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Edman85

Electoral College Contest

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I had an idea for a fun game: predict the electoral college. Most electoral votes* correct wins.

*As voted on by the electorate. For example, if you get Michigan correct and a faithless elector votes for somebody else, you still get all 16 points. Use 270towin.com .

I figure we do four different contests: Deadline August 1, September 1, October 1, November 2.

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28 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The Texas flip?  Alaska?

That's a bold move, my friend.

I suppose if the GOP bungle on CV19 situation is not enough to flip TX nothing can until the population shifts more

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34 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The Texas flip?  Alaska?

That's a bold move, my friend.

Both are roughly +1 to +3 for Trump in my very rudimentary projection. Won't take much, and I am erring on the side of Biden given Trump's woeful mishandling of COVID.

Could be wrong. Put your own map together and we can see who is more bold.

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zL1dY

My view at the moment, at least consevatively. 

North Carolina and Georgia are the hardest ones on here for me, I could go either way... I'm less bullish on TX, IA or OH. Although Texas is probably more gettable than even I expected it would be at this point.

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vacation travel through rural America will shake one’s confidence in a blue wave. 

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31 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

vacation travel through rural America will shake one’s confidence in a blue wave. 

One open question going into this upcoming cycle is whether Biden actually can win some margin back in rural counties of the Midwest (as well as other regions).. people so often focus on whether a county votes blue or red that they often lose sight of the fact that holding down margins in red counties can have a massive effect. Obama excelled in this area, where in 2016 Clinton, coming 80k votes short in three states, was demolished in rural areas.

The primaries are somewhat encouraging in this regard, but as Ed likes to point out, they arent all that predictive

Seeing Trump signs and enthusiasm in rural areas isn't, in and of itself, surprising at all, even now, it's just a question of if it is where it was four years ago or whether Biden as an opponent draws the kind of visceral reaction that Clinton did.

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14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One open question going into this upcoming cycle is whether Biden actually can win some margin back in rural counties of the Midwest (as well as other regions).. people so often focus on whether a county votes blue or red that they often lose sight of the fact that holding down margins in red counties can have a massive effect. Obama excelled in this area, where in 2016 Clinton, coming 80k votes short in three states, was demolished in rural areas.

The primaries are somewhat encouraging in this regard, but as Ed likes to point out, they arent all that predictive

Seeing Trump signs and enthusiasm in rural areas isn't, in and of itself, surprising at all, even now, it's just a question of if it is where it was four years ago or whether Biden as an opponent draws the kind of visceral reaction that Clinton did.

bigots are empowered by Trump is one takeaway 

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i’ve also seen enough to make me think Biden wins in a boat race  Best examples so far are:

—flag at half staff at my Home Depot this morning for John Lewis

—random BLM signs in corn field in Maryland and on random signs in Detroit area.  

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13 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

bigots are empowered by Trump is one takeaway 

Perhaps. 

The margins are what I really think about in those areas. Trump is going to excel in rural areas, but what are the margins? Even a 3-4% improvement in performance by Joe over Hillary in the rural areas, given how the suburbs have been trending, would probably make it impossible for Trump to win.

It's possible he could do as bad or worse than Hills as well, but it's an open question for me.

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8 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

i’ve also seen enough to make me think Biden wins in a boat race  Best examples so far are:

—flag at half staff at my Home Depot this morning for John Lewis

—random BLM signs in corn field in Maryland and on random signs in Detroit area.  

I saw 3-4 Biden signs driving around in some neighborhoods in NW Tarrant County this morning... outnumbered by Trump signs, of course, but surprising given the significant R lean of that part of the county

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the John Garrity column i came across on NR discusses the fact that Trump is clearly getting his *** handed to him for real despite what your friend of a friend who has seen “the real polls” says, because otherwise they wouldn’t have to fire Parscale: whatever fig leaf they wrapped that dog doo in. 

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3 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

Banjo music?

it’s prominent Dixie flags

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1 minute ago, ROMAD1 said:

it’s prominent Dixie flags

Ugh.  It sounds like those areas will still be hopeless, decades from now.

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i drove around well-heeled Pentwater just now and noted a healthy mix of Biden and Trump yard signs.  very prominent that some folks with Trump signs in neighboring yards countered them with signs thanking essential workers and scientists. 

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This is not a projection, but this is the map using the 538 elasticity scores to adjust a uniform Biden +15.

XOBje.png

 

I caution against extrapolating outlier polls, though.

 

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On 7/20/2020 at 8:52 PM, Edman85 said:

This is not a projection, but this is the map using the 538 elasticity scores to adjust a uniform Biden +15.

XOBje.png

 

I caution against extrapolating outlier polls, though.

 

Bloody SC fight might just generate this map.

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