Jeff Bagwell HOFer?

[Brent]

What do you think, is Bagwell a Hall of Famer?

His glamour numbers
2137 hits
419 HR's
.300 ave
.411 OBP
.549 SLG

2 30-30 seasons
Rookie of the year award
MVP
Gold Glove
4 time All Star
6 times finished in the top 10 of MVP Voting

BB Reference Page

[MotownRandy]

Yes.

[djhutch]

Originally posted by Brent
What do you think, is Bagwell a Hall of Famer?

His glamour numbers
2137 hits
419 HR's
.300 ave
.411 OBP
.549 SLG

2 30-30 seasons
Rookie of the year award
MVP
Gold Glove
4 time All Star
6 times finished in the top 10 of MVP Voting

BB Reference Page

Only if he gets 50 HRs and/or 3,000 hits.

[Ranger]

Black Ink: Batting - 24 (78) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 155 (75) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 54.0 (48) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 146.5 (75) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

I'm really liking Baseball-Reference and this. Read the description for Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Standards, HOF Monitor.
Yes, Bagwell has produced enough offense and is a complete player.
Bagwell, along with Biggio, belongs in Cooperstown.

Originally posted by djhutch
Only if he gets 50 HRs and/or 3,000 hits.

"419 HR's"

Correct me if I'm wrong but I always thought 419>50.

But Bagwell is 36 now. The 419 HR were current as of last season as B-R only updates their stats after each season and Bagwell has 17 HR already this season which brings the total to 436 career HR. I suspect he'll have around 445 HR (this will be his first season since '95 he finishes with under 30 HR for the season) after this season. I think he can reach 500 before he retires.

[qsilvr2531]

Bagwell and Biggio are both no doubt HOFers in my mind.

[Oblong]

I have a small personal bias against him because the way he swings the bat at the plate while waiting for the pitch reminds me of "softball guy".

Jim Rome fans know what I'm talking about.

[djhutch]

Originally posted by Ranger
Correct me if I'm wrong but I always thought 419>50.

Touche`

[IdahoBert]

His numbers are awesome but the HOF has limited seating.

It's going to be a tough call when a raft of guys with huge numbers come into eligibility around the same time. They'll all be vying for a those couple places open per year and even 500 hr guys who hit .300 may not be a lock.

Other factors will end up coming into play to make this decision a bit more subjective than raw numbers suggest; just as the MVP award usually doesn't go merely to the best hitter (or pitcher) but to one of the best hitters (or pitchers) on a championship team.

[djhutch]

Originally posted by IdahoBert
His numbers are awesome but the HOF has limited seating.

I used to think the same thing. Then they let Ozzie Smith & Kirby Puckett in. I don't know any more.

I hope they compare the numbers for guys like Bagwell more with the top players of today then they do with great players from the past. This era is much more homer happy .. & I don't think those numbers mean as much to today's players.

[IdahoBert]

Originally posted by djhutch
I used to think the same thing. Then they let Ozzie Smith & Kirby Puckett in. I don't know any more.

I understand how you feel. Paul Molitor? Yeah, there are slim pickings some years.

[Oblong]

Originally posted by djhutch
I used to think the same thing. Then they let Ozzie Smith & Kirby Puckett in. I don't know any more.

I hope they compare the numbers for guys like Bagwell more with the top players of today then they do with great players from the past. This era is much more homer happy .. & I don't think those numbers mean as much to today's players.

Puckett I will grant but explain how ozzie smith is not a HOFer.

[billms]

oblong is right and bagwell doesn't belong

[BiggieG]

Puckett I will grant but explain how ozzie smith is not a HOFer.

If Ozzie is a HOFer than Tram should be in like Flynn!!! Fat Chance!

It must have been the cartwheels!?!?

[tigersfan25]

Originally posted by Oblong
Puckett I will grant but explain how ozzie smith is not a HOFer.

If Alan Trammell isn't in the Hall, Ozzie Smith doesn't deserve to be in the Hall either. Both had virtually the same fielding percentage (Ozzie had a .978 and Tram had a .977), and Alan by far and away blew Ozzie out of the water on offense.

To be quite honest, I think even Kirby Puckett deserves more than Ozzie does, quite frankly.

[Brent]

Originally posted by billms
oblong is right and bagwell doesn't belong

Do you think Bagwell belongs if he reaches 500 HR's or are you just stating that if his career ended after this season that he doesn't belong?

[TonyJM]

Interesting article by Neyer about Bagwell and Biggio...Was kind of suprised to see that he included Whitaker into the group he compares Biggio to. I guess with all the outcry about Tram not being in, I forgot how good Lou was.


-Tony

[Brent]

Originally posted by TonyJM
Interesting article by Neyer about Bagwell and Biggio...Was kind of suprised to see that he included Whitaker into the group he compares Biggio to. I guess with all the outcry about Tram not being in, I forgot how good Lou was.


-Tony

Tony, can you share that article with us?

[TonyJM]

By Rob Neyer


At first, the question surprised me.

Are Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio Hall of Famers?

Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio
Bagwell and Biggio could conceivably go into the Hall of Famer together.

Of course they are (I thought). But then I stopped myself. For one thing, I hadn't actually gone through the statistical gymnastics to make sure. And for another, there was a time when that's exactly what people said -- "Of course they are." -- about Ryne Sandberg and Dale Murphy (among others). So rather than just say of course, it's worth taking a few moments and figuring it out.

What's a Hall of Famer? Well, a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer.

I know, that's circular "logic," but in a sense it's true. Hall of Fame voters know what they're looking for, and essentially they're looking for players with numbers (and reputations) like the players for whom they've voted already.

That means the voters don't care about old-timers like Dan Brouthers and Roger Connor, and neither should we. Instead, when looking at Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame chances we should consider only first basemen who played after World War II, and seven post-war first basemen have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Chronologically, they are: Hank Greenberg, Johnny Mize, Harmon Killebrew, Orlando Cepeda, Willie McCovey, Tony Perez, and Eddie Murray.

Of course, Bagwell isn't competing with just the first basemen who are in the Hall of Fame, but also with some of those who are not. He's also competing with Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff, Jim Thome, and Will Clark (who aren't eligible yet), and guys like Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez, and Dick Allen (who are).

This gives us a group of 17 first basemen: seven Hall of Famers, one future lock (McGwire), and eight guys with pretty good (or better) arguments. How does Bagwell stack up?

First let's look at career Win Shares, Bill James' catch-all category that incorporates hitting, fielding, and baserunning.

Career Win Shares
1 Eddie Murray 437
2 W. McCovey 408
3 R. Palmeiro 381
4 Jeff Bagwell 375
5 H. Killebrew 371
6 Frank Thomas 358
7 Tony Perez 349

Bagwell's signed through 2006, and if he's reasonably healthy over the next two seasons he'll probably pass Palmeiro and possibly McCovey. Eddie Murray had few great seasons, but so many good ones that he's probably going to be No. 1 on this list for quite some time (among all first basemen, only Lou Gehrig's ahead of Murray). Frank Thomas will catch Killebrew next season and pass Palmeiro in 2006, but I suspect he'll finish his career in the No. 3 slot, just a shade behind Bagwell.

All that's sheer speculation, of course. Right now, Bagwell is No. 4 among post-war first basemen, smack dab in the middle of six Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers. Now let's shift our focus to the rate at which Bagwell's earned his Win Shares. There are a couple of obvious reasons to look at the rate. For one thing, the schedule is eight games longer today than it was prior to the early 1960s, which gives modern players a slight advantage in all the "counting stats." And for another, one can reasonably argue that a player who's great for 12 seasons is more valuable than a player who's good for 20 seasons. So below are the top first basemen in the group, according to Win Shares per 600 plate appearances.

WS/600
1 Dick Allen 28.3
2 Johnny Mize 27.6
3 Mark McGwire 27.1
4 H. Greenberg 26.4
5 Frank Thomas 25.7
6 W. McCovey 25.5
7 Jeff Bagwell 25

Bagwell's probably going to drop a notch or two on this list as his skills diminish. Believe it or not, the eighth slot is held by Will Clark, at 24.3 Win Shares per 600. And right behind Clark is Jim Thome, who's going to move up before he moves down. Before he's done, though, Bagwell should rank among the top 10 post-World War II first basemen in this category.

Next let's look at a modified version of on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS+), which is essentially OPS adjusted for a player's home ballparks and normalized to the league average (with 100 as the baseline). Why OPS+ rather than basic stats like on-base percentage, home runs, RBI, et cetera? Because conditions change (for example, it's a lot easier to hit a home run in 2004 than it was in 1964).

OPS+
1 Frank Thomas 165
2 Mark McGwire 164
3 Dick Allen 157
4 Johnny Mize 157
5 H. Greenberg 156
6 Jeff Bagwell 154
7 W. McCovey 148

Basically the same players here, which shouldn't be a surprise because most of a first baseman's value lies in his hitting. The guy who really moves up here is Thomas, who is, according to Win Shares -- not to mention just about anybody who's ever seen him play first base -- a terrible fielder. It's worth noting the presence on both lists of Dick Allen and Johnny Mize. Allen's not in the Hall of Fame, Mize is, and both are terribly underrated as truly fantastic hitters.

Reviewing all of these ... In career Win Shares, Bagwell ranks behind two Hall of Famers and ahead of five. In Win Shares expressed as a rate -- Win Shares per 600 plate appearances -- Bagwell ranks behind three Hall of Famers, and ahead of three. In adjusted OPS, he ranks just behind two Hall of Famers, and ahead of five.

Now let's run Craig Biggio through the same analysis. There are six post-war second basemen in the Hall of Fame (and here I don't include Rod Carew, because he played more games at first base than second): Bobby Doerr, Red Schoendienst, Jackie Robinson, Nellie Fox, Bill Mazeroski, and Joe Morgan. And in addition to Biggio, there are six other second basemen who are not in the Hall, but certainly could be: Roberto Alomar, Joe Gordon, Bobby Grich, Willie Randolph, Ryne Sandberg, and Lou Whitaker.

Career Win Shares
1 Joe Morgan 512
2 Craig Biggio 389
3 R. Alomar 377
4 L. Whitaker 351
5 R. Sandberg 346

The next two spots are held by Grich (329) and Randolph (312). Maybe you've noticed a running theme among the top seven Win Shares second basemen ... only one of them has been elected to the Hall of Fame. Two of the excluded six aren't eligible, of course, because they're still playing. But of the other four, only Sandberg has received even a cursory sniff from the voters. And that ain't right.

WS/600
1 Joe Morgan 27.5
2 J. Robinson 27.1
3 Bobby Grich 24.5
4 R. Sandberg 22.6
5 Craig Biggio 22.5

Would you believe there are actually people who think that Jackie Robinson's in the Hall of Fame because of what he symbolizes, rather than what he did? Robinson was an incredible player, which shows up here (and again, below). The sixth and seventh spots on this list are held by Joe Gordon (22.4) and Roberto Alomar (22.3), and Biggio could easily fall behind both of them before he's done. Still, sixth or seventh among post-war second basemen is more than respectable.

OPS+
1 Joe Morgan 133
2 J. Robinson 131
3 Bobby Grich 125
4 Joe Gordon 121
5 Craig Biggio 118

Same story here, with Biggio in the fifth spot but just a hair better than Alomar (117) and Lou Whitaker (117). Summing up &

Career Win Shares: Biggio ranks behind only Morgan.

Win Shares per 600 plate appearances: Biggio ranks behind two Hall of Famers, and (well) ahead of four.

Adjusted OPS: Biggio ranks behind two Hall of Famers, and ahead of four.

Put everything together, and only Joe Morgan exceeds Biggio's Hall of Fame qualifications; only Roberto Alomar comes close to matching them. By any reasonable standards, Biggio should sail into the Hall of Fame with ease. But considering how badly the voters have misread Sandberg -- not to mention Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker -- I don't know what will happen.

The voters are generally better (or perhaps more charitable) when it comes to first basemen, so I'll be moderately surprised if the voters don't recognize Jeff Bagwell's greatness.

Bagwell and Biggio have been teammates for 14 seasons, and it would be wonderful if the Killer B's eventually are enshrined in Cooperstown on the same day. But Hall of Fame voters have some strange ideas floating around in their heads; the only sure thing is that they'll leave us scratching ours.

Senior writer Rob Neyer writes four columns per week during the baseball season. Fireside recently published Rob's latest book, "The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers" (co-written with Bill James); for more information, visit Rob's Web site.

[qsilvr2531]

Couple things.

Bagwells numbers have been HOF calibre, even when compared to other 1B of his time frame. Especially when people consider his best seasons came in the one of the best pitchers park in history

Comparing Ozzie Smith's FPCT to Alan Trammell's does nothing to tell us about the relative difference between the two players. It would be equally valid to state that since Alan Trammell was 6'0" and Smith was only 5'11", then therefore trammells superior offensive numbers show he is a better player. Ozzie Smith is a significantly better HOFer than Kirby Puckett. Trammell should be in the HOF as well (ahead of Kirby by a significant margin, and possibly ahead of Smith as well) but regardless of where Trammell belongs, Smith is a clear but HOFer in my mind.