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Everything posted by sabretooth

  1. I don't think it's out of hand to suggest that AA deserves share of the blame for shortcomings in their ability to develop players during DD's tenure as GM. If someone can show how AA should share in the credit for the good DD trades, then fine, he might deserve some credit for that too. The proof will be in the pudding regarding AA's drafts and development since 2016. I don't have a strong feel for that yet.
  2. Isn't that a function of an executive to successfully "sell" his recommendations and vision to his superiors and others of influence? Especially if investments in technology and analytics represented relatively small spends in the grand scheme of things that were already the lifeblood of other successful organizations? That cannot be a good reflection on AA, even if he was "only" the Assistant GM, and even if it was ultimately someone else's ultimate decision.
  3. DD's regime ran a lousy farm system, the third "real" GM starting with LaJoie in 1983 (excluding the McDonald, Walker, Klein brief experiments in the early 90s) over the last 40 years to fail at building a farm system. It will take a little time to fully evaluate AA's tenure as a GM in terms of player development....so far I am not aware of stories about guys who are dramatically exceeding their projections as they move through the system, or getting "fixed" while in the system.
  4. Good takes....I agree, though the total malfunctioning of player development under DD *has* to be laid at AAs feet too, right?
  5. Let's evaluate this claim objectively for a second. The claim that he traded the farm away only holds water if the guys that he traded away could have helped AA when he became GM. So let's look at the "farm" boys/prospects that DD traded away for older veterans (for the sake of argument, Tiger players who were under the age of 25 when DD traded them, and the player that was traded for them was over the age of 25)....and the player DD traded earned WAR since the beginning of 2016 after DD left Detroit. The Youth-for-Youth elimination criteria would exclude Maybin, Miller, Joyce, and Avisail Garcia, since they were traded for guys who were at or under 25 years of age. TRADE #1: Porcello for J. Cespedes: Porcello, though young at the time of the trade, was certainly not a prospect, and actually accumulated more career WAR as a Tiger before he was traded (10) than after he was traded (9), and DD flipped Ces for Fulmer, who accumulated as much WAR as Porcello did after the trade (surprise!). This clearly doesn't fit the narrative. TRADE #2: Robbie Ray traded for Shane Greene (Ray: 22 years of age, Greene: 26 years of age at the time of the trade): this is a borderline deal, since Greene was arguably still a prospect with only one half season of MLB time at the point of the trade. If we include this one, Ray had one very good season in 2017 (4.7 WAR), which eclipses anything that Greene has done, but otherwise both have been up-and-down, and Ray has been a horrible pitcher for a few seasons now. It really doesn't fit the narrative IMHO. TRADE #3: Corey Knebel for J. Soria: I know, I know, everybody ragged on DD for this one....HOWEVER, other than Knebel's 2017 season, he's been nothing special, and DD flipped Soria for JaCoby Jones as a young prospect before DD left Detroit, and Jones has worked out pretty decently for the Tigers. This also doesn't seem to fit the narrative. TRADE #4: Willy Adames for David Price (Smyly and AJax also traded, but they were no longer young or prospects): We did get a playoff berth (our last one) out of this trade, and also Price was flipped for Boyd and Norris when they were young prospects, and they have accumulated 7 WAR (Boyd) and 6 WAR (Norris) vs. Adames' 7 WAR so far. Given the "flip" for young pitchers, this also doesn't fit the narrative, though I would rather have the younger good SS at this point than the two decent pitchers. TRADE #5: Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon: yeah, OK, this was a disaster, though nobody foresaw Suarez becoming the next incarnation of Brady Anderson. Everybody, regardless of their stance on DD's performance, acknowledges that the Suarez trade was a hideous disaster, and absolutely fits the narrative. Putting Suarez aside, which was an epic fail, DD's trades overall left Avila in 2015 with a group of pretty decent/good younger players (Fulmer, who had two very good seasons and now is battling injuries, Greene, who was decent and traded, Jones, who has been a decent part-time player and who seemed to blossom a little this year, Boyd, who had two pretty good years, Norris, who appears to still have potential as a reliever) to offset the other guys that DD traded away (Porcello, who is mediocre at best, Ray, who sucks, Knebel, who sucks, and Adames, who we'd all like to have back, of course). Given that we arguably made our last successful playoff run in 2014 thanks to trading Adames, and have had two pretty decent good/young pitchers in Boyd and Norris, that trade I think can absolutely be defended/excused. The other trades worked out fine, with the exception of Suarez of course.
  6. I'm certainly way more unhappy with his choice of GM then with his payroll decisions to date. However IMO, Chris is moving too slow on the payroll side of things. I'm not saying he should have spent to compete this year, but we shouldnt be waiting for Greene and Tork to lead this offense, they are at least 3 years away from providing plus level production.
  7. They could have improved faster while keeping the payroll at or below average. They could have been in a definitive position to win and compete in the next year or two at latest....rather than the "maybe 2022?????" we speculate about right now.
  8. I don't really give a rat's pitootie what the payroll is as long as they have a good team....it appears to my untrained eye that the level of payroll required for a good team is or less in inverse proportion to the GMs ability to put together a good farm system. In that sense I completely understand and respect Chris's stated intention of building a good farm system that can replicate winning without big spend....however, of course, stated intentions about home grown talent and winning and the willingness to spend to fill gaps are nothing but hot air until they are backed up by actual results.
  9. I agree with this 100%. It's astonishing how fast teams can build themselves into winners these days without having to wait 5 years without have to spend a ton of money. The excuses that some make for AAs failures are just ridiculous in light of how many teams are in the playoffs these days without having to own a high end or even above average payroll.
  10. There is nothing that certain with Chris, he's steeped in corporate managerspeak and bland bromides. During one of our many MTS debates about payroll, the profits-first preference seemed to emerge as a likely read on Chris' statements about payroll philosophy. It's weird to hear fans express confidence that his stated intention to build a winner "when the time is right" will be implemented sooner (2021-22) rather than later, or even at all. It took his Dad for bleeding ever to get serious about hiring a winning GM. As long as hes making profit off of a losing product, why should he go balls out on spending, if "wait till next year" is now good enough for Chris and for the fans that still show up and, along with the TV contracts, pay the bills and make some money? I dont know what Chris will settle for on the field long term, but until he proves otherwise, my bet is that he's more about profits than winning when it comes to the Tigers.
  11. Just as a quick aside - I literally have not watched or listened to a single live sporting event in 2020 other than the Super Bowl. This is a first. I even managed to win in fantasy baseball without watching a single inning of live baseball, other than a few gamecast live boxscores, and a few innings of various pitchers and prospects on MLB.tv replays, just for fantasy scouting. It's kind of depressing, but I have to admit that I can live my life very happily without watching or even listening to live sports. There are many complex reasons why I dropped out of watching or listening to live sports this year....some of it is the pathetic and nearly unwatchable Detroit pro sports teams, some of it due to the politics, some of it is that I changed jobs and am very busy, some of it my absolute disgust at the MLB players and owners for their handling of the restart negotiations....I look forward to getting back into live sports again in the future, when I don't feel like shooting my TV. I did miss Dan Dickerson.
  12. I think you missed my point here. For the sake of argument I am granting that Chris wants to spend to win/compete, but only in a way that ensures positive annual cash flow, which I understand is his priority. What I'm saying is that even in that case, Chris would lack the confidence to spend to win/compete, because Avila lacks the ability to position the team to reach that level of on field success, with the required level of spending, while maintaining positive cash flow. It's a two-fold problem... I don't think Avila is very good, and secondly requiring the team to maintain annual positive cash flow, while building it up to winning/playoff status, is I think a very high bar for any GM, especially Avila, who is not very good.
  13. Yeah, this is a pretty bleak landscape. Michigan and Michigan State basketball seem like our most reliable chance for success. The thing that really amazes me is that there aren't even any compelling individual pro players to watch, nor a pro team that seems to be on the cusp. Before the last few years there were always I think a couple of "gotta see this guy" level players like Isiah, Sims, Barry, Tram and Lou, Stevie, Grant Hill...or during periods where big stars were lacking, like the early 2000s, the Red Wings were great. Who do we have now to market season tickets or even value paks? Stafford and Griffen? No offense to two star veterans, but I would never tune in or buy a ticket just to see these guys play. There's some anticipation that the Tigers could pull it together in a couple of years, and maybe Stevie Y will work magic at the helm of the Red Wings, but there isn't anything really happening on the field anywhere to hang a hat on. No offense to Jeimer Candelario and Willie Castro for a fine 3rd of a regular season where they looked like potentially good young players, and no offense to Tork, Greene, or Mize, but none of them are that caliber of prospect or player yet IMHO.
  14. My ultimate point is that I could believe everything that Chris Ilitch ever said about spending when the time is appropriate, and still believe that that will never happen as long as Avila is his GM, because Chris will always lack the confidence to spend and to retain annual positive cash flow simultaneously. I can't possibly know any of this, but based on the track record so far it seems likely to me that this is the case.
  15. Boy we have a helluva barometer for success around here these days 🙂
  16. There's zero evidence that he will spend to compete. I'm not saying that he won't spend at some point, but his apparent priority is positive cashflow. Unless you are intimately familiar with every aspect of the organization's finances, player management and development strategies and Chris' personal thinking, it would be literally impossible to project when spending to win would improve the organization's cash flow. Even if you did know all of that it would still be a very tricky crapshoot. The bottom line is that in order to build a winning team, the owner's commitment to winning needs to come first, not the organization's cash flow. This apparent philosophy on the part of Chris Ilitch (to prioritize positive cash flow over winning), and my lack of faith in Avila's capacity to build a winner, leaves me with very little expectation for this team's future success other than they get very very lucky.
  17. Wrong. If I meant that joke in an absolute literal sense, the way you interpreted it, then I would assume that their payroll would be zero. Yoda understood what that joke meant perfectly.
  18. Ah, the Goldiggers...when I worked in Toledo, I heard about the legendary 10 and even 5 cent beer nights at the TSA....and the Slapshot-esque atmosphere that ensued.
  19. I think conversations between Avila and Chris I go something like this: Al: Hello, Chris Chris: Hi Al, how are things? Al: Great, thanks! Chris: What can I do for you, old buddy? Al: Thanks for asking -- I was thinking.... Chris: Does it involve spending? Al: Uh....a bit Chris: ehhhh Al: How about lunch? Chris: You buying again? Al: Always! Chris: We are such a team
  20. Mize's k-rate in the minors and this year at MLB are consistent at 8 per 9. His BB rate would have to be a lot lower for elite outcomes. Seems like his FB was at the root of the problem this year....hopefully this can improve dramatically.
  21. Just to be clear....there is no doubt in my mind that the Tigers, with an above average GM at the helm, and with the commitment of the owner to build at least an average payroll starting in 2021, could make major on-field strides in 2021, win 75+ games in 2021, and be competitive by 2022, with an average or maybe somewhat above average payroll. There are plenty of other teams that have gone from bad to winning since 2017 without going through a Nuclear Winter. And I'm not saying that we can be competitive because we currently have some amazing stable of young talent. We have a decent array of young players at this point, including the three #1s (which we paid a very heavy price of losing to obtain), but we don't yet have MLB-ready young stars like JV or Grandy circa 2005. Even without those two, the Tigers circa 2006 still would have been a pretty good team in 2006, probably even a winning team, if WAR is to be trusted to that extent. There's no reason other than Front Office incompetence to explain why we as fans should accept a 100-loss team in 2021. It's laughable in my opinion for fans to think like that.
  22. I would guess this as well. When things dont go well, its probably going to wind up as the 5th season in a row (starting with the majority of 2017) where this board winds up rooting for the maximum number of losses and we are again talking about selling what meager veteran assets we have for middling prospects. Hoo ******* ray. Another year in Avila ****.
  23. I dont need to have it read back to me like I'm some kind of....
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