Gehringer_2

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About Gehringer_2

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  • Birthday 06/01/1954

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  1. This story highlights 'upstream' - exploration and production. Refining ( aka "Downstrea") has also has problems but those are at least half of their own making. What has gotten many refiners in trouble is just getting too greedy when times were good. There was a lot of running right past maintenance requirements and a lot of decisions to shed expertise judged to be replaceable when the expertise started getting expensive (i.e. the salaries of petroleum and Chem Es.) Then margins adjusted back to normal but by then things were breaking down so fast they couldn't keep the places running, and the capital cost burden for a refinery suffering downtime is an absolute killer. BP, Exxon, Sun, all with major balance sheet busting outages - mostly because of too long deferred maintenance.
  2. I wonder who is gonna do the survey once BHI finally goes belly up?
  3. did he really write "at a later date so we can get started early"? The mind boggles.
  4. Indeed, the explosion in secondary recovery techniques: shale, fracking and its ilk, have changed life for OPEC forever. In the early days of the cartel, they had low production costs and competing oil had huge investment cost and time lags to market. This made it easy for OPEC to keep those competing sources at bay by threatening price cuts that would send the huge fixed cost competitors like deep water into insolvency and so created big investment uncertainties for them. Projects had to have big return margins to overcome those risks. Thus OPEC could maintain consistent windfall profit levels. But with shale and fracking, while operating costs may be higher than OPEC, investment costs are low and time lags are short. So OPEC can still drive competitors to shut down, but they can't keep them from coming right back as as soon as they try to raise prices even slightly above the competition's variable costs. The days when they could enforce arbitrary profit margins are gone.
  5. Greece will be coming up on another crises shortly, but in the interest of fairness, since Mr Laffer was so totally wrong about large marginal tax cuts increasing revenue to the Treasury in the US under Reagan (or course, they did not, they produced epic deficits), there is a demonstration in Greece that the theory behind the Laffer Curve can apply in the right situation. Laffer used the example of the Kennedy era cuts, which were from much higher levels than existed by the Reagan era, but today the IMF has strong armed Greece into similar ridiculous tax rates (>70%) and economic activity is either going underground, or simply disappearing, which is what one might suspect expect even without Mr Laffer drawing us any curves. Like almost every other concept in economics, the 'Laffer Curve' may or may not apply - depending..... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/18/world/europe/greece-bailout-black-market.html
  6. Yes but still, a couple of hundred pitches, a few dozen batters faced, and some IP less than in his peak years. He is still a horse, but he's not the horse he was in that regard. I'm not over reacting - I'm facing facts. He was the best pitcher in the AL last season but he is still in trouble at pitch counts he used to handle. At least twice last year - may 30 and Aug 16, JV started an inning at or near 100, put 2 or three men on, they all scored and he got the loss after otherwise pitching a great game. That doesn't happen with a good BP and if they win those two he probably has the CY locked up. Pitch counts in those games were 116 and 112. It's not like what happened to him tonight has no precedent. Plus he just isn't sharp right now for whatever reason. I think his last start plus the walks tonight is proof enough of that. I think it is just being realistic to recognize that. There is no question Ausmus is in a bind. I hate that the result of that is that our good players - like JV - don't get more support to succeed.
  7. I do wonder if they are still on a let down from the high of getting the monkey off their back in Cleveland.
  8. Not to mention, that if we had a good BP, other teams wouldn't work so hard to get to it, so we would likely end up having to use it less, and then it wouldn't even need to be as deep. A bad BP is a cancer that invades everything else.
  9. Hey - it's heII when your heroes get old but it happens to all of us. I love JV as much as anyone. But he's on the downside of his career. I'd rather see him used so that he has the optimum chance to succeed and showcase the things he can still do - like pitch 5 SO innings. At his age that means he now needs a competent BP behind him or you will get more of tonight than either of us want to see.
  10. Cabrera with another 3/3. You can't win an MVP on a last place team, but a second triple crown is always out there.....Assuming he plays again this season...
  11. Now you are being silly. Pitchcounts matter. Walking two guys to lead off an inning matters.
  12. end of the 5th - maybe yes. Can you seriously say you're sure the result would have been worse? In the end the Pen did not give up any runs in 7&8 remember.
  13. I would put it this way. JV was not going to pitch any further than the 6th anyway. At best you were going to need to get 9 outs from the pen. So look at this this way - were the odds better that pen could get 12 outs with a 3 run lead as compared to 9 outs with a 1 run or no run lead, because yeah - I though JV was going to give up runs if left in after the 2nd walk. At that point he was down to throwing only one pitch and he couldn't command even that.
  14. He was giving up plenty of hard contact and had walked more than he had K'd before Ausmus let him give up walk #6. That was the game I saw. Yes he was throwing hard - which bodes well for the future. But wasn't doing anything for his command tonight. Yes - stuff was fine, but command was absent. Can't do without both.
  15. You can believe or not. I believe what I see - he couldn't get it back after it slipped away at high pitch count. And he got bombed his last time out. He's off his game right now. That is data in the books.