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Posts posted by SeattleMike

  1. 1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

    no team had ever picked 1st twice in a row until the Nats in '09-'10, followed immediately by Houston with three in a row. Tigers will vie to be the third in 10 yrs.

    Of course they used to alternate the No 1 pick between leagues. So until recently (last 10 years or so) it was not possible to draft first in consecutive years. In fact, the 2003 Tigers did not have the No 1 pick in 2004. 

  2. Watching Verlander dominate last night and JD Martinez go on one of his HR tears triggered lots of emotions. In hopes of feeling better I did a quick scan of the Tigers top minor league prospects. That was a mistake. Other than Stewart, who Microline dismissed last year as a guy who can't hit fastballs over 95mph or something like that, no one is dazzling. 

    Manning walks too many. Feado strikeout rate is fine but not top of rotation good. Burrows, nothing special. Cameron, who many thought had turned a corner last year, is sitting at a .730 OPS. Paredes has a .399 OPS for the month of May (after a fantastic April). Gerber has been terrible. Likewise Jake Rogers, who has a .465 OPS. Lugo, if you want to call him a top prospect, is hovering around a .650 OPS without any walks. I understand that the system's number one prospect (Perez) has been hurt. But that just goes with the territory with pitchers. Overall it's a fairly grim picture, in terms of actual production, to this point in the season.

    The "well they aren't as bad as I thought they be" reaction to the MLB team has masked the underwhelming results  so far in the minors of the guys who are supposed to be part of the next contending team. 

    Oh well, back to watching the Tigers menagerie of journeymen play .450 baseball and get patted on the back for it.


  3. 1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

    Interesting to see kc at number 29.  Hopefully with them being terrible too we don't sneak out some extra wins that could cost us my dream of having back to back number 1 picks.  Don't ruin this for me Royals!!

    The two worst teams in baseball reside in the AL Central and the White Sox aren't far behind. That's 58ish  or so layups for the Indians. The Tribe has to be a lock for 100 wins next year. Does Vegas takes bets for this kind of thing?

  4. On 10/12/2017 at 1:55 PM, chasfh said:

    Oh my god, THANK you, Jonah Keri:

    When it comes to hiring and firing MLB managers, nobody really knows what they are doing

    I had always been sheepish when admitting that managers was a soft spot in my baseball knowledge, but it makes me feel better to consider that maybe that it's not my fault.

    Keri pretty much sums it up. That's why I don't give a rip who the Tigers hire right now, especially given the circumstances. And if I were Martinez or some other rising managerial star (whatever that is) I wouldn't touch the Detroit job. It could taint you for years. All I want for the next manager is a guy who's entertaining. How about Leyland again? 

  5. 1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

    …Miguel Cabrera can have a return to health and put up a typical Miggy-year? .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI?

    Probability: 80%

    …Michael Fulmer can also have a full return to health and pitch similar to his ROY season?

    Probability: 90%

    …Ian Kinsler puts up numbers comparable to his career averages (162 games): .273 BA, 23 HR, 111 Runs?

    Probability: 60%

    …Shane Greene is in the closer role for an entire season and has a 90% save percentage?

    Probability: 80%

    …Jordan Zimmerman can pitch 200 innings with an ERA under 4.50?

    Probability: 50%

    …Jeimer Candelario can provide league average defense at 3B and have a .800 OPS over a full season?

    Probability: 75%

    …Nick Castellanos repeats his ’17 offensive production?

    Probability: 90%

    …Daniel Norris realizes his potential over the course of an entire season?

    Probability: 50%

    …Mikie Mahtook takes an adult name?

    Probability: 0%

    …Mikie Mahtook carries over his ’17 offensive production over the course of an entire season: .276 BA, 18 HR, 60 RBI, .800 OPS

    Probability: 75%

    If the Tigers can find serviceable replacements in LF, 4th Starter and 7th and 8th inning relievers on one-year deals, this could be a watchable team next year, which should be the goal.  In a rebuild, IMO, the goal should not be to try and lose games.  It should, however, be about providing opportunities for younger players to develop.  No veterans should be brought in or kept on the current roster if they are blocking an opportunity for a young prospect who is ready to play.  I don’t think it’s wise to rush a player, either.

    #operationtank was very successful this year—we’ll likely end up with a top 3 pick in every round of the upcoming draft.  Awesome!  I just don’t want this to be our sustaining plan.  I like baseball.  I’m kind of old (51).  I want to be able to enjoy games instead of watching the AAA-All Star bunch that has been paraded out the last month.  Guys like Holaday, Pressley, Navarro, Romine and Collins are not part of our future and should not be getting significant AB’s moving forward.  The Tigers will lose their fair share of games over the next few seasons without having to try (and likely draft in the top 10).  I don’t think next year’s team is a 100 loss team, nor do I think it should be. 

    After Sunday, I’m officially ending #operationtank.  In a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Royals and over-achieving Twins, anything is possible.

    I think there is a good chance the offense scores enough runs to be a 75-80 win team. But the rotation and bullpen, which consist of very large question marks everywhere, will determine whether 2018 is 2001-2003 bad or just 2004-2005 bad. 

  6. 1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

    Verlander may be looking at another top 5 Cy season.  I'd put him behind Kluber, Sale and Severino but I don't know if I'd put anybody else ahead of him.  Considering where he was at 2 months ago that is quite an achievement, and looking back on his season he really was pretty damn dominant outside of those 3 blow up starts against Cleveland. 

    His control was way off early in the year. I believe he had BB/9 of close to 5. Imagine if he had been Verlander for the whole year. And Cabrera had been Cabrera for the whole year.

    Here's a thought experiment: When they traded JD, the Tigers were 43-49 and 5 back of Cleveland. The previous 2 seasons Cabrera had a WAR of 5. This year he is -.08. So in a little over a half season a typical Cabrera should have been worth 2.5-3.0 WAR (instead of the roughly 1 WAR he had at that point). Then let's imagine Verlander had been himself all year. If so, he likely would have added at least one more win by July 18. That would have meant 46 or 47 wins, which would have put the Tigers only 1-2 games behind the Indians. Would Avila have traded JD under these circumstances? I doubt it. They probably don't make any trades and would have stayed in the race until Fulmer's injury. Depending on your perspective Cabrera's awful season and Verlander's slow start were a blessing in disguise, because it forced Avila to initiate a long overdue reset, or it was a huge tragedy, because, well, it led to this September. Of course you could apply this little exercise to any number of under performers (Victor, Norris, Zimmerman and so on). But they were more wildcards. No one expected this precipitous decline from Cabrera or Verlander's 3-month struggle. Seems as though the timing of this current course can be tied directly to our two future Hall of Famers' stumbles in 2017. 


  7. 1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

    Honestly, I think the biggest requirement to  managing the **** show that will be the 2018-20 Tigers is to stay positive overall while demanding a reasonable amount of accountability and keeping the players engaged.

    Which ain't so different from managing a potential 100 win team.

    Just give me someone who is entertaining during postgame press conferences. And I'm about 80% serious. 

  8. 43 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

    white sox and phillies both win today.

    1.5 ahead of sox, tied with phillies (lose tb). giants playing now, if they win we'd be tied with them and have that tie-breaker.

    provisional #1 pick is so close.

    Too bad there is no Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, or Bryce Harper in this draft (or least I haven't heard about any generational talents in the draft).  How fortunate was Washington to pick #1 two years in row when Harper and Strasburg were obvious number one picks. Going forward shouldn't the Tigers have lots of pool money to sign top international talent--for once!

  9. Last year when his job was in jeopardy media reports suggested he would get another manager's job pretty easily. Wonder if that is still the case. There was some sloppiness this year that may have dimmed his prospects of a quirk hire. 

  10. 1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

    I'm looking back at the past 10 drafts from 2013 on(since they haven't completely developed yet in the drafts after that) and every single one had atleast one guy out of the top 5 picks turn out to be either a perennial all star or superstar and quite a few with more than one.  So I'd say a 25% or more chance of being a superstar or perennial all star a relatively high number. 

    The problem is the other 75%. The Tigers had top 5 picks in 1990, 1996, 2002, 2003, and 2004 (I might be missing a year). Only Verlander became a superstar, which at 20% is pretty close to your 25%. Whatever the odds they ain't 80% or something like that. Hopefully these next few drafts with high picks will yield a superstar that would help the rebuild immensely. I just wouldn't count on it. 

  11. 3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

    That's the narrative but its actually not the case.  Sure 90% or more of the prospects drafted don't make it but I would bet the majority of the upper tier prospects that people are discussing do, in fact a relatively high number of them become all stars.  

    If a high percentage of top draft picks actually became stars there would be a lot more parity in baseball. And the Yankees likely wouldn't be on a string of 25 consecutive winning seasons, which is incredible. The odds that a top 5 pick will became a star are higher than a 5th round pick. But the truth is both are pretty low. The odds are pretty good, I believe, that a first round pick will make the majors, but the range of outcomes after that are wide. 

    • Like 1

  12. 1 hour ago, Walewander said:

    Between his minor-league numbers and his production for a little over a half season, I was convinced that we had found the poster boy for the Moneyball "it doesn't matter how he looks in blue jeans" in Chris Shelton. I actually thought that he was going to finish 2006 hitting. 300 with 30 home runs and it was only going to be the start of 10 pretty good years before he would age quickly and be remembered as one of the better Rule 5 guys ever. 

    And yes, post streak Chris Shelton was still better than Sean Casey. 

    Shelton's was a weird case. Yes, he cratered after that hot April. Of course he had been great in 460 PAs the year before, posting an 870 OPS. When he got sent down in July he finished the year with a .812 OPS and in 2007 at AAA put up an .800 OPS with 14 HRs (while Casey hit all of 4 HRS). Then at 28,  Shelton gets traded to Texas and rakes at AAA OKC (yes PCL inflated) with a .970 OPS. Texas gives him 100 PAs and he flops (.660 OPS). At 29 he becomes a free agent, signs with Seattle and rakes at AAA Tacoma, posting a .905 OPS. Seattle gives him a meaningless 26 PA that season. He retires after 2010 never sniffing the majors again. My point is that after that April swoon in 2006 he was never given a real chance again, despite continuing to hit at the AAA level. He seems like a guy who should have been given 400-500 PAs on a non playoff contender sometime between 2007-2010. He seems like the kind of cheap sign the Tigers should be looking for in 2018 (perhaps at DH/1B). 

    • Like 3

  13. 1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

    I remember the Wilcox game like it was yesterday. Go to the 5:00 mark to wince again. Funny, never noticed before that the next thing Harwell said was "shades of Tommy Bridges".



    Great clip. Always nice to hear Harwell's voice.  Not only did Harwell drop the Bridges anecdote, he knew who broke up Bridges perfect game--which had been 50 years earlier. Maybe someone fed him the info, but I'll bet he knew it off the top of his head.

  14. 33 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

    based on how crappy the Tigers, White Sox and Royals will be, I suspect they'll be able to beat their own record next year.

    No kidding. The Indians have put together a **** of a team, one in which it seems every prospect is hitting his ceiling, and 3/5ths of the division, or 35% of the Indians games, will be against teams projected to lose 90-100+ games. 

  15. 48 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

    Congratulations Cleveland Indians on their 18 game winning streak. I'm discounting by 50% six of the wins vs by the cruddy Tigers.

    I suspect if the Indians had faced the June 2017 Tigers their streak would be over. Almost half of this historic streak has been aided by the decision of two of the clubs the Tribe has beaten to stop fielding  major league teams. For sure they would probably have ripped off 19 wins out of 21 games or something torrid like that. But the White Sox and Tigers have certainly helped along. 

  16. 1 hour ago, Casimir said:

    Hopefully Candelario can bring some more offense.  He has 4 inches and probably 20some pounds on Pendleton (per bbref).  Have to think there is potential for better power.

    I like that Candelario improved his numbers from A+ to AA to AAA.  I wonder, however, if his AAA numbers are a bit inflated thanks the PCL.  It probably doesn't matter at this point.  He's likely at 3B next season barring something really wacky happening, so we will just have to see how his MLB production pans out.

    His OPS was considerably higher (around 250-300 points if my memory serves me correctly) at home at AAAA Iowa than on the road this year. So his offense is more than just a PCL mirage.

  17. 40 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

    I am not surprised at what they got.  I don't think he would have been traded if they couldn't get that kind of return.  I did not think they would get a lot for him in July, but once he got on a roll, I figured they could get a pretty good prospect package for him.  Of course, I don't love prospects, so maybe I am underestimating what they got.  I will say that the Wilson trade looks really good.  They got closer value for someone who I don't think is that great of a reliever.    

    Thank the 2014-2015 KC Royals and 2016 Cleveland Indians for the J. Wilson return. Sign of the times that a 8-9th inning relief guy and platoon catcher fetched more than a middle-of-order hitter with a 150 OPs+ over the last 4 years. 

  18. 4 hours ago, Shelton said:

    I wasn't exactly sure where Jeimer would end up in a new top 100. I feel like he won't be in there this offseason. But yeah, he should have been mentioned. 

    I went back and checked the BA top 100 minor league lists from 1990-2005. Not surprisingly, the Tigers rarely placed more than 1 or 2 guys a year on the top 100 lists. They had 3 on the 1998 list, two relief pitchers (Anderson and Cordero) and Juan Encarnacion, who at 15 was the highest any Tiger prospect was ranked during this period. So, despite all those high draft picks the Tiger never once had a top 10 prospect during this period.

    The fact the system currently has at least 4 maybe more top 100 prospects already puts the franchise well ahead of where it was during the last rebuild. Of course the odds are against any of them turning into significant contributors, but at least the odds are better than the last time that the Tigers have already found a couple of answers. At this point I'm just looking for whatever little green shoots I can find. 

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