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Ron Burgandy

MotownSports Fan
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Everything posted by Ron Burgandy

  1. I could be wrong, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to escape one long term albatross contract only to immediately hand another one out in free agency. Choo, Ellsbury, and Cano are all very nice players, but all will be overpaid. Extending Cabrera makes sense. Extending Scherzer potentially makes sense (not if the reports of him seeking more money than Felix or JV are true). Signing Beltran or (less so) Granderson makes sense. 6+ years and $100+ million to another FA does not.
  2. If we sign someone like Beltran for 2/$30, we can replace most of Fielder's lost offensive production with a much shorter contract commitment. If we are also willing to deploy Cabrera flexibly between 1B and 3B depending on matchups, we could have a really nice rotation between LF/DH for Beltran, 1B/DH for VMart, and 3B/1B/DH for Miggy, keeping all three much fresher but keeping their bats in the lineup most days. Add in Kinsler, and I think that is a better team in 2014, and one much better situated for 2015 and beyond.
  3. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Thanks for finally motivating me to expand my ignore list. Carry on.
  4. I'm talking about total production, including defense and base running, not just offensive production. Fielder was a 1B with a WAR under 2. That isn't difficult to replace. I don't necessarily think Kinsler will replace Infante's total production (although I don't think it is as unlikely as many do). The point is that no one on the FA market at 2B was likely to aside from Cano. So to say that we can replace Prince ignores the fact we also were highly unlikely to replace Infante's production, and were going to be overpaying to try to do so one way or the other. Again, I don't think this is the right way to look at the financials. We were going to be paying at least $8-10 million for 2B. Sure Kinsler is overpaid, but assuming I'm correct about our likely 2B outlay in the FA market, swapping Fielder for Kinsler nets us an extra $17-19 million for 2014 and 2015. Why is that? Prince's bat speed dropped precipitously this year. And his 2012 production was bouyed by unsustainable K rates and BABIP. Sure his 2013 struggles could partially be divorce-related, but given his body type and 3 year trend line, I wouldn't bank on it. I think Kinsler is almost as likely to rebound, although I don't think either necessarily will.
  5. How long did that take you to dig up? And where did I say I was never wrong? The difference is that I'm not definitively stating that it is almost impossible for us to replace Prince's production. It's Nov. 21st. There are still nearly 3 months until spring training. There are plenty of possibilities for us to upgrade the roster, regardless of what the pool of FA 3B or 1B consists of. You apparently think we'll be unable to replace Fielder. I think you are wrong. Time will tell who is right. But I'm feeling pretty confident.
  6. Because the only possible reason why Cabrera can't duplicate his career-year pace from 2013 is the loss of Fielder. You can't be this dumb, can you?
  7. First of all, if Prince continues to hit like he did in 2013, it won't be all that hard to match his production. Second, we could have your exact same argument regarding 2B if we didn't fill the hole with Kinsler. Aside from Cano, how many 2B available on the free agent market were going to replace what Infante gave us last year? Even Infante himself was unlikely to, and was/is going to be overpaid. Your prediction track record is pretty brutal. Two off seasons ago you said Beltran would get a huge FA contract. He got 2/$26. Earlier this off-season you said there was little chance we'd trade Fielder (let alone for Kinsler). We did. Your surety that there is no way we can replace Fielder's production will likely turn out the same.
  8. Yeah, no way you can ever win a WS with Mike Napoli as your 1B/DH. If Cabrera is intent on staying at 3B (which I don't believe just on the basis of a Tim Kurkijan tweet), then Napoli wouldn't be a bad option. He would replace most of Prince's production at 1B for 2014, and could form a nice DH/1B combo with Miggy for 2015-16.
  9. If our only option at 3B was to sign a free agent, I'd be worried too. Fortunately we have both in-house options (Cabrera, Castellanos) and trade possibilities as well.
  10. I agree that we aren't particularly likely to sign Choo or Ellsbury to a long-term deal after just escaping from a different long-term commitment, but I'm not sure Kinsler's presence makes much of a difference. If we were to sign Choo or Ellsbury, I'd hit him leadoff, and put Kinsler in the #2 slot, with Hunter moving back to 5th or 6th. Kinsler is really well suited to hit second in my view.
  11. I actually think Kinsler could hit really well in Comerica. He's got the gap power and speed to take advantage of the big alleys in Detroit. I think Fielder will put up big HR totals in Arlington, but my guess is that when defense and base running are factored in, we don't experience much of a drop off, if any, by swapping Kinsler for Fielder over the next 3 years.
  12. I'd guess something like .270/.320/.400. But a lot of potential variance. .280/.350/.450 wouldn't surprise me, nor would .240/.280/.320.
  13. Another thought: How much would Kinsler make in free agency this off-season? If Peralta is credibly seeking 3/$45 million, I don't think it is crazy to think Kinsler would get 3-4 years for $45-50 million. So the overpay is really only $10-15 million over 4 years. Sure we could probably have gotten Infante for a bit less, but all in all Kinsler is well worth the cost to get out of the Fielder contract.
  14. There are two ways to look at the money: 1) Subtract the cost of Kinsler + the $30 million from what was owed to Prince. This makes intuitive sense, but fails to consider that we were almost certainly going to have to shell out some $$ for a 2B this off-season (Hernan Perez was not a viable option). So in my mind, the second way of analyzing the financial impact is actually more accurate: 2) Subtract the difference between the cost of Kinsler and our next most likely alternative (i.e., Kinsler's $16 million in 2014 minus Infante's likely $10 million), and then subtract that + the $30 million from what was owed to Prince. If you analyze it like that, we really just saved $19 million for 2014 and 2015. Assuming Infante would have gotten a 3 year deal, we then save $14 million in 2016 (Prince's $24 million minus the $6 million sweetener to Texas and the extra $4 to Kinsler), $7 million in 2017 (Prince's $24 million minus Kinsler's extra year at $11 million and the $6 million sweetener), $13 million in 2018 (Prince's $24 million minus Kinsler's buy-out and the $6 million sweetener), and $18 million in 2019 and 2020 (Prince's $24 million minus the $6 million sweetener).
  15. Uh, you do realize that Kinsler was rumored to be moving to 1B to accommodate Profar, not because Kinsler couldn't handle 2B, right?
  16. Kinsler is actually pretty solid defensively. And offensively he's at worst league average. Worst case he's Omar Infante for a couple million more than Infante would have cost.
  17. Kinsler is at most only about a win worse per year than Fielder right now. This move doesn't really set us back that much in 2014 (plus we still have plenty of time to upgrade), and sets us up much better from 2015-2020.
  18. This makes me like the deal a little less. Assuming that is divided equally across the 7 years, we're really only saving $4 million per year the next few years, with much bigger savings on the back end. I still make the deal, though.
  19. Hopefully quite a bit less. The Crasnick tweet was interesting. I'd posted the same thing re Cabrera's health at 3B.
  20. Kinsler's contract isn't that bad. Infante is likely looking at at least 3/$30. Kinsler is worth at least a couple million more. At worst a $2-3 million/year overpay. Easily worth it to escape Fielder's contract.
  21. Infante was going to cost upwards of 3/$30 (if not more). Kinsler at worst should give us roughly the same production. The extra year and $30 million is easily worth it to move Fielder. If I'm DD, I still trade Scherzer. The Prince move is a downgrade for 2014, so no reason to keep Max one last season. My Scherzer for Rendon/Clippard deal makes even more sense now. Slot Rendon at 3B, and sign Beltran to play LF, and this team is built to contend now and in the future.
  22. I've got to post this here too...called this one last month. Makes complete sense for both teams, a win-win.
  23. I completely called this one. Nailed it. High five!
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