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Ron Burgandy

MotownSports Fan
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Everything posted by Ron Burgandy

  1. To be sure, we've definitely had above-average playoff success. But our downfall each year has been the offense (with the bullpen also a contributing factor). Even the series we've won have generally been due to pitching, not huge offensive explosions. As well as Dombrowski's vision of pitching staff construction works in the playoffs, I think it has become clear that his offensive model does not.
  2. I agree, but the reason we were able to extend the window was by making a controversial decision to trade Granderson (along with acquiring Cabrera, of course). We can extend the window again, but it's going to take some tough decisions. A smart, forward looking organization trades Scherzer now. Something like Rendon, Storen/Clippard, and an B-level OF prospect from the Nationals would work. A smart, forward-looking organization also unloads Fielder if at all possible, to acquire the added roster & payroll flexibility. Sure, if we make those moves now, our odds of winning a WS decline somewhat next year. But I don't think they decline significantly enough as to warrant not making the move (i.e., I'd say we have a 20-25% chance of a WS now, and would have a ~15-20% chance after making the moves, assuming we use the Fielder $$ to upgrade the rest of the roster). Given that this team couldn't finish the deal in 2011, 2012, or 2013, I don't see why they are any more likely to in 2014 with what will be an older team. At the same time, though, even if we dump Fielder and Scherzer now we would still be favored to win the Central. Cleveland may have finished one game back, but in reality we were much more than 1 game better than the Tribe, and will be again in 2014 with or without Prince and Max. In any event, if given the choice between reducing the odds of a WS next year, but extending our window of contention for 3-4 more years, I'll choose the latter every time. While there is of course a great deal of luck in any short series, I don't think bad luck alone explains our recent inability to finish the deal in the playoffs. Offensively, you need to have guys that do not strike out an inordinate amount (because you are facing elite pitchers on a more regular basis), and guys that can take the extra base to increase your scoring opportunities. You aren't going to hit a ton of HRs in the playoffs, and you aren't going to string together 3+ hits with any regularity.
  3. While difficult, I don't think trading Prince Fielder is as impossible as some believe. We may need to take back another team's bad contract, but that can definitely be a net-positive for both clubs. Fielder for Kinsler would make a lot of sense for both clubs. There would obviously need to be some other parts in there (Porcello? Harrison?), plus potentially some $$ from Detroit, but that trade would upgrade both clubs in my opinion. Moving Fielder is a must. Everything else falls into place with him gone. Few seem to be mentioning it, but the reason Cabrera was hurt all season was because he was playing out of position at 3B (most of his injuries occurred on defense). With Miggy back at 1B, we then don't have to play Castellanos out of position when he is ready. The infield defense improves significantly. I also move Scherzer this off-season for the best package of upper-level corner OF and/or 2B prospects I can get. With a new manager coming on board, I'll gladly lower my chances of a 2014 WS title if it means we can dramatically improve our chances in 2015 and beyond.
  4. I'd probably pass at 5/$75, unless we prefer Sanchez long-term to Scherzer (or suspect Max will cost a significant amount more), in which case I'd sign Anibal and prepare to let Max walk...
  5. I can't see us resigning Sanchez AND going after Torii Hunter (who is due to fall off a cliff any season now anyway). If inking Anibal to a new contract is a priority, then I think we'll be in the market for a more modest upgrade for LF. I'd be fine with any of Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, or Coco Crisp (assuming the trade cost isn't too high) for a year or two. If you give one of that trio LF and the #2 hole in the lineup, then you can afford to go with a Dirks/Garcia platoon in RF, IMO (or a cheap RH hitting RF if Garcia is better served starting in the minors). The wild card is just how badly Mike Illitch wants to win. I've seen several people speculate that we could be a destination for Josh Hamilton. If money really is no object at this point, then I could see us resigning Sanchez for 4/$60, and then giving the same type of deal to Hamilton as well to play LF. But Hunter just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He's not that good, and likely to be more expensive than he's worth. I see us either making more inexpensive tweaks (like an Angel Pagan) or going all in on Hamilton.
  6. I agree Cespedes was far from a sure thing. All I meant by the hindsight line was that I'm not just questioning the Fielder signing now after his abysmal post-season, I wasn't a huge fan of the move at the time: http://www.motownsports.com/forums/detroit-tigers/95790-tigers-sign-prince-fielder-9-year-deal-7.html#post2668866 Had I known then that we had Cespedes effectively locked up, but let him go to sign Prince, I would have been more critical of the move, in spite of Cespedes' uncertainty.
  7. I posted this in the thread in the MLB board, but thought it might get more attention over here: I apologize if this has already been posted, but I think it may have gotten lost in the shuffle during the post-season run: AL Central Notes: Cespedes, Boesch, Francona, Soria: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com I wasn't a huge fan of the Fielder signing at the time, so this is not complete hindsight, but I can't help wonder what might have been. If V-Mart doesn't go down, and we ink Cespedes, not only do I think we'd have been a better team in 2012, but we'd have been built much better for the future as well.
  8. I apologize if this has already been posted, but I think it may have gotten lost in the shuffle during the post-season run: AL Central Notes: Cespedes, Boesch, Francona, Soria: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com I wasn't a huge fan of the Fielder signing at the time, so this is not complete hindsight, but I can't help wonder what might have been. If V-Mart doesn't go down, and we ink Cespedes, not only do I think we'd have been a better team in 2012, but we'd have been built much better for the future as well.
  9. But you're only focusing on the offense. Again, I think the layoff absolutely contributed to Verlander's rusty performance in Game 1. There is a reason pitchers tend to pitch worse on extra rest than they do on normal or even short rest.
  10. When has the entire team ever had 5 straight days off at the ASB? And when have we gone straight from those off days into a series against a team that just played two days before?
  11. I can't tell if this is sarcastic or not, but if serious I completely disagree. You can't "learn" to overcome an abnormally long layoff, especially when hardly any of these players were even on the 2006 squad. And I think the layoff very much affected Verlander yesterday.
  12. I agree that the press coverage has been heavily slanted, but also agree that it really isn't that big a deal. At the same time, though, I suspect that if it were the Oakland As doing this to New York, they'd be getting more credit than Detroit is for doing the same thing.
  13. I was quite skeptical of the move, but so far I have to admit I've been quite impressed by Cabrera's transition. Obviously it is still very early, but even the advanced defensive metrics so that he has been right around league average defensively at 3B. If he can just hold his own there, it would be a pretty significant accomplishment, and really set this team up well the next couple years when V-Mart returns.
  14. Two thoughts: Ohio beating Michigan wasn't that big an upset. It was just a bad matchup for Michigan. With the exception of Hardaway, Ohio was equally or more athletic than Michigan at every position (Burke and Cooper are a draw). Add in the fact that Ohio is one of the best perimeter defensive teams in the country, and an Ohio victory wasn't surprising. That's not to say that Ohio is better than Michigan in the grand scheme of things, but head-to-head I think Ohio would win somwhere from 45-50% of the time. Second, calling OSU "Ohio" is most certainly offensive to Ohio University. By definition, if you are calling someone a different name to get under their skin, then it is an insult, not a compliment. If everytime I took a crap I said I just took a "Michigan", there is no way to interpret that so that it isn't an insult to Michigan. Similarly, the implication of calling OSU "Ohio" is that being called "Ohio" is an insult. The problem is that Ohio is a registered trademark of Ohio University, which the university has been forced to sue OSU to enforce. So by increasing the association between OSU and "Ohio", Hoke & Co. aren't insulting OSU at all, but actually doing them a service. It's Ohio University who is harmed by it. It's petty, childish, and stupid. If Hoke really wanted to get under OSU's skin, he'd call them by their original name, Ohio A&M, which is both annoying and demeaning to the Sucknuts. But calling them Ohio only increases the school's false sense of importance and state representation.
  15. Guillen's final career HR will always be among my favorites: Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | LAA@DET: Guillen cranks a solo homer to right field - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia
  16. Per various sources on Twitter...
  17. 5. You do not sign a player to a 9 year, $214 million contract when you already have a superior player at his position in the prime of his career, especially when said superior player won't be able to competently field any other position on the diamond.
  18. NL Central suddenly has an identity crisis - ESPN
  19. I'm not sure that that's clear, although even assuming that it is, I think the odds of Reyes earning the contract he received over 6 years is much higher than the odds that Fielder earns his over 9 years.
  20. I'd have played Reyes at short, and moved Peralta to 3B (or traded him if he was unhappy about it). I honestly believe that we win more games next year with Peralta-Reyes-Santiago/Raburn-Cabrera around the horn than Cabrera-Peralta-Santiago/Raburn-Fielder.
  21. On the current roster, I agree. This is why I'd have preferred to sign Jose Reyes, if the budget had room for an extra $24 million in salary. I think he would have helped this team more than Prince, personally, given our needs and roster construction. Even after VMart had gone down, you would probably still have had room in the budget to trade for a Carlos Lee or sign a Carlos Pena as well, without going much over what we're paying to Prince alone (let alone for a far fewer number of years).
  22. We have generous ownership right now. But I'd be very surprised if Illitch is still in charge by 2017, and I'd be even more surprised if his successor is willing to run the franchise at as big a deficit as Illitch has been.
  23. One thing that hasn't been debated much is whether we had to go all the way to 9 years. It's obviously difficult to know for sure without sitting in the negotiation sessions, but by all accounts Prince's other primary suitor, Washington, wasn't willing to go above 6 or 7 years. Now comes word that the other mystery team in on Fielder was the Dodgers, who made a 7 year offer. I get that he wasn't going to come here for 5 years, or maybe even 6. But wouldn't an 8 year deal have gotten it done? Or alternatively, couldn't we have given him a couple million more per year than the Dodgers over 7 years. The difference between 7 years and 8 or 9 may seem trivial, but I'd feel much better about this deal if it were a shorter one.
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