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Posts posted by SeattleMike

  1. 36 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

    JD has to be one of the most surprising.  Since his breakout in 2014 he's been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, going from basically a mid 900+ OPS to .681 is a remarkable dropoff.   He only just turned 33 in August so it's not like he is that old.  Definitely at the age where you would expect some decline but nothing that drastic.    

    On the whole, guys who take a while to bloom tend to decline earlier and harder, if I'm remembering my Bill James correctly. 

  2. 5 hours ago, Shelton said:

    In my opinion, Evan Woodberry of mlive is very good. The rest seem pretty paint by numbers. 

    McCosky does have the occasional interesting insight. But he also often acts like a child, and his editors miss a lot of his obvious mistakes. 

    Fenech, I don’t even know what his job entails these days, but he has embraced the cynic’s view of the anti-Avila brigade, and he seems to insert himself into the story a bit too much. He often acts like he is a member of the White House press corps and needs to hold the powerful accountable or some **** like that. 

    I miss Lynn Henning at this point. He would vacillate between overly optimistic about prospects like Kody Clemens and then overly pessimistic about how the team is doomed, often in the same week. 

    Henning had his faults and pet peeves. But he warmed up to analytics long before anyone else in Detroit who wrote about the Tigers. Tom Gage covered the Tigers into the 2010s, and at the time of his retirement he was still fixated on batting average and RBI.  

  3. 17 hours ago, Shelton said:


    I still think it's BS that Paredes couldn't break most prospect top 100 lists. He's always been one of the two youngest position players in his league and hit everywhere, showing very good control of the strike zone. So he's a bit chunky and not Omar Vizquel with the glove. But he isn't Christin Stewart or Daniel Vogelbach either. 

  4. 1 hour ago, chasfh said:

    Now that I’ve looked it up, I’m reminded that Bobby Wallace from the 1900s and 10s also made the Hall of Fame on the strength of his performance with the Browns. 

    I also had to look up their all time best pitcher, also from the early 20s, whom I’ve heard of but definitely could not have named off the top of my head. The Browns had no pitchers making the Hall of Fame because of their work in St Louis. 


    Urban Shocker pitched for the Browns from 1918-1924, posting 38 WAR. He bookended his career with the Yankees. His career stats are definitely borderline Hall of Fame. 124 ERA + (better than Juan Marichal,, Bob Feller, Bob Lemon, and others) and 54 career WAR. 

  5. 22 minutes ago, Buddha said:

    if protests dont result in transmission, how can sitting in a stadium?  sell tickets two seats apart if you want.

    if protests dont cause transmission, how could standing in an open air concert?

    I think we are saying the same thing. I believe if you limited capacity to 1/3 you could allow fans. Restrooms would need to be very well ventilated and usage limited somewhat (no more than x number at a time). 

  6. 3 minutes ago, Buddha said:

    if it is so difficult to spread outdoors, why dont we have fans in the stands?  why dont we have outdoor concerts?  shouldnt all beaches be open?  playgrounds?

    Sitting next to the same people for 3 hours in a stadium likely carries more risk than standing next to the first baseman for 5 minutes. Playground risk is probably mostly due to surface transmission. How many cases have been traced to crowded beaches? That infamous photo of revelers hanging out at some pool in Missouri over Memorial Day weekend did not lead to a breakout. 

  7. 1 hour ago, Buddha said:

    two phillies staff test positive.  series with the blue jays is cancelled.

    Interesting that no players tested positive. Additional proof that transmission outdoors is considerably more difficult than indoors. 

  8. 39 minutes ago, chasfh said:

    I wouldn't get too comfortable or excited about Spencer Torkelson because if history is any guide, the Tigers will select Emerson Hancock with their 1/1.

    During the Ilitch era the Tigers have had 31 first round picks, and 22 of them have been pitchers. Their 71% of first round selections being pitchers is the highest among all franchises. The average franchise has selected pitchers with 51% of their first round picks since 1993.

    But wait, it gets better ...

    Of the 22 pitchers they selected, 21 were right-handed pitchers. That's fully 68% of all first round picks in the last almost three decades used on RHPs, far above the next two franchises (Nats/Expos (50%) and Cardinals (48%), and almost double the average franchise (36%).

    The one left-handed pitcher they selected in the first round (call yourself a true draft devotee if you can name him without looking it up) constitutes 3% of all Tigers' first round picks, which is the lowest percentage of any franchise! FWIW, the Cardinals are almost as averse to choosing left-handers as their pitcher in the first round (only 8%).

    Emerson Hancock is a right-handed pitcher.

    Andrew Miller is the one lefty I assume. 


  9. On 2/17/2020 at 8:36 PM, leflore said:

    Didn't know that about Newsom. Just checked and he also lost 20 games in a season for 3 different teams.

    You know what they say about 20-game losers: you have to be a pretty good pitcher if they keep sending you out there despite the mounting losses. Analytics before the analytic revolution. 

  10. 23 hours ago, tiger337 said:

    This is how I see it.  I get why people don't like him, but I get along with him.  He is pretty knowledgeable, although no more so than a lot of others I follow.  Like you  said, he is too negative, but entertaining.  He is kind like an obnoxious talk radio guy, except a little smarter.  

    Maybe I have the facts wrong, but he always seemed to imply that he had credentials as a scout. He was a spirited debater, to say the least. And brusque. 

  11. 1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

    I grew up in that era, so I know how Garvey was viewed.  He finished high in MVP voting, but he should not have.  I always thought he was way overrated.  He was a contact hitting first baseman with modest power.  A first baseman with a lifetime OPS+ of 117 (same as Whitaker)?  No thanks.   

    Garvey this close to the Hall of Fame? Where would it end. Boog Powell (134 OPS+) and Norm Cash (139 OPS +) for starters have a stronger claim, especially Cash and his 52 WAR.

  12. 8 hours ago, Oblong said:

    For all the "how did this team not win the WS" talk about that era I always go back to the fact that they never had home field advantage in the playoffs except for the '06 WS because of the ASG that year....

    Yes they were good but at any single point in time they were never considered the best team and played against teams with better records. Just because you won the division in 2011 doesn't give you any advantage in 2013 or 2014.  The 2014 team was a lot different thant he 2012 team as well.

    Those teams had shaky bullpens and too many holes in the lineup....  it wasn't like the starters were all Cy Young contenders either.

    We're overrating them.

    If the Tigers had the Verlander and Sanchez of 2019 in 2014 they probably would have won a few more games in the regular season and perhaps performed better in the post-season. Verlander had his worst season in 2014 (worst ERA in the AL of any starter with more than 100 innings) and Sanchez was hurt on and off. 

  13. 34 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

    Sending a message that he was glad the Astros acquired Osuna (who was good for a 176 OPS+ this year) and  won the pennant that night despite Osuna's rare blown save?  Horrors!   How dare he!  To the Sensitivity Training gulag with him!

    The Perpetually Offended Posse of the Indignation Industry rears its ugly head once again. 

    Are you saying these reporters are Christians? No group is a more steadfast member of the Perpetually Offended Posse of the Indignation Industry than them. Back to baseball. 

  14. 23 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

    Two things with Daniel. He got through a season unhurt. And as he got some innings under his belt he did start to control his delivery. In his last 13 games: 48IP; 40H, 46K, 13BB, 3.19 ERA, 1.1 WHIP. All pitchers are risky, but I think cutting Norris loose at this point would be pennny-wise, pound foolish. I still think he needs more work on his mechanics, but he can get people out even as he is.

    These arbitration numbers are laughably low, just further proof of the lack of talent on the major league roster. I didn't total up the numbers of every other team, but a quick glance suggests the Tigers aren't getting much from players in their prime (as if that's news to us). 

  15. 14 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

    The remarks from Bigglesworth are spot on.When I look at 2020 spring training, of the 25 spots (or is it 26 this Spring), I see maybe 4 or 5 spots of the 2020 roster  locked down, leaving us 20 true ballplayers short. When we traded  Verlander for the pieces we received, we had to hit on them for this rebuild to progress normally. That hasn't and will not happen.

    We have Manning, Mize, Paraedes (sp), and Greene that will probably have some impact at the major league level someday, but not in 2020. The  position players in the system such as Daz Cameron, Cam Gibson, Parker Meadows, and Kody Clemens are just guys of no impact in any future.

    It appears to me that for the most part, we  have been and are still very poor at identifying talent and developing it properly.

     I see about 107 losses for 2020 as the franchise still stands. Any reasonable improvement date is 2021 or 2022, with maybe a shot at .500 in 2023.


    I think it's way too early to write off Parker Meadows. He had nearly a 10% walk rate and 20% K rate as a 19 year old in A ball. Not a bad foundation. The others I agree on. 

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