2010 Draft Signing Thread

**RobSk** · 08-17-2010, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by cruzer1

His scouting video had him taking grounders at third, for crying out loud.

I've seen speculation that he will end up a first baseman if he makes it to the majors. True? I have no clue. However, Andy Seiler doesn't seem like the worst writer on baseball prospects:

Nick Castellanos, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL) – Castellanos continues to be slightly polarizing in the scouting community. Some scouts see him as a premier hitter in this class, while others see him as a slow future first baseman without enough upside at the plate to warrant a solid first round spot. I fall closer to the former argument, as I still see him as a future third baseman with good hitting upside, though he’s no Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas.

Seiler himself sees Castellanos as a 3rd baseman, but cites 'some scouts' as thinking he's a first sacker. Admittedly, this was written back on April 14th, so not sure what's being said now.

All that said, I'm happy we signed the guy. As I said at draft time, we've increased the 'Fuggetaboudit' factor in the Tigers farm system.

Rob

**Los Gatos** · 08-17-2010, 10:56 AM

I know it's not a surprise, but what's the story on why the Tigers didn't sign Ficociello? Too much money to sign him away from college? Not worth that money? This guy's scouting reports really intrigued me - seems kind of like a Zobrist type player.

**rockydennis** · 08-17-2010, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by Los Gatos

I know it's not a surprise, but what's the story on why the Tigers didn't sign Ficociello? Too much money to sign him away from college? Not worth that money? This guy's scouting reports really intrigued me - seems kind of like a Zobrist type player.

$$$. Amateur talent like professional talent, you generally get what you pay for. The Tigers dont like to hand out money like the Royals, Red Sox, Yankees, Pirates, or Rangers.

To me that bonus looks like a lot to Castallanos and that detered us from signing other players.

**ChrisBrown** · 08-17-2010, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by RobSk

I've seen speculation that he will end up a first baseman if he makes it to the majors. True? I have no clue. However, Andy Seiler doesn't seem like the worst writer on baseball prospects:

Nick Castellanos, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL) – Castellanos continues to be slightly polarizing in the scouting community. Some scouts see him as a premier hitter in this class, while others see him as a slow future first baseman without enough upside at the plate to warrant a solid first round spot. I fall closer to the former argument, as I still see him as a future third baseman with good hitting upside, though he’s no Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas.

Seiler himself sees Castellanos as a 3rd baseman, but cites 'some scouts' as thinking he's a first sacker. Admittedly, this was written back on April 14th, so not sure what's being said now.

His post-draft profile was a little better:

Getting back to the stuff on the field, Castellanos is as good as you’re going to get for a smooth power-hitter this year. He features one of the prettiest swings from the right side of the plate, and it projects for plus power and plus hitting. He also features average speed, sometimes better, depending on the day you see him. He should stick as a fringe-average runner in the long run once he fills out. Defense is the questionable side of his game. He features an above-average arm that should be just fine for third, but he has a slow release and fringe-average lateral range at times, along with below-average instincts off the bat. He has the raw tools to be a solid third baseman, but there’s some question about his ability to adjust there, as some think he’ll be a liability. However, he’s still one of the best offensive options in the entire class, making him a solid mid-first round candidate, though his signability is up in the air, as he values a Miami commitment quite a bit.

**sbcaptain2** · 08-17-2010, 11:59 AM

Originally Posted by DETROCKS

As seniors don't have many options, do they get offered below slot?

yes

**Glutn4Pnshmnt** · 08-17-2010, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by DETROCKS

So, he's betting that he can move up 27 slots from where he was picked this year? Yeah, I suppose that's a risk, but given the success that he's had, I could see how he might think that he can achieve that.

As seniors don't have many options, do they get offered below slot?

How much was he looking for? If it was close to 300 I think he would have signed, I thought he was looking for more than double that much.

**TonyJM** · 08-17-2010, 12:16 PM

Originally Posted by Big Toe

Maybe it's a terrible business decision but that doesn't mean it's a terrible decision. Who are we to claim to know better what's right for the kid than he himself does?

This is probably right...He wanted to get his degree and get a shot at a national title. Maybe that's worth the 100K to him (or whatever it amounts to). Still seems like a moderate embarrassment for Detroit. Green was a limited upside, pitchability guy that many folks assumed was being drafted in the fourth because he was signable for slot. It can almost always be made up later in the draft, but it's still a draft pick you don't want to waste. I don't think you get compensation for failed 4th rounders.

-Tony

**ballmich** · 08-17-2010, 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by cruzer1

It's a terrible business decision.

Most reports are that the 2011 draft class will be very deep. But if Green can push himself up into the early second round or even supplemental first round, it will probably over double the $300k offered and maybe more. It really just comes down to how confident Green is in his ablity. I don't know you can say it's a terrible decision.

**ballmich** · 08-17-2010, 01:27 PM

I found this to be a disappointing draft in general. But the latest disappointment, is that we didn't reallocate the $300k offered to Green to another player. Well, maybe they did, as it sounds like Castanellos was a last second and "tense" signee... But in losing Green, I would have like to have seen that money go to Dupra, or Kuhn, or Sanburn, or Joyce, or even Dziubczynski. Joyce would have been a spectacular replacement for Green.

The organization really put their draft class "eggs" into the Castanellos, Ruffin and Smyly. It's really pretty thin after that, and in light of the lack of high end talent, I'd like to have seen more quantity.

Obviously I don't know how these guys will develop. The organization doesn't have a track record of "coaching up" players, but maybe this is the year. But just based on face value, I grade this draft class as a solid D. Too few players with upside. Not enough quantity to think we will get someone to the majors through sheer numbers. I guess the organization likes these players better than I do, and I hope they are right.

**RobSk** · 08-17-2010, 01:32 PM

Originally Posted by ballmich

Most reports are that the 2011 draft class will be very deep. But if Green can push himself up into the early second round or even supplemental first round, it will probably over double the $300k offered and maybe more. It really just comes down to how confident Green is in his ablity. I don't know you can say it's a terrible decision.

It looks like a total failure to do a rational risk/reward. It's a Tin Cup go for the gusto screwup.

As you point out, 2011 will probably be a tougher class. Green will be identified as a tough sign, so is more likely to fall. Plus, as has been pointed out, he'll be a senior with even less leverage. Finally, of course, he's going to have to significantly improve, not just on his performance, but his overall skill rep.

The risks are obvious, including having a worse year than 2010, getting hurt, etc.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Rob

**ballmich** · 08-17-2010, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by RobSk

It looks like a total failure to do a rational risk/reward. It's a Tin Cup go for the gusto screwup.

As you point out, 2011 will probably be a tougher class. Green will be identified as a tough sign, so is more likely to fall. Plus, as has been pointed out, he'll be a senior with even less leverage. Finally, of course, he's going to have to significantly improve, not just on his performance, but his overall skill rep.

The risks are obvious, including having a worse year than 2010, getting hurt, etc.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Rob

Maybe his risk/reward analysis included the fact that most draftees never reach the majors and he's likely to be out of baseball by the age of 27 or 28. His diploma from Texas won't look too bad at that point... In fact, it could be pretty valuable contribution toward the rest of his working life.

From the opposite end of the spectrum, I hope the Tigers thought he was going to significantly improve, which is why they spent a 4th round pick on him. If not, that was a wasted selection to begin with. So perhaps Green shares the Tiger's optimism that he can become a better pitcher. And perhaps he has a plan on how he plans to achieve that. Even with the loss of leverage, teams don't try to screw their draft picks, so if he bumps himself up to the 2nd round or better, it will turn out well for him.

I don't know what went into Green's decision, but I don't know that anyone can say it was a bad decision. At the same time, I'm also not saying it's a bad move for the Tigers not to increase their offer. Perhaps just a situation that didn't come together as we'd hoped.

**rockydennis** · 08-17-2010, 03:34 PM

Originally Posted by ballmich

I found this to be a disappointing draft in general. But the latest disappointment, is that we didn't reallocate the $300k offered to Green to another player. Well, maybe they did, as it sounds like Castanellos was a last second and "tense" signee... But in losing Green, I would have like to have seen that money go to Dupra, or Kuhn, or Sanburn, or Joyce, or even Dziubczynski. Joyce would have been a spectacular replacement for Green.

The organization really put their draft class "eggs" into the Castanellos, Ruffin and Smyly. It's really pretty thin after that, and in light of the lack of high end talent, I'd like to have seen more quantity.

Obviously I don't know how these guys will develop. The organization doesn't have a track record of "coaching up" players, but maybe this is the year. But just based on face value, I grade this draft class as a solid D. Too few players with upside. Not enough quantity to think we will get someone to the majors through sheer numbers. I guess the organization likes these players better than I do, and I hope they are right.

agree with all this. I would also add that Im not worried about not signing Green but that it looks like someone didnt do the homework with his signability.

**RobSk** · 08-17-2010, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by ballmich

Maybe his risk/reward analysis included the fact that most draftees never reach the majors and he's likely to be out of baseball by the age of 27 or 28. His diploma from Texas won't look too bad at that point... In fact, it could be pretty valuable contribution toward the rest of his working life. .

Good point.

Of course, they probably wouldn't be closing UT down anytime soon, so if Cole Green were out of baseball at 26 or 27, he could finish up that senior year then. And it wouldn't cost him $300k guaranteed, either.

Rob

**Ron Burgandy** · 08-17-2010, 03:52 PM

Forgoing $300,000 isn't a bad business decision. At the end of the day, $300K isn't *that* much money. It's not going to set you up for life or anything. At most it'll buy you a modest house in a bigger city, or a less-modest house in a smaller city.

Say he slips a bit next season, and combined with the reduced leverage signs for only $150,000. After taxes, he's cost himself maybe $100,000. Should he achieve some the goals he's set for his senior year of college, I doubt that in hindsight he'd trade that extra year of college for $100K.

It seems like a pretty smart decision overall.

**hueytaxi** · 08-18-2010, 01:48 PM

Nick Castellanos article with photos at LakelandLocal:

Nick Castellanos Signs with the Tigers

**JayVee** · 08-19-2010, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by hueytaxi

Nick Castellanos article with photos at LakelandLocal:

Nick Castellanos Signs with the Tigers

No offense, but this isn't a good article.

Castellanos was not drafted on August 16th, nor was he drafted in the second round or later...

**Edman85** · 08-19-2010, 09:40 PM

And he's probably not going to suit up for the GCL Tigers either...

**plantcitytigersfan** · 08-19-2010, 11:10 PM

If Green wants to be a professional baseball player, he should have signed. Any baseball scout will tell you that a baseball player makes his money once his service years start, whether it is in arbitration or free agency. To make the money that he passed up (assuming $300 K is correct) he will have to have a much better year and hope he doesn't get hurt. The closer at Rice a couple of years ago was drafted fairly high (top 5 or 6 rounds) and didn't sign. I cant remember his name because I haven't seen or heard of him since.

Larry
2010 AAT Brandon Douglas

**hueytaxi** · 08-19-2010, 11:52 PM

Originally Posted by JayVee7777

No offense, but this isn't a good article.

Castellanos was not drafted on August 16th, nor was he drafted in the second round or later...

Tom is a photographer, not a reporter.

**Edman85** · 08-20-2010, 07:20 AM

Originally Posted by plantcitytigersfan

If Green wants to be a professional baseball player, he should have signed. Any baseball scout will tell you that a baseball player makes his money once his service years start, whether it is in arbitration or free agency. To make the money that he passed up (assuming $300 K is correct) he will have to have a much better year and hope he doesn't get hurt. The closer at Rice a couple of years ago was drafted fairly high (top 5 or 6 rounds) and didn't sign. I cant remember his name because I haven't seen or heard of him since.

Larry
2010 AAT Brandon Douglas

Cole St. Claire was drafted in the 7th and didn't sign, only to be drafted in the 7th the next year. Not sure what point you are trying to make there. Plenty of juniors have gone back to school and got drafted higher the next year. Citing one player off the top of your head who wasn't even drafted that high to begin with and hasn't had the time to make the big leagues yet isn't exactly going to slam the door shut on any sort of debate.

**hueytaxi** · 08-20-2010, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by JayVee7777

No offense, but this isn't a good article.

Castellanos was not drafted on August 16th, nor was he drafted in the second round or later...

And Tom did not write the article either, it was the site owner Chuck Welch. Oh, the ref to 2nd round pick was on Yordy, not Nick.

**JonBenke** · 08-20-2010, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by Edman85

And he's probably not going to suit up for the GCL Tigers either...

Wait, I thought he was...

**plantcitytigersfan** · 08-20-2010, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by Edman85

Cole St. Claire was drafted in the 7th and didn't sign, only to be drafted in the 7th the next year. Not sure what point you are trying to make there. Plenty of juniors have gone back to school and got drafted higher the next year. Citing one player off the top of your head who wasn't even drafted that high to begin with and hasn't had the time to make the big leagues yet isn't exactly going to slam the door shut on any sort of debate.

So I guess St. Claire did not make more money going back to school. Thanks for proving my point. You know, you are right. I shouldn't use one player off the top of my head. Of course, you could have gave me examples to prove your point correct, but it is easier to throw the ball back in my court.

I went to the 2006 draft year. Since Green was drafted in the 4th round, I researched the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. Do you want to know something. EVERY college pitcher in those three rounds signed. Hum, maybe my point was right. Naw, I was just lucky.

I then went to the 2007 draft year. Same criteria, same results. Every pitcher in those 3 rounds signed. Hum, two for two.

I then went to the 2008 draft year. Same criteria, same results. Geez, I love it when a plan comes together.

I then went to the 2009 draft year. Same criteria, different results. Oh oh, got to do some research. Bryan Margado was drafted in the 3rd round and didn't sign. Go to 2010 draft, 4th round draftee. Signed for $182,000. Not bad, did he make money, doubt it. Did his service time start one year earlier, nope. Oh ho, a second third rounder didn't sign. Josh Spence. Lets check the 2010 draft. Round 9, are you kidding me, he was a third rounder the prior year. Oh, thats right, he GOT HURT, signed for $100 K.

Sorry if this came across sarcastic but instead of making a point, I took this as a sort of attack. Edman 85's opinion is actually someone I respect.

Green has the absolute right to go to school and good for him. Purke turned down $ 4 M.

My opinion is stronger now than it was before. If you want to grow up and be a professional baseball player and you are drafted fairly high, you should sign. I can now make the statement that 50% of all college pitchers drafted in the 3rd - 5th rounds from 2006 until 2009 who did not sign got hurt.

Larry
2010 AAT Brandon Douglas