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  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    I know he has trouble versus LH batters. Sanchez has trouble vs RH batters. There might me some team where you'd rather have the LH pitch than the RH, but I don't think you plug someone in as a full-time starter just because he is a LH. Match-ups are more for bullpen management.
    I think Porcello really does have a problem vs. LHB. He's been awful the last two seasons.

  2. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by Microline133 View Post
    I think you're correct here, Lee.

    Drew Smyly has had injury issues repeatedly throughout his career. The Tigers are right to question his ability to handle a full-season workload in a starting rotation. This is the biggest reason I support holding onto both players heading into the season.

    2007 (High School) - Back and elbow trouble
    2008 (Freshman at Arkansas) - Red-shirted the season, stress fracture in left elbow
    2009 (RS-Freshman at Arkansas) - 58 IP (blister issues)
    2010 (RS-Sophomore at Arkansas) - 103 IP (blister issues)
    2011 (Pro Debut) - Sore left elbow, 126 IP
    2012 (Second full pro season) - Right intercostal strain, blister issues, 117 IP

    This isn't a guy a team can count on to log 150-180 innings in 2013 and they would be wise to make sure they at least have a backup plan if they choose to make him the fifth starter. That backup plan does not presently exist in the minor leagues, barring some pretty unexpected leap forward in control and consistency from Casey Crosby.
    Interesting about the blister issues. Do you think that they'll attempt to change the way he grips the ball, or just let it be?

  3. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Microline133 View Post
    I think you're correct here, Lee.

    Drew Smyly has had injury issues repeatedly throughout his career. The Tigers are right to question his ability to handle a full-season workload in a starting rotation. This is the biggest reason I support holding onto both players heading into the season.

    2007 (High School) - Back and elbow trouble
    2008 (Freshman at Arkansas) - Red-shirted the season, stress fracture in left elbow
    2009 (RS-Freshman at Arkansas) - 58 IP (blister issues)
    2010 (RS-Sophomore at Arkansas) - 103 IP (blister issues)
    2011 (Pro Debut) - Sore left elbow, 126 IP
    2012 (Second full pro season) - Right intercostal strain, blister issues, 117 IP

    This isn't a guy a team can count on to log 150-180 innings in 2013 and they would be wise to make sure they at least have a backup plan if they choose to make him the fifth starter. That backup plan does not presently exist in the minor leagues, barring some pretty unexpected leap forward in control and consistency from Casey Crosby.



    Thank you! All this talk of trading Porcello is crazy, in my opinion.
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  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by A.J.K. View Post
    Thank you! All this talk of trading Porcello is crazy, in my opinion.
    It's the most logical thing to do.

  5. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by T&P_Fan View Post
    It's the most logical thing to do.
    Or you could just send Smyly back to Toledo and use Porcello as the 5th starter in 2013.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth View Post
    Or you could just send Smyly back to Toledo and use Porcello as the 5th starter in 2013.
    If you want to make the team worse, than yes. Look, there is lots of data that says Porcello is a very hittable pitcher who can't sustain his velocity past 75 pitches. 4 years of data support this. I guess some think he will magically stop giving up hits, or his endurance will improve. But it doesn't seeHm plausible.

    Just because you have 4 good pitchers doesn't mean you need to start a crappy one in the 5th slot.

  7. #167
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    It doesn't seem plausible that a pitcher could improve over time?
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  8. #168
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    Why do sports fans hate depth so badly?
    Every time you play a hand of you poker you wanna run through a mental check list. Head Position Hand Position Neck Position Breathing Posture. More than 25 items. It's a lot. And that why I've come up with a handy mnemonic device. Just one word: HPHPNPBPECMSPAMDCPAFTSTTL. It's easy.

  9. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Microline133 View Post
    I think you're correct here, Lee.

    Drew Smyly has had injury issues repeatedly throughout his career. The Tigers are right to question his ability to handle a full-season workload in a starting rotation. This is the biggest reason I support holding onto both players heading into the season.

    2007 (High School) - Back and elbow trouble
    2008 (Freshman at Arkansas) - Red-shirted the season, stress fracture in left elbow
    2009 (RS-Freshman at Arkansas) - 58 IP (blister issues)
    2010 (RS-Sophomore at Arkansas) - 103 IP (blister issues)
    2011 (Pro Debut) - Sore left elbow, 126 IP
    2012 (Second full pro season) - Right intercostal strain, blister issues, 117 IP

    This isn't a guy a team can count on to log 150-180 innings in 2013 and they would be wise to make sure they at least have a backup plan if they choose to make him the fifth starter. That backup plan does not presently exist in the minor leagues, barring some pretty unexpected leap forward in control and consistency from Casey Crosby.

    Hmm. Young pitcher with history of injuries. Possible need at Shortstop.

    Where have I seen this one before?

    Any mediocre fielding shortstops coming off of career years out there??
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  10. #170
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    Jason Beck ‏@beckjason

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  11. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by lesgoblu02 View Post
    Why do sports fans hate depth so badly?
    Good question since injuries decide so many championships.
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  12. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by A.J.K. View Post
    It doesn't seem plausible that a pitcher could improve over time?
    It is completely plausible. Unfortunately for Porcello he has gotten worse by the years.

  13. #173
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    My take: The Tigers have no real need to move Porcello and it doesn't hurt to have SP depth, in case of an injury. Both Fister and Smyly missed time for injury, and Scherzer had the shoulder fatigue issue at the end of the season. What do the Tigers have, Casey Crosby, Adam Wilk, and Duane Below?

    If they don't get what they want for Porcello, I think they should keep him and put Smyly in Toledo or in the 'pen. Someone will inevitably get hurt. No starting rotation goes from 1 to 162 without anyone missing a game here or there.
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  14. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by lesgoblu02 View Post
    Why do sports fans hate depth so badly?
    Who's to say they can't trade porcello for a better 2b and use infante for a sup? He can play all over the place.
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  15. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth View Post
    Or you could just send Smyly back to Toledo and use Porcello as the 5th starter in 2013.
    Bollocks!
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    Quote Originally Posted by T&P_Fan View Post
    It is completely plausible. Unfortunately for Porcello he has gotten worse by the years.
    Untrue.
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  17. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    Interesting about the blister issues. Do you think that they'll attempt to change the way he grips the ball, or just let it be?
    Or soak his hand in pickle juice or worse....

    Resolved: Moises Alou and Jorge Posada are right to use urine to toughen up their hands for hitting.
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  18. #178
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    Anibal Sanchez ‏@AnibalSanchez19

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  19. #179
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    Really happy with this deal. I think he's gonna be a fantastic pitcher for the next 3 seasons, then be a pretty good pitcher for 2. This guy could be a #2 pitcher on many other teams. Plus, it maintains that "4 Studs" playoff rotation. I'll take this 4 over any other team's 4 all day.

  20. #180
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    I don't get the #2-#4 talk about our starters.... I see it as JV then the next 3. Put them in any order. "80 million for your 4th starter....?" Well, who said he's the 4th starter?
    .

  21. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oblong View Post
    I don't get the #2-#4 talk about our starters.... I see it as JV then the next 3. Put them in any order. "80 million for your 4th starter....?" Well, who said he's the 4th starter?
    I agree. I see them as 2a, 2b and 2c. I don't a big difference in quality between the three. Scherzer's strikeouts are great, but he still has trouble pitching deep into games and goes through a long stretch where he struggles every year.
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  22. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by T&P_Fan View Post
    If you want to make the team worse, than yes. Look, there is lots of data that says Porcello is a very hittable pitcher who can't sustain his velocity past 75 pitches. 4 years of data support this. I guess some think he will magically stop giving up hits, or his endurance will improve. But it doesn't seeHm plausible.

    Just because you have 4 good pitchers doesn't mean you need to start a crappy one in the 5th slot.
    Well, now wait a minute. I don't think Porcello will get magically better. I don't really like him to be honest, and took a fair amount of grief here when I suggested the Tigers should start being worried about him near the end of his second season.

    But...I guess I am not seeing what the Tigers are realistically going to get for him that is going to make them much better than they are with him on the roster now. Are they going to get a good OF or SS prospect? I personally tend to doubt it. And the Tigers are trying to win it all now anyway.

    How much better are the Tigers going to be with Smyly rather than Porcello as the number 5 in 2013? Because as much as you bag on Porcello, he is good #5 now, and it isn't like Smyly is leaps and bounds ahead of him. My guess is the Tigers maybe win 1 extra game with Smyly as they would with Rick, and I don't think the division race is going to be close.

    Let Smyly develop and use Porcello. If someone gets hurt or is struggling badly, call up Smyly.

  23. #183
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    I don't think smyly is a win better than porcello, especially considering the 60 innings that smyly won't pitch that will be left to Crosby or wilk.
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    Ok, the #4 thing is a bit misguided. I agree, all three of Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez are very close and are all great pitchers.

  25. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelton View Post
    I don't think smyly is a win better than porcello, especially considering the 60 innings that smyly won't pitch that will be left to Crosby or wilk.
    Oh, good to know.
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    Does anybody know the final details ? Option year amount ? Buy out ? etc ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
    Who's to say they can't trade porcello for a better 2b and use infante for a sup? He can play all over the place.
    I'd be in favor of this, but there just seems to be no middle infielders even available right now. In the post-steroid era, there's just not a lot of guys at these positions anymore that aren't horrible hitters. Half of the teams in the league are struggling to find replacement-level SS, 2B, 3B or C.
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  29. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCouga View Post
    I'd be in favor of this, but there just seems to be no middle infielders even available right now. In the post-steroid era, there's just not a lot of guys at these positions anymore that aren't horrible hitters. Half of the teams in the league are struggling to find replacement-level SS, 2B, 3B or C.
    Placido should retire and start a clinic to teach young low ISO infielders how to hit for decent OBP.
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  30. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
    Oh, good to know.
    Good to know.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oblong View Post
    I don't get the #2-#4 talk about our starters.... I see it as JV then the next 3. Put them in any order. "80 million for your 4th starter....?" Well, who said he's the 4th starter?
    When someone speaks about a pitcher as a #2, they are talking about the caliber of his stuff, not where he slots in an actual rotation. It's a hypothetical construct. You could have five #1's in your rotation, or five number 5's.

  32. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Longgone View Post
    When someone speaks about a pitcher as a #2, they are talking about the caliber of his stuff, not where he slots in an actual rotation. It's a hypothetical construct. You could have five #1's in your rotation, or five number 5's.
    That's what scouts talk about. When fans talk about it, I think they are usually talking about actual performance compared to other pitchers.
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  33. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth View Post
    Well, now wait a minute. I don't think Porcello will get magically better. I don't really like him to be honest, and took a fair amount of grief here when I suggested the Tigers should start being worried about him near the end of his second season.

    But...I guess I am not seeing what the Tigers are realistically going to get for him that is going to make them much better than they are with him on the roster now. Are they going to get a good OF or SS prospect? I personally tend to doubt it. And the Tigers are trying to win it all now anyway.

    How much better are the Tigers going to be with Smyly rather than Porcello as the number 5 in 2013? Because as much as you bag on Porcello, he is good #5 now, and it isn't like Smyly is leaps and bounds ahead of him. My guess is the Tigers maybe win 1 extra game with Smyly as they would with Rick, and I don't think the division race is going to be close.

    Let Smyly develop and use Porcello. If someone gets hurt or is struggling badly, call up Smyly.
    Well I believe that Smyly will be markedly better than Porcello. I think Smyly will be a solid #3, Porcello struggles to be a #5.

    Either way, I find it very unlikely that Porcello comes to training camp a Tiger.

  34. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelton View Post
    Untrue.
    Perhaps, but it is certainly true that the data shows he has not gotten better in any regard:

    2009: 3.96 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 9.3 H/9
    2010: 4.92 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 10.4 H/9
    2011: 4.75 ERA, 1.407 WHIP, 10.4 H/9
    2012: 4.59 ERA, 1.531 WHIP, 11.5 H/9

    Porcello has had a worse WHIP and H/9 every single year, every other category has shown little to no improvement or regression. The WHIP is the most telling stat, every single year he gets worse at keeping runners off the base baths. Where has he gotten better?

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    Runners on base doesn't tell everything. What types of hits is he giving up? His HR rate has dropped each year. Is he learning how to better strand said runners? His k rate has increased each year. Hits given up just as likely tells you the defense behind him is getting worse. WHIP isn't a tell-all statistic.
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    I don't consider WHIP to be the most telling stat unless you are playing rotisserie baseball. It's not a terrible stat, but the hits component is influenced by too many things beyond the pitchers control. I would say he has stayed pretty stable throughout his career which is not really a great thing since we'd like him to be getting better. His rookie year looked better because he had superior defense and maybe some luck that year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by T&P_Fan View Post
    Perhaps, but it is certainly true that the data shows he has not gotten better in any regard:

    2009: 3.96 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 4.77 FIP, 2.0 WAR, 4.69 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, BABIP .277
    2010: 4.92 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 4.31 FIP, 2.0 WAR, 4.65 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, BABIP .307
    2011: 4.75 ERA, 1.407 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 4.06 FIP, 2.7 WAR, 5.14 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, BABIP .316
    2012: 4.59 ERA, 1.531 WHIP, 11.5 H/9, 3.91 FIP, 2.9 WAR, 5.46 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, BABIP .344

    Porcello has had a worse WHIP and H/9 every single year, every other category has shown little to no improvement or regression. The WHIP is the most telling stat, every single year he gets worse at keeping runners off the base baths. Where has he gotten better?
    Here, I added some of the stats you decided not to cherry pick. :P
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
    Runners on base doesn't tell everything. What types of hits is he giving up? His HR rate has dropped each year. Is he learning how to better strand said runners? His k rate has increased each year. Hits given up just as likely tells you the defense behind him is getting worse. WHIP isn't a tell-all statistic.
    His k rate is now at 5.5 with league average north of 7. So lets say he does continue to improve. In 4 seasons he has gone from 4.7 k/9 to 5.5. So in 4 years we would still see less than a 7 k/9 if he continues as is. And really, do you see him developing a put out pitch?

    WHIP is a telling stat, but we really don't need that here. Porcello gives up way too many hard hit balls, even with a tremendous defense behind him I would speculate that he would still give up a lot of hits and not strike anyone out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
    Runners on base doesn't tell everything. What types of hits is he giving up? His HR rate has dropped each year. Is he learning how to better strand said runners? His k rate has increased each year. Hits given up just as likely tells you the defense behind him is getting worse. WHIP isn't a tell-all statistic.
    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    I don't consider WHIP to be the most telling stat unless you are playing rotisserie baseball. It's not a terrible stat, but the hits component is influenced by too many things beyond the pitchers control. I would say he has stayed pretty stable throughout his career which is not really a great thing since we'd like him to be getting better. His rookie year looked better because he had superior defense and maybe some luck that year.
    Don't you know that all stats represent actions that happen in a vacuum? That is why we can simply ignore the ones that don't support the narrative we are presenting.
    It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. -Carl Sagan http://th07.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/...yx-d41sg12.png

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    Quote Originally Posted by T&P_Fan View Post
    His k rate is now at 5.5 with league average north of 7. So lets say he does continue to improve. In 4 seasons he has gone from 4.7 k/9 to 5.5. So in 4 years we would still see less than a 7 k/9 if he continues as is. And really, do you see him developing a put out pitch?

    WHIP is a telling stat, but we really don't need that here. Porcello gives up way too many hard hit balls, even with a tremendous defense behind him I would speculate that he would still give up a lot of hits and not strike anyone out.
    Sounds like a prime candidate to bring back a really good piece in a trade.
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