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2021 MLB Draft (FUBAR for KUMAR)

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I think full stop was apt.  I don't think it is some kind of treat or reward for a team to lose 100 games and get the #1 pick.  I very strongly suspect it is embarrassing to all involved.

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I really don't care about lotteries or not. The top 5 pick is the easiest part of the job. The draft slots are capped and the percentages are that you'll get a good player. 

It's the rest of the job where Avila has failed miserably.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I certainly could be naive here, but I look at the Tigers and basically I see a decade or more of crappy drafting / development coming to roost.

I don't think that it is due to them trying to tank or fail.  But that is me.

If anything, they (like the Red Wings) hung on to aging assets too long to start their rebuild, so they didn't get optimal returns.  Some want to knock them now on the premise they aren't trying hard enough, and while I get the frustration (I am frustrated as well), I would argue that is partially as a consequence of that earlier decision to try to win as long as possible.

also, the comparison to Cleveland is timely, who in general let top $cost players leave instead of paying them top dollar.

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2 hours ago, tiger337 said:

 I am not suggesting every team goes into the lottery, just the bottom 5 to 10 teams. 

Why? For what purpose? What would it change?

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7 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Why? For what purpose? What would it change?

It would change the perception that teams are tanking as suggested by the thread title.  It's not a big deal, just a personal preference.   

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

To not reward failure.

yes

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

I think it's more to save money than trying to lose.  Either way, not trying is not something that I think should be rewarded.

This. I fully believe AA was told to bring down salary and maintain financial restraint. Of course he doesn't have Mike Illitch telling him to win and calling Boras every night before their baths

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2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

In fairness, the world has changed.  Teams have stopped surrendering top prospects for rentals, which was unfortunately timed to our fire sale.  The Verlander trade hasn’t worked out, yet, but still could. 

Don't forget Parades and W Castro. Still some hope

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3 hours ago, 1776 said:

Avila is a dud. He and Gardenhire need to be gone.

He did finally bring metrics into the equation along with at least some lip service on improving player development. He inherited old, overpaid garbage on long term contracts in a context of teams hanging onto their top prospects. While I don't think he has done anything remarkable, I don't see what more he could have done. I'd give him more time and I think Chris I. likely will

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58 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

It would change the perception that teams are tanking as suggested by the thread title.  It's not a big deal, just a personal preference.   

MLB has been holding drafts for 50 + years now.

Has there been a concern at the league level that teams are intentionally losing to get a better pick?

I don't recall it if it has been a concern, but I really haven't paid attention either.

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9 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

MLB has been holding drafts for 50 + years now.

Has there been a concern at the league level that teams are intentionally losing to get a better pick?

I don't recall it if it has been a concern, but I really haven't paid attention either.

I think it has become a concern among fans in recent years because it seems that every bad team wants to be the new Astros.  Scouting has also gotten better so that high picks are more certain than they used to be.  

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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I think it has become a concern among fans in recent years because it seems that every bad team wants to be the new Astros.  Scouting has also gotten better so that high picks are more certain than they used to be.  

This is correct. 

Scouting has improved where it makes so much more sense to be really awful than pick 9th. The money has also changed the game, where it doesn't make sense to spend $100 million just to win 75 instead of 65 as it really doesn't impact attendance all that much to be not good instead of bad. 

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3 hours ago, kdog said:

I really don't care about lotteries or not. The top 5 pick is the easiest part of the job. The draft slots are capped and the percentages are that you'll get a good player. 

It's the rest of the job where Avila has failed miserably.

This has been my point exactly. Any empty suit can watch his team finish last every year and then grab one of the top picks. Avila’s gotten pretty good at it. In fact, he did really well this year and I’m impressed.
Outside those top draft picks over the past several years, the Tigers really don’t have anything to get excited about. Avila is going to have to start earning his money soon through trades and FA signings. I don’t have much confidence in the guy when it gets to that point. 

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I think with advanced stats teams have a better understanding on just how much value a particular player brings or adds to their win total which is why you have more horrible teams and less mediocre ones. 

Before I think if say you were a 70 win team you thought a couple good fa acquisitions could bring you to that playoff contender spot when in reality you're probably gonna need alot more than that(unless they were true superstars) so instead of upgrading the team to 75 wins or 80 if everything goes right they just do the bare minimum and see what happens which usually results in the team getting worse. 

People like to point at the Astros but they weren't the first team to do this.   Personally I think the Rays deserve just as much credit.  Before them many in the industry didn't think it was possible to compete in the AL East without spending a ton of money but they proved that theory wrong in part due to them just being terrible for years and building through the draft. 

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10 hours ago, tiger337 said:

It would change the perception that teams are tanking as suggested by the thread title.  It's not a big deal, just a personal preference.   

I think you generally muck things up when you react to perception, rather than reality.

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To be fair, fans talking about something isn't the same as teams doing the something.

Drew Sharp used do a segment or bit where he would conflate fans being overconfident in call-in radio with the team or individual athletes.  Sorry, IMO, just because some fans think something might be happening is not a terribly compelling reason to make a change.  I'd suggest it is possible a similar percentage of fans will think the lottery is rigged in the hypothetical.

In any event, if it truly is an issue, then the league should actually gather some evidence and demonstrate it rather than rely on some nebulous 'people are saying' claim and tie that into a concern of fan perception being negatively impacted solely because that path is easier and 20 of the 30 teams at the time will go along with a proposed change because they won't be negatively impacted in the short term.

Or, here, if proving a team tanked (or is tanking) is hard (which it is) and fan perception is truly a concern, surely it is possible to demonstrate that based on survey data - and - adopting a lottery would significantly improve fan perception?

Maybe fan perception is bad, but I want to see some actual data or evidence of a thing before accepting it as fact.

 

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If teams tanking leads to fans getting excited about draft picks, I don't think the league would see it as a problem.  Their only goal is to make money.  If fans think think that a team losing is a good thing, that allows teams to save money.  

Another case of fan perception being important was steroids.  The teams never did anything about steroids because home runs were bringing in more fans.  It only became a problem when fans found out that a lot of players were taking steroids.  Then the fans perceived that all the home runs were being hit because of steroids and it became a problem.  

 

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Its so much a problem its a positive for the league?

I understand and respect why you don't like it in principle, but it is starting to sound like pretzel logic.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Its so much a problem its a positive for the league?

I understand why you don't like it in principle, but you are starting to argue yourself into knots over it.

It could be a positive for the league if it allows them to make more money.  

It's not an argument.  It's a discussion.  I am sorry for the interruption though.  Let's go back to the main theme of the thread which is  the Tigers being FUBAR so they can get Kumar!     

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I just like to add is there any real evidence that teams are tanking for better picks or just the fact that they won't want to spend money/waste service time only to be mediocre?  

If there was a correlation in attendance figures or fan interest between being terrible or merely just bad then perhaps teams would operate differently but evidently there isn't. 

 

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

It's not an argument.  It's a discussion.

I meant a logical argument.

I'm not angry, I don't get the sense you were angry.

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