Another Great Baseball Prospectus Article

Edman85 · #1 (**permalink**) 10-04-2003, 09:13 AM

http://premium.baseballprospectus.co...articleid=2373

Minnesota Twins

Ministry of Silly Arguments: Here are three words most of us never thought would appear in the same sentence: Shannon, Stewart, and MVP.
And yet, writers and broadcasters from all across the country are beginning to hype the Twins' leadoff hitter as just that. Never mind that Stewart had only one month where his OBP ventured above .370. Never mind that Stewart's .283 Equivalent Average ranks ninth among American League left fielders. And never mind that Stewart wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team, according to VORP. What matters to the voters is that Shannon Stewart plays for a winning team, and that his arrival somewhat coincided with the Twins' resurgance in the AL Central.

Needless to say, from an objective standpoint, Stewart's MVP argument holds water about as well as Nate Silver holds his liquor. While Stewart was certainly a valuable addition to the top of the Twins' lineup, he's not the high-percentage base-stealer that he once was, and he simply doesn't hit for power, especially on the road. According to Keith Woolner's calculations, Stewart was roughly the 57th best position player in the American League this season, on par with the declining John Olerud and a couple of Devil Rays.

Rk Player Team Pos AVG OBP SLG VORP
-------------------------------------------------------
1. Rodriguez_Alex TEX ss .297 .394 .598 86.3
2. Boone_Bret SEA 2b .294 .366 .535 75.8
3. Delgado_Carlos TOR 1b .302 .426 .593 72.2
4. Ramirez_Manny BOS lf .325 .427 .587 69.2

27. Suzuki_Ichiro SEA rf .312 .352 .436 35.8
28. Berroa_Angel KCA ss .289 .339 .453 34.0
29. Palmeiro_Rafael TEX dh .260 .359 .508 33.9
30. Young_Michael TEX 2b .306 .339 .446 33.8

54. Lee_Travis TBA 1b .275 .348 .459 20.2
55. Olerud_John SEA 1b .269 .372 .390 20.2
56. Baldelli_Rocco TBA cf .289 .326 .416 20.1
57. Stewart_Shannon TO/MI lf .307 .364 .459 19.9 *

Like we said, though, none of this really matters to the voters. What matters to the voters is Stewart's impeccable timing. Minnesota went 17-8 in the 25 games immediately following his acquisition in mid-July. It couldn't be a coincidence, could it?
Well, in a word, yes. Check out the Twins' schedule following the trade for Stewart:

Date Team Date Team Date Team Date Team
------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
Jul 26 @ Cle. Aug 01 v Det. Aug 06 @ Bal. Aug 11 v Cle.
Jul 27 @ Cle. Aug 02 v Det. Aug 07 @ Bal. Aug 12 v Cle.
Jul 29 v Bal. Aug 03 v Det. Aug 08 @ Det. Aug 13 v Cle.
Jul 30 v Bal. Aug 04 @ Bal. Aug 09 @ Det. Aug 14 v Cle.
Jul 31 v Bal. Aug 05 @ Bal. Aug 10 @ Det.

And now check out the regular-season winning percentages for each those opponents:

Team WPct
--------------------
Baltimore .438
Cleveland .420
Detroit .265

That's 19 consecutive games against sub-.500 competition, and in some cases, sub-.300 competition. Is it possible that the schedule could have had something to do with the Twins' sudden ascent to the top of the division? Yeah, we didn't think so.
On top of which, adding Stewart to the lineup wasn't the only significant move the Twins made in mid-July. After receiving dozens of threatening phone calls from BP's own Gary Huckabay, Ron Gardenhire and the Twins' front office also moved some guy named Johan Santana into the rotation, where he immediately proceeded to do to the American League what Ice Cube only hints at in the song "No Vaseline."

After 7-11-03 ERA IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9
--------------------------------------------------
J. Santana 3.32 92.0 7.04 2.54 9.00

But does Santana get any credit from the BBWAA for pushing the Twins over the top? Does listening to David Justice air his views from the broadcast booth make you thankful for the SAP button on your remote?
And even then, it's not as if Stewart was gangbusters down the stretch. Aside from July when he hit .340/.407/.491, Stewart was about league average with the bat, hitting a combined .294/.349/.439 in August and September. Meanwhile, teammates Doug Mientkiewicz and A.J. Pierzynski hit .305/.438/.433 and .332/.391/.450 in the second half, respectively.

The argument for naming Shannon Stewart the American League's Most Valuable Player is about as weak as they come--a complete media concoction which has absolutely no basis in reality, or regard for what "valuable" means in any other context. It's a flawed argument made by individuals who would rather reward a mildly intriguing story than legitimate production.

In other words, it makes the argument for selecting Ichiro Suzuki over Alex Rodriguez back in 2001 look like a pinnacle of rational thought.

ToledoTigerFan · #2 (**permalink**) 10-04-2003, 09:25 AM

I'd rather see the award go to a player that played all, or almost all, of the season with one team. You might say that Shannon Stewart ending up being the most valuable Minnesota Twins player, but the most valuable in the whole league is highly subjective and debatable. It's the Twins marketing department working overtime that is starting the Shannon Stewart for MVP movement.

If I had a vote it would go to ARod.

Brent · #3 (**permalink**) 10-04-2003, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Edman85
The argument for naming Shannon Stewart the American League's Most Valuable Player is about as weak as they come--a complete media concoction which has absolutely no basis in reality, or regard for what "valuable" means in any other context. It's a flawed argument made by individuals who would rather reward a mildly intriguing story than legitimate production.

How true! Just more proof that the BBWAA isn't as bright as they proclaim to be. Any group that has Rob Parker as a member can't be all that smart though.