, perhaps if we were 4 or 5 games worse we could've dealt those players for a bigger return but unfortunately we weren't. 

Then in 2017 Verlander just happens to get off to the worst start of his career and look like a washed up pitcher that nobody wanted.  By the time he turned it around in late July teams like the Cubs and Dodgers already went elsewhere killing any chance of a real return.   If he didn't suck so bad to start things couldve turned out differently. 

Then potential young assets like Fulmer, Norris and Boyd completely collapse killing any value they have for us or on the market. 

Basically almost everything that couldve gone wrong for the Tigers the past 5 years has.

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34 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I do agree that not trading Fulmer was a mistake

I blame Fulmer on the org's analytics capacity still being poor. Fulmer has never looked good through the lens of pitching analytics; never had enough change of speed or vertical movement to break through as an elite pitcher. But the Tigers were still fans of sinker pitchers at that point, having apparently not processed the lessons from watching both Verlander and Porcello develop on their watch.

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

Who knows with Rogers and Perez. We don’t really know anything regarding their performance in Toledo scrimmages

Luckily Perez's injuries, while costing him time, have not been permanent structural damage. Obviously losing development time is a bad thing also, but it's not like the potential he was originally ranked for has been irrevocably lost. 

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I refuse to agree with the Fulmer thing, too. The timing of that whole thing is an important factor that is ignored by those that lament not trading him when we had the chance. 

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i get the reasons (and excuses) for avila's trades, but at the end of the day this is a results business and his trades have not yet produced good results.

there are plenty of baseball executives out there.  there is no reason to think they couldnt do a better a job than he has done.

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Discounting for the pressure from Mr. I to compete and make rash decisions ( Zimmerman ) and from Chris I forcing him ( allegedly ) to reduce salary ( Dump JD and JV ) Al Avila has done a reasonably good job and maybe even very good removing the shade of hindsight. 

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1 minute ago, socaltiger said:

Discounting for the pressure from Mr. I to compete and make rash decisions ( Zimmerman ) and from Chris I forcing him ( allegedly ) to reduce salary ( Dump JD and JV ) Al Avila has done a reasonably good job and maybe even very good removing the shade of hindsight. 

by what measure?

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I believe they said early on that "younger and leaner" was the direction they wanted to go, and they in fact are leaner in the payroll dept.  Weighed in a context of which  goal is more important, building for  future  success or reducing payroll....they have succeeded in the latter, while the former may have been little more than a convenient ruse.

There is no indication that little Itch is unhappy with AA's performance, so it might be safe to conclude that he's doing the job they expect of him, which may be entirely different from the priorities we fans think he should have.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

by what measure?

1. Solid drafts for 3 years. Picking high is easy but Tork-Mize-Greene look solid so he didn't blow it and this years draft all look promising and Skubal was a rare find..so we hope.

2. Getting rid of Upton's salary was underrated.

3. Paredes and Candy for Avila/Wilson was excellent and more than made up for C.Green/Cessa for Wilson. I value Paredes highly.

4. JD was bad given the time left on the trade clock for the return. But committing to the tear down led to first pick/Mize. We started the year as contenders and he made a wise decision to sell and got us to a high draft position.

5. Verlander trade was good on paper. Not his fault Perez is not an established starter in our rotation due to injury and Rogers was highly rated defensively and Daz was a promising 3rd piece with good bloodlines. Plus more $$ savings and contributed to a low pick.We still can get something out of this. 

6. Fulmer not traded is hindsight because he did get injured. Bad Luck.

7. Martin for W. Castro was real good.

8. Victor Reyes  is a solid rule 5 pick up- solid bench player w/speed.

9. Jacoby Jones and N. Goodrum were good scrap heap pick ups.

10. We went from the lowest rated farm system to top 5...again picking low helped. But we did.

11. Cron- Romine-Schoop were good/solid value priced free agents.

The industry did make a big change right before we tore down as minor league players became way more valued making trading veterans for youngsters like the White Sox did virtually impossible. I am worried about his pending foray into the free agent market bit all considered I give him a solid B grade.

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People who work for me are expected to succeed at the job that they are assigned to do ..which not only makes them successful, but also helps make me successful ..which in turn, helps our customers be successful.    Thus, in effort to determine whether  Al Avila is doing a good job or not ..one can reasonably conclude that his boss Chris Ilitch is the ultimate barometer as to whether his (Chris's) goals have been met and/or exceeded, as well as whether he (Chris) feels Al has increased his (Chris's) success..  

As for my opinion of Al Avila ..I can only base it from a fan's perspective, including whether I personally believe he (Al) has been successful at improving the team, or not.  And in order to do that, I must first determine how I might measure (or evaluate) the degree of his (Al's) success, or lack thereof.

Toward that endeavor .. one question that quickly comes to mind is:  "Are the Tigers better now under Al's guidance over the past 5 years than they were at the beginning of those 5 years?  My initial reaction is that their farm system has certainly improved.  But, is that enough?  My immediate thought is that "'No', that is probably not enough" .. and one reason is because any current MLB organization's farm system should logically be expected to improve if they lose as much and as often as the Tigers have under Al Avila's leadership.

So, another question might be;  "Is the organization as a whole better equipped to build and sustain long-term success?"  To which the fast answer that comes to mind is:  "Too early to know for certain."  And this ""Too early to know" answer seems to be shared by many other hopeful Tiger fans among several various Tiger discussion forums on the web.

I honestly cannot say the Tiger's organization as a whole is better under Al than before Al.  I believe it remains to be seen whether the entire organization's coaching systems and development systems have improved (or not.)  This suggests to me that perhaps Al Avila has not succeeded at all .. and that perhaps the only improvement (farm system) was to the variable (perceived) value of their still MLB-unproven prospects which were primarily gained via failure (losing) under Al's leadership.

My (Tiger heart)  hope is that Al Avila will be considered a success within the next couple years.  But for now, at this current specific point in time, my opinion is that Al Avila has not succeeded at all except by default due to failure (losing, which gained top drafts picks).

.....

With all that said, seems to me that offering to trade any valuable player should be undertaken with a view toward desired (expected) actual return.  The best way to explain what I mean is to say that no player should be traded solely for what he can 'fetch' .. but rather, should be traded for what the trading team actually expects to acquire in return ..and if expected return on value is not offered, then pull the player off the market and keep him!  Yes, as a fan, instead of trading JV and/or JD for less than desired .. I would rather have kept JV and JD and enjoyed their extended time playing for the Tigers.  

Now, if Salary Dump was Al's primary motive (via Chris Ilitch directive) .. then perhaps Al Avila has been an outstanding success!  A contract extension lends credibility toward this view..

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2 hours ago, socaltiger said:

1. Solid drafts for 3 years. Picking high is easy but Tork-Mize-Greene look solid so he didn't blow it and this years draft all look promising and Skubal was a rare find..so we hope.

2. Getting rid of Upton's salary was underrated.

3. Paredes and Candy for Avila/Wilson was excellent and more than made up for C.Green/Cessa for Wilson. I value Paredes highly.

4. JD was bad given the time left on the trade clock for the return. But committing to the tear down led to first pick/Mize. We started the year as contenders and he made a wise decision to sell and got us to a high draft position.

5. Verlander trade was good on paper. Not his fault Perez is not an established starter in our rotation due to injury and Rogers was highly rated defensively and Daz was a promising 3rd piece with good bloodlines. Plus more $$ savings and contributed to a low pick.We still can get something out of this. 

6. Fulmer not traded is hindsight because he did get injured. Bad Luck.

7. Martin for W. Castro was real good.

8. Victor Reyes  is a solid rule 5 pick up- solid bench player w/speed.

9. Jacoby Jones and N. Goodrum were good scrap heap pick ups.

10. We went from the lowest rated farm system to top 5...again picking low helped. But we did.

11. Cron- Romine-Schoop were good/solid value priced free agents.

The industry did make a big change right before we tore down as minor league players became way more valued making trading veterans for youngsters like the White Sox did virtually impossible. I am worried about his pending foray into the free agent market bit all considered I give him a solid B grade.

You lost me at #8

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

You lost me at #8

I don't get why so many people dump on Reyes. Since he started playing regularly last year he's been a little better than a 2 WAR player - (he's currently 4th among Tiger positions players). He's turned out to be just about an average kind of major leaguer - there is nothing wrong with that. That's a player you will replace if something better comes along but there are worse deficits on the team to worry about first before you worry about him.

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I’d rather his at bats go to Hill, Cameron or Demeritte, each of whom have more potential.  

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11 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I’d rather his at bats go to Hill, Cameron or Demeritte, each of whom have more potential.  

When they've already benched Stewart for one of them, then I'll worry about Reyes' PT. I wouldn't mind seeing Demeritte get a little more run. Have a hard time seeing Hill or Cameron not getting eaten up by MLB pitching.

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On 8/25/2020 at 10:58 PM, Yoda said:

Guess how this works. When every team knows you'll take garbage, they aren't going to make high offers. 

As good as JD's bat has been, his overall value isn't worth the salary. I think Boston would unload him in a heartbeat. Even after he tore it up in arizona teams were not lining up to sign him. Every article I read said nobody offered anything of value for JD, same with JV.

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jacoby jones wasnt a scrap heap pick up, dombrowski traded for him.  not even an avila transaction.

and the white sox did their trades the same year the tigers traded jv and jd.

hard to give credit to avila for the great drafts when none have made an impact in the majors (because its too early) and no one else other than the #1 picks and skubal is emerging.  the system better be stocked with talent after picking #1 twice and in the top 5 for multiple years in a row!  and if anything, the system is top heavy without much depth.

its too early to say anything about avila'a drafts, imo.  good or bad.

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17 minutes ago, Buddha said:

jacoby jones wasnt a scrap heap pick up, dombrowski traded for him.  not even an avila transaction.

and the white sox did their trades the same year the tigers traded jv and jd.

hard to give credit to avila for the great drafts when none have made an impact in the majors (because its too early) and no one else other than the #1 picks and skubal is emerging.  the system better be stocked with talent after picking #1 twice and in the top 5 for multiple years in a row!  and if anything, the system is top heavy without much depth.

its too early to say anything about avila'a drafts, imo.  good or bad.

Adam Eaton and Chris Sale were traded in 2016 and Verlander and JD in 2017

DD did good getting Jacoby

 

Avila has also ramped up the analytics and kept the scouts.

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Comparing Sale/Eaton to JV/JD is apples to oranges.   Chris Sale was 27 when he was traded, Verlander was 35.    Adam Eaton was 26 coming off a nearly 7 win season and most importantly had 4 years of control left on his contract vs. 2 months for JD.     The Tigers just simply didn't have assets like that.  

BTW credit to the White Sox for not standing pat and just keeping Eaton.   They realized that by the time they were ready to compete he'd be at or in his 30s and likely due to a big contract(if he kept up the same performance) so they sold high on him.   I would like to think the Tigers would have done the same if they had that same opportunity but we will never really know.  

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All interesting arguments and perspectives about these trades...however as fans IMO we just simply do not possess enough information to be able to objectively evaluate trades that were made versus trades could have been made.  

I do think we are equipped to evaluate the results, and to say that the trading away a half dozen high caliber veterans and getting no major league assets in return (thus far) is an objective failure to-date, and people seem to agree at least on that point.

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2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Comparing Sale/Eaton to JV/JD is apples to oranges.   Chris Sale was 27 when he was traded, Verlander was 35.    Adam Eaton was 26 coming off a nearly 7 win season and most importantly had 4 years of control left on his contract vs. 2 months for JD.     The Tigers just simply didn't have assets like that.  

BTW credit to the White Sox for not standing pat and just keeping Eaton.   They realized that by the time they were ready to compete he'd be at or in his 30s and likely due to a big contract(if he kept up the same performance) so they sold high on him.   I would like to think the Tigers would have done the same if they had that same opportunity but we will never really know.  

even with his tear in Boston, JD has never put up the 3 year WAR total that Eaton had before he was traded. But to me the real value of the comparison with the palehose is you don't wait to sell rentals, you sell as soon as you decide you  are not re-signing the player - i.e., at least a year earlier than the Tigers dealt JD.

Conversely, since JV was still going to be under contract,  I think you can fault AA for not waiting until the off season to deal JV when he could not negotiate more MLB ready returns. It comes down to what they were reading in their evaluation of his medicals and what the coaching staff was seeing in his work. If they had held him to the offseason he would have finished the season with ~140 IP of sub 3.0 ERA work to cement his return to dominance. Sort of like with Scherzer, they just didn't believe enough in what they had. 

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9 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I’d rather his at bats go to Hill, Cameron or Demeritte, each of whom have more potential.  

Sorry, but none of these guys have more potential than Reyes...which I realize ain't sayin' much.

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6 hours ago, socaltiger said:

Adam Eaton and Chris Sale were traded in 2016 and Verlander and JD in 2017

DD did good getting Jacoby

 

Avila has also ramped up the analytics and kept the scouts.

Avila sat on his hands until he had to play catchup with everyone else. But sure, he finally did something. 

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Half dozen high caliber veterans!

I'm quoting Mongo from Blazing Saddles I think

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