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mtutiger

MotownSports Fan
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Everything posted by mtutiger

  1. This is the county north of Austin, which Beto flipped in 2018. Trump won by 10. A lot of counties here will match or pass 2016 turnout during early voting. Pretty remarkable.
  2. Are these the ones that Radcliffe claimed were meant to help Biden? Really?
  3. Follows the pattern earlier in the year of lower quality/lesser known pollsters lowering the PA RCP average, then followed by the heavy hitters painting a 7-10 point picture.
  4. Oh I know.... it just doesn't need to be here.
  5. A lot of the confidence that I have comes down to Biden's standing / Trump's lack of standing with college-educated voters; when the Times polled the district (and found Biden leading by high single digits), Nate Cohn noted that if the district were its own state, it would be one of most college educated districts in the country. When you couple with the urban core of Omaha (which resembles most larger cities, with decent sized AA population), it's just hard to see Trump winning there. But we'll see....
  6. A small request: you can talk about the Rudy thing, but please, no pictures 😱
  7. This map is defensible, as you said above, you may be taking a more glass-half-empty approach with the state polls. The only real qualm that I have with it is Nebraska 2.... that may be the most guaranteed flip on the map.
  8. The big thing too with a lot of these polls is that, even in the ones Trump is doing well in, he's stuck down in the low-mid 40s. And you look at a state like Iowa, which he won by 9, and he's an incumbent stuck in the 40s. Even with the strength of incumbency, that's not a great place to be.... especially when your approval rating is stuck in the low 40s. I get it, 2016 is lodged deep into everyone's brain.... but (to use Mitt Romney's phrase) it's not written into the stars that everything will play out exactly as it did four years ago.
  9. He's got about two points to go to get back to where he was pre-debate/illness. And that includes the fact that he has a debate tmrw that will likely impact polling.
  10. I was thinking more like the elevator in "The Spy Who Loved Me" with the trapdoor that dumps you into the shark tank.
  11. Staying within these confines, Georgia/Iowa/Ohio/Texas are the hardest ones for me.... Iowa and Ohio because the polling seems more bullish toward Biden than my priors would expect, Georgia/Texas because the likelihood of higher turnout and demographic changes make them more unpredictable. I probably would be less bullish on Georgia if the 50+1 rule that exists for Gubernatorial/Senator races was in effect for the Presidential, but it isn't, and Biden can win with 48-49%
  12. Good answer.... about what you would expect from someone in Plouffe's position.
  13. My district! Daniel has been way too low key compared to some other Texas challengers....
  14. A President Biden will have a lot of challenges, but if they can pull off a successful rollout of a vaccine, that will help him in the first year
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