Released yesterday: Output dropsat fastest rate for over a decade as coronavirus hits - Purchasing Managers’ Index™MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION EMBARGOED UNTIL: 0945(EST) /1345(UTC) 24th March 2020
Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 40.5(49.6in February). New series low.
Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 39.1(49.4inFebruary). New series low.
Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 49.2(50.7in February). 127-month low.
Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at47.6(50.7inFebruary). 127-month low.
Data collected March 12-23
This is only part of the problem. As this goes on, people are going to get more "testy" because they can't do anything, and they can see the future (for many) will not too pretty. The things so many took for granted are now going away, and/or, will be gone in the not too distant future.
I ***** because our golf league is postponed. It was something I took for granted that would be spared by this crisis. I mean, what better place than a golf course to be un-close to someone else? If you have a membership, you don't need to go inside and pay, you just park your car and go play. You are in hundreds of acres of seclusion. Not anymore - because we are on lock down and if nobody can go out - you don't play. Why would a golf course spend all that money to keep the place in shape when nobody is playing? Their not.
That's the good news, unfortunately. What's the owner going to do? This guy just bought the place a few years ago, and just last year spent hundreds of thousands more to buy an adjacent field to build a driving range and practice area. What now? He's fooked. This could be the end.
What about all the other small businesses? The local mom and pop shops, small restaurants, gift shops, bars, whatever? They will be toast, as they can't absorb this, even with .gov help. Money not collected is money lost. Gone, poof. Not to mention all the lost jobs, many of which may never return. And if they do, when?
Some are lucky (like myself) who are retired, getting SS, and have their household finances in order. But what about the younger people who are living paycheck to paycheck and don't have a nest egg to fall back on? Not good. We've all read the articles about the debt/savings (or lack of) of the average American. Not good.
Once the reality of all this starts to sink in, and the livelihood people are used to are found to be going away (or already gone), what will they do. Or, maybe I should say, how will they react?
What is the old saying? When desperate people are desperate...or something like that.
The market is acting pretty good today, but why wouldn't it? Between the printing press at the Fed, and the gazillion dollar stimulus package just passed, it should be acting pretty good. The amount of money thrown around this last week is unprecedented in the history of the world.
It won't friken matter. The worse is yet to come.
I'm going to take up a new sport since golf is out the window for now - beer Olympics doing 12 oz curls - while watching the implosion of the American empire.
We were never special - just over leveraged, over confident, over propagandized, and for the most part - overly stupid.