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Everything posted by SeattleMike

  1. Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts with what should be top 5-10 picks the Tigers add an elite hitter or two who will anchor the lineup in the 2020s. You don't have to squint to hard to imagine a couple of the pitching prospects developing into high level staters. So between the draft and what they have in the system today there is a decent enough foundation to at least stay out of a 10-year death spiral. But to contend for championships they will need to make the most of these upcoming high draft picks and spend some money on the positions where the farm systems fails. I guess that is the great unknown. Will ownership spend when the time comes?
  2. The farm system is definitely better than it has been. Still lacks elite talent. But it's better. It's also much better than it was in the mid 90s when the last rebuild commenced. That is something that works against the narrative that the Tigers are about to enter another decade-plus period of total irrelevance. The second WC also provides ownership incentive for remaining somewhat competitive, because mediocrity in some years will equal contention and contention should equal more fans in seats.
  3. Who's surprised? Not me. It's just remarkable that a guy with his offensive skills was viewed so indifferently by most of the contenders. I get that sluggers are a dime a dozen currently. But Martinez is more than just steak, he's chateaubriand, and despite some defensive flaws he still would have added one or two wins to any contender. Yet there was no interest. Funny thing is Arizona probably didn't even need him--but if the cost is so incredibly low and you have hole to fill why not pull the trigger.
  4. No. I just can't believe the piddling return. Not even blaming Avila necessarily. Just incredibly bad luck and timing, which is the source of most of my annoyance.
  5. How lucky is Arizona. They filled a big hole and gave up virtually nothing. Martinez with 4 homers tonite and 18 since the trade. He has 34 HRs in around 3 months. Just bad timing I guess, if you believe the insiders. But it will be a while before I stop seething about this trade. To think that we traded Martinez and Upton and didn't get one top 100 or even top 200 prospect between the two of them is remarkable and maddening--regardeless of the circumstances.
  6. What they really need is another draft like the 2008 one. It was the apotheosis of DD's fetish for tall, hard-throwing PHPs with no command, except there was no pretense that these guys were going to be starters. Among all the lousy drafts under DD this was stands out for his sheer incompetence and lunacy.
  7. I think there is an OF from Duke, who hits left-handed, projected as a top 5 prospect. That seems like a good fit for the Tigers right now.
  8. Gerber is 25. He should be in the majors right now, especially given that the games don't matter one bit. If the Tigers feel like they'd be rushing him at this age then he is not someone worth investing in.
  9. Gerber is 25. He has a .900 OPS this year against RHP. The Tigers need left-handed bats. He supposedly plays a decent outfield. There is no f..in reason he should still be in the damn minors, 40-man roster issues notwithstanding. Candelario is 23. His OPS against RHP is .870. He needs to be here and to play right now. I honestly don't know what the thinking is with him, at all.
  10. Yes, Jones has struggled. But frankly Stewart (23) and Gerber (24) are not exactly young as prospects go. The Tigers are in full rebuild mode, offering the perfect opportunity to find out now just what they have in these in these two guys.
  11. Is there a reason Candelario is still in the minors? For god sakes give us a reason to tune into the damn games. Stick Nick in the outfield, bring up Jeimer to play 3rd, Gerber at the other corner outfield spot, and Stewart at DH some and let her rip.
  12. If I were Avila, my first offseason move would be to fire Chadd and his underlings and make ridiculous, over the top offers to the best of the scouting and development folks in the Houston front office. That's where it must start.
  13. Cameron is very intriguing. Someone posted his numbers in the second half this year. Over his last 250 ABs at A- he's posting a 958 OPS. For a guy who also can play CF well above average (according to the scouts) that's at least promising. And he's still only 20, so not too old for that league.
  14. Exactly. If there is anyone in MLB today who profiles like Nolan Ryan it's Verlander. The guy is still throwing upper 90s after 90-100 pitches at age 34. I bet he remains effective for the next 6 years or so.
  15. That Cabrera is not this list, and rightfully so, underscores what a tragic season this has been.
  16. So where will Paredes be ranked entering next season? An 18-year old (and not an old 18; his birthday is February 1999) posting an OPS of almost .800 at A ball? With 11 HRs, a walk percentage of 8% and only 56Ks in 431 PA he has matched, or exceeded, the profile of many of this year's top 25 prospects, when they were 18. For me, he's the most exciting positional prospect the Tigers have had in years. Cabrera was not this good at 18 (he posted a .709 OPS at low A as an 18 year old). I get he isn't an elite defender and will probably not stick at SS. But I wonder if he could transition to 2nd base? I wonder if Microline has seen him play and if there are any glaring red flags relating to his hitting ability.
  17. For what it's worth Candalerio at AAA this year has a significantly better OPS at home (Iowa) than on the road: .936 vs .722. The Iowa Cubs park is considered a pretty neutral park on the off/def scale as well. So I'm not too worried about the PCL factor here.
  18. BTW, thanks for sending that smoke all the way down to Seattle :-). Can't do much outside because of it.
  19. I would suggest an 8-game winning streak is more likely than any of these three guys amounting to anything.
  20. I guess if the Tigers really considered King the equivalent of a second round pick then I understand why they pulled the trigger. The other two guys are, as Dave Cameron on Fangraphs said "just come guys who play baseball." I wouldn't have made the trade though, not for the 3 guys they received and not when one 8 game winning streak could put you back in the hunt.
  21. The only known in any of this is that JD would have given the Tigers a better chance to win these last two months, in a year when a hot streak could vault you back into WC contention quickly. I'll take that over three exceedingly fringy prospects.
  22. And I doubt Lugo plus will even equal 1.115. Give me 2 more months of Martinez, with improved odds of making the rest of 2017 interesting plus a draft pick whose odds of matching the potential of the AZ trio are about equal.
  23. I'm assuming this list represents the Tigers last 20 4th round picks? Cody Ross had a career WAR of 13.3. Andres Torres a career WAR of 7.7. Charlie Furbush 1.3. That means 15 percent of these picks returned an average WAR of 7.3. I'm very skeptical that Lugo et al have a 15% change of earning more than 7.3 WAR. In Fangraphs analysis of the trade their projections for the AZ trio are pretty darn bearish. I just wouldn't have bothered if I were Avila. I would have kept Martinez and hoped the Tigers could catch fire and then take my 4th round pick. When weighing all the options its seems keeping Martinez for August and September in hopes the Tigers turn it around may have been the best--because the prospect haul/4th round draft pick math appears fairly even.
  24. Pursuant to nothing is this thread, what was the point of trading JD if the return was going to be so meaningless? Today's Free Press analyzes the trade in the context of the current environment and concludes that there was hardly any market for outfielders, especially rentals, which somehow exonerates Avila for the dreadful return he received. My reaction is why in the heck trade him at all then? It's very likely he will return more value in the last 2 months of this season (partly by enhancing the Tigers chances of getting back into the WC race) and in the 4th round pick his off season departure will yield than the 3 stiffs Detroit acquired from AZ. My other reaction is if you decide a guy with trade-worthy value is going to get too expensive or no longer in your team's plans you need to move him a year earlier. Perhaps this is an overreaction to what happened this year, but it seems the trend now is to pay very little for rentals. I understand this is simple to state in theory and difficult to execute in reality (what would the reaction have been last year if Avila had traded JD at the deadline), but it appears that the days of getting real value for 2-month rentals may be coming to a close.
  25. Speaking of former Tiger prospects, I was shocked to hear Gorkys Hernandez name last night for the Giants. (Maybe this has been mentioned elsewhere.) He was part of the Renteria trade (along with Jurgens), one of the few pre-2010 DD trades that DD lost.
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