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bobrob2004

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bobrob2004 last won the day on April 22 2018

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About bobrob2004

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  • Birthday 04/12/1985

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  1. Mark Prior's stats look similar. Brandon Webb looked like he was going to have a Hall of Fame career and he was also done before age 30.
  2. Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #11 - Jordan M. Zimmermann What do you think that M. stands for? Michael? Matthew? Mabel? Did you ever notice that there are two ns at the end of his last name? Do you think his close friends call him “Dan” for short? How about “Danny?” Danny Mabel has been awful since putting on a Tigers uniform. In over 396 innings, he has a 5.24 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 10.5 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 6.4 K/9. Since 2016, Zimmermann has the 4th highest ERA, 10th highest FIP, and 11th lowest K/9 among starting pitchers. Not great, Bob. To be fair, Zimmermann’s 2018 season is the best one with the Tigers. He had his lowest ERA (4.52), highest strikeout rate (7.6 K/9) and the highest home run rate (1.9 HR/9). Ok, the last one is not so good. His season was mostly fueled by a good first half. 1st Half – 63 IP | 3.71 ERA | 1.127 WHIP | 8.7 K/9 2nd Half – 68 1/3 IP | 5.27 ERA | 1.390 WHIP | 6.6 K/9 Ah, those second half numbers is the Zimmermann we all grew to hate. Since joining the Tigers, Zimmermann has been dealing with neck injuries and the inability to make adjustments. What was different between these two splits? Well, Zimmermann had a sinker in the month of April, but then mostly abandoned it the rest of the year. Now, pitches are tracked not by grip, but by movement and velocity, so it’s possible that this “sinker” was really a 4-seamer with better movement (Verlander Is adamant that he doesn’t throw a cutter despite what the tracking says). Also, it doesn’t seem like the sinker played a major role in his performance anyway. So, what did change? Honestly, not much according to the deeper stats. His curveball was much more effective (.139 BAA in the first half and .364 BAA in the second half) and his pitches resulted in more fly balls (47.3% in the first half, 39.6% in the second half). Other than that, it looks like one was just a major fluke (or competitive advantage. The Tigers did have an easier schedule the first half of the year). Given his recent history, I’d say the first half was more of a fluke than the second half. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 155 IP | 8-11 W/L | 5.08 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 112 K | 38 BB ZiPS – 126 2/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.83 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 92 K | 29 BB THE BAT – 157 IP | 8-11 W/L | 4.47 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 127 K | 38 BB RotoChamp – 140 IP | 5-10 W/L | 4.89 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 105 K | 32 BB CBS Sports – 160 2/3 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.82 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 134 K | 39 BB ESPN – 140 IP | 6 W | 5.34 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 104 K | 32 BB FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A My Prediction: 2018 Prediction – 163 IP | 6-14 W/L | 5.69 ERA | 1.503 WHIP | 105 K | 43 BB 2018 Actual – 131 1/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.52 ERA | 1.264 WHIP | 111 K | 26 BB 2019 Prediction – 157 1/3 IP | 6-13 W/L | 5.49 ERA | 1.468 WHIP | 112 K | 38 BB
  3. What likely happened is that he was overcompensating for his knee by overusing his arm, until he blew it out. He probably rushed himself trying to get ready for opening day.
  4. New prediction for Micheal Fulmer: 0 IP | 0-0 W/L | 0.00 ERA | 0.000 WHIP | 0 K | 0 BB
  5. It's actually a 10-year extension, taking him through age 38. It's weird as it doesn't specify if they adding to the 2 years remaining or if they are nullifying the 2 years and replacing them with this new contract.
  6. And here I thought they cared about good defense this year.
  7. Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #10 - Jordy Joe Mercer In a lot of ways Jordy Mercer has the same struggles as Josh Harrison, coming over from the National League (both from the Pirates), likely past his prime being over the age of 30, and coming off an injury-shortened year. After appearing in at least 145 games in 2016-17, Mercer only appeared in 117 games in 2018. Also like Harrison, Mercer has been very consistent. In 4 of the last 5 seasons, Mercer has had between an 88-94 OPS+ (the other being a 69 OPS+). So at least we know what to expect from him. In 2017, Mercer hit a career high 14 home runs, a career high 9.1% walk rate, his highest ISO (.151) and SLG (.406) since 2013, and yet still pulled in a below average 93 OPS+. In 2018, he settled back into career norms: 2018 - .251/.315/.381/.696 Career - .256/.316/.383/.699 In 2018, Mercer had a career high 20% strikeout rate. I’d except that number to go up in the American League while facing unknown pitchers. Also in 2018, his line drive rate was a career high at 27.4%. I’d say that’s an anomaly and will go back to around 20% that he normally hits. Another oddity was his ground ball rate at 38.4% - a career low. Again, I would expect that to go back to around his career average of 48%. Even if he continues to hit more fly balls, I wouldn’t expect them to turn into home runs, not at Comerica Park. Speaking of home runs, despite a career high 34.2% fly ball rate in 2018, his HR/FB rate was at 5.7%, down from the two previous years of 10.9% and 7.9%. I wouldn’t expect much at all from Mercer on the field. Just like Harrison, he is here to fill the gap until someone in the minors is ready (everyone seems to love Willi Castro). Just like Harrison, Mercer’s main asset will be mentoring the young hitters, not his hitting ability. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 306 AB | .252/.320/.390 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 60 K ZiPS – 432 AB | .243/.307/.356 | 8 HR | 45 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 87 K THE BAT – 433 AB | .253/.315/.389 | 10 HR | 50 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 86 K RotoChamp – 430 AB | .253/.320/.388 | 9 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 39 BB | 83 K CBS Sports – 487 AB | .253/.319/.402 |11 HR | 51 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 117 K ESPN – 429 AB | .259/.321/.403 | 10 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 81 K FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A My Prediction: 2018 Prediction – N/A 2018 Actual – 394 AB | .251/.315/.381 | 6 HR | 39 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 87 K 2019 Prediction – 505 AB | .230/.285/.331 | 6 HR | 44 RBI | 2 SB | 35 BB | 121 K
  8. By signing veterans to $300 million contracts.
  9. The Tigers play 8 straight games to start the season before having an off day. That's weird, isn't it?
  10. Might as well trade Casey Mize now before his value goes downhill.
  11. Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #9 – Joshua Isaiah Harrison Josh Harrison had his worst season since his first couple of seasons last year, although that may be due to the plague of injuries he endured. His batting average was .250, the lowest since 2013; his OBP was .293, the lowest since 2013; and his SLG was .363, the lowest since 2012. Even in his best seasons, Harrison is really nothing to get excited about. 2014 was his best season, looks like a fluke with a 137 wRC+. That year he had an unsustainable .353 BABIP. He was only able to repeat the power once (13 HR, .175 ISO), in 2017 (16 HR, .160 ISO). Josh Harrison is supposed to be the Tigers’ leadoff hitter this year, but his highest stolen bases total was 19 and 18 (but it’s not like any one else on the Tigers’ roster can steal). His walk rate is constantly in the 4-5% range. Odd stat of the day: Harrison had 23 HBP in 2017, but no more than 7 in any other year. His highest walk total was 28, also in 2017. Every other year, his walk total was below the 23 HBP he had in 2017. Josh Harrison had 3 obstacles to overcome in 2019. First are his injuries. How healthy is he really? Second, switching from the National League to the American League. There is usually some adjustment period. Lastly, at 31 years old, Harrison is exiting his “prime” years (“prime” being relative). While his bad 2018 can be attributed to him not being fully healthy, there is some logic that he is just wearing down due to age. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 388 AB | .264/.315/.402 | 9 HR | 43 RBI | 6 SB | 22 BB | 74 K ZiPS – 424 AB | .257/.304/.377 | 9 HR | 44 RBI | 7 SB | 21 BB | 81 K THE BAT – 501 AB | .265/.316/.415 | 13 HR | 58 RBI | 9 SB | 30 BB | 95 K RotoChamp – 429 AB | .266/.313/.396 | 10 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 22 BB | 80 K CBS Sports – 499 AB | .263/.316/.419 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 8 SB | 27 BB | 115 K ESPN – 488 AB | .268/.313/.406 | 13 HR | 56 RBI | 10 SB | 23 BB | 88 K FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A My Prediction: 2018 Prediction – N/A 2018 Actual – 344 AB | .250/.293/.363 | 8 HR | 37 RBI | 3 SB | 18 BB | 68 K 2019 Prediction – 485 AB | .260/.296/.361 | 8 HR | 40 RBI | 11 SB | 22 BB | 104 K
  12. Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #8 – Cartier Niko Goodrum Normally I wouldn’t do bench players, but Goodrum is different this year. For the first time in a long time the Tigers do not have a traditional DH. John Hicks will get his fair share of AB there, but for the most part it will be a revolving door with Cabrera, Castellanos, Stewart, and Candelario with Goodrum filling in their normal positions. Goodrum will be seen as a “super” sub (even though there is nothing “super” about his stats) giving him a full seasons worth of PA without having a permanent position. Jack of all trades, master of none. The thing that sticks out to me is Goodrum’s inconsistency. In his first 64 PA, Goodrum hit .193/.281/.316. Then in his next 200 PA, he hit .278/.340/.506. Then in his next 146 PA, he hit .167/.247/.326. In his final 82 PA, he hit .347/.402/.533. Now most players go through hot and cold streaks, but with Goodrum they seem more pronounced. At 26 years old, 2018 was his first full season in the Majors. Overall he hit .245/.315/.432 with a very average 102 OPS+ and 103 wRC+. I believe Goodrum’s production sticks out more because the Tigers lack good hitters. Gardenhire likes to bat Goodrum in the 4-6 spots in the lineup, mainly due to his .187 ISO; only Castellanos had more power with a .202 ISO. I do question Goodrum’s power since he never had it that high in the minors. He had a .176 ISO in 207 PA in AA in 2016 and a .161 ISO in 499 PA in AAA in 2017. Maybe the better lights in the Majors made him see the ball better. He wouldn't be the first player to gain power after reaching the Majors. Goodrum’s walk rate was 8.5% last year, down from the 10-14% he showed most of the minors (although it was down to 6% in AAA). I can’t imagine it getting much higher than that. He also displays a high strikeout rate (26.8%) typical of a power hitter. He’ll probably suffer a little sophomore slump as his scouting report circulates around the league. But then again he’ll probably have a good month or two. Basically an inconsistent hitter that averages into, well an average-ish hitter. Nothing wrong with that. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 396 AB | .238/.301/.392 | 12 HR | 48 RBI | 9 SB | 34 BB | 114 K ZiPS – 435 AB | .230/.292/.391 | 14 HR | 50 RBI | 12 SB | 36 BB | 135 K THE BAT – 388 AB | .238/.305/.404 | 13 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 36 BB | 115 K RotoChamp – 425 AB | .242/.311/.426 | 15 HR | 49 RBI | 11 SB | 40 BB | 129 K CBS Sports – 457 AB | .260/.337/.466 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 14 SB | 48 BB | 130 K ESPN – 545 AB | .246/.307/.435 | 20 HR | 69 RBI | 13 SB | 46 BB | 160 K FanGraphs’ Fans (7) – 476 AB | .250/.316/.420 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 15 SB | 44 BB | 128 K My Prediction: 2018 Prediction – N/A 2018 Actual – 444 AB | .245/.315/.432 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 12 SB | 42 BB | 132 K 2019 Prediction – 460 AB | .228/.303/.420 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 10 SB | 46 BB | 134 K
  13. Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #7 – Tyson William Ross The Tigers hope Tyson Ross can become this year’s Mike Fiers. Be good enough for the first half to trade for something at the deadline. Once upon a time, Ross was a really good pitcher. From 2013-2015 in over 516 innings, Ross had a 3.07 ERA, a 3.13 FIP, and averaged over a strikeout an inning. Then he suffered a shoulder injury that made him miss most of the 2016 season and hasn’t been the same pitcher since. In 2015, Ross threw his sinker almost 35% of the time with a 61.5% ground ball rate. He also had a 9.7 K/9 that year. I personally love that combination. However, it was his slider that is his best pitch with a .195 batting average against and 141 strikeouts in 338 AB during 2015. In 2018, it was still his best pitch with .200 batting average against and 84 strikeouts in 255 AB. He throws his slider more often than any other pitch (41% both in 2015 and in 2018) which may have led to his shoulder injury. In 2018 Ross only threw his sinker 6% of the time, instead throwing a more traditional 4-seam fastball. As a result, his ground ball rate was 45.9%, the lowest of his career. His HR/FB rate was 14%, the highest of his career. He didn’t have terrible results (4.15 ERA), but his FIP (4.39) and BABIP (.270) suggest he was on the lucky side. When he was traded to the Cardinals, they moved him to the bullpen, which he was much more effective (4.38 ERA as a starter; 2.66 ERA as a reliever). The Tigers view him exclusively as a starter. For 2019, it may be unreasonable to think that he can get back to his 2015 form. He has reinvented himself. Unfortunately, that probably means he will never be as good as he once was. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 91 IP | 4-7 W/L | 5.27 ERA | 1.56 WHIP | 65 K | 41 BB ZiPS – 117 1/3 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.68 ERA | 1.48 WHIP | 88 K | 53 BB THE BAT – 92 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.22 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 80 K | 37 BB RotoChamp – 146 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 118 K | 67 BB CBS Sports – 146 1/3 IP | 7-14 W/L | 5.23 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 122 K | 60 BB ESPN – 149 IP | 7 W | 4.65 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 117 K | 64 BB FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A My Prediction: 2018 Prediction – N/A 2018 Actual – 149 2/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.15 ERA | 1.296 WHIP | 122 K | 62 BB 2019 Prediction – 151 2/3 IP | 6-12 W/L | 4.57 ERA | 1.411 WHIP | 124 K | 67 BB
  14. I find it interesting on how so many people have such strong opinions on Brad Ausmus' managerial skills (or lack thereof). I think his biggest weakness was communicating to the media. He was a PR nightmare. Given the right group of players, he was able to reach the playoffs (as most managers would have), but his inexperience led to a quick exit. I think he learned a lot from his first year, but the talent pool he was given kept getting worse each year. I'm very interested to see how he does with the Angels.
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