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Posts posted by SeattleMike

  1. 49 minutes ago, chasfh said:

    Fun fact: of the 2,542 teams that have played big league baseball since 1901, only 17 (less than 1%) finished with a per game run differential of -2 or worse. The 2019 Tigers are about to finish the season as one of them.


    Note that no other team since 1962 is even on this list.

    Bonus fun facts:

    The 18th worst team on the list, aka the closest team to -2 per game Rdiff without attaining -2, is the 1996 Tigers, at -1.98.

    The next worst big league team on negative Rdiff since 1962 is the 2002 Tigers, 36th overall at -1.80.

    That's right: the worst four teams since 1962 on per game Rdiff are the Ilitch Tigers.

    The worst non-Ilitch team since 1962 on per game Rdiff is the 1974 Padres (-1.78).

    EDIT: I've updated the table for clarity.

    The Tigers have become like the old Connie Mack A's, just without the historically great teams Mack would occasionally produce. 

  2. 3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

    Yes, it is.  He is one of the only good things that happened for the Tigers this year.  For what it's worth, he has almost the same ERA and a lower FIP than Boyd.  

    You don't have to squint too much to see a future starting rotation that is good enough to launch a team into contention. As for the rest of the roster, well...

  3. 3 hours ago, Buddha said:

    this makes me sad.

    almost as sad as knowing i will never be served broccoli with sprinkles by a hot japanese girl.


    I was just venting. I get no one cares about the Tigers All-Time winning percentage. I always liked, however, that the Tigers were consistently competitive. Not many long stretches of really bad baseball. Oh well. 

  4. 36 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

    The media at large is doing a poor job of prying and exposing the problems there.  There's something there, and instead we are getting puff pieces about Harold Castro and Victor Reyes.

    Jack Morris and Craig Monroe can't stop slobbering all over Harold Castro. I hope that's not reflective of how the front office views things. I'm afraid it is though. 

  5. 4 hours ago, chasfh said:

    I find whenever the Tigers take their occasional plunge to the depths of the big leagues, as they do waaaay too often, I start to take more of an interest in the rest of the teams and players in the game. When we were on our playoff runs I was pretty focused on the team. But I am definitely less interested overall in watching highlights now since 60% of them are either a homer or a strikeout, and that's just boring.

    The elevation of the homer and strikeout is such that when MLB Network shows their Plays of the Week, more and more of them are homers or strikeouts. I don't think of a home run as a "great play". A home run is a fly ball that went too far to get caught. I think of a great play as something special a player does in the heat of the moment, typically on defense or while baserunning.

    Since 1989 the Tigers have lost ~8% off of their All-Time winning percentage. Through their first 88 years the Tigers had the second best AL winning percentage. Now they are only 160 games over .500 and trail the Indians by 8 percentage points. Detroit is 239 games under .500 since 1989. The Tigers three seasons of 109 losses or more match the total number of 109 loss seasons from the rest of the league during this time.

     The run from 2006-2016 was scintillating, although none of those teams won 100 games or were really ever the best team in baseball, sort of like the franchise's identity for its first 88 years. Competitive, with a few great teams and a smaller number of awful ones. Over the last three decade, however, the Tigers have shown more aptitude at being awful than great. 

  6. 9 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

    Unless the Tigers go on an unlikely six-game winning streak, which seems intrinsically impossible especially given that they will be playing the Twins soon, I’d say they have this cat in the bag.  

    Since June 1 the Tigers have won back-to-back games twice. Add a 3-game win streak in May and that's it for consecutive wins over the last 4.5 months. A truly wretched year. Disturbing that I even pay attention. 

  7. 30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

    You're right, barring a collapse in Lakeland in March, he should be starting the season in Toledo.

    If Ike puts up a 133 wRC+ there, which would be something in the area of .280/.370/.530, that would be a **** of a leap for a kid of 21 moving up to a much harder league populated with much older players, half of whom have played in the big leagues. That would make him a 90th percentile hitter in the International League, and he would probably also enter the Top 25 among prospects.

    If that happens, I agree that he'd have an inside track to make the 2021 team.

    Some guy on another site posted an interesting fact about Paredes. In his entire minor league career he has had a total of 2 plate appearances against pitchers the same age or younger than him. So, he's used to facing pitchers much older than him. That doesn't guarantee a thing. At least he is someone with potential to be above average at the plate. 

    • Thanks 1

  8. 7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

    Thank you.

    I don't understand what you think the cynical part is?

    Also, do you believe Al Avila's hold on his job is so tenuous that he can save it only by bringing up Paredes next season?

    Cynical because I highly doubt Paredes will repeat AA next year, and I bet you don't really believe that either. And if he puts up another 133RC+ at Toledo, as he did at Erie, I don't think the Tigers would have him repeat AAA in 2021. I get the service time stuff, but by 2021 I believe Avila will have to field a team with a future that looks as bright as the White Sox have right now. Paredes would be part of that. 

  9. 22 hours ago, chasfh said:

    I don't think there's any way Paredes comes up next year. I'm not even sure he starts next year at Triple A. It's going to depend on him, of course—if he's hitting .350/.450/.700 in Toledo, sure, he might come up, but maybe not even then. I think they'll try to time him to come in a year after Mike/Manning/Skubal.

    Unless he makes the kind of huge leap I threw up there, I'm thinking late April 2022 at the earliest for Paredes.

    I always enjoy your takes. But this just too cynical. I understand you have less than zero faith in Avila, but Al is going to need to show something before 2020 to keep his job. Paredes is one of the few chips he has to make that happen., 

    • Thanks 1

  10. 10 hours ago, Casimir said:

    I suspect there won't be much movement among the position players.

    DH - Cabrera.  Easy enough, as long as he is healthy.

    C - Greiner, Hicks.   I don't believe that Greiner has turned a corner with his bat, but I would guess that his overall game is preferable as a starter over Hicks.  Rogers is simply overmatched right now.

    IF - Candelario, CastroH, Lugo, CastroW, Goodrum.  I think its possible that CastroW might start out in Toledo if he looks rough in spring.  Otherwise that's the starting infield going around the horn and I think its highly likely that playing time is spread around pretty evenly.  I'd bet its Candelario's last chance, but there isn't much in the minors to push him, so who knows.

    OF - Stewart, Reyes, Jones, Demeritte.  This might be similar to the infield with Reyes moving around the 3 spots and a 4 for 3 time share.  Stewart allegedly has the power, Reyes has put the bat on the ball, Jones has the glove, Demeritte is supposed to be a blend of speed  and some power.  I doubt Cameron makes the club regardless of what happens in spring training.

    That's 12 position players with room for 1 more.  Rodriguez?  Dixon?  I don't mind the idea of bringing Mercer back, or bringing in a veteran bat (or 4).  But I can see the Tigers standing pat with the above and letting the roster play itself out to determine who might be a part of the team in 2021.

    Paredes should be in Detroit playing somewhere in the infield next year. His Zips projection for 2020 is 1.8 WAR. I doubt many, if any, of the infielders you mentioned will match that. I'd especially like to see Paredes over Lugo next year. 

  11. 27 minutes ago, Casimir said:

    Sometimes he just got plain lucky, too.  Couldn't get Aurilia to sign in Detroit and went with Guillen as plan B.


    12 minutes ago, Oblong said:

    Who was available because of a failed physical in a Guillen to CLE trade that made that deal fall apart....


    I think it was Omar Vizquel. To go from 119 losses to a WS appearance in three years you need a few breaks. This was a huge one.

  12. 59 minutes ago, chasfh said:

    So, interestingly, I came across this article from USA Today I hadn't seen before, in which the committee Baseball hired to look into the physics issues related to the ball may have come up with the solution for changes that might address the runaway home run issue:


    At SABR last year I presented a poster that sought to identify the issues that have been leading to too many home runs, along with too many strikeouts, and the attendant effect of ever increasing game time, and came up with one main recommendation: change the ball. And the two main changes in the manufacture of the ball would be to reduce the spin of the ball, and deaden the ball.

    The idea behind reducing the spin is that the ball would break less, batters could true up the ball better and put more balls in play, while reducing swing-and-miss and foul balls, which should lower strikeout totals. Of course, if batters can true up juiced balls that would just result in an explosion of home runs, so by deadening the ball, that would diminish  its flight, reduce home runs and keep more balls in the park so fielders can make plays on runners running hard to make bases, instead of just looking up seeing a ball fly out while the batter and runners leisurely jog around bases. The reduced threat of home runs should lead pitchers to decrease their tactic of pitching around batters or nibbling on corners all the time, resulting in more here-you-go-hit-it pitches (particularly to down-the-order batters) which should result in more balls in play, fewer strikeouts, fewer walks, and ultimately more action in shorter games.

    I met the man who is the chairman of the committee Baseball hired to look into the problem, Dr Alan Nathan, and we discussed some of the ways these two changes to the ball could be achieved. Their committee, and the SABR Science Committee, had already been talking about ways to slow down the velocity of pitches, a factor which their studies were showing having explained something like 90% of all increased strikeouts in recent years, and they were thinking about things like making the ball heavier (which would make a lot of sense, since the ball has been the same exact size for 125 years while the size of players themselves have increased dramatically). But they had not considered changing the manufacture of the ball to reduce its spin, as my data showed a distinct correlation between increased spin and increased swing-and-miss on six of the seven most common pitches (all except the change-up). One of the ideas we discussed to reduce spin was to redistribute the weight between the middle and the surface of the ball so that basic physics change would act to lower the spin rate. If the spin reduction is enough, say 15% to 20%, that alone could increase contact rates by ten to twelve percentage points. Do that while deadening the ball by just 2%, and based on 2017 Statcast data, we could achieve -18% fewer strikeouts, -6% fewer walks, up to a -20% decrease in homers, and a 5-point increase in balls in play, all while maintaining a similar run-scoring environment.

    The USA Today story makes it sound as though Baseball is considering implementing the changes the committee will (has already?) come up with, and I'm eager to find out whether any of the ideas we discussed last year are going to make the cut. I'm really excited to see what they've come up with. But mostly, I really want the skyrocketing home run and strikeout to reverse, and sharply.

    Thanks for posting this article. Interesting. Would definitely enhance the value of good defense. 

  13. 1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

    I don't really care much about the others beside JV, just because JV is going to the HOF so everything that happens in his career is going to have more significance.

    Scherzer is probably Hall of Fame bound as well, although his standing among Tigers fans is different from Verlander's. 

  14. 15 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

    Allen had a lifetime 156 OPS+.  That is higher than Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera and he's not in the Hall of Fame and nobody ever mentions him.  I have read that he might be up for a vote this year though.    

    Phillies fans are confident he will get in next year. Growing up I just remember him as a guy who clashed with everyone, and moving from team to team as a result. What I didn't know then was the abuse he took in Philadelphia as the first black Phillie. Ridiculous stuff. He wore a batting helmet in the field, and the media and fans gave him grief for it. The reason he wore it, supposedly, was to protect him from all the crap fans in Philadelphia threw at him during games. 

  15. 6 hours ago, Tim Mitchell said:

    The Seawolves have double digit pitchers that may be MLB in the next couple years. Maybe one position player, Paredes.

    Paredes very quietly having a solid year. He's improved each month, finishing with an .829 OPS in July, First two days of August he's 6 for 8 with a walk and double. 46/47 BB/Ks in 428 plate appearances. 128 wRC+. The only knock this year is obviously the pedestrian number of HRs, 8.

     Among the top 100 Eastern League hitters he's the second youngest one. The other guy, who is 19, has a .594 OPS. Paredes's OPS ranks him 25th (9th currently, if you compare him to guys who are still in the EL). . Everyone above him is at least 2 years older, except for one guy who is 21.

    He's not Vlad Jr or Acuna, but he certainly appears on track to be an above average MLB hitter. I've also read some recent accounts that said he isn't the quite the stiff in the field that many suggested during the offseason. 

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  16. 17 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

    From what I can find on twitter he was fine though three innings then had one bad 4th where he gave up all the runs. Stuff looked fine in the videos, for the most part. There is video of the homer out there and he has a very weird/un casey like finish so maybe he slipped. 

    I think part of its is probably dumb luck, part is he wasn't gonna go no hitter every time out, part he's probably still dealing with the injury a bit, probably a bit of fatigue as this is his first time throwing 140 innings and pitching every fifth day. 

    On another site some guy who was at the game thought Mize was fine, mostly unlucky on balls in play. Another, who watched on TV, thought Mize looked bad and gave up too much hard contact, although this guy admits he is not a big fan of Mize (because his fastball is too hittable). 

  17. 16 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:


    But the more I read of Wentz's he seems like a decent return alone. Big, left, 90s fastball, decent command. Clearly he slots in with our other pitchers timelines and can replace boyd, who we trade in the offseason.

    The outfielder always had talent maybe it just took him to 24 to out it all together.

    The thing I like about Demeritte is his walk rate has always been above 10% and his K rate has been coming down. It now sits around 25%, not great but he's been improving. He's also consistently hit for power. They really should call him up. 

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