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Edman85

Electoral College Contest

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1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This is the map I see if Biden wins. I am not ready to give Arizona to Biden until I see it actually happen for an election cycle.

Dd089.png

I would call that the “4 corned beef sandwiches” election.   That analogy goes back to a documentary I saw on The Godfather.  James Caan said Coppola wanted him and Pacino and Duvall all along.  He had them to his house, his wife made corned beef sandwiches and they did screen tests. Studio still wasn’t impressed. They made him do a bunch of tests with guys like Martin Sheen. Cost $500,000.  “After all that they ended up with 4 corned beef sandwiches”. 

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6 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I stand by this.

It is impossible for Trump to lose Florida.  

It may take the Florida GOP pulling off the biggest backroom criminal activity ever seen in an election but they will get it done by any means necessary.   

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30 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I stand by this.

I think this is as maxed out as it can get.

So... I'm calling the minimum at 319...

And guessing the final is somewhere between 319 and 416...

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57 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

It is impossible for Trump to lose Florida.  

It may take the Florida GOP pulling off the biggest backroom criminal activity ever seen in an election but they will get it done by any means necessary.   

All they have to do is throw mailed ballots into the river. Easy peasy. I mean, s***, Donald Trump basically told them to do exactly that.

We can probably expect much of the same in Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia, states with high Biden poll numbers that are all completely controlled by Republicans. Although they might have some trouble finding a flowing river in Arizona.

As for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the state legislatures will mobilize for war against the commie liberal governors to ram Trump down the throats of that majority of voters who cast their ballots for Biden over Trump.

Trump and his quislings have spent the entire year trashing the integrity of the electoral process, and this will be where the rubber meets the road.

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15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Trump and his quislings have spent the entire year trashing the integrity of the electoral process, and this will be where the rubber meets the road.

And don't think that hasn't worked. All the elderly people I talk to - all voting for Trump by the way - swear that voting by mail is "rigged" even tho they have voted by mail for years - and voted by mail for Trump last election with no problems or discussion.

If Trump doesn't win - it won't be him alone saying the election was rigged - it will be his followers as well - even if they are in their 70's and 80's.

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8 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

And don't think that hasn't worked. All the elderly people I talk to - all voting for Trump by the way - swear that voting by mail is "rigged" even tho they have voted by mail for years - and voted by mail for Trump last election with no problems or discussion.

If Trump doesn't win - it won't be him alone saying the election was rigged - it will be his followers as well - even if they are in their 70's and 80's.

Absolutely none of the older people I talk to think this.

None.

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20 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

And don't think that hasn't worked. All the elderly people I talk to - all voting for Trump by the way - swear that voting by mail is "rigged" even tho they have voted by mail for years - and voted by mail for Trump last election with no problems or discussion.

If Trump doesn't win - it won't be him alone saying the election was rigged - it will be his followers as well - even if they are in their 70's and 80's.

My mom is in her eighties and just voted Biden/Harris plus GOP for our senator.  Hers was less strategic.  She just disliked Cornyn's challenger more than she did him.  

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15 hours ago, Melody said:

My mom is in her eighties and just voted Biden/Harris plus GOP for our senator.  Hers was less strategic.  She just disliked Cornyn's challenger more than she did him.  

Yep. There will be some Biden/Cornyn voters here,  just as there were probably some Beto/Collier/Nelson/Abbott voters... there could be as much as 4-5% difference.

17 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I stand by this.

I don't know that I will ever get there on making Texas blue.

The projected turnout increase (possibly 1-2 mil more voters) makes it more unpredictable, but having lived here a while, almost need to see it to believe it 

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15 hours ago, The Ronz said:

And don't think that hasn't worked. All the elderly people I talk to - all voting for Trump by the way - swear that voting by mail is "rigged" even tho they have voted by mail for years - and voted by mail for Trump last election with no problems or discussion.

If Trump doesn't win - it won't be him alone saying the election was rigged - it will be his followers as well - even if they are in their 70's and 80's.

Ronz, you need to meet some new people.  😉

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15 hours ago, smr-nj said:

Absolutely none of the older people I talk to think this.

None.

People crap on polling a lot, but they are still more accurate than making global conclusions based on one's own universe of friends/acquaintances.

Qualitative info isn't bad, but its better when it is paired with quantitative info, since it's almost impossible for any one person to know everyone from every demo in a single state

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47 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

People crap on polling a lot, but they are still more accurate than making global conclusions based on one's own universe of friends/acquaintances.

Qualitative info isn't bad, but its better when it is paired with quantitative info, since it's almost impossible for any one person to know everyone from every demo in a single state

Nicely put.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

People crap on polling a lot, but they are still more accurate than making global conclusions based on one's own universe of friends/acquaintances.

Qualitative info isn't bad, but its better when it is paired with quantitative info, since it's almost impossible for any one person to know everyone from every demo in a single state

Egg-zactly 

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Ronz, you need to meet some new people.  😉

I agree! :)

 

 

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On 10/23/2020 at 3:02 PM, Edman85 said:

I stand by this.

now that is a beautiful map.

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51 minutes ago, Buddha said:

feeling optimistic today.

Screenshot_20201028-135532_Chrome.jpg

I'm getting close to thinking that Georgia may end up to the left of Florida and NC... the late movement just has a Virginia 2008 feel to it 

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 I am not feeling really confident because I expect the Trumpers to work hard to steal it.  I still expect Biden to win though:

 

xk91B.png

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

T-Bomb... you've got Biden taking ALL of Maine?

 

Otherwise...

we're identical...

I had him taking all of Maine, because I couldn't figure out how to split it.  

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You have to click on the District (1 or 2) to shift the district one way or the other.

I believe it's their District 2 that is firmly in the Red...

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On 10/23/2020 at 4:02 PM, Edman85 said:

I stand by this.

I'd prefer a shutout, but I could get by with that.

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image.png.b8b59170cb05db09f886cd11356e542e.png

Final map.

Thoughts:

  • The Upper Midwest comes back to the Dems, and it's not particularly close.
  • Florida is Florida, there are concerns with parts of the electorate for Biden (particularly Miami-Dade), but ultimately he gains a lot of votes along the I-4 Corridor and in Duval County, and keeps margins reasonable in other parts of the state.
  • Georgia seems to be trending toward Biden, and the fact that they are sending Obama there (as opposed to an Upper Midwestern state) today seems to confirm this.
  • Ann Selzer's poll may very well be an outlier, but she's the best and Iowa going with Trump reflects that on this map.
  • Texas very well could flip, there are a lot of reasons to believe it does, but I need to see it to believe it.

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