Winter of Sabermetrics

**Dan Gilmore** · 11-12-2006, 07:41 PM

Has anyone looked at the MR stats on a month by month basis? I'd be interested to see if Leyland used small ball strategies less after the first few months, maybe trying them again when the offense sputtered late in the season.

**chasfh** · 11-12-2006, 10:05 PM

Originally Posted by Dan Gilmore

Has anyone looked at the MR stats on a month by month basis? I'd be interested to see if Leyland used small ball strategies less after the first few months, maybe trying them again when the offense sputtered late in the season.

Maybe Bill James has. I think he might be the only guy with the data. It's gonna take a little elbow grease for us regular folks to get to that answer. Anyone here motivated and knowledgeable enough to take his 12 rules and parse through the Retrosheet data? Lee, I'm looking in your direction ...

**tiger337** · 11-12-2006, 11:01 PM

Originally Posted by chasfh

Maybe Bill James has. I think he might be the only guy with the data. It's gonna take a little elbow grease for us regular folks to get to that answer. Anyone here motivated and knowledgeable enough to take his 12 rules and parse through the Retrosheet data? Lee, I'm looking in your direction ...

Analyzing the retrosheet event data is something I've thought about doing for a while but it would be a really time consuming project. If I ever get around to it, I'll let you know.

**AlaskanTigersFan** · 11-15-2006, 03:14 AM

It was posted somewhere, but I cant find the Sabremetrics of Runs created for Adam Dunn. Does anyone have these numbers by anychance?

Was wondering:
Basic Run's created in 0-2/3-2 counts
OPS with Runners on
Avg with Runners on in scoring position (also with amount of outs.)

Thanks in advance for any help that can be given.

**chasfh** · 11-15-2006, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by AlaskanTigersFan

It was posted somewhere, but I cant find the Sabremetrics of Runs created for Adam Dunn. Does anyone have these numbers by anychance?

Was wondering:
Basic Run's created in 0-2/3-2 counts
OPS with Runners on
Avg with Runners on in scoring position (also with amount of outs.)

Thanks in advance for any help that can be given.

You can find Adam Dunn's split stats at both his ESPN Splits and Yahoo Situational cards. Retrosheet has deeper split results, although they have fewer splits, and they won't have it updated to include 2006 until probably next spring.

They don't have the deeper sabermetrics on any of the splits card, although you could apply the standard Runs Created formula to get at that number if you really want it. I would think that relationally speaking, RC would result in the same comparison as would basic stats review.

**AlaskanTigersFan** · 11-15-2006, 09:30 PM

Thanks man.

**apabruce** · 11-24-2006, 01:44 PM

Regarding Leyland's small ball proclivities: I've always had the impression that he wants to be a manager pushing buttons. He's clearly not a stats guy, he brags about not liking computers. I give him credit for figuring out, at least to some extent, that small ball doesn't work well with the Tigers.

The situation that comes to mind is the Yankee ALDS series. Leyland was quoted as saying he would do a lot of managing because the Tigers were underdogs and they needed to make things happen. He tried this in game one and it didn't work. To the best of my recollection, there was very little small ball the rest of the series.

**estrepe1** · 02-07-2007, 09:39 PM

The audience demands more!

**Scorekeeper** · 09-02-2007, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

If you use OPS instead of runs created, he would fair a little better (ranked 90 out of 133 qualifiers). Runs created is a better measure though (other than being too complicated to compute on a regular basis).

I think his low BA w RISP was just bad luck so he should be able to fix that next year. He absolutely needs to get on base to be a productive offensive player though.

In the last couple of years, I’ve found that an acceptable substitute for the complicated RC, and the troubled OPS, is bases per out. One of the things I like most about it is, not only is it simple to compute, it works equally well for hitters and pitchers,

I’m not so enthralled with BARISP as most are. What does it show other than hits? This week Lofton drew 2 bases loaded walks in the 9th inning. Although he got deservedly got 2 RBI’s, his BARISP wasn’t affected. And how many batters hit a grounder to either move a runner from 2nd to 3rd or to drive in a run, and their BARISP goes down?

**Ex-Chicagoan** · 09-10-2007, 05:11 PM

Excellent stuff. As a newbie (and a refugee from a site where you mention math and most everyone mocks or complains), I appreciate that this is stuck here to find easily. Great work, Lee!

**tiger337** · 09-10-2007, 11:18 PM

Originally Posted by Ex-Chicagoan

Excellent stuff. As a newbie (and a refugee from a site where you mention math and most everyone mocks or complains), I appreciate that this is stuck here to find easily. Great work, Lee!

This particular thread fizzled out but I think you'll see that a lot of people on this site like stats or at least are open to it. Welcome to MotownSports.

**Ex-Chicagoan** · 09-17-2007, 07:49 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

This particular thread fizzled out but I think you'll see that a lot of people on this site like stats or at least are open to it. Welcome to MotownSports.

Thanks for the welcome! I love the stats - they're what makes the game unique.

Last weekend I found, in a box, a program from the first game my late mother ever attended in Chicago. (She's the one who taught me how to keep score.) She didn't score that particular game, but wrote the date on the program (6/30/1958) and a brief note telling whoever found the program that Cleveland won 5-3 (damn Indians). Through the "magic of the Internet" I've found the boxscore and play-by-play for that date. Cal McLish got the win for the Indians that day.

For that matter, I also found a card - scored - from opening day 1966 at Wrigley Field. The names in those lineups - Mays, McCovey, Banks, Williams...

I'm unaware of any other sport that has the sense of history that we enjoy in baseball.

**jaymo** · 03-01-2010, 09:48 PM

I think Lee (Tiger337) is too proper to advertise his own book here (and the rules might not allow it.) I hope its OK if I recommend Beyond Batting Average for getting a start on sabermetrics.

E-edition.

Print edition.

Thanks, Lee, for being one of the more informative, helpful posters for those with good intentions who are new to sabermetrics.

**TigersSlappy** · 05-23-2012, 09:37 AM

Interesting nugget from Jayson Stark, not worth a thread and I didn't know where to put it....

"5. Carlos Pena, who is hitting .209, has reached base more times (66) than Andrew McCutchen (64), who is hitting .340."