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2021 MLB Draft (FUBAR for KUMAR)

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On 8/8/2020 at 12:49 PM, tiger337 said:

I would be in favor of some kind of lottery every year maybe involving the bottom 10 teams.  I do not believe in rewarding ineptness.

I think an interesting system would be the team with the best record that missed the playoffs should get the #1 pick.  Reward teams that are trying to make the playoffs instead of franchises like Detroit who just put a nearly unwatchable product out on the field for 7 or 8 years.

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I don't think it would be particularly interesting and it presumes the reason teams don't improve is because they both aren't adequately motivated but would become motivated if the #1 pick were tied to having the best record and not make the playoffs.

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On 8/8/2020 at 12:49 PM, tiger337 said:

I do not believe in rewarding ineptness.  

I don't believe in it either, but I guess I don't get what it means as it pertains to the MLB draft.

The reward for not being inept is playoff gate, which is a huge financial incentive.

Getting the top draft pick has something like a 50% chance of *not even contributing at the major league level*, and if the guy does contribute, he has just as good a chance (if not better) to be a Tony Clark type player (not to bag on Tony - he had a fine career, but he was not a star) as an honest to goodness star.

The reason the worst team gets the top pick isn't to reward the team, it is to help the team become competitive.  Full stop.  And, again, in MLB the *reward* of a top pick really isn't that great as opposed to the 3rd pick or the 5th pick most seasons, **nor is it nearly as great as making the post-season**.

Giving top picks to anyone but the worst teams makes about as much sense as taxing poor people at 80% to motivate them not to be poor.  It both presumes the issue is lack of motivation and taking away opportunity is somehow going to help affect a positive change.

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I would also add, as a parent, youth coach, and someone responsible for developing young professional talent at my organization, withholding something or threatening punishment to change a behavior is usually not a particularly effective way to affect a positive *long-term* change.

9 times out of 10, people want to do the right thing, want to do good work, and if they aren't, there is usually a constraint / something holding them back that isn't as easily resolvable as taking, or threatening to take, something away.  Usually a good solution requires much more time, care and consideration than that.

This is precisely the hard part of being a good parent, coach, manager, and/or teacher.  If it were as easy as threatening to take something away every time there was a negative outcome, everyone would be good at it.

So based partially on my personal experiences, when I hear of schemes to motivate a positive result with a negative action, or the threat of a negative action, I have my doubts it will achieve the desired result.

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I agree with mlb, but in the nba franchises have openly acknowledged tanking. Apples and oranges, as 1 nba player can immediately make an impact, but it goes to the point some professional sports franchises will tank for a chance at a higher pick

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No argument.  Teams have the capability to do it, just as somebody has murdered, so it goes to the point I am (or anyone else is) capable of murdering.

I guess I feel as though, similar to crime, a team shouldn't be punished for tanking unless they could be shown to have actually done something untoward.

Or at a minimum actually establish there is a real reason or pattern to have that concern before devising ways to disincentive the possibility, because any implementation of such a plan will necessarily come at the expense of teams that both need some help and are legitimately trying.  Look no further than the Red Wings this season.

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I certainly could be naive here, but I look at the Tigers and basically I see a decade or more of crappy drafting / development coming to roost.

I don't think that it is due to them trying to tank or fail.  But that is me.

If anything, they (like the Red Wings) hung on to aging assets too long to start their rebuild, so they didn't get optimal returns.  Some want to knock them now on the premise they aren't trying hard enough, and while I get the frustration (I am frustrated as well), I would argue that is partially as a consequence of that earlier decision to try to win as long as possible.

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I agree. I and many others were vocal about wanting their rebuild to begin sooner. While DD was at times a wizard with trades he also maintained an unsustainable system, partly because of Mike Illitch, and partly because he remains antiquated. Boston figured that out much sooner

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4 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Doris Kearns Goodwin will tell us where she was when it was announced they would get the #1 pick and how it symbolized a trans-formative moment in her life.

Dan Okrent will somehow find a parallel of the Sox getting the pick and something Ty Cobb allegedly did to reinforce just how much of an embarrassment Dan considers Ty Cobb to be to baseball.

Stephen Jay Gould will make a posthumous comment about how devastating it was for the Yankees to not get the pick, but he, and they, will find a way to forge on.

"Hey little red," they shouted at me from the butcher's shop, "congratulations on getting the #1 pick."  It was at that moment I knew that baseball and the Boston Red Sox were a part of the woven quilt that would become my life.  From that day forward, whenever someone mentioned that there was a "draft" coming through the window, as the wind does in the way that all New Englanders know, I looked at the sky and knew that Ted Williams was looking down on me and smiling with his impish grin.

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They called her ragamuffin at the butcher's, didn't they?  I can't believe I still remember that story from 25 years ago or whatever.

I mean, it ain't like Charlie Murphy's story about playing basketball with Prince back in the 80's.

EDIT: She was called Ragmop at the butcher's.

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7 minutes ago, leflore said:

I agree. I and many others were vocal about wanting their rebuild to begin sooner. While DD was at times a wizard with trades he also maintained an unsustainable system, partly because of Mike Illitch, and partly because he remains antiquated. Boston figured that out much sooner

DD was really bad toward the end of the run, but when he traded MLB players for prospects, the guys he got back in return werent that bad.

Unlike Avila, who has not had one prospect turn out to be a really good player yet.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

They called her ragamuffin at the butcher's, didn't they?  I can't believe I still remember that story from 25 years ago or whatever.

I mean, it ain't like Charlie Murphy's story about playing basketball with Prince back in the 80's.

when it came out, I thought it was interesting and I liked to watch it.  Like most people outside of New York, I thought they didn't do as much on my team as I thought they could have (and ignoring the Tigers and the riots of 68 to ******* Bob Gibson for 10 minutes was ridiculous and missing a really good story, IMO).

It's hard for me to watch it now because it's so damn schmaltzy and so full of east coast navel gazing.  One good thing came out of it for me: that series really made me start to hate the Red Sox, which is now a life long passion.

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Just now, Buddha said:

DD was really bad toward the end of the run, but when he traded MLB players for prospects, the guys he got back in return werent that bad.

Unlike Avila, who has not had one prospect turn out to be a really good player yet.

Part of that is because teams changed how they view their own prospects and the value of team control. I'm sure AA attempted to get more value for JD, JUp, Castellanos etc, but teams just wouldn't give it. This seemed to change right about the time AA took over.

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Just now, Buddha said:

when it came out, I thought it was interesting and I liked to watch it.  Like most people outside of New York, I thought they didn't do as much on my team as I thought they could have (and ignoring the Tigers and the riots of 68 to ******* Bob Gibson for 10 minutes was ridiculous and missing a really good story, IMO).

It's hard for me to watch it now because it's so damn schmaltzy and so full of east coast navel gazing.  One good thing came out of it for me: that series really made me start to hate the Red Sox, which is now a life long passion.

Funny you mention that - one multiple occasions I started a letter to Burns to let him know how he completely whiffed missing the '68 tigers and how they helped unite a city torn apart. Always ended up with too much profanity so I never sent it

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1 minute ago, leflore said:

Part of that is because teams changed how they view their own prospects and the value of team control. I'm sure AA attempted to get more value for JD, JUp, Castellanos etc, but teams just wouldn't give it. This seemed to change right about the time AA took over.

Both sides of this argument have been done to death on this site.  Suffice to say that I am in the anti-Avila camp.  His trades have been awful.  Either he can't identify talent in other organizations, he cant set up an organization to develop talent properly, or he doesn't know how to correctly value his own assets (see Matt Boyd for the latest example or failing to trade someone at the optimal time).

Hopefully the Tigers recent prospects turn out.  People seem to like the players we've drafted in the top 5 the last few years, which one would hope that any GM could turn those picks into player.

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Avila is a dud. He and Gardenhire need to be gone.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I don't believe in it either, but I guess I don't get what it means as it pertains to the MLB draft.

The reward for not being inept is playoff gate, which is a huge financial incentive.

Getting the top draft pick has something like a 50% chance of *not even contributing at the major league level*, and if the guy does contribute, he has just as good a chance (if not better) to be a Tony Clark type player (not to bag on Tony - he had a fine career, but he was not a star) as an honest to goodness star.

The reason the worst team gets the top pick isn't to reward the team, it is to help the team become competitive.  Full stop.  And, again, in MLB the *reward* of a top pick really isn't that great as opposed to the 3rd pick or the 5th pick most seasons, **nor is it nearly as great as making the post-season**.

Giving top picks to anyone but the worst teams makes about as much sense as taxing poor people at 80% to motivate them not to be poor.  It both presumes the issue is lack of motivation and taking away opportunity is somehow going to help affect a positive change.

There are no no full stops on MTS!  Isn't it also important for the third worst and fifth worst teams to become competitive?  I am not suggesting every team goes into the lottery, just the bottom 5 to 10 teams. 

It's true that the average first pick is not much better than the average 5th pick, but I think the first pick is a little more likely to produce a franchise type player even though it usually won't.  

In real life, I favor helping those in need,  but sports can not be compared to poor people and taxes.  Sports is all about competition.  It's a bunch of big businesses competing with each other.  They can try to improve competitive balance, but I am not in favor of the worst team automatically getting rewarded with the top pick.  

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

 

I don't think that it is due to them trying to tank or fail.  But that is me.

This organization has done nothing but tank for the last two years. You can say they’re not trying to fail, but at the say time they’re not trying to win. To me, that’s tanking for the higher draft pick.

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3 minutes ago, 1776 said:

This organization has done nothing but tank for the last two years. You can say they’re not trying to fail, but at the say time they’re not trying to win. To me, that’s tanking for the higher draft pick.

I think it's more to save money than trying to lose.  Either way, not trying is not something that I think should be rewarded.

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53 minutes ago, Buddha said:

DD was really bad toward the end of the run, but when he traded MLB players for prospects, the guys he got back in return werent that bad.

Unlike Avila, who has not had one prospect turn out to be a really good player yet.

In fairness, the world has changed.  Teams have stopped surrendering top prospects for rentals, which was unfortunately timed to our fire sale.  The Verlander trade hasn’t worked out, yet, but still could. 

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52 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

There are no no full stops on MTS!  Isn't it also important for the third worst and fifth worst teams to become competitive?  I am not suggesting every team goes into the lottery, just the bottom 5 to 10 teams. 

It's true that the average first pick is not much better than the average 5th pick, but I think the first pick is a little more likely to produce a franchise type player even though it usually won't.  

In real life, I favor helping those in need,  but sports can not be compared to poor people and taxes.  Sports is all about competition.  It's a bunch of big businesses competing with each other.  They can try to improve competitive balance, but I am not in favor of the worst team automatically getting rewarded with the top pick.  

You'll love European soccer, where the same two teams compete for the title every year because they are the only ones who can afford the best players.

But hey, when you fail, you get really punished because you get kicked out of the league.

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What should the Tigers have done the past two seasons to be more competitive?

Realistically, how much better would they have performed if the proposed moves were executed?

Honest questions.

And no trading Ramon Santiago for in his prime Alber Pujols allowed.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

In real life, I favor helping those in need,  but sports can not be compared to poor people and taxes.

With all due respect, bull****.

Anything can be compared to anything else.  It all depends on how the comparison is framed whether it has merit or not.

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8 minutes ago, Buddha said:

You'll love European soccer, where the same two teams compete for the title every year because they are the only ones who can afford the best players.

But hey, when you fail, you get really punished because you get kicked out of the league.

That sounds extreme but, I will say that I am not a fan of too much parity in sports.  I like it when there are some good franchises that win most of the time and some bad franchises that struggle most years.  The good franchises become the enemies that everyone wants to beat. Then when of the weaker franchises does rise one year or for a few years, it's a really big deal.  

 I do like the idea of teams getting kicked down to a lower league if the fail.  I also know that would never happen here.  

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

With all due respect, bull****.

Anything can be compared to anything else.  It all depends on how the comparison is framed whether it has merit or not.

At least I didn't say full stop!

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