The annual Jair Jurrjens thread 2011 version

[jake]

DL'd to start the year. First start is coming up in minutes. Fire up!!

[jake]

Strikes out Reyes on 3 pitches. Nice.

[jake]

Jurrjens is the absolute anti JV (my point when I endlessly compare the 2). He's throwing 91. He has a changeup at 80 and he's throwing this cutter/slider thing at 83 and a two seamer at 87/88. He really has nothing special at all . . . except he refuses to give in to hitters and he just pumps both corners of the plate at the knees. He's just amazing to watch pitch.

[pyrotigers]

Jurrjens is the absolute anti JV (my point when I endlessly compare the 2). He's throwing 91. He has a changeup at 80 and he's throwing this cutter/slider thing at 83 and a two seamer at 87/88. He really has nothing special at all . . . except he refuses to give in to hitters and he just pumps both corners of the plate at the knees. He's just amazing to watch pitch.

He's also the anti JV in that he walks more than Verlander while striking out 2 per nine less, is injured all the time, doesn't go deep into games, and of course most importantly of all since I know you will just say none of those things matter, is that Justin Verlander's career Winning % is over 60%, while Jurrjens is hanging around 58%.

One of these guys is a winner, and it isn't Jair.

[jake]

He's also the anti JV in that he walks more than Verlander while striking out 2 per nine less, is injured all the time, doesn't go deep into games, and of course most importantly of all since I know you will just say none of those things matter, is that Justin Verlander's career Winning % is over 60%, while Jurrjens is hanging around 58%.

One of these guys is a winner, and it isn't Jair.

Pyro, you have to do better than that. Point by Point. Jurrjens walks people instead of throwing cookies like JV. That's called maturity and an intelligence. Jair just turned 25 and has 150 more big league innings than JV at the same age. . . I bet you didn't know that did you???????

Also, Jair had an elite (ace type) year with the 2.60 ERA at age 23. JV still hasn't had a sub 3. Jair's career ERA of 3.52 is nearly the same as JV's best single season year of 3.35.

[jake]

7 innings. 2 hits. O runs. 1 BB. 4 K's. . . and a pickoff of a RUNNER at 1st base, not home plate!! LOL.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Nice outing. But I do have to note Jair's ERA the past 3 seasons:
3.68 (1.37 WHIP)
2.60 (1.22 WHIP)
4.64 (1.39 WHIP)
Pretty amazing consistency there!

[Antrat]

But can Jurrjens pickoff a guy at home plate?
I think not!

[tigersrok]

Second start: He got a no decision but went 6 IP, 7 H, ER, 2 BB, 6 K. He has a .69 ERA on the season.

[jake]

CG 2 earned runs. 2-0 1.32 era after 3 starts.

[Johnny Mac]

He'll be hurt in a month...

JV is easily a better pitcher than Jurjjens, I cant believe you still carry on this shtick

[jake]

He'll be hurt in a month...

JV is easily a better pitcher than Jurjjens, I cant believe you still carry on this shtick

Because you say it makes it true.

[jake]

After 5 starts, 36 IP, 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Not bad. Not a No-hitter and a 3 plus ERA with a sub 1.0 whip but I'm sure Jair will keep plugging away.

[DrWho17]

He's also the anti JV in that he walks more than Verlander while striking out 2 per nine less, is injured all the time, doesn't go deep into games, and of course most importantly of all since I know you will just say none of those things matter, is that Justin Verlander's career Winning % is over 60%, while Jurrjens is hanging around 58%.

One of these guys is a winner, and it isn't Jair.

One plays in the AL as well, NL is the JV league as far as hitters go.

[Yoda]

You do know he's not a Tiger anymore right? Did he once blow you or something? I've never seen a mancrush like this in my entire life.

[sagnam]

Yoda, you seem to get offended by these threads. I don't understand why.

[ben9753]

Jake, I'll ask the question and please give a yes or no answer: Would you trade Justin Verlander for JJ straight up?

[DGTigers]

You do know he's not a Tiger anymore right? Did he once blow you or something? I've never seen a mancrush like this in my entire life.

How soon we all forget about all the Cale Iorg love that ran rampant around here a while ago!

[jake]

Jake, I'll ask the question and please give a yes or no answer: Would you trade Justin Verlander for JJ straight up?

.

Yes.

Verlander, age 28, 86-55, 3.77 ERA, 1.24 whip, $12.85 million per year.
Jurrjens, age 25, 41-27, 3.29 ERA, 1.29 whip, $3.25 million per year.

Those are facts you can't ignore. Younger and cheaper with
better production. Jurrjens ERA is 1/2 Verlander's this year alone.

[jaymo]

There is some value to the innings Verlander pitches. If Jurrjens can stay healthy and continue to go deep into games then this becomes a much more interesting question. Keeping the middle relievers and sixth starters off the field is important.

[4hzglory]

There is some value to the innings Verlander pitches. If Jurrjens can stay healthy and continue to go deep into games then this becomes a much more interesting question. Keeping the middle relievers and sixth starters off the field is important.

Exactly which is a simple reason there is currently no comparison. JJ has had health problems mutliple times and had 85 starts and a total of 519 2/3 IP from 2008-2010. JV has never had health problems and had 101 starts and a total of 665 1/3 IP during that time. An extra 146 IP over 3 years is very significant.

Even if they were the exact same pitcher in performance, for a team counting on an ace, JV is worth quite a bit more.

[sabretooth]

Pyro, you have to do better than that. Point by Point. Jurrjens walks people instead of throwing cookies like JV. That's called maturity and an intelligence. Jair just turned 25 and has 150 more big league innings than JV at the same age. . . I bet you didn't know that did you???????

That's b/c JJ was brought up one year younger.

Verlander has pitched 150 more innings over the last three years. Verlander also has not had an injury-shorted season like JJ had last year.

EDIT: 4HG made the same point at the same time -- sorry for the duplicate post.

[sabretooth]

.

Yes.

Verlander, age 28, 86-55, 3.77 ERA, 1.24 whip, $12.85 million per year.
Jurrjens, age 25, 41-27, 3.29 ERA, 1.29 whip, $3.25 million per year.

Those are facts you can't ignore. Younger and cheaper with
better production. Jurrjens ERA is 1/2 Verlander's this year alone.

NL/AL Difference

His "better production" probably only appears that way because Jair is helped by having faced pitchers instead of DHs. That saves him about 10 hits a year including 5+ extra bases, and also about 6 walks. That probably lowers his total bases allowed by around 20, his runs allowed by 5 or so, and his ERA by about 0.30 or so.

ERA and Whip Adjusted for NL/AL

Still, a career ERA of 3.80 is about the same as Verlander.

However, his WHIP would go from 1.29 to over 1.35. That's quite a bit worse than Verlander's non-pitcher-aided 1.24.

Extra-Base Hits

Also, Verlander has allowed 539 extra bases over 4704 plate appearances, whereas JJ has allowed 302 over 2462 PAs. Verlander's clearly does not allow as many "cookies" as JJ -- 8% fewer extra bases by Verlander. Verlander does have a higher rate of allowing HRs (it would equal 7 more HRs for JJ or 15 fewer for Verlander over their careers, but about half of this is attributable to the NL/AL difference), but the effect in total bases is more than made up for by JJ's higher rate of doubles and triples allowed, not to mention the NL/AL difference.

Durability

Durability-wise, Verlander's had 5 straight seasons of 30+ starts, whereas JJ has battled injury issues on two occasions and only has one season over 200 innings out of his first 3 (Verlander had two).

Overall

If by the end of 2014, the year that JJ turns 28, he is still in Verlander's territory ERA-wise (with some kind of appropriate NL-to-AL adjustment) and he's been able to turn in 30+ starts and 200+ IP every year, then I'll agree that JJ is in Verlander's territory. At this point, JJ has a long way to go to make the comparison effective, IMHO.

At this point, JJ is obviously a very talented young pitcher who has had one very good season, one pretty good season, and one injury-loss season, and allows more baserunners and EBH than JV. That's kind of pattern is not going to make the comparison work long-term -- JJ has got to stay healthy and he's got to allow a lot fewer baserunners and fewer extra base hits to keep that ERA in Verlander's territory, I'm betting.

[sabretooth]

.

Yes.

Verlander, age 28, 86-55, 3.77 ERA, 1.24 whip, $12.85 million per year.
Jurrjens, age 25, 41-27, 3.29 ERA, 1.29 whip, $3.25 million per year.

Those are facts you can't ignore. Younger and cheaper with
better production. Jurrjens ERA is 1/2 Verlander's this year alone.

You're comparing the cost of an established top-level veteran with a young guy with injury problems.

I would not make that trade primarily because JJ has been relatively fragile and has only been able to reach 200 IP once so far, and has not established Verlander's level of performance, only matching/exceeding it for a relatively short period of time sandwiched by injuries.

If we compare by age/experience:

by age 25 (3 seasons for Verlander, 4 for JJ):

By the end of 2008 when Verlander was 25 he had cost the Tigers $4.5 million (including a $3.12 M signing bonus) for his one minor league season in 2005 and his three major league seasons 2006 - 2008; for an average cost of $1.5 Million per major league season.

JJ's total contract cost for his first 4 years by age 25 with the Braves will be $4.57 million, for a lower total contract cost of $1.14 million per year, but not that much lower.

Ages 26 - 28

Verlander's earned a total of $23 million for 2009, 2010 and 2011, which is a pretty cheap price for three excellent seasons, assuming Verlander finishes 2011 like he's pitched the last 2 years plus the beginning of this 2011.

Presumably when JJ goes back on the market at the end of 2011 he'll be in line for a $7 - 10 million/yr contract just as Verlander was at that age, assuming that JJ is healthy and finishes this season somewhere close to his 2008 and 2009 campaigns.

So the two seem pretty similar cost-wise relative to their age/experience.

Future/Summary

Verlander will obviously be waaaay more expensive in 2011 and 2012 and beyond, but only because he's being paid a premium for having pitched at a very high level for over five years and being very durable, whereas JJ has seen relatively limited action so far.

[MSUBrian11]

perfect through 5 1/3 innings

[toadhunter911]

perfect through 5 1/3 innings

Not anymore.

[pyrotigers]

With the stuff Jurrjens had tonight I expected a shutout, it's disappointing how he lets the game get away from him at times

[Ingefanclub]

Jurrjens is a very good pitcher and the Tigers made a huge blunder trading him for Renteria.

But there should be no argument who is better.

Verlander's finish place in the AL Cy Young voting race: (he has gotten votes every year except in 2008 that poor year)
2006 ... 7th place
2007.... 5th place
2009.....3rd place
2010.... 11th place.

Jurrjens has never gotten a single vote in the Cy Young Race.
Surprisingly JJ has never made an all-star game either... JV has 3 of them under his belt.

[jake]

Jurrjens is a very good pitcher and the Tigers made a huge blunder trading him for Renteria.

But there should be no argument who is better.

Verlander's finish place in the AL Cy Young voting race: (he has gotten votes every year except in 2008 that poor year)
2006 ... 7th place
2007.... 5th place
2009.....3rd place
2010.... 11th place.

Jurrjens has never gotten a single vote in the Cy Young Race.
Surprisingly JJ has never made an all-star game either... JV has 3 of them under his belt.

How can you be 7th, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and have a career 3.80 ERA heading into this year? The CY Young votes are all hype. The media loves his stuff. The fans love his stuff. Until his last few starts, we've never seen any type of dominance. Good innings eater, great peripheals but in no way dominant. Finally, we are seeing some results that match his absurd talent. Even this year, Jair is 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA and JV is 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA. This is the first time JV has a sub 3 ERA. Will he be able to keep it up? You'd sure think so. If he doesn't, it would be an epic failure. In the meantime, without any hype JJ just goes out and gets the job done again today.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Jurrjens has a completely unsustainable strand rate (88% vs 74% career norm) and only a 3.4% HR/FB. Will he be able to keep this up? I don't think so. If he doesn't it's an epic failure. His average fastball is now below 90, also. When he came up it was 92.6.

[pyrotigers]

How can you be 7th, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and have a career 3.80 ERA heading into this year? The CY Young votes are all hype. The media loves his stuff. The fans love his stuff. Until his last few starts, we've never seen any type of dominance. Good innings eater, great peripheals but in no way dominant. Finally, we are seeing some results that match his absurd talent. Even this year, Jair is 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA and JV is 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA. This is the first time JV has a sub 3 ERA. Will he be able to keep it up? You'd sure think so. If he doesn't, it would be an epic failure. In the meantime, without any hype JJ just goes out and gets the job done again today.

Meanwhile Jair Jurrjens (in the national league) had had all of one season with an ERA below 3.68

Yep, he just goes out and gets the job done every 5 days, except when he's hurt, which is often. And when he does get the job done it's of course not as good as Verlander, but he's better than Verlander because he's not as good as Verlander and thus it's more impressive when he performs at a lower level than Verlander. Yes indeed, this is logic.

[Ingefanclub]

Only 1 active pitcher with over 1000 innings has an ERA under 3 by the way (Mariano Rivera- no starters are under 3)

Active Leaders &amp Records for Earned Run Average - Baseball-Reference.com

[Ingefanclub]

How can you be 7th, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and have a career 3.80 ERA heading into this year? .

Probably because one year was a bust for JV with a 4.84 ERA. Take that away and he has a career 3.51 ERA.

[sabretooth]

This is the first time JV has a sub 3 ERA. Will he be able to keep it up? You'd sure think so. If he doesn't, it would be an epic failure.

Having an ERA above 3 is not an "epic failure" for anybody. There have been only 18 pitchers from 2006 - 2010 who have been able to post ERAs below 3 in any single season, and only 7 of them did it more than once.

In the meantime, without any hype JJ just goes out and gets the job done again today.

Good for him that he's not injured. Will he be able to keep it up?

[Yoda]

I can't believe you guys continue to argue with this guy...

[jake]

[QUOTE=sabretooth;2475238]Having an ERA above 3 is not an "epic failure" for anybody. There have been only 18 pitchers from 2006 - 2010 who have been able to post ERAs below 3 in any single season, and only 7 of them did it more than once.

Epic. 18 pitchers have accomplished the sub 3.00 ERA. When will JV? JJ has done it. He shattered 3.0 with a 2.60. JV's best is 3.35 or so. The way JV's throwing the baseball he should have a sub 2.00 ERA.

[jake]

I can't believe you guys continue to argue with this guy...

It's a great topic. Contrast in styles. Former Tiger. One maximizes. The other minimizes. Gives us another reason to follow baseball. Career ERA's for Verlander is 3.75 and Jurrjens 3.38. Allowing for DH, add .30 to JJ which gives JJ a 3.68. 3 years younger. More innings pitched at the same age for JJ. What a ridiculous argument to compare the two of them. Finesse and smarts vs. raw power. Better than any topic you've ever come up with from a baseball perspective. Better than thread policing. Better than belittling posters for fun. Why can't you just stay away?

[berneree]

I'm still trying to figure out what you are arguing???

1) That JJ is better than JV? Because you would definitely be the only GM in MLB to consider that. How about trading JJ for JV in fantasy baseball? That trade would get overturned by the commissioner in my fantasy league too.

or

2) That we should have traded away JV rather than JJ in the Renteria deal?


Because you are arguing against no one regarding the fact that DD screwed up in trading JJ away for such a low return in Renteria.

[jake]

I'm still trying to figure out what you are arguing???

1) That JJ is better than JV? Because you would definitely be the only GM in MLB to consider that. How about trading JJ for JV in fantasy baseball? That trade would get overturned by the commissioner in my fantasy league too.

or

2) That we should have traded away JV rather than JJ in the Renteria deal?


Because you are arguing against no one regarding the fact that DD screwed up in trading JJ away for such a low return in Renteria.

I'm arguing that JJ is not a #3 pitcher just because he throws 90 and Verlander isn't the greatest thing since sliced bread just because he throws 100 in the 9th inning. It's about getting guys out consistently. They are basically the same pitcher from a bottom line standpoint regarding getting guys out. They just do it differently. That's my argument. It gets extremely old hearing how great JV is and then you look at the box score and it's 7 IP and 3 ER. Does it matter if he gives up 3 hits or 8 hits or strikes out 8 or 3. It doesn't matter. A 3.75 ERA is a 3.75 ERA no matter how he gives it up.

[sabretooth]

It's about getting guys out consistently. They are basically the same pitcher from a bottom line standpoint regarding getting guys out. They just do it differently. That's my argument. It gets extremely old hearing how great JV is and then you look at the box score and it's 7 IP and 3 ER. Does it matter if he gives up 3 hits or 8 hits or strikes out 8 or 3. It doesn't matter. A 3.75 ERA is a 3.75 ERA no matter how he gives it up.

Bottom line is that JJ has a way to go to be as productive as Verlander. He needs to stay healthy for a long time and he needs to allow fewer baserunners and extra base hits to be in Verlander's territory.