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Electoral College Contest

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1 minute ago, ROMAD1 said:

Bloody SC fight might just generate this map.

South Carolina may be one to watch. With Harrison and Graham close, that could be a surprise. 

Also, has there been any polls in the Alaska senate? Sullivan won by a slim margin last time so is his seat competitive? Don't hear much about that race. 

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1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

South Carolina may be one to watch. With Harrison and Graham close, that could be a surprise. 

Also, has there been any polls in the Alaska senate? Sullivan won by a slim margin last time so is his seat competitive? Don't hear much about that race. 

Supreme Court...sorry

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5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

South Carolina may be one to watch. With Harrison and Graham close, that could be a surprise. 

Also, has there been any polls in the Alaska senate? Sullivan won by a slim margin last time so is his seat competitive? Don't hear much about that race. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

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11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

South Carolina may be one to watch. With Harrison and Graham close, that could be a surprise. 

Also, has there been any polls in the Alaska senate? Sullivan won by a slim margin last time so is his seat competitive? Don't hear much about that race. 

Speaking about the Alaska Senate race.  The Lincoln Project folks were being very optimistic (in the sense that it was probably propaganda) about that race.  They say that Alaska is actually very pro-Choice despite its strong GOP lean.

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1 minute ago, ROMAD1 said:

Speaking about the Alaska Senate race.  The Lincoln Project folks were being very optimistic (in the sense that it was probably propaganda) about that race.  They say that Alaska is actually very pro-Choice despite its strong GOP lean.

IIRC, both Murkowski and Sullivan got less than 50% of the vote. Alaska is more moderate. It doesn't have the bible thumpers like in the south. 

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On 7/18/2020 at 8:26 AM, Edman85 said:

I had an idea for a fun game: predict the electoral college. Most electoral votes* correct wins.

*As voted on by the electorate. For example, if you get Michigan correct and a faithless elector votes for somebody else, you still get all 16 points. Use 270towin.com .

I figure we do four different contests: Deadline August 1, September 1, October 1, November 2.

Lets Bump.

This will essentially be my October 1.... I'll update on November 2 if anything changes.

 

image.png.5d062f71df063dc5266bb5a1d15eb67f.png

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and not to be thread police but let's try to keep this to predictions and keep the some of the talk in the other if we can.... obviously you can explain your reasoning and such.... I don't know.... I know there will be some overlap.  Not a huge deal.

 

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

and not to be thread police but let's try to keep this to predictions and keep the some of the talk in the other if we can.... obviously you can explain your reasoning and such.... I don't know.... I know there will be some overlap.  Not a huge deal.

 

Staying within these confines, Georgia/Iowa/Ohio/Texas are the hardest ones for me.... Iowa and Ohio because the polling seems more bullish toward Biden than my priors would expect, Georgia/Texas because the likelihood of higher turnout and demographic changes make them more unpredictable.

I probably would be less bullish on Georgia if the 50+1 rule that exists for Gubernatorial/Senator races was in effect for the Presidential, but it isn't, and Biden can win with 48-49%

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Staying within these confines, Georgia/Iowa/Ohio/Texas are the hardest ones for me.... Iowa and Ohio because the polling seems more bullish toward Biden than my priors would expect, Georgia/Texas because the likelihood of higher turnout and demographic changes make them more unpredictable.

I probably would be less bullish on Georgia if the 50+1 rule that exists for Gubernatorial/Senator races was in effect for the Presidential, but it isn't, and Biden can win with 48-49%

as an anxiety riddled pessimist, i am giving trump 2-3% in the polls.  i still dont trust my fellow americans even if all the relevant state polls show biden with slight edges.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

two weeks to go!

 

Screenshot_20201021-112027_Chrome.jpg

I think I had this as my bare minimum prediction a month or so ago...

I'm still leaving that as my lowest EC guess for Biden...

but in reality, I think he's heading to closer to 375+ at this point...

Per MTU's map... adding in Ohio, Iowa, NC, and even Georgia... maybe

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I'm feeling pretty optimistic on Texas. Texas is generally a low turnout state and I think after 2018 Democrats see they can compete. 

yNbyx.png

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2 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I think I had this as my bare minimum prediction a month or so ago...

I'm still leaving that as my lowest EC guess for Biden...

but in reality, I think he's heading to closer to 375+ at this point...

my bare minimum has him losing florida, arizona, wisconsin, and pennsylvania.

trump's bare minimum has him losing all the states above plus texas, ohio, north carolina, georgia, iowa, nebraska 2 and all of maine.  which is not out of the realm of possibility at this point, however unlikely.  so biden definitely has a higher floor and a higher ceiling.

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm feeling pretty optimistic on Texas. Texas is generally a low turnout state and I think after 2018 Democrats see they can compete. 

yNbyx.png

from your keyboard to god's ears.

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3 hours ago, Buddha said:

two weeks to go!

 

Screenshot_20201021-112027_Chrome.jpg

This map is defensible, as you said above, you may be taking a more glass-half-empty approach with the state polls.

The only real qualm that I have with it is Nebraska 2.... that may be the most guaranteed flip on the map.

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5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This map is defensible, as you said above, you may be taking a more glass-half-empty approach with the state polls.

The only real qualm that I have with it is Nebraska 2.... that may be the most guaranteed flip on the map.

maybe.  obama barely won it once and got beaten pretty badly there by romney the second time.  trump won it by 2 and a vast vast majority of the people who live there are white nebraskans.

i dont trust white nebraskans.

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Since Biden is sitting on a pile of cash, it probably wouldn't hurt to put up an ad or two in Omaha. The Omaha market also overlaps into Iowa so you be hitting two swing districts. 

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To me this is Trump's max:

3WlzX

 

This is my "if I had to bet $1000" map

87NpQ

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Buddha said:

maybe.  obama barely won it once and got beaten pretty badly there by romney the second time.  trump won it by 2 and a vast vast majority of the people who live there are white nebraskans.

i dont trust white nebraskans.

A lot of the confidence that I have comes down to Biden's standing / Trump's lack of standing with college-educated voters; when the Times polled the district (and found Biden leading by high single digits), Nate Cohn noted that if the district were its own state, it would be one of most college educated districts in the country.

When you couple with the urban core of Omaha (which resembles most larger cities, with decent sized AA population), it's just hard to see Trump winning there. But we'll see.... 

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4 minutes ago, Oblong said:

This is my "if I had to bet $1000" map

87NpQ

 

 

 

 

 

 

I"m saving that one for Nov 2 :)

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3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of the confidence that I have comes down to Biden's standing / Trump's lack of standing with college-educated voters; when the Times polled the district (and found Biden leading by high single digits), Nate Cohn noted that if the district were its own state, it would be one of most college educated districts in the country.

When you couple with the urban core of Omaha (which resembles most larger cities, with decent sized AA population), it's just hard to see Trump winning there. But we'll see.... 

the district is still over 80% white.

i dont trust it!  scott frost probably lives (or visits) there.  another reason not to trust it!

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Biden will end up with more votes than anyone in US history, easily 70M+ - surpassing Obama's 2008 total.

I predicted Hillary with over 400 EC votes in 2016 because I could not believe there was anyone who would vote for Trump. Still feel the same way.

image.png.e1b92d65a4bf747a07973562c9755a98.png

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The One Where Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona crap out on us.

image.png.dace0c9e9f2ed5cae1c618f63c753c8e.png

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This is the map I see if Biden wins. I am not ready to give Arizona to Biden until I see it actually happen for an election cycle.

Dd089.png

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3 hours ago, chasfh said:

The One Where Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona crap out on us.

image.png.dace0c9e9f2ed5cae1c618f63c753c8e.png

PA is solid Biden at this point... I don't see a way for them to crap out on us...

That means there's no possible way for Trump to win.

None.

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