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Posts posted by SeattleMike

  1. 4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

    Do you believe that this lineup could reach the playoffs at some point?  I don't.

    Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts with what should be top 5-10 picks the Tigers add an elite hitter or two who will anchor the lineup in the 2020s. You don't have to squint to hard to imagine a couple of the pitching prospects developing into high level staters. So between the draft and what they have in the system today there is a decent enough foundation to at least stay out of a 10-year death spiral. But to contend for championships they will need to make the most of these upcoming high draft picks and spend some money on the positions where the farm systems fails. I guess that is the great unknown. Will ownership spend when the time comes? 

  2. 1 hour ago, Shelton said:

    Kinsler will definitely be traded. There is no reason to keep him around if you have the ability to trade him. I guess he could still be here, but only if there are no teams showing any interest. I don't see him declining a trade this offseason. He has no interest in sticking around here for 2018. The return won't be great, but it will be something. 

    Iglesias is a guy that could stick around. He's still young enough and good enough that they could keep him if a good trade is not offered. He's a guy you could sign to an extension and can solidify SS for a number of years after this. But if a good trade is out there, it would be a good idea to take it. 

    Castellanos is similar to Iglesias in that regard. I think it will be harder to find a good deal for him, but he's got two years left so there is still a chance he can hit enough that you would want to extend him. But he needs to find a position and he needs to hit. 

    At the very least, the farm system is now the best it has been in as long as I can remember. The result of that hopefully is a more balanced major league team instead of stars and scrubs. So when they do decide to add some free agents, they could build a winner without necessarily having to spend big on star type players. 

    We will know how well that works in a few years. 

    The farm system is definitely better than it has been. Still lacks elite talent. But it's better. It's also much better than it was in the mid 90s when the last rebuild commenced. That is something that works against the narrative that the Tigers are about to enter another decade-plus period of total irrelevance. The second WC also provides ownership incentive for remaining somewhat competitive, because mediocrity in some years will equal contention and contention should equal more fans in seats. 

  3. 11 hours ago, sabretooth said:

    I'm sorry, is anybody ******* surprised at JD teeing off?  He's a world-class power hitter.

    I'm not here to argue that it was a bad trade but he is a great hitter.

    Who's surprised? Not me. It's just remarkable that a guy with his offensive skills was viewed so indifferently by most of the contenders. I get that sluggers are a dime a dozen currently. But Martinez is more than just steak, he's chateaubriand, and despite some defensive flaws he still would have added one or two wins to any contender.  Yet there was no interest. Funny thing is Arizona probably didn't even need him--but if the cost is so incredibly low and you have hole to fill why not pull the trigger. 

  4. How lucky is Arizona. They filled a big hole and gave up virtually nothing. Martinez with 4 homers tonite and 18 since the trade. He has 34 HRs in around 3 months. 

    Just bad timing I guess, if you believe the insiders. But it will be a while before I stop seething about this trade. To think that we traded Martinez and Upton and didn't get one top 100 or even top 200 prospect between the two of them is remarkable and maddening--regardeless of the circumstances. 

  5. 5 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

    We all know the Tigers will select a big pitcher who throws in the high 90s, but has poor command.  His upside is top of the rotation starter, but some think he is better suited to relief.  

    What they really need is another draft like the 2008 one. It was the apotheosis of DD's fetish for tall, hard-throwing PHPs with no command, except there was no pretense that these guys were going to be starters. Among all the lousy drafts under DD this was stands out for his sheer incompetence and lunacy.

  6. 21 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

    Because he provides some protection to Cabrera and isn't blocking anyone.  I really doubt they try and rush Gerber or Stewart, at least to start the season.  And his ability to attract fans on a one-year deal shouldn't be discounted.  I could see him end up with the White Sox, too, for the same reasons.

    Gerber is 25. He should be in the majors right now, especially given that the games don't matter one bit. If the Tigers feel like they'd be rushing him at this age then he is not someone worth investing in.

  7. 1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

    Not sure how many open spots we have on the 40-man roster--believe that neither Labourt nor Navarro were on it.

    After seeing the struggles of Jacoby Jones over the last year, I'd prefer to not rush Gerber or Stewart.  Tyler Collins has earned a call-up, though, and could provide decent production.  

    Gerber is 25. He has a .900 OPS this year against RHP. The Tigers need left-handed bats. He supposedly plays a decent outfield. There is no f..in reason he should still be in the damn minors, 40-man roster issues notwithstanding. 

    Candelario is 23. His OPS against RHP is .870. He needs to be here and to play right now. I honestly don't know what the thinking is with him, at all. 

  8. 12 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

    Not sure how many open spots we have on the 40-man roster--believe that neither Labourt nor Navarro were on it.

    After seeing the struggles of Jacoby Jones over the last year, I'd prefer to not rush Gerber or Stewart.  Tyler Collins has earned a call-up, though, and could provide decent production.  

    Yes, Jones has struggled. But frankly Stewart (23)  and Gerber (24) are not exactly young as prospects go. The Tigers are in full rebuild mode, offering the perfect opportunity to find out now just what they have in these in these two guys. 

  9. 1 hour ago, Casimir said:

    THE Efren Navarro?  Man, that's some consolation prize for the morning after trading Verlander away.

    I knew I should'of started with beer instead of coffee when I woke up today....

    Is there a reason Candelario is still in the minors? For god sakes give us a reason to tune into the damn games. Stick Nick in the outfield, bring up Jeimer to play 3rd, Gerber at the other corner outfield spot, and Stewart at DH some and let her rip. 

    • Like 3

  10. 1 hour ago, hammb said:

    See that's just it. I don't think it IS necessary. Does it maybe make us a better team in 3 years than we would be if we just let JV stick around? Sure, it probably does. But I don't think it's necessary either. Draft well, develop the talent. I find it impossible to believe that picking up these 3 prospects was the difference in the 2020 team winning or not winning.

    Again, it's not that I have a problem with the business aspect. I had no problems moving Price, Upton, Cespedes, etc. I get the business aspect of the game. I disagree that the business aspect or winning is always the primary concern for me, as a fan. JV is not just another player. He is the best player the Tigers have drafted in my lifetime. He is the best pitcher the Tigers have had in my lifetime. I expect those statements to remain true for a VERY long time. Watching him pitch has more value to me than a few wins in 2020, and I think a well run organization could build a future winner while still letting me watch him pitch in the meantime.


    If I were Avila, my first offseason move would be to fire Chadd and his underlings and make ridiculous, over the top offers to the best of the scouting and development folks in the Houston front office. That's where it must start. 

  11. 1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

    The pitcher is nice bit the other two are not very interesting to me..... which sucks because we need better positional prospects.

    And I'm not suggesting that Avila should have gotten a lot more just saying that this isn't a very inspiring haul.

    Cameron is very intriguing. Someone posted his numbers in the second half this year. Over his last 250 ABs at A- he's posting a 958 OPS. For a guy who also can play CF well above average (according to the scouts) that's at least promising. And he's still only 20, so not too old for that league. 

  12. 2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

    Verlander is one of the few I think might be in the Nolan Ryan category, actually.

    Exactly. If there is anyone in MLB today who profiles like Nolan Ryan it's Verlander. The guy is still throwing upper 90s after 90-100 pitches at age 34. I bet he remains effective for the next 6 years or so.

  13. 13 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

    Trying to think of who on the team is worth watching.

    McCann, Mahtook, Greene, Jimenez are because of their development.

    Fulmer, JV, and Upton because they are good.

    Anyone else? Maybe when Nick plays some RF.

    That Cabrera is not this list, and rightfully so, underscores what a tragic season this has been. 

  14. So where will Paredes be ranked entering next season? An 18-year old (and not an old 18; his birthday is February 1999) posting an OPS of almost .800 at A ball? With 11 HRs, a walk percentage of 8% and only 56Ks in 431 PA he has matched, or exceeded, the profile of many of this year's top 25 prospects, when they were 18. For me, he's the most exciting positional prospect the Tigers have had in years. Cabrera was not this good at 18 (he posted a .709 OPS at low A as an 18 year old). I get he isn't an elite defender and will probably not stick at SS. But I wonder if he could transition to 2nd base? I wonder if Microline has seen him play and if there are any glaring red flags relating to his hitting ability. 

  15. 3 hours ago, Shelton said:

    It's fine to have a negative view on Jeimer. He's unproven in MLB right now, so it's not easy to say how well he would do. 

    But he does have a 860 ops in aaa this year. Yeah it's the pcl but still. His MLB projection from zips is something like a 740 ops. That's better than Victor right now. Victor could rebound but he might not. Jeimer could do better or worse than his projection. 

    There is a good chance that Jeimer is a better hitter than Victor. He's likely a better fielder than Nick. You could improve the team by shifting nick to DH and putting Jeimer at third. Offense and defense both improve. 

    Victor is going to need to show that he can hit next year. I'm fine with starting off with him as long as he has a short leash. 

    For what it's worth Candalerio at AAA this year has a significantly better OPS at home (Iowa) than on the road: .936 vs .722. The Iowa Cubs park is considered a pretty neutral park on the off/def scale as well. So I'm not too worried about the PCL factor here. 

  16. 34 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

    Tigers losing 4-0 in the 1st. Smoky skies from forest fires a couple of hundred miles away makes outdoor exercise uncomfortable. The library has reduced Sunday hours in the summer. Vancouver's Pride Parade starts in 1 hour a block away from my home.

    C'mon, I'm running out of good options!

    BTW, thanks for sending that smoke all the way down to Seattle :-). Can't do much outside because of it.

  17. 40 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

    Yeah, Al was quoted as saying that King, the 3rd player in the deal, would have had a 2nd round grade in the Tigers mind if he were draft eligible.

    Maybe they should have kept JD, but what they got was waaaay better than a 4th round pick.

    I guess if the Tigers really considered King the equivalent of a second round pick then I understand why they pulled the trigger. The other two guys are, as Dave Cameron on Fangraphs said  "just come guys who play baseball." I wouldn't have made the trade though, not for the 3 guys they received and not when one 8 game winning streak could put you back in the hunt. 

  18. 22 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

    It's way too early to make any judgement on the JD trade. Those 3 players we received may turn out to be good to very good. I remember the Tigers winning a division with the acquisition of Doyle Alexander. And we stole him for an AA pitcher nobody ever heard of or gave much of a chance.

    The only known in any of this is that JD would have given the Tigers a better chance to win these last two months, in a year when a hot streak could vault you back into WC contention quickly. I'll take that over three exceedingly fringy prospects. 

  19. 15 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

    I'll take Lugo+2 over the field of these 4th round picks

    Gio Arriera 
    Kyle Funkhouser 
    Kade Scivicque 
    Adam Ravenelle 
    Austin Kubitza 
    Drew VerHagen 
    Jason King 
    Cole Green 
    Edwin Gomez 
    Brett Jacobson 
    Charlie Furbush 
    Ryan Strieby 
    Kevin Whelan 
    Collin Mahoney 
    Josh Rainwater 
    Robbie Sovie 
    Mike Rabelo 
    Mark Woodyard 
    Cody Ross 
    Andres Torres 

    I'm assuming this list represents the Tigers last 20 4th round picks? Cody Ross had a career WAR of 13.3. Andres Torres a career WAR of 7.7. Charlie Furbush 1.3. That means 15 percent of these picks returned an average WAR of 7.3. I'm very skeptical that Lugo et al have a 15% change of earning more than 7.3 WAR. In Fangraphs analysis of the trade their projections for the AZ trio are pretty darn bearish. I just wouldn't have bothered if I were Avila. I would have kept Martinez and hoped the Tigers could catch fire and then take my 4th round pick. When weighing all the options its seems keeping Martinez for August and September in hopes the Tigers turn it around may have been the best--because the prospect haul/4th round draft pick math appears fairly even. 

    • Like 2

  20. Pursuant to nothing is this thread, what was the point of trading JD if the return was going to be so meaningless? Today's Free Press analyzes the trade in the context of the current environment and concludes that there was hardly any market for outfielders, especially rentals, which somehow exonerates Avila for the dreadful return he received.

    My reaction is why in the heck trade him at all then? It's very likely he will return more value in the last 2 months of this season (partly by enhancing the Tigers chances of getting back into the WC race) and in the 4th round pick his off season departure will yield than the 3 stiffs Detroit acquired from AZ. 

    My other reaction is if you decide a guy with trade-worthy value is going to get too expensive or no longer in your team's plans you need to move him a year earlier. Perhaps this is an overreaction to what happened this year, but it seems the trend now is to pay very little for rentals. I understand this is simple to state in theory and difficult to execute in reality (what would the reaction have been last year if Avila had traded JD at the deadline), but it appears that the days of getting real value for 2-month rentals may be coming to a close. 

    • Like 1

  21. 16 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

    I looked up Torres but never  would have thought that Frank cat and Joyce would have been over 10.... interesting.

    Totally forgot about Chris Hoiles and Cody Ross.

    Speaking of former Tiger prospects, I was shocked to hear Gorkys Hernandez name last night for the Giants. (Maybe this has been mentioned elsewhere.) He was part of the Renteria trade (along with Jurgens), one of the few pre-2010 DD trades that DD lost. 

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