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SeattleMike

MotownSports Fan
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Everything posted by SeattleMike

  1. Even if you Porcello out his blow up games the K/BB ratio is still pretty mundane. Obviously the Ks are still there but the walk rate... good grief. Nearly 4.5/9
  2. I tried to find the article again but couldn't. But thinking about it more I believe he only looked at the last 10 years or so. Probably should have relocated the article before posting.
  3. Saw a breakdown of the true 3 outcome trend. What it amounts to is roughly one fewer ball put in play per game from historical averages. I don't remember the HR totals exactly, but the results were less obtrusive that many would think, something like one more HR per team every 10 games or so.
  4. what happened to sportz? Was he banned?
  5. And the Astros at 29th. Plus, the Indians at 27th. What a difference two years can make.
  6. It's not poppycock to think the Tigers could contend in 2018. The rotation, which is already stabilizing this year, could be pretty solid next year. And I wouldn't bet against Cabrera having a huge bounce back season. Trade JD and Avila maybe for something useful in 2018, remove the two guys in the bullpen who have allowed 47 of the 154 runs scored on the pen, hope Castellanos can translate his high line-drive rate into hits and extra base power, re-sign Avila, work Stewart in has a DH and RF, and solve centerfield, maybe in the JD or Avila trades. One does not have to squint too hard to imagine a more pleasant outcome next year, even without spending a ton of money.
  7. There we're a lot of prospect fetishizers who sounded the alarm on this trade at the time. I believe Henning was a leading proponent of this viewpoint. That Cabrera was a year from free agency worried some as well. Of course Ilitch was not going to let Cabrera walk.
  8. The Tigers linked with a position prospect? This can't be right. And if you tell me he hits from the left-side then I'll know for sure it's all a joke.
  9. Holy crap. I knew the bullpen was dreadful and the stats back this up. AL Tiger pitching from the 7th inning on: Runs allowed (average per game): worst ERA: worst OPS against: worst, by a mile (Tigers .799 next worst Baltimore at .768. Blown saves: worst. What I can't find is where they rank in leads blown from the 7th inning on. I suspect that is the worst in the league as well. The surprising part is that the offense is just as bad. Here are AL ranks from 7th inning on: Runs: worst OPS: worst, by a mile (Tigers .633; Indians next worse at .673.) So nothing is working for this team late in games. I suspect late game offensive futility is just one of those things and it will probably improve, especially because overall the Tigers are 6th in runs scored and 5th in OPS. And I don't recall that being a consistent problem in the past. I wonder if the preponderance of right-handed bats makes comebacks more difficult, because most ace bullpen guys are righties?
  10. At game. Verlander looked damn good. Don't know what the **** happened on that pop up. Wind has died down. Perhaps Iglesias lost it in lights. This would be a gut punch loss.
  11. I also forgot that Cabrera was injured down the stretch of the 2013 season, statistically his greatest. He played hurt the last 6 weeks of the season, hitting only one home run after August 26 and posting a measly .729 OPS during September/October. If he had stayed healthy he was on pace to post one of the top 20 greatest offensive seasons in baseball history (using OPS+ as the measure). Unfortunately, the injury carried over into the postseason where he didn't do much (although he did hit 2 HRs). A healthy Cabrera may have made a difference in the 3 one-run games the Tigers lost to Boston in the ALCS, including that 1-0 Verlander loss in Game 3. But hey, you need some luck to win the WS and things just never lined up.
  12. Yes, 2014 was another lost opportunity. But something to consider about that year. Neither Verlander nor Cabrera were vintage. Verlander actually was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in 2014. And Cabrera's .895 OPS was his worst since 2008. Still should not have been swept, but the 2014 Tigers by playoff time were worse than the 2013 and 2012 teams.
  13. I agree. Ausmus is not the problem right now. Unless Joe Madden calls Avila and begs for the job I wouldn't bother making a change. Fix the damn player development system. That should be the biggest priority right now in this organization.
  14. I suspect by, oh, maybe 2020, you will be pining for those go-for-broke years.
  15. I really agree with this take, from top to bottom. He made the Tigers competitive again and won more trades that he lost, by a wide margin. He was the right man for the job in 2002. Of course later on, he also had a budget the envy of many of his peers in the business and spent it, for the most part, wisely. But he definitely didn't give a damn about depth, never could figure out the bullpen thing, and was at best indifferent to analytics. Frankly, DD got lucky in 2012-2014 with his rotation, which lost fewer starts to injury than just about anyone else in the game. If they had had a couple of guys miss large chunks of the season, as happens to most franchises, the Tigers may have missed the playoffs, cause there was nothing behind the top 5. I get that most franchises don't have much starting pitching depth. But most didn't have the budget he had. Others have cited the weak drafting and player development under DD. Hard to argue here. The other issue along these lines, and I don't know if this was a DD decision or what, but the Tigers lack of aggression in the international market is another reason the farm system has stunk for years. I hope that changes and soon.
  16. More than anything I'd like to see them change their approach to the draft. Go the Cubs route: emphasize position players. They are easier to project, less vulnerable to injury, and you can trade off your surplus for pitchers with a bit of a track record. Being more aggressive in the international market would be welcome as well. And it wouldn't hurt if they found the next Dave Duncan.
  17. No lineup with Cabrera, JD Martinez, Upton, Kinsler, and Castellenos will be 25 games out in August. If Victor has found his stroke and the catcher tandem retains even 75% of it's early season success then this part of half the game will be contender level. I also like this bench better than many recent ones. The other half is obviously the issue. The Tigers currently have allowed a full run more than the next worst team in the AL. This from pretty much the same staff that was middle of the pack last year. I feel good that things will improve here, if only because of progression toward the mean. No one has really gotten on a roll among the starters. History suggests more than a couple of guys will. The pen will also stabilize. Today notwithstanding, there are a couple of pieces emerging. And if Rodriguez is back up to 90 on his fastball he could be ready for a run of respectability. No this team is not the 2016 Cubs. Too many defensive issues, and baserunnig remains a bugaboo. But if a couple of things improve, perhaps Jimenez blossoms, and Zimmerman regains his old form the Tigers will be a tough out.
  18. Twenty-seven-year old who didn't even make the Sox Opening Day roster. Bullpens. Go figure.
  19. The way closers are used today just give me a guy who is stingy with walks and limits HRs and he'll likely get the job done. That was Todd Jones' approach and it usually worked--even though he rarely had clean outings. He made you string multiple hits, that stayed in the ballpark, together to score. But you don't want a guy like this to come in with men on base. The guys who inherit baserunners and prevent scoring should be the real high earners in the bullpen. Perhaps baseball is moving in that direction, with guys like Andrew Miller.
  20. I agree with this approach. When you consider all of the competing factors this strategy makes the most sense, especially if they continue to hold onto to their high picks drafts and maybe get more aggressive internationally
  21. I don't know sure but I suspect 337 was referring to stating pitching depth as opposed to drafting and developing pitchers. Heading into a season with just 5 starting pitchers, no matter how good they are, is just asking for trouble. You need a few spares (even if they are No. 5 types) that can be plugged in when the inevitable injury sidelines one or two of the starters.
  22. It's a bit strange, the timing at all. The Tigers tied for the 3rd best record in the AL over the last four months of the season (with Toronto). Only Texas, with it's epically abnormal record in one-run games, and the Indians, who ran away from the Central because of their highly-unlikely-to -repeat dominance of the Tigers, posted better records. Why the heck tear it down to begin a rebuild when the you have as good a shot as anyone to win it the next year. Going all Lynn Henning right now means maybe in a few years you're back, bigger and better than ever. Just as likely, though, it means a long stretch of mediocrity or worse. I frankly can't believe Illitch agreed to a plan that says punt on next year when next year offers such intriguing possibilities. He probably did agree to a longer range plan, one that likely starts post 2017, that limits free-agent signings and exorbitant extensions. And I believe that is what Avila was signaling.
  23. This many times over. A few smart trades and a 2-3 reasonably aggressive free agent signings and the Tigers should be in business again next year.
  24. Hitting sequencing, timely hitting, call it what you want but they have mastered the art. Good luck to them sustaining it. They must have one of the worst statistical profiles of any team sitting in first place after Memorial Day in long while.
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