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34 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm sure the Astros did help him with some things, they are after all arguably the most advanced analytic team(atleast at that time) in baseball so I would hope he picked up some things.  But with that said the narrative that they magically fixed him wasn't true cause he was good the last month or so we had him which is why they wanted him so bad.   If there was truly something they saw that could be easily fixed they would've traded for him in June instead of the end of August but they didn't, they didn't go after him until he started stringing great starts together with us.  

If the key to the trade was JV's post ASB tear, it seems unlikely to me that only the Astros would have been interested in him because of that.

I'm not sure what you mean by "magically fixed".  He **was** fixed, and nobody is suggesting it was magical (but the results were).  The only question is whether HOU's system helped him or not.  JV said they did help him, so I'm inclined to believe that.  Whether he meant that it was an immediate turnaround they helped him with (which seems contradicted by the earlier starts with DET, but maybe he meant something more about his comfort level rather than the results), or they helped him solidify and continue the success he found after the ASB, I don't know.

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4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

If the key to the trade was JV's post ASB tear, it seems unlikely to me that only the Astros would have been interested in him because of that.

I'm not sure what you mean by "magically fixed".  He **was** fixed, and nobody is suggesting it was magical (but the results were).  The only question is whether HOU's system helped him or not.  JV said they did help him, so I'm inclined to believe that.  Whether he meant that it was an immediate turnaround they helped him with (which seems contradicted by the earlier starts with DET, but maybe he meant something more about his comfort level rather than the results), or they helped him solidify and continue the success he found after the ASB, I don't know.

By "magically" I meant that they saw something as a quick fix and immediately he turned it around.    Again if that were the case they wouldn't have waited to the very last minute to get a deal done.  They were literally minutes away from not having him for the playoff run, if there was something their crack staff saw in him that could be corrected why take that chance of waiting to the last second?

I do think that they helped with his consistency and helped to a certain point, particularly their fielding position cause his BABIP was remarkably low with them but I don't buy that they had everything to do with it.   

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Looking at the game logs, JV was very dominant for 7 out of 8 starts for DET from 7/19/17 through the trade, and for 5 starts for HOU after the trade.  He was maybe slightly better for the last 5 starts, but clearly he was clearly fixed up and dominating long before he was traded.  I do wonder what he meant.

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Just now, RandyMarsh said:

By "magically" I meant that they saw something as a quick fix and immediately he turned it around.    Again if that were the case they wouldn't have waited to the very last minute to get a deal done.  They were literally minutes away from not having him for the playoff run, if there was something their crack staff saw in him that could be corrected why take that chance of waiting to the last second?

I do think that they helped with his consistency and helped to a certain point, particularly their fielding position cause his BABIP was remarkably low with them but I don't buy that they had everything to do with it.   

I thought I heard that the last-second nature of the deal was based on JV's resistance to a trade?  Based on a look at the starts themselves, I can't say that his performance improved after the trade, though as we discussed it might have been extended and made more consistent due to HOUs system.

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2 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Looking at the game logs, JV was very dominant for 7 out of 8 starts for DET from 7/19/17 through the trade, and for 5 starts for HOU after the trade.  He was maybe slightly better for the last 5 starts, but clearly he was clearly fixed up and dominating long before he was traded.  I do wonder what he meant.

I mean he's going to go with whatever narrative everybody is spitting out, particularly when it favors his current team.  If all the media are asking/telling him how great the Astros staff/analytics is and how they fixed him I don't think he's gonna say "Well actually they fixed me in Detroit.."   He's probably just gonna go along with it.  

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2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I mean he's going to go with whatever narrative everybody is spitting out, particularly when it favors his current team.  If all the media are asking/telling him how great the Astros staff/analytics is and how they fixed him I don't think he's gonna say "Well actually they fixed me in Detroit.."   He's probably just gonna go along with it.  

Trevor Bauer wouldn't!

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Also he had a no trade clause,

that is an interesting point. In the swirl of the deadline and going to a playoff team poised for a deep run were they more likely to get JVs assent to a trade than in the off season when it would be a lot easier for JV to sit back and say - "not interested" because any team's success at that point is more speculative?

I hadn't thought about that angle before. You sort of just assume that since he did go, he would go, but the situation would not be the same.

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49 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Looking at the game logs, JV was very dominant for 7 out of 8 starts for DET from 7/19/17 through the trade, and for 5 starts for HOU after the trade.  He was maybe slightly better for the last 5 starts, but clearly he was clearly fixed up and dominating long before he was traded.  I do wonder what he meant.

he got healthy.

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56 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I mean he's going to go with whatever narrative everybody is spitting out, particularly when it favors his current team.  If all the media are asking/telling him how great the Astros staff/analytics is and how they fixed him I don't think he's gonna say "Well actually they fixed me in Detroit.."   He's probably just gonna go along with it.  

Well, Houston did absolutely have bells and whistles that Det did not have at the time and JV, being a student of his own game surely was glad to have the new tools. The question was whether the effect of that on top of where he had already gotten himself was major or  marginal. Plus I think there is a bit of mythologizing that always goes on when pitchers are talking about what they are doing. Verlander had often described tweaking his slider over the years, but the truth for power pitchers is that any slider becomes more effective when the fast ball gets better and when he adjusted his release point mid 2017 and started to recover the FB velo and spin rate he had been missing., no matter what kind of tweak he applied on the slider the odds were his results with it were going to get better! If he had the new tools to refine that more easily also, all to the better.

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Regardless of how well JV was pitching toward the end of his time in Det, nobody was offering more than Houston's package. The Cubs reportedly offered to basically take on his salary. No elite prospects. So maybe Al should have just kept him. But again, then Det does not have Mize. And while I too believed JV was finally healed I did not think he would perform as well as he has in Houston. Obviously neither did other GMs, or they would have offered much better packages

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9 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Looking at the game logs, JV was very dominant for 7 out of 8 starts for DET from 7/19/17 through the trade, and for 5 starts for HOU after the trade.  He was maybe slightly better for the last 5 starts, but clearly he was clearly fixed up and dominating long before he was traded.  I do wonder what he meant.

Recollecting here, I think JV got healthy and he did like (and still does) Detroit. However, he was more hoping for Cubs or Dodgers and he did have a no trade clause. Those two teams did make deals prior I believe for SPs (Quintana/Cubs? and Darvish/LAD?) and perhaps were no longer in position to unload more 'top' prospects and taking on even more payroll. Hou saw that there chances were becoming more realistic (July into August) but it would be hard for them to take on payroll (another reason as to the later timing) as they were/are not the same market as previously two mentioned teams per say - but Hou reportedly was staying in touch with AA throughout. AA was only going to take a certain package of players and FPerez was one of the players Hou had a hard time parting with (so said)... Through the month of August JV's outings were getting stronger and this really helped convince Hou and by the time of the deadline Hou gave into AA's demands (and Det had to take on some of the salary as well) and then Hou reached out to JV (several people within the org) helped him get more comfortable, and got his consent (of course talked it over with Kate) - then the deal went down reportedly during the last minutes.

JV did get healthier and was pitching quite well at the time. Hou was of course noted for being ahead of analytics - and no doubt probably helped him in 'some' areas, as one poster said earlier JV was/is a student of the game also.

Now, if we can get some value in return from any of the trio we received (still early, but - )... We shall see...

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Well, Houston did absolutely have bells and whistles that Det did not have at the time and JV, being a student of his own game surely was glad to have the new tools. The question was whether the effect of that on top of where he had already gotten himself was major or  marginal. Plus I think there is a bit of mythologizing that always goes on when pitchers are talking about what they are doing. Verlander had often described tweaking his slider over the years, but the truth for power pitchers is that any slider becomes more effective when the fast ball gets better and when he adjusted his release point mid 2017 and started to recover the FB velo and spin rate he had been missing., no matter what kind of tweak he applied on the slider the odds were his results with it were going to get better! If he had the new tools to refine that more easily also, all to the better.

I was listening to a Cubs game and Kyle Ryan was on the post game show, he had pitched well in the that day. They asked him about what changed for him to become such a nice reliever. He said that he the Cubs showed him spin rates and pitch movement charts and he got a much better idea of how to attack hitters. It was something that he knew nothing about while with Detroit. 

 

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54 minutes ago, leflore said:

Regardless of how well JV was pitching toward the end of his time in Det, nobody was offering more than Houston's package. The Cubs reportedly offered to basically take on his salary. No elite prospects. So maybe Al should have just kept him. But again, then Det does not have Mize. And while I too believed JV was finally healed I did not think he would perform as well as he has in Houston. Obviously neither did other GMs, or they would have offered much better packages

how do we know what was offered? 

all we know is that avila liked the three prospects they got back from houston and so far it hasnt panned out.

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29 minutes ago, Buddha said:

how do we know what was offered? 

all we know is that avila liked the three prospects they got back from houston and so far it hasnt panned out.

Al did say JV would veto (had 10 & 5) all but a few places. He wanted to go to LA or Chicago. LA wasn't interested and the Cubs offered no top prospects. That went public shortly after the trade. Al got the best offer available. JV almost vetoed Houston. Kate talked him into accepting at the last minute.

I think you guys are overestimating how GMs saw his value, given his age, injury history and the fact he had 2+ seasons left on his contract at 27 mil per.

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47 minutes ago, leflore said:

Al did say JV would veto (had 10 & 5) all but a few places. He wanted to go to LA or Chicago. LA wasn't interested and the Cubs offered no top prospects. That went public shortly after the trade. Al got the best offer available. JV almost vetoed Houston. Kate talked him into accepting at the last minute.

I think you guys are overestimating how GMs saw his value, given his age, injury history and the fact he had 2+ seasons left on his contract at 27 mil per.

the cubs had already traded their prospects for jose quintana.  they had nothing of value left.  he wanted to go to the cubs but theo was so worried about dollars he gave up a top 5 prospect and a top 50 prospect for jose flipping quintana.  

we dont know what the dodgers offered, if anything.  we dont know if the astros offered other prospects and avila chose these three.  we dont know if other teams were involved.  

we do know that he didnt have to trade verlander for those prospects if he didnt think it was good value.  

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4 minutes ago, Buddha said:

the cubs had already traded their prospects for jose quintana.  they had nothing of value left.  he wanted to go to the cubs but theo was so worried about dollars he gave up a top 5 prospect and a top 50 prospect for jose flipping quintana.  

we dont know what the dodgers offered, if anything.  we dont know if the astros offered other prospects and avila chose these three.  we dont know if other teams were involved.  

we do know that he didnt have to trade verlander for those prospects if he didnt think it was good value.  

Yes, this is precisely correct. Your final sentence is what it all boils down to. 

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JV didn’t just get better during 2017. He should have won the CY Young Award in 2016. 

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28 minutes ago, Oblong said:

JV didn’t just get better during 2017. He should have won the CY Young Award in 2016. 

Yup. 

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In hindsight we probably should've dealt him in the 2016 off-season but considering we only missed the playoffs by a game or two I can understand why you wouldn't want to sell just yet.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

JV didn’t just get better during 2017. He should have won the CY Young Award in 2016. 

And he would have if he didn’t spend the early part of that 2016 season pitching like crap. I’m pretty sure that was the year where he said “just you wait” or “don’t doubt me, it’s coming” or something like that right before he went on his tear.

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10 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

In hindsight we probably should've dealt him in the 2016 off-season but considering we only missed the playoffs by a game or two I can understand why you wouldn't want to sell just yet.

I think that is a big reason why 2017 was so frustrating. The team showed up to play, and JD was injured, JV forgot how to pitch again, Fulmer wasn’t as good, etc. At least Upton didn’t start slow and actually became good enough to allow another team to justify taking that contract. 
 

On the topic of Upton, I still can’t believe the angels just flat out gave him more money without even calling his bluff on the opt out. Masterful negotiating.

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26 minutes ago, Shelton said:

And he would have if he didn’t spend the early part of that 2016 season pitching like crap. I’m pretty sure that was the year where he said “just you wait” or “don’t doubt me, it’s coming” or something like that right before he went on his tear.

It was.  Against Cleveland in May. It may have been a tweet he responded to from an Indians fan. 
 

I’m just trying to fight this narrative I see that seems to suggest he turned it around in the middle of 2017 then the Astros made him elite again.  He was well on that path already.  

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29 minutes ago, Oblong said:

It was.  Against Cleveland in May. It may have been a tweet he responded to from an Indians fan. 
 

I’m just trying to fight this narrative I see that seems to suggest he turned it around in the middle of 2017 then the Astros made him elite again.  He was well on that path already.  

True. But you also gotta fight the narrative that he was an elite trade asset in mid 2017, because he was not good during the first half of that season. 
 

If he started 2017 where he left off in 2016 and the way he pitched in late July and August of 2017, the tigers would have likely had their pick of elite prospect packages in late June/ early July from a number of teams. Maybe the cubs are sending Eloy our way. Maybe the dodgers are willing to trade a couple of their elite prospects. Maybe the Astros are willing to part with their top top prospects. 
 

As it was, and as we have covered in this thread already, he pitched himself into a tradeable asset in August. Let’s not forget that he cleared waivers in August, either.

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37 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

He was elite at the time of the trade.

The Astros had more information / analytics and it impressed him.

This seems to fit the facts the best.  Sorry, I didn't recall that he had pitched 7 lights-out starts out of 8 leading to the trade until I looked at the game log yesterday.

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