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DumberAndLeaner

The Future is Now

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when JD became a free agent a few months later, 2 of 30 MLB teams, having to spend nothing but $$$ and no draft pick compensation, bid for JD.

DD eventually bid against himself, increasing his 5/100 offer to 5/110

Obvious the league group think had changed re JDM type players.

 

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2 hours ago, Longgone said:

How it works: if a player is perceived as valuable, teams will compete for his services and bid against each other.

So it was that JD Martinez and Justin Verlander weren't perceived to have value rather than teams knowing Avila will take garbage. Got it. 

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Not that fangraphs is the be all end all but they wrote an article about a week before the Verlander trade suggesting that the Tigers would need to eat half of JVs salary just to get back a single prospect of note. 

They ate less than that and not only got 1 prospect of note but 3 including a then top 40 overall prospect.

Of course their lack of development of them is a completely different story.

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17 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not that fangraphs is the be all end all but they wrote an article about a week before the Verlander trade suggesting that the Tigers would need to eat half of JVs salary just to get back a single prospect of note. 

 

That is exactly what bothered me about the JV trade. It wasn't the return per se, it was that they refused to buy more in the one deal where they had a chance. They could have done even better.

There really are only two ways to get more talent into your system, draft it, or buy it. And the only way to buy it with expensive older players to offer to carry their salaries. It's about the only direct way to turn money into more young players -  but the Tigers refused to play. Bottom line, they wanted out of the cost more than they wanted the rebuild.

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11 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not that fangraphs is the be all end all but they wrote an article about a week before the Verlander trade suggesting that the Tigers would need to eat half of JVs salary just to get back a single prospect of note. 

They ate less than that and not only got 1 prospect of note but 3 including a then top 40 overall prospect.

Of course their lack of development of them is a completely different story.

I hate sticking up for Al, because he is really awful and has zero ability to foresee emerging trends, but he got what he could get.

A smarter GM with some guts and a vision of the future (for his team and MLB) would not have found himself in a corner with so few options.

but

Kinsler did not last 1 season in LA.

The Angels are looking at Pujols 2.0 with Justin Upton.

Friers was non-tendered by the A's a few months after trade.

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1 hour ago, Yoda said:

So it was that JD Martinez and Justin Verlander weren't perceived to have value rather than teams knowing Avila will take garbage. Got it. 

All the other teams would have to collude against the Tigers for what you are saying to make sense. There just wasn't much of a market for those guys at that time. The return for Verlander was actually quite good, they haven't panned out, but that doesn't mean they weren't highly regarded prospects at the time. 

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Avila has not been very effective at trades and FA acquisitions.  Cron and Schoop were outstanding FA pick-ups, and his trades for Maybin a few years ago and for Candelario/Parades were shrewd.

However, he utterly and completely failed to get even one likely decent outcome for JV, JD, Upton, Shane Greene or Nick.  I get that they were salary dumps but c'mon, we should be able to boast one or two major league outcomes for all of that.

Other than Cron and Schoop, FA acquisitions have been unimpressive at best.

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Leonys Martin was a good FA pickup and it was a pretty solid move getting Willi for him.

Fiers was another solid signing even though we didn't get as much for him in return as I would've like.

But yeah for the most part his signings have been nothing to write home about but for the most part they were just flyers anyway so those rarely pan out.

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15 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

However, he utterly and completely failed to get even one likely decent outcome for JV, JD, Upton, Shane Greene or Nick.  I get that they were salary dumps but c'mon, we should be able to boast one or two major league outcomes for all of that.

 

It remains to be seen on the JV and Shane Greene trades.  I like that we have Perez, Rogers, Cameron and Wentz in our system.

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We have to start to believe our eyes and the numbers with Daz...I like his game and I thought he would be our starting CFer, but gads, he cannot hit.

Rogers and Perez might arrive, but it seems very unlikely.

I hadnt checked on Wentz, he is intriguing...

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23 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

We have to start to believe our eyes and the numbers with Daz...I like his game and I thought he would be our starting CFer, but gads, he cannot hit.

Rogers and Perez might arrive, but it seems very unlikely.

I hadnt checked on Wentz, he is intriguing...

It seems unlikely for Daz at this point. He’s still on the Covid I, I think. Haven’t heard a thing about him even being at the training site. 
 

Who knows with Rogers and Perez. We don’t really know anything regarding their performance in Toledo scrimmages. 
 

Wentz was well regarded heading into this spring but he had TJ. So who knows. Some guys recover just fine and others don’t.  

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I think the only trade really worth arguing about is the JD trade. And to me the only real sticking point is whether the tigers should have waited until closer to the trade deadline to pull the trigger on a deal. It’s easy to complain and wish they would have gotten more. But it’s not fair to dismiss all of the other factors in play with that particular deal. 
 

I looked it up earlier today, but there was a freep article from right after the trade that had a lot of feedback from various scouts and executives on that trade, and the consensus was basically “this was fine.”

But Shane Greene, Upton, Castellanos? Nah.

JV? Nothing objectionable with that deal. 

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13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think the only trade really worth arguing about is the JD trade. And to me the only real sticking point is whether the tigers should have waited until closer to the trade deadline to pull the trigger on a deal. It’s easy to complain and wish they would have gotten more. But it’s not fair to dismiss all of the other factors in play with that particular deal. 
 

I looked it up earlier today, but there was a freep article from right after the trade that had a lot of feedback from various scouts and executives on that trade, and the consensus was basically “this was fine.”

But Shane Greene, Upton, Castellanos? Nah.

JV? Nothing objectionable with that deal. 

none of the prospects in the jv deal have panned out.  why is that not objectionable to you?  

when we ask how the white sox are so good and how we are so bad, the foundation for that is they got stars from dealing their good players and we got nothing.

the situation each team was in was not the same, but they were very similar.  

the centerpiece of the adam eaton trade just threw a no hitter.  the centerpiece of the jd martinez trade - which occurred a few months later - just got dfa'd.

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objectionable is the wrong word.  i would call it a failure, not objectionable.

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

none of the prospects in the jv deal have panned out.  why is that not objectionable to you?  

when we ask how the white sox are so good and how we are so bad, the foundation for that is they got stars from dealing their good players and we got nothing.

the situation each team was in was not the same, but they were very similar.  

the centerpiece of the adam eaton trade just threw a no hitter.  the centerpiece of the jd martinez trade - which occurred a few months later - just got dfa'd.

I guess it is just a difference of perspective. I don’t personally like to take the “we’ll have to wait and see how these guys all pan out” to judge whether a trade was a good decision. I prefer to evaluate based on the information available at the time the decision was made. That is the information Avila and company had, so to me it’s not fair to use hindsight to effectively say “you were/are an idiot.“

I disagree that the White Sox and tigers situations were similar, and I really disagree with comparing JD and Eaton when it comes to trade value. 

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Just now, Buddha said:

objectionable is the wrong word.  i would call it a failure, not objectionable.

I agree that it has been a failure so far (and is very likely to end up being a failure when all is said and done).

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I guess it is just a difference of perspective. I don’t personally like to take the “we’ll have to wait and see how these guys all pan out” to judge whether a trade was a good decision. I prefer to evaluate based on the information available at the time the decision was made. That is the information Avila and company had, so to me it’s not fair to use hindsight to effectively say “you were/are an idiot.“

I disagree that the White Sox and tigers situations were similar, and I really disagree with comparing JD and Eaton when it comes to trade value. 

i dont think avila is an idiot, but i do think he did a poor job in acquiring talent from the talent he had on his team.  i think the results from the jv trade and especially the jd trade were poor.

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9 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i dont think avila is an idiot, but i do think he did a poor job in acquiring talent from the talent he had on his team.  i think the results from the jv trade and especially the jd trade were poor.

I’m not going to convince you otherwise, I know that. It’s indisputable that both trades have been failures to this point.

Unfortunately, we are operating at an informational disadvantage, because we don’t know what other offers were actually on the table and when. 
 

I think two things can be true. The decisions and trades were good when they were made, and they turned out to be failures. 

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3 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I’m not going to convince you otherwise, I know that. It’s indisputable that both trades have been failures to this point.

Unfortunately, we are operating at an informational disadvantage, because we don’t know what other offers were actually on the table and when. 
 

I think two things can be true. The decisions and trades were good when they were made, and they turned out to be failures. 

i agree that we are operating from an informational disadvantage.  its easy for me to say that he could have done better but i dont really know.

i think he should have re-signed him rather than trade him for that junk, but i dont know if that would have been possible either.

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Just now, Buddha said:

i agree that we are operating from an informational disadvantage.  its easy for me to say that he could have done better but i dont really know.

i think he should have re-signed him rather than trade him for that junk, but i dont know if that would have been possible either.

He could have signed him three months later!

As I said earlier, I think the JD deal is the only one where it’s worth getting into the weeds about alternatives. Knowing what the return was going to be at the time, I think it would have been worth it to risk losing that deal and holding out for something better closer to the deadline. They had another couple weeks. There is risk involved there, but when none of three project to be a first division regular, it wouldn’t hurt to lose out on a lottery ticket. That’s a gamble that could have been worth taking. But I also concede that the org was probably very aware of the types of interest out there that year. It was a weird year in the playoff races from what I remember. For all we know AZ was well positioned to trade for someone else and there wasn’t any team willing to pay a premium for a rental that wasn’t going to change their postseason odds. It probably would have required a buyer to have a substantial change of heart. Maybe an important player gets injured or a team has a long streak that changes their outlook. 
 

The other factor is that you never know, maybe the tigers were about to go on a streak of their own.

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4 minutes ago, Shelton said:

He could have signed him three months later!

As I said earlier, I think the JD deal is the only one where it’s worth getting into the weeds about alternatives. Knowing what the return was going to be at the time, I think it would have been worth it to risk losing that deal and holding out for something better closer to the deadline. They had another couple weeks. There is risk involved there, but when none of three project to be a first division regular, it wouldn’t hurt to lose out on a lottery ticket. That’s a gamble that could have been worth taking. But I also concede that the org was probably very aware of the types of interest out there that year. It was a weird year in the playoff races from what I remember. For all we know AZ was well positioned to trade for someone else and there wasn’t any team willing to pay a premium for a rental that wasn’t going to change their postseason odds. It probably would have required a buyer to have a substantial change of heart. Maybe an important player gets injured or a team has a long streak that changes their outlook. 
 

The other factor is that you never know, maybe the tigers were about to go on a streak of their own.

i know the jd trade is what everyone - including me - gripes about.  but in a way the verlander trade may have been worse.  you didnt have to trade him and risk losing nothing because he was under contract.  he had just started to get back into prime jv form iirc.  and the package he accepted included a "top 50" prospect and two other high draft picks.  

unlike jd, he cant say he was backed into a corner and had to do it.  that's the package he wanted.  he could have said no and waited until the offseason to deal him.  and the results from that package so far, have been poor.

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7 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i know the jd trade is what everyone - including me - gripes about.  but in a way the verlander trade may have been worse.  you didnt have to trade him and risk losing nothing because he was under contract.  he had just started to get back into prime jv form iirc.  and the package he accepted included a "top 50" prospect and two other high draft picks.  

unlike jd, he cant say he was backed into a corner and had to do it.  that's the package he wanted.  he could have said no and waited until the offseason to deal him.  and the results from that package so far, have been poor.

I think when you have flipped the switch to rebuild, trading an expensive veteran for a top 50 prospect, and two other well regarded prospects that profiled to be major league regulars, is very reasonable. 
 

I think it’s also worth considering that a month earlier JV was basically untradeable. It’s true that they didn’t have to trade him, but if the reasoning is that you could have just traded him a couple months later, there is a pretty big risk that he gets hurt (again) or loses whatever effectiveness he tapped into over the past month. It’s true that if he kept it up (which he did), the tigers are probably getting back a better package of prospects. At the time, though? I wanted that prospect package bad. 
 

I remember when the news broke that the trade didn’t happen. I was not happy. I think it wasn’t until the next morning that I realized the trade had gone through. That’s just a personal thing, though. But it’s a reason I can’t complain about it now. 
 

I definitely did not think he was going to pitch at a cy young caliber over the next two seasons. 

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

I think when you have flipped the switch to rebuild, trading an expensive veteran for a top 50 prospect, and two other well regarded prospects that profiled to be major league regulars, is very reasonable. 
 

I think it’s also worth considering that a month earlier JV was basically untradeable. It’s true that they didn’t have to trade him, but if the reasoning is that you could have just traded him a couple months later, there is a pretty big risk that he gets hurt (again) or loses whatever effectiveness he tapped into over the past month. It’s true that if he kept it up (which he did), the tigers are probably getting back a better package of prospects. At the time, though? I wanted that prospect package bad. 
 

I remember when the news broke that the trade didn’t happen. I was not happy. I think it wasn’t until the next morning that I realized the trade had gone through. That’s just a personal thing, though. But it’s a reason I can’t complain about it now. 
 

I definitely did not think he was going to pitch at a cy young caliber over the next two seasons. 

im not even talking about the hindsight of him turning into late stage roger clemens, i mean that the prospect package did not work out.

you and i are just fans.  avila has a network of professional scouts and heads an organization dedicated to getting the best out of his assets (players).  if you or i look at a website ranking and see names we like, thats a thing us amateurs do.  but he is paid to know if these players will advance.  and they havent.  and that means he failed in his job.

in other words, i think its perfectly fine that some of us thought it seemed like a good deal at the time but now realize it wasnt.  the only caveat is that we dont know what else was out there.

did he turn down jimenez/cease for verlander or fulmer?  we'll never know for sure.  avila will certainly never say...

trading your biggest assets was the most important decision he has had to make and the return from them has been abysmal.  thats a huge failure, imo.

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42 minutes ago, Shelton said:

. It’s indisputable that both trades have been failures to this point.

 

Not from JD and JV's perspective.

Maybe that's what AA and little Itch  had in mind all along?  Giving those two swell guys, and the other talent that we pizzed away, a legitimate chance to win a ring?  Sure, that's gotta be it. Trading them away was purely an act of selfless generosity. :ph34r:

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I think we all knew early on that Maybin, being the 5 tool untouchable that he was, would eventually win a ring.  We just failed to anticipate that we'd have to trade him away twice  just to get him there

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