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Ron Burgandy

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Everything posted by Ron Burgandy

  1. For me it's primarily a health issue. He's much more exposed at 3B fielding bunts, etc., than he is at 1B which is a more stationary position. It's impossible to say for sure, but I suspect his groin/abdominal issues wouldn't have been nearly as severe this year if he were at 1B.
  2. Good observation. I think there might be something to that, and I think that is probably a good thing. From a recent ESPN column: What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
  3. I tend to agree. If we don't trade for a long-term solution at the position this off-season, then I'd prefer to sign a guy like Ellis to a short-term deal for less money than Infante will likely require. I don't think we'd see much of a drop-off in production going forward, either.
  4. Potentially a perennial All-Star 2B. He was originally a 3B, but slide over to 2B this year, with strong results based on the defensive metrics. An Iglesias and Rendon DP combination would really solidify the middle of the diamond for the next 5 years.
  5. I'll take the former, personally. Rendon locks down an IF position for the next 5 years on the cheap, extending our championship window significantly into the future. The odds of winning a WS next year with or without Max aren't so appreciably different as to warrant passing that up, especially considering that it would also free up more than $20 million (Max's arbitration award plus bypassing the need to resign Infante), allowing us to improve the club elsewhere. I think that type of deal might actually make us better in 2014 (or at worst a hair worse), and infinitely better positioned for 2015 on.
  6. Deeper in that article Rosenthal talks about Texas looking to move Kinsler or Andrus. We've discussed Kinsler already, but what about a straight Fielder for Andrus swap? Both are bad contracts, Fielder being owed roughly $170 million over the next 7 years, and Andrus $126 million over the next 9 years. Fielder's AAV is obviously quite a bit higher, so we might have to give them some money to make it even. However, Fielder is a better fit in Texas, and Andrus could potentially give us a dynamite double play combo for the foreseeable future pairing with Iglesias (assuming one could slide over to 2B). It's probably a long-shot, though.
  7. I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that Benoit will want to close. When we first signed him there was a lot of talk that he's more comfortable in a set-up role. Nor did I think he looked completely comfortable in the closer's role this year. If he prioritizes pitching in a set-up role, then he could very well be willing to accept set-up money. In which case I could potentially see some combination of him and Balfour or Nathan (more likely the former, personality issues aside, since he'll presumably be a little cheaper).
  8. Again, as I said I don't think that is the case myself. But it is one potential interpretation. At a minimum, it shows that we aren't operating in a world where money is no object, as Veras could have capably filled the role of 5th or 6th best reliever...
  9. Also, while I get Veras was mediocre, he was nevertheless one of our 3 or 4 best relievers. Dombrowski has never shown a great ability to retool a championship-caliber bullpen on the fly, so the fact that our only decent relievers under contract for next year are currently Smyly, Al-Al, and Rondon has me a little worried, especially since Smyly should be moving to the rotation, and Al-Al and Rondon do not inspire any confidence at all.
  10. The decision not to exercise Veras' option certainly makes the trade of Vasquez more disappointing. I thought it was worth it at the time on the assumption we had locked up a key cog of the 2014 bullpen. Now, not so much. Also, while I don't think this is the case, this decision (along with the decision not to pursue Brayan Pena) could indicate we have some budget constraints for next year...
  11. Good to know, thanks for the info. Although it does make me question Castellanos' ranking on the various prospect lists. I get that his bat projects, but given his actual production thus far, he doesn't project as an impact corner OFer, and hardly worthy of Top 20 MLB prospect status. In any event, it still doesn't change my thinking on the wisdom of moving Prince this off-season if at all possible.
  12. Speaking personally, it has little to do with his playoff performance, and everything to do with the fact that he is a poor allocation of resources for this team given his dwindling regular season production. That problem is only compounded by the fact that he is going to force us to play several others out of position moving forward, all because he's too stubborn to move to DH despite being the worst defensive 1B in the league (all the more frustrating given that our current DH would actually be a significantly better defensive option at 1B).
  13. You're right, I had the number wrong in my head. $55 version $62 million, though, my point is the same. Again, the point wasn't to debate exactly what Ellsbury will receive (although I think $100/6 is fairly realistic), but just to point out how the team could be markedly improved by freeing up Fielder's $24 million. Regardless, you also thought that Carlos Beltran would get a huge deal a couple years ago, if memory serves, when he didn't, so I don't think your track record on free agent contract predictions is the strongest, with all due respect. I've never seen any report that Castellanos would be unable to stick at 3B. He's playing the OF because of Cabrera, pure and simple. And since he's transitioned to LF all season, they weren't about to put him back at 3B for a few innings this September. I think that to assume that Fielder provides significantly more protection than Martinez hitting 4th based simply on their respective HR totals is a questionable assumption, as opposing teams have to consider more than just the threat of a HR. Martinez is a better hitter for average, and also a switch-hitter, and therefore would decrease the odds that a LHP would pitch around Cabrera in order to get to Prince. Thus, I think that on the whole any difference in protection is fairly negligible. Regardless, we have to make our assumptions on a going forward basis. Fielder has been in decline for a few years now. Yes, I suspect he'll hit better in 2014 than in 2013, but his trendline is downward and unlikely to significantly improve over the course of the next 5 years. So even if he provided more protection over the last couple years, there is no guarantee that pitchers will remain equally scarred of him in the future if he settles into a 25-30 HR, 800 OPS player. Given that, I'd rather move his salary now, if we can. As for Kinsler, even if you take his road stats as his true talent-level (which I don't think is necessarily accurate), he's still basically the equivalent of Omar Infante, only with more speed. Sure he would be a bit overpaid for that production (and again, my point wasn't to argue whether this hypothetical was the best use of resources, but merely illustrative of the potential benefits of trading Fielder), but well worth the cost to unload $100 extra million in salary obligations to Prince. The other flaw in your whole analysis is that you completely overlook the offensive benefits of having a true table-setter at the top of the lineup in Ellsbury, along with the significant defensive improvements we'd gain from my hypothetical lineup versus the status quo. So, despite all your tables, I still think it is pretty clear that my team would be better than the status quo, for roughly the same cost. And thus, the point remains that freeing up Fielder's money now can significantly improve the club moving forward, despite the loss of his (dwindling) production.
  14. I know I'm a day late, and that you relish in being obtuse, but I'm going to respond anyway. You seem to think that any decision to trade Fielder would be foolish. Let's just say, though, that we were hypothetically able to pull off the following (I realize this may not be 100% realistic, or even necessarily the best use of resources...it's simply for illustrative purposes): Fielder + Porcello to Texas for Ian Kinsler (4 years, $55 million left) Sign Jacoby Ellsbury for a 6 year, $100 million contract Giving us: LF - Ellsbury 2B - Kinsler 1B - Cabrera DH - Martinez RF - Hunter C - Avila 3B - Castellanos CF - Jackson SS - Iglesias That lineup would be better both offensively and defensively than the status quo, and cost roughly the same. I really don't even see much room for argument on the point, although I'm sure you'll do your best to play the role of contrarian.
  15. I agree with this. My point is just that it isn't a total crapshoot, with all 8 teams equally likely to win. No one team is an overwhelming facorite, but some are more likely to advance than others.
  16. I disagree. It is not a total crap shoot. There is a reason that the Oakland A's are 1-7 in playoff series over the last 13 years, and it isn't just bad luck. Similarly, there is a reason that the Minnesota Twins have always struggled come October, even after stellar regular seasons. Some teams are better constructed for success in a short-series than others.
  17. But that assumes that all 8 teams have an equal probablity of winning the WS in any given year. I don't think that is the case.
  18. Again, I agree. I just don't have time to pull it right now. And the question I was responding to was just focused on our individual team performance in our various series, hence the limited scope of the initial data.
  19. I don't have time to compute it all right now, unfortunately. But I agree that would be helpful.
  20. For sure, if we can get Stanton I won't complain. But in the abstract, I think we need to diversify things more. In hindsight, we'd have been much better off signing Victorino this past off-season, for instance, than Hunter.
  21. Good question. Here's the data: 2011 ALDS - We averaged 3.4 runs/game, after averaging 4.85 runs/game during the regular season 2011 ALCS - 4.6 runs/game 2012 ALDS - 3.4 runs/game (reg. season average 4.48 runs/game) 2012 ALCS - 4.75 runs/game 2012 WS - 1.5 runs/game 2013 ALDS - 3.4 runs/game (reg. season average 4.91 runs/game) 2013 ALCS - 3.0 runs/game So out of 7 playoff series the last 3 years, we've only exceeded our season average in 1. And we've only exceeded 3.5 runs/game in 2 of the 7 series. That, to me, is more than just bad luck, and more than just a depressed run environment in the playoffs.
  22. Sure, but the question is why does this keep happening to us? Why is it that our offense shuts down every October? Yes, run scoring is generally lower in October. But I think our problems go beyond that. At this point, it's more than just bad luck. It's systemic.
  23. The idea is you want to have balance. We've depended almost entirely on the long-ball in recent years, and we've seen the results. Time after time, our offense gets shut down by superior pitching in the playoffs. Unless we hit a HR, or can string together 3-4 singles, we don't score. I'd rather have a blend. Some big boppers in the middle, along with some guys who can get on-base and create scoring opportunities with their speed. Over the last few years I've really come to believe that playoff success is dictated by more than just luck. Some teams are better constructed to win in October than others. High strikeout squads can be abused by the elite, power pitching you see with more regularity in October than in the regular season. Similarly, station-to-station offensive clubs overly dependent on the HR can also get shut down when superior pitching doesn't make mistakes (along with generally playing in colder, thicker air in October). I really think you want a team that can make contact, take the extra base, and occassionally hit a HR in the playoffs. We do the first and third, but our lack of base running ability really came back to cost us this year, not only in the cases of the most egregious baserunning blunders, but also as evidenced by our ridiculously large number of GIDP this October.
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