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IdahoBert

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Everything posted by IdahoBert

  1. Would the AFL be considered AAA level or something between AA-AAA?
  2. Watch out. Richie Aprile is a constant reminder to exercise caution.
  3. Will there be plenty of bread and wine at the Jesusland Theme Park? Or will their Jesus turn water into grape juice only?
  4. I saw on the news last night that Canadian officials were deluged with calls from the US by people wanting to moving there. Takes 25 months to get a work visa...I think most folks will calm down in a few days and decide to make life miserable for George Bush instead.
  5. I thought she was lamenting that fundamentalists present themsleves as the only people with real values. We all share lots of values in common, so it's annoying for one group to declare not only a monopoly on Christian values but all values as well.
  6. It's a real shame that the gist of tiger337's post has been ignored. The Republican's did a great job of speaking to people's hearts about security, family etc. The Democrats spoke more to people's minds. Reich is saying that the Democrats should reach people the same way the Republicans did. This is not emotional manipulation, it's reaching people where they live.A few years ago a book by Michael Lerner was making the rounds called "The Politics of Meaning." The idea of the book was better than the book itself, so most smartypants "progressives" dismissed it and we saw the results in Tuesday's election. The gist of it is that to communicate you need to help people find meaning in a world view that makes sense and helps them feel good. The facts fit into this larger context and are given value by this context. The Republicans did that and the Democrats didn't, so enough of the facts that the Dem's marshalled fell on deaf ears and the Republicans won.
  7. That would help change the balance of power. Thanks!! We'll take 'em!
  8. I love SpongeBob and although it's probably only a renter I'll take the kids to see it. Polar Express is a great book but I worry about the "some kids say Santa doesn't exist" remark for my youngest girl. I always decline to read that part when she's listening to the book.
  9. 'I'm out!" --From the Master of Your Domain episode-- (Did Jerry shake his hand?)
  10. We do indeed agree. I've been a snippy dolt all day today and I'm sorry if I seemed short.
  11. I hear you but Bush hasn't been too fiscally conservative lately himself.
  12. More efficient methods of getting their voters to the polls would have helped but this is only a short term solution. And you are right, they do not need to win the religious right, just peel off more people than they are able to do now. Smug secular intellectuals with a disdain for religion are not good at this, though. It will take some truly literal "soul searching" for them to figure this out. The Black church is a good place to begin.
  13. It's not an essay on polling samples, it's a poem. I'm a Christian and I don't hold to values that require me to exclude gay people from full participation in society. I'm pretty sure Thomas Jefferson never went to church. He was a deist.
  14. Until the partisan war of the Republican Party is over, the struggle continues. Last I looked at this thread it was about 2004 Election Issues.
  15. I don't understand how an unwillingness to admit to mistakes in Iraq is somehow a form of deep political insight; or why the simplistic adoption of pre-modern religious pronouncements on gay people is forward looking.
  16. It isn't intended for you. You have eyes and cannot see, and ears and cannot hear.
  17. I'm sorry On behalf of Ohio, I want to apologize to the rest of the country. --I'm sorry for the liberals who didn't vote because they said, "It wouldn't make a difference." --I'm sorry for the liberals who wrote in Nader to "make a statement." --I'm sorry that areas of high-density population within the African American community had to make do with one or two voting machines for each district while predominantly white, upper-class areas such as Upper Arlington have six or more. --I'm sorry that those left waiting in line way past the time polls closed (one district -- again, in a neighborhood with a majority population of African Americans, expected the last voter to cast his/her ballot at around midnight though the polls closed at 7:30pm) were given provisional ballots, which may not even get counted. --I'm sorry that 2 out of 3 voters want discrimination placed on our state constitution in the form of a ammendment that would strip gay couples of their rights. --I'm sorry that somehow in Ohio (and in the rest of the country apparently), "faith" and "values" have become synonymous with a specific brand of fundamentalist Christianity. --I'm sorry for our children who will inherit a ravaged environment, an impossible national debt, ruined relationships with our allies, an international reputation for being self-centered bullies, and a supreme court with no respect for women's rights. I can't believe that he won. I can't believe that he gets to continue with an administration with so little respect for anyone who isn't white, straight, Christian and male. I'm sorry. I am so so so sorry. November 3, 2004 Dawn Friedman www.thiswomanswork.com
  18. By the standards of other developed countries, the Democratic Party is moderate. The Republican's have vacated the center--there are no longer any liberal and many fewer moderate Republicans left. If the Democratic Party moves much further to the right there will be almost no reason for it to exist. Economically the Democrats have moved so far to the right that they've embraced NAFTA, free-trade and even a welfare reform bill that Reagan would have envied. They have union support but they'd betray that support the first chance they had to if need be. Only on social/cultural issues is the Democratic Party on the left; and these are "modern" postions in relation to the way other developed countries think, and not necessarily leftist in a larger sense. Gay conservatives are not at all unheard of in Europe. The Democratic party just cannot reach the armies of the religious right. They can peel off a few people on some economic issues but past that they seem unable to do much else. This is more than just a failure in strategic manuvering and campaign tactics. There is a profound dislocation in the way Democrats and the religious right think. Democrats need to articulate a moral position that drives a wedge between the Religious Right's impluse toward community and it's pre-modern attachements to certain sexual and gender issues. That's a tall order and it looks pretty hopeless to me right now. (Of course, I'm in a bad mood today).
  19. They certainly were intended for that purpose. Below is a great article on behind the scenes info concerning it.November 3, 2004 An Early Night for Viewers Becomes a Cliffhanger By JIM RUTENBERG NEW YORK TIMES As of midafternoon, the likely outcome yesterday appeared clear. Polling data streaming into the broadcast and cable news networks indicated that nearly every state that had been in contention after eight months of hard campaigning was breaking for Senator John Kerry. President Bush, it seemed, would likely be a one-term president, just like his father. But shortly before the evening newscasts President Bush's campaign aides had words of warning for reporters and producers: Don't believe everything you see. And so began a battle of wills in which the president's advisers worked furiously behind the scenes, and sometimes on the air, to keep the networks from acting on the information from surveys of voters leaving the polls. Mr. Kerry's aides worked to bolster those numbers. And the networks strived to call the race as quickly as possible without making any mistakes. All sides had fresh memories of 2000, when flawed polling data and vote tabulations in Florida led the networks to call the race for Al Gore, then for Mr. Bush, then for neither. Mr. Bush's aides said the premature calls depressed his vote in Florida, while Mr. Gore said they sent him into the recount looking like a sore loser. From the start, the cable and broadcast networks made a big show of their newfound caution. And as the evening progressed, caution came to look increasingly prudent. As in 2000, there were again doubts about the reliability of the polling data. Then, differing interpretations emerged about the Ohio vote, again pushing the uncertainty of a winner into the early morning. In a move they might not have done in 2000, the networks held off from making early calls on states like South Carolina and Virginia, which they were certain Mr. Bush had in the bag. "I enjoyed how much I've heard 'We don't know,' '' Aaron Brown, the CNN anchor, told his colleague Wolf Blitzer on camera. Mr. Blitzer responded, "We're not ashamed to say that.'' Tom Hannon, the CNN political director, told a visitor at his "decision desk" that the network was approaching the hard-fought swing states that polls had shown as too close to call "as if we were a bomb disposal team. We're being very careful as we're taking them apart and trying to figure out what's happening.'' But the National Election Pool - the new vote projection system run by the networks and The Associated Press and used by dozens of major news organizations, including The New York Times - was indicating that the caution was perhaps unnecessary. Several waves of data about the national popular vote showed Mr. Kerry beating Mr. Bush by two to three percentage points. Early polling data from the states showed Mr. Kerry beating Mr. Bush in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And two out of three surveys of people leaving polls in Florida showed him winning there, too. (The third wave had the two candidates tied.) In short, Mr. Kerry seemed on the verge of winning the three states that most pundits believed could sway the election. Based on that data there was a pervasive sentiment within the corridors of Fox News Channel, beginning as early as late afternoon, that the race would be locked up long before midnight in Mr. Kerry's favor. While urging caution, John Moody, senior vice president at Fox News, said "there are indications" that the election will be over much earlier than in 2000. Over at NBC, Brian Williams, the NBC News correspondent and soon-to-be anchor of "NBC Nightly News," said "People were thinking they may have to make some reservations for Boston tomorrow morning.'' While the tone of the networks' on-air coverage did little to betray the inside knowledge, some clues, however subtle, seeped out early that the night might belong to Mr. Kerry. On ABC News, George Stephanopoulos, the host of "This Week,'' said, "Democrats are feeling good, feeling confident; the Republicans a little apprehensive.'' And in what may have been a Freudian slip, Martha MacCallum, one of the anchors on Fox News, referred to Senator Kerry as "President Kerry," just after 8:30 p.m. Those kinds of comments and slips were not going unnoticed at Mr. Bush's campaign headquarters, where aides believed the polling data - particularly from Florida - to be skewed. "It was really different from what we'd seen and it laid a foundation for the evening's coverage that was based on a flawed model,'' said Nicolle Devenish, Mr. Bush's campaign communications director. "The coverage that ensued was 'Bush team worried; Kerry team giddy.' The coverage of that was based on a falsehood.'' Concerned that the tone - along with polling data seeping out on the Internet - would affect voter turnout on the West Coast, the Bush team continued their push. "People on the West Coast are watching what happens on the East Coast,'' Ms. Devenish said. "The whole kind of formula for an Election Day is a turnout mission and certainly when there's reporting based on inaccurate data it is not helpful.'' Mr. Bush's aides had some evidence to back up their claim. The national polls were showing far more women voting than men - an anomaly that did not seem to add up. "Either the data is wrong, or the demographics of the electorate has changed dramatically,'' said Mark McKinnon, a top strategist for Mr. Bush. An official with the National Election Pool, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it did appear that women - who tend to prefer Democrats - were overrepresented in the national poll. But, this official said, the same problem did not appear in the state polls, which were far more important and indicated Mr. Kerry was ahead. And producers at three major news organizations said they had come to the same conclusion. But after polls closed, and as more data trickled in, Mr. Bush's aides said they noticed new anomalies. All of the networks had hesitated to call Virginia and South Carolina for Mr. Bush to some part because polling data showed that Mr. Kerry was actually running ahead of him in Virginia by one point and was nipping at his heels in South Carolina, according to Matthew Dowd, Mr. Bush's chief campaign strategist. "The exits said we would lose Virginia by one. We are probably going to carry it by eight,'' Mr. Dowd wrote in an e-mail message shortly before 10 p.m. "Exits said we were going to lose South Carolina by six. We will win it by at least 10.'' Bush campaign officials gathered producers who were huddled at their Virginia headquarters and hit the phones and BlackBerries with a message: "The early exit models undercounted Republicans.'' Similar conversations were taking place throughout the media landscape. "I get all this stuff on my BlackBerry: buy this, don't buy that,'' Mr. Williams said, acknowledging, "it may temper how you take in new information, though.'' Bill Wheatley, an NBC News vice president, called the early polling information "junk," adding, "The White House has been spinning us very hard, especially on Florida.'' And the Bush campaign seemed to have achieved at least some of what it wanted. "The news from inside the Kerry camp, it's not discouraged yet, but not nearly as encouraging as earlier in the evening,'' Dan Rather, the CBS News anchor, told viewers. On the second floor of the CBS News Broadcast Center in Manhattan, John Roberts, the network's senior White House correspondent, was sifting through the mix of polling data and vote tabulations. "Much of what you're seeing is based on very sophisticated exit polls,'' he said. "But it's true that in the end, this election will be decided on some very old ways of voting." As Mr. Rather put it after 11 p.m., "Put on a cup of coffee, this race is far from over.'' Within two hours - first on Fox News, then on NBC and MSNBC - the race seemed indeed over as these networks declared Mr. Bush the victor in Ohio. "It's hard to see how George Bush is not going to be re-elected president of the United States,'' Tom Brokaw, the NBC anchor, said. But as the producers at CBS News saw their colleagues presenting Mr. Bush so close to victory, they decided not to follow. "We're running our own show,'' Al Ortiz, CBS's director of special events, said in the control room. Marcy McGinnis, senior vice president for news coverage, said: "Our decision desk believes it's just too close to call. There's a number of provisional ballots out there, and the information just isn't there yet.'' Now, it was Mr. Kerry's aides making the calls, warning that NBC and Fox News could live to regret the calls. "Once again, they are being premature,'' said Joe Lockhart, a top aide to Mr. Kerry. Another Florida? he was asked. "It sounds that way,'' he said. "It's just a little farther north.''
  20. Just saw Kerry conceded according to Yahoo News.
  21. The Republicans did a much better job of getting their voters to the polls. I guess all the young hip posers were too busy planning the next rave to go out and vote for Kerry.
  22. James Carville just said on CNN that it was no use putting a spin on it at 1:00 in the morning. He's talked with people on the ground in Ohio and the news is not good for Kerry. That's enough for me. Bush has won.
  23. All Bush needs is Ohio and two other states. I don't see how he could blow it at this point. Alaska's a lock. Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii are all good chances. Even that 8,000 vote lead in New Hampshire that Kerry's had for hours could be broken. Only a Red Sox-style miracle could get Kerry Ohio at this point. Fox is probably right.
  24. I wonder if the exit polls and the actual vote tallies are so different because huge numbers of people who voted before today were not counted in those polls?
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