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84 Lives!!!

2021 MLB Draft (FUBAR for KUMAR)

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I don't expect much activity in here yet as, again, I'm being a bit premature on this... but...

I do love my draft talk (for the past 40 years...)!

The FUBAR for Kumar is pretty much a given at this point, not much to discuss there.

But one thing that does irk me and I wanna talk about it is any talk about a draft lottery in MLB. I've had enough of lotteries (especially after this year's Red Wings fiasco!) I have absolutely ZERO interest in a MLB lottery.

If there is any contention over this year's season being only 60 games and how that could distort next year's draft order; the only reasonable solution I see is to combine 2019 and 2020 records to determine the 2021 draft order. And I'm not just saying that because Detroit had the #1 pick last year. For all teams, from top to bottom, with 2020 being such a weird season: the only way I would feel a sense of fairness in determining 2021 would be to take the last full season - the closest approximation to where a team's talent level truly is - and add it to 2020. There may be a few exceptions (teams) that want something different, because they would benefit; but I believe the vast majority of teams would agree to a 2019/20 combination.

And if there's no combination of 2019/20 then, I'm all too happy to just go by 2020 records alone. Let the chips fall where they may.

Just my 2 cents.

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44 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I don't expect much activity in here yet as, again, I'm being a bit premature on this... but...

I do love my draft talk (for the past 40 years...)!

The FUBAR for Kumar is pretty much a given at this point, not much to discuss there.

But one thing that does irk me and I wanna talk about it is any talk about a draft lottery in MLB. I've had enough of lotteries (especially after this year's Red Wings fiasco!) I have absolutely ZERO interest in a MLB lottery.

If there is any contention over this year's season being only 60 games and how that could distort next year's draft order; the only reasonable solution I see is to combine 2019 and 2020 records to determine the 2021 draft order. And I'm not just saying that because Detroit had the #1 pick last year. For all teams, from top to bottom, with 2020 being such a weird season: the only way I would feel a sense of fairness in determining 2021 would be to take the last full season - the closest approximation to where a team's talent level truly is - and add it to 2020. There may be a few exceptions (teams) that want something different, because they would benefit; but I believe the vast majority of teams would agree to a 2019/20 combination.

And if there's no combination of 2019/20 then, I'm all too happy to just go by 2020 records alone. Let the chips fall where they may.

Just my 2 cents.

I don't think Kumar is a given.  

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I’d prefer some sort of blending of 2019 and 2020 records/finishes.  Would be fine with 2020 only. Vehemently opposed to a lottery.

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I would be in favor of some kind of lottery every year maybe involving the bottom 10 teams.  I do not believe in rewarding ineptness.  

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16 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I don't think Kumar is a given.  

At this point I think he is.

But obviously, that is subject to change over the next year or so... So it's not like that is written in stone.

I'm just going by current consensus.

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12 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I would be in favor of some kind of lottery every year maybe involving the bottom 10 teams.  I do not believe in rewarding ineptness.  

I prefer going by a team's record.

A team is what it's record says it is. If that team is so inept they have the worst record: they get the #1 pick.

In my book... that's FULL STOP.

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I hate lotteries. Meaning, I don't buy lottery tickets because I hate the gambling/ I hate the waste of money/ I hate the odds.

And I guess what happened to the Red Wings has me ornerier than usual. They were the worst team, they should get the #1 pick. Again, FULL STOP.

Except they are subjected to the NHL's lottery. Lotteries can go **** themselves. I hate them all.

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15 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I prefer going by a team's record.

A team is what it's record says it is. If that team is so inept they have the worst record: they get the #1 pick.

In my book... that's FULL STOP.

I will remember that!  

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So far I've seen that Law, Longenhagen and 1 of the pipeline guys(either Mayo or Callis, I get them mixed up) say that they would take Leiter at this point.    

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I could be okay with a lottery that made the odds much higher that the teams with the worst records picked early, higher than, say, the NHL model. More a small deterrent to tanking instead of an exercise in randomness.

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It will either be based on the 50-60 game records (if they play a full season), or a combination of the past two seasons. 
 

there will not be a lottery. 

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One reason MLB might not go the two-season route is that a lot of last year's records will be baked in to a 2021 draft order... with only 60 games or less played this year...

IE: Detroit was 7 games worse than Baltimore last year, and 10 worse than Miami... If Detroit goes 30-30 (currently 9-8), Baltimore has to go 22-38 (currently 11-8) to pass us by, Miami 19-41 (currently 9-4) to pass us by.

I mean, as a Tiger fan, I'm all for two years' records... MLB might not go that route.

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10 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

One reason MLB might not go the two-season route is that a lot of last year's records will be baked in to a 2021 draft order... with only 60 games or less played this year...

IE: Detroit was 7 games worse than Baltimore last year, and 10 worse than Miami... If Detroit goes 30-30 (currently 9-8), Baltimore has to go 22-38 (currently 11-8) to pass us by, Miami 19-41 (currently 9-4) to pass us by.

I mean, as a Tiger fan, I'm all for two years' records... MLB might not go that route.

It could be the average of the winning percentages instead.  

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The point that I was making is that MLB might not want to overweight the 2021 draft from the 2019 season... even as odd as the 2020 season is...

I'm thinking they might go with 2020 alone as whatever records happen this year happen. 

And yeah, percentage would seem to be the only way to go with 2020 records alone...

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4 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

The point that I was making is that MLB might not want to overweight the 2021 draft from the 2019 season... even as odd as the 2020 season is...

 

That's what I meant.  Add the winning percentages in 2019 and 2020 instead of adding wins.  That way, 2019 and 2020 would have the same weight.    

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Well the Tigers ain't gonna end up 30-30. If a catcher goes down on a contender I could see Romine getting flipped for a lower prospect and an emu. At this point I'll guess they play 54 games and end up 22-32. They're gonna have a hi draft pick regardless

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It’ll be a lottery of some sort.  Otherwise, they would have already determined and shared the plan, to avoid any second guessing after the season.  I’m sure the marketing idiots at MLB will delude themselves into believing that a live lottery broadcast would captivate hundreds of viewers.

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8 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

It’ll be a lottery of some sort.  Otherwise, they would have already determined and shared the plan, to avoid any second guessing after the season.  I’m sure the marketing idiots at MLB will delude themselves into believing that a live lottery broadcast would captivate hundreds of viewers.

I don't know.  They seem to be making **** up as they go along this season.  

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1 hour ago, leflore said:

Well the Tigers ain't gonna end up 30-30. If a catcher goes down on a contender I could see Romine getting flipped for a lower prospect and an emu. At this point I'll guess they play 54 games and end up 22-32. They're gonna have a hi draft pick regardless

i doubt any player on the tigers will be flipped for anything more than a C- prospect.  Fulmer maybe if people think he's healthy.  but that's really it.  maybe turnbull?

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Somehow the Red Sox will get the #1 pick. It'll be the main story in Ken Burns' next inning of Baseball. The Tigers will win 2 WS and not be mentioned

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Doris Kearns Goodwin will tell us where she was when it was announced they would get the #1 pick and how it symbolized a trans-formative moment in her life.

Dan Okrent will somehow find a parallel of the Sox getting the pick and something Ty Cobb allegedly did to reinforce just how much of an embarrassment Dan considers Ty Cobb to be to baseball.

Stephen Jay Gould will make a posthumous comment about how devastating it was for the Yankees to not get the pick, but he, and they, will find a way to forge on.

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