MLBN's Top 10 Right Now

**RedRamage** · 01-21-2013, 04:25 PM

Just for the fun of it... anyone want to predict the rest of the positions and where the Tigers might end up?

1st base: I'm guessing Fielder is 6th.
2nd base: No show the Tigers
SS: No show for the Tigers
3rd base: I'm guessing Cabrera will place 2nd. I think they'll knock him down a peg for poor defense (even though I think his defense is only below average, not poor.)
LF: No show
RF: No show
C: No show

**RedRamage** · 01-21-2013, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Just for the fun of it... anyone want to predict the rest of the positions and where the Tigers might end up?

1st base: I'm guessing Fielder is 6th.
2nd base: No show the Tigers
SS: No show for the Tigers
3rd base: I'm guessing Cabrera will place 2nd. I think they'll knock him down a peg for poor defense (even though I think his defense is only below average, not poor.)
LF: No show
RF: No show
C: No show

Edit to add:

Not sure if they do one for DH or not, but if so, I see the VMart getting the #8 spot.

**tiger337** · 01-21-2013, 04:46 PM

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Just for the fun of it... anyone want to predict the rest of the positions and where the Tigers might end up?

1st base: I'm guessing Fielder is 6th.
2nd base: No show the Tigers
SS: No show for the Tigers
3rd base: I'm guessing Cabrera will place 2nd. I think they'll knock him down a peg for poor defense (even though I think his defense is only below average, not poor.)
LF: No show
RF: No show
C: No show

Cabrera will be number one. Fielder might be too. I don't see how he could fall to sixth. Hunter will probably be in top 10 as well.

**Sven Draconian** · 01-21-2013, 05:30 PM

Avila probably cracks the list.
Hunter probably cracks the list.
Prince should be just behind Pujols and Votto
Cabrera should be #1.

**chasfh** · 01-21-2013, 05:35 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

Cabrera will be number one. Fielder might be too. I don't see how he could fall to sixth. Hunter will probably be in top 10 as well.

I think the top five ranking for 1B will go:

Joey Votto
Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Mark Teixeira

It will be very close between Pujols, Gonzalez and Fielder. But I think Votto takes #1 in a cakewalk.

In RF, I think the top five will go:

Jose Bautista
Giancarlo Stanton
Jason Heyward
Torii Hunter
Nick Swisher or Justin Upton

I think that's a generous assessment for Torii, but that's where I think he ends up.

EDIT: I agree that no other Tiger shows up for any other position. Infante would probably rank no better than 13th at 2B.

EDIT #2: Now that I look at it a little more, I think Avila makes the list at #10. If they don't count Mike Napoli as a catcher, then he might make it to #9.

EDIT #3: Oh, what the hell: Jhonny Peralta lands somewhere in the #8 to #10 range. Let's say #10. And in an East Coast upset, Derek Jeter falls of the list entirely. Book it.

**tiger337** · 01-21-2013, 06:06 PM

You guys are right about Votto. He should be #1. Fielder will probably be third.

**Eric Cioe** · 01-22-2013, 12:31 AM

Originally Posted by roarintiger1

It's been a long time.........1968 and 1969 Denny McLain

I'm late to the party, but this is a great joke.

**Yoda** · 01-22-2013, 12:39 AM

Don't you guys know pitchers have magical powers and just know how to win. But if they win a lot and have a bad ERA, it's only because they're pitching to the score. If his team scores 5, he knows he can give up 4 and be ok. That's what Jack Morris did according to the MLB Network.

**RedRamage** · 01-22-2013, 09:34 AM

Originally Posted by tiger337

Cabrera will be number one. Fielder might be too. I don't see how he could fall to sixth. Hunter will probably be in top 10 as well.

Honestly forgot about Hunter. I'm stuck thinking in terms of last year, which of course is what the players will be ranked on. But obviously Hunter is with the Tigers now.

I fear that too much will be made of defense, and defense is still too subjective, and because it's subjective it's easily influenced by things we "know" and everyone "knows" that Cabrera isn't good defensively at third base. (How's that for a run on sentence?) Don't get me wrong here... I'm not saying Cabrera is gold glove at third, but I think he's done better than many of us expected him too. But we watched him every day. The talking heads didn't. Of course, the shredder is supposed to be impartial, but it's "programmed" by humans and uses human influenced (in the case of many of the defensive metrics) stats.

I predict he'll be 2nd, behind Beltre. Don't get me wrong... I don't think he should, but I think he will.

I may have predicted Fielder too low looking back at stats of 1st basemen. I'll bump him to 4th.

**ben9753** · 01-22-2013, 09:43 AM

Originally Posted by Yoda

Don't you guys know pitchers have magical powers and just know how to win. But if they win a lot and have a bad ERA, it's only because they're pitching to the score. If his team scores 5, he knows he can give up 4 and be ok. That's what Jack Morris did according to the MLB Network.

The "pitching to the score" attribute argument is so stupid I can't think how anyone would try to make it as a point in serious conversation, much less as part of an argument for one's HOF legitimacy.

**RedRamage** · 01-22-2013, 10:37 AM

Originally Posted by ben9753

The "pitching to the score" attribute argument is so stupid I can't think how anyone would try to make it as a point in serious conversation, much less as part of an argument for one's HOF legitimacy.

Hmm... while I don't subscribe to the theory, I can see how someone could buy into it easily.

For example, guy on third pop fly to middle center field. In situation A, Damon catches the ball. Are you doing to sprint your hardest to make it home and slide hard? Probably not. You'll run hard and sneak a look to see if Damon got lucky and made a strong throw. And then when you see he isn't even trying to throw you out, you ease up and end up around jogging speed when you cross the plate. No reason to risk hurting yourself by running all out or sliding hard when there is no play at the plate, right?

But in situation B, it's Choo out there, who has a very strong and accurate arm. In this case you're going to run all out and are ready to slide... you're not bother to look back you're just running as fast as you can.

Why would pitchers do the same? If my team is up 5-0 I'm not going to throw as hard as I can or worry about a guy on base so much. Likely it isn't going to matter if they get one or two run. So why risk injury by other tasking my arm? Why give up all my good pitches so the opposition has it on film? Why play all out, balls to the wall baseball if the competition is inferior?

I don't find that logic that unreasonable or hard to understand. I do think it's wrong because unlike the play at the plate, there's still more happening. Once the runner crosses the plate that portion of the game is done. There is not more impact on the game if he runs slower and crosses the plate safely, or runs harder and crosses the plate safely. There's also very little problem of getting into a habit of not playing all out. There isn't danger of relaxing and therefore cause different, odd stress on an arm.

**Gehringer_2** · 01-22-2013, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Hmm... while I don't subscribe to the theory, I can see how someone could buy into it easily...

I think maybe this was once true, but just isn't much any longer. I think there was a time that a good pitcher with a big lead could reduce the number of breaking balls he was throwing at least until some guys hit their way on. And even today, you hear managers - esp older ones, with the "you have a lead - just throw strikes" mantra - which really means "just throw the fastball". So I think it is a fairly supportable view that at least once upon a time, pitchers did 'pitch to the score' to some degree, and in fact many older pitchers have described it as being the case.

But that doesn't mean it is still true today to any meaningful degree. Today, with lighter maple bats, more and better strength training, and less ability for defense-only players to make the MLB, there just aren't many players in many lineups that can't hit a fastball well enough that a pitcher can not 'ease up' in that way at all without being immediately in trouble. Today even a Verlander can't get by only with his fastball if guys don't think he will/can throw a breaking ball.

**Sven Draconian** · 01-22-2013, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by Gehringer_2

I think maybe this was once true, but just isn't much any longer. I think there was a time that a good pitcher with a big lead could reduce the number of breaking balls he was throwing at least until some guys hit their way on. And even today, you hear managers - esp older ones, with the "you have a lead - just throw strikes" mantra - which really means "just throw the fastball". So I think it is a fairly supportable view that at least once upon a time, pitchers did 'pitch to the score' to some degree, and in fact many older pitchers have described it as being the case.

But that doesn't mean it is still true today to any meaningful degree. Today, with lighter maple bats, more and better strength training, and less ability for defense-only players to make the MLB, there just aren't many players in many lineups that can't hit a fastball well enough that a pitcher can not 'ease up' in that way at all without being immediately in trouble. Today even a Verlander can't get by only with his fastball if guys don't think he will/can throw a breaking ball.

He probably did pitch to the score. I'm sure pitchers today pitch to the score. It's human nature. Nobody can give it their all at every moment (cliche's aside of course).

However, Morris (and his backers) seem to act like he was the only pitcher who ever had that idea. The argument is really saying that his ERA is higher than it should be because he was the only pitcher who bothered to pitch to the score. Nobody else did it, and why should he be penalized?
I find it especially ironic that following a HoF vote where a whole era of players were penalized for "cheating", people are actually arguing for Morris using the premise that he didn't try very hard if he didn't have too.

Bonds and Clemens roid up, dedicate themselves to training, completely transform their bodies at an age that is nearly impossible and take years off their lives in order to keep playing. Morris says he didn't try very hard. One is rewarded, the others are punished.

**Mr. Bigglesworth** · 01-22-2013, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by Sven Draconian

However, Morris (and his backers) seem to act like he was the only pitcher who ever had that idea. The argument is really saying that his ERA is higher than it should be because he was the only pitcher who bothered to pitch to the score. Nobody else did it, and why should he be penalized?

They also act as if it were an irrefutable fact, yet what few studies I've seen on it doesn't demonstrate he pitched to score - or perhaps more accurately - if he did pitch to score, it really didn't impact his ERA in a significant way, so it doesn't even explain his high ERA anyway.

**Sven Draconian** · 01-22-2013, 06:58 PM

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

They also act as if it were an irrefutable fact, yet what few studies I've seen on it doesn't demonstrate he pitched to score - or perhaps more accurately - if he did pitch to score, it really didn't impact his ERA in a significant way, so it doesn't even explain his high ERA anyway.

Which makes a lot of sense, because I'm sure the batters also "hit" to the score as well. If it is 7-2 in the 6th, is the batter thinking about his approach next AB or what he is going to do when they get back in town?

**RandyMarsh** · 01-22-2013, 08:11 PM

IP R RA
-----------------------------
More 82 2/3 38 4.14
+7 43 2/3 19 3.92
+6 76 2/3 42 4.93
+5 123 2/3 63 4.58
+4 186 2/3 83 4.00
+3 290 2/3 150 4.64
+2 377 165 3.94
+1 549 255 4.18
0 1224 1/3 540 3.97
-1 396 206 4.68
-2 216 1/3 105 4.37
-3 111 2/3 66 5.32
-4 49 29 5.33
-5 15 14 8.40
-6 3 4 12.00
-7 1 0 0.00
Less 0 0 N/A

TOT. 3746 1/3 1779 4.27

I found this table from this old BP article about Morris. Baseball Prospectus | The Jack Morris Project The first row of numbers is the differential in score, the second row is the amount of innings he pitched in that particular situation, the third is the runs against and the last is his runs against average. Even though his RAA was best with the game tied to me this table doesn't support his pitch to the score theory. The article goes more indepth about it and is a pretty good but lengthy read.

**Gehringer_2** · 01-22-2013, 08:21 PM

Originally Posted by RandyMarsh

I found this table from this old BP article about Morris. Baseball Prospectus | The Jack Morris Project The first row of numbers is the differential in score, the second row is the amount of innings he pitched in that particular situation, the third is the runs against and the last is his runs against average. Even though his RAA was best with the game tied to me this table doesn't support his pitch to the score theory. The article goes more indepth about it and is a pretty good but lengthy read.

I'm not arguing the conclusion but even if 'pitching to score' is true, I'd be skeptical that it would be detectable in a pitcher's totals because the number of pitch to score opportunities is probably too small to swing global stats more than the general noise of good and bad starts.

**Yoda** · 01-25-2013, 10:06 PM

Dirks didn't make the LF'ers list, but was right on the outside.

They're doing RF'ers now.

**Yoda** · 01-25-2013, 10:17 PM

Torii came in at #7 according to the shredder.

**Yoda** · 01-25-2013, 10:49 PM

Wow... Bill James snubbed Torii. Not even in the top 10. Must not have liked the k/bb and high BABIP. Also only had Stanton at #6. His list was pretty whacky.

Eric Byrnes snubbed him also.

**tiger337** · 01-26-2013, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by Yoda

Wow... Bill James snubbed Torii. Not even in the top 10. Must not have liked the k/bb and high BABIP. Also only had Stanton at #6. His list was pretty whacky.

Eric Byrnes snubbed him also.

Give his age and statistical trends, Hunter could definitely be headed out of the top 10. There is a theory that his peripherals dropped because he changed his approach in the second spot in the order, but I think he won't be as good as some expect. He still should be a lot better than what they had last year though.

**Sven Draconian** · 01-26-2013, 12:43 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

Give his age and statistical trends, Hunter could definitely be headed out of the top 10. There is a theory that his peripherals dropped because he changed his approach in the second spot in the order, but I think he won't be as good as some expect. He still should be a lot better than what they had last year though.

Anybody who is expecting him to duplicate what he did last year is out of their mind. He is not going to hit .313. My expectation is for him to put up a .340 OBP and slug right around .450. With that he'll play good defense and provide solid base running (some opportunistic steals and good decisions on when to advance, when to hold ect). He should be right around a 3 win player.

**RedRamage** · 01-31-2013, 01:47 PM

Firstbasemen and Catcher tomorrow (Friday) night.

Next week on the 8th will be Thirdbasemen and SS.

**Ari 2** · 02-01-2013, 10:36 PM

First Base

1. Joey Votto
2. Albert Pujols
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Prince Fielder
5. Mark Teixeira
6. Allen Graig
7. Paul Konerko
8. Paul Goldschmidt
9. Edwin Encarnacion
10. Mike Napoli

**ErieTigerFan** · 02-01-2013, 10:57 PM

Originally Posted by mmwatkin

I don't think it is crazy for people to wait and see if he can keep his pace for more than one year before crowning him the best CF in baseball. He did return to human the last two months of the season.

My thoughts exactly. Wait and see if he wasn't a one-year wonder. I think pitchers caught up to him late in 2012.

**Ari 2** · 02-01-2013, 11:04 PM

Catchers

1. Buster Posey
2. Yadier Molina
3. Carlos Ruiz
4. Miguel Montero
5. Joe Mauer
6. Salvador Perez
7. Carlos Santana
8. Matt Wieters
9. Alex Avila
10. AJ Ellis

**ErieTigerFan** · 02-01-2013, 11:05 PM

Originally Posted by Antrat

Reality TV gets many more viewers than Breaking Bad.

Hear hear!

Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul RULE!!!

**RedRamage** · 02-01-2013, 11:10 PM

Originally Posted by Sven Draconian

Avila probably cracks the list.
Hunter probably cracks the list.
Prince should be just behind Pujols and Votto
Cabrera should be #1.

Correct on Hunter, Avila, and (almost) Prince! Nice job.

**Yoda** · 02-01-2013, 11:41 PM

Originally Posted by ErieTigerFan

My thoughts exactly. Wait and see if he wasn't a one-year wonder. I think pitchers caught up to him late in 2012.

He can fall off a lot and still be one of the best overall players in the game.

Why isn't anyone complaining about Jackson being so high? Maybe his season was a fluke too.

**Yoda** · 02-01-2013, 11:45 PM

Bill James has not impressed me at all with his rankings. Putting Votto 3rd behind Pujols and Prince? Saying he'd take Pujols this year ahead of Votto if he could select just one? His reasoning being Pujols has 900 more career RBI's... dumb. Pujols is trending down and is now 33.

No way.

**tiger337** · 02-01-2013, 11:56 PM

Originally Posted by Yoda

He can fall off a lot and still be one of the best overall players in the game.

.

This is correct. The only people who seem to be questioning his ability are Tigers fans. Trout was supposed to be a great talent. He blossomed sooner than expected, but it's not like he came out of nowhere and surprised everyone.

**tiger337** · 02-01-2013, 11:59 PM

Originally Posted by Yoda

Bill James has not impressed me at all with his rankings. Putting Votto 3rd behind Pujols and Prince? Saying he'd take Pujols this year ahead of Votto if he could select just one? His reasoning being Pujols has 900 more career RBI's... dumb. Pujols is trending down and is now 33.

No way.

I would put Votto #1, but James does have a job within a major league organization, so maybe he knows something. Votto was not healthy when he came back at the end of the year. Maybe he's still not 100%.

**Yoda** · 02-02-2013, 12:08 AM

Originally Posted by tiger337

I would put Votto #1, but James does have a job within a major league organization, so maybe he knows something. Votto was not healthy when he came back at the end of the year. Maybe he's still not 100%.

He was asked if it was a health concern, and he replied with something like "no, if he has 900 RBI's the next 3 years I might move him up." It didn't make any sense at all.

**tiger337** · 02-02-2013, 12:25 AM

Originally Posted by Yoda

He was asked if it was a health concern, and he replied with something like "no, if he has 900 RBI's the next 3 years I might move him up." It didn't make any sense at all.

oh well, probably just playing contrarian then. It's his favorite game.

**Oblong** · 02-02-2013, 09:12 AM

Is It just me or is the 1B position kind of weak right now?

**Gehringer_2** · 02-02-2013, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by Oblong

Is It just me or is the 1B position kind of weak right now?

No, I think you are right,-1b does seem to have a lot of guys getting old at the same time, plus Morneau's problems, Hosmer coming back to earth and Cabby's gone to third.

**Sven Draconian** · 02-02-2013, 10:22 AM

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Correct on Hunter, Avila, and (almost) Prince! Nice job.

If you sign up for just $100 a year, I have your SURE FIRE, GURANTEE, ABSOLUTE LOCK handicapping secrets

Im really surprised at Adrian Gonzaelz ranked ahead of Prince Fielder. Prince beats him in OBP every season since 2009. He beats him in OPS+ 3 out of those 4 seasons. He is 2 years younger (Age 29 season vs Age 31 season). That isn't even counting the fact that Gonzalez was very mediocre last season.

Yea yea yea, defensive value. When you look at Prince's defensive trends, he has been getting consistently better throughout his career. Gonzalez is obviously an elite defender, but I have a very difficult time accepting that he is 25 (ish) runs better than Prince Fielder. Even though I do think Prince is a pretty brutal fielder (I think he's a little worse than the defensive metrics do)...... 25 runs is a lot of singles.....