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11-27-2012, 02:07 PM #241
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I wouldn't say in any seriousness that Cody Ross' availablity is hampering Josh Hamilton's search for a huge contract or that Zack Greinke's value is being undermined because of the fellow free agent Carlos Zambrano- and there is a reason for that. Drew's own value is lagging because he simply isn't a vastly superior player over what an average shortstop should be able to provide on any MLB team.
It's not like Drew is a player who turned down a $13.25M qualifying offer so now any team that signs him has to lose a draft pick. As a matter of fact, it's quite the opposite, the A's gave Drew a $1M buyout of his 2013 contract option to leave. To make matters even better, his previous team the Diamondbacks traded Drew on August 21st, 2012 while the Diamondbacks were only 6 games out of 1st place in the division and 5 games out of the wild card spot with 39 games left to play. (I always think August is a really good time to trade a “valuable” MLB SS while your in the middle of pennant run- makes good sense right?). And what great haul did the Diamondback’s get in return to help them try and win the division? A's gave them Sean Jamieson who played 14 more games for West Bend at the Diamondback's A level team before the minor league season ended. Think about this for a second, the A's got what would be the #1 Free agent SS for 2012 in a trade for a single A infielder and then sent Drew packing at the end of the 2012 season when they could have just accepted the $10M option and kept Drew for 2013- but they didn't.
Simply put Drew's own performance and what he has (or has NOT) brought to other ball clubs is what is influencing his value the most, not necessary that other mediocre SS options that may still be available that are pushing down Drew‘s value instead.“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-27-2012, 02:20 PM #242
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I'm thinking Boras and Drew are trying to get teams to bid up his price and it's just not working, New York didn't bite and I think the Tigers and the Red Soxs interest is only luke warm at best. If there was a $12M per year for 3-4 years offer given, Drew would be shaking hands and showing off a new uniform by now. This could still happen but I think the market for once might be getting the better of Mr. Boras right now.
I am strongly starting to believe that Boras and Drew are now contemplating plan B which simply calls for a one year deal that will pay the most and will let Drew start at SS full time. If Drew think's he's worth more than $10M per year and a long term deal, he will not accept a 2-3 year deal that pays $6-$8M per year instead.
We'll see what happens, but if Drew doesn't get that $10M+ for 3+ years in the next few weeks, I think he'll take a one year deal for as much money as the highest bidder is willing to pay...“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-27-2012, 02:27 PM #243
That stuff is ancient history and out of context. Teams' strategies in August are very different from the offseason. The number of contending teams who needed a shortstop on the fly was not large, and the Drew-Arizona relationship was clearly severed. Now, it's a matter of supply/demand and teams looking for veteran infielders are weighing guys like Drew, Escobar, Peralta, Scutaro, Lowrie, etc. against each other - cost to acquire vs. expected performance. Of course Ross/Hamilton and Zambrano/Greinke are not good analogies because they aren't anywhere as comparable to each other as that group of shortstops.
2013 AAT: Eugenio Suarez - SS
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11-27-2012, 02:47 PM #244
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EXACTLY!
And that's my point! There is no question Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke are litterally the two top position players for their position for this years free agency. They stand pretty tall compared to the other free agents and other options that are available. Can you really say that about Stephen Drew and how he ranks with other shortstop options? Does he really stand out like a Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke for his shortstop position?!?
You can litterally put Drew, Escobar, Peralta, Scutaro and Lowrie's names all in a hat and my hunch is that their would not be that much difference between them if teams could pick a SS that way. (Ok, ok, some will hit for more power, some will steal more bases, some will have a tad bit better golve or slightly more range, but overall, they are all sort of bla...). This is why Drew's value is down, he just isn't that great compared to others in his class right now.“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-27-2012, 03:45 PM #245
But if his value is down, he fits our needs pretty well, especially at a low cost and if we can get value out of Peralta. I'd rather have Drew for 2 yrs $15-16 mil or 3yrs $21-24 mil + a decent prospect (or save a Garcia/Smyly prospect in a bigger trade) than Peralta for 1yr $6 mil and have to find another option next season. Like Lee, I am considerably more confident of Drew's defense going forward and think their offense is likely to be similar except that Drew is the better base runner.
Micah 7:7
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11-27-2012, 04:31 PM #246
No, that's why I said it wasn't a good analogy.
You implied earlier that the comparable supply wasn't impacting Drew's value but now it looks like you're saying the opposite. None of those guys stands way out above the rest for various reasons, but we're not shopping in the Tulo-Reyes district here. I do believe if Drew's injury didn't kill his last 2 seasons, his value would be much higher. There is better-than-average talent there.2013 AAT: Eugenio Suarez - SS
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11-27-2012, 05:49 PM #247
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Why not? The Blue Jays got it done and maybe we should be shopping in the Tulo-Reyes district anyway....
Remember Tulowitzki's contract goes from $5.5M for 2011 to $8.25M for 2012 to $10M in 2013 to $16M in 2014 and $20M in 2015. Or let me say this another way, his contract price DOUBLES between 2013 and 2015. At some point Colorado is going to realize that there will be deminishing returns if they try to trade him the longer they hold onto him (less prospects in exchange for more relief of the value of Tulowitzki's contract) and my hunch is Colorado will come to this idea sometime between this year ($10M) and the looking at going into 2014 and paying Tulo $16M. But we'll see.
Why does everyone say this?
Drew didn't play hurt for part of 2011, the guy fractured his ankle and was gone the rest of that season and part of 2012. The funny thing is he was not that good before he broke his ankle and he wasn't a whole lot better when he came back. Look at Drew's 2011 numbers, was he playing with a broken ankle all that year? Again, I can make the case that Drew is also a player in decline, ankle fracture or not. The problem is Peralta can't point to a leg cast and say "trust me, I feel much better now...give me $10M+..."“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-27-2012, 06:04 PM #248
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11-27-2012, 06:09 PM #249
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I never said that Drew was "vastly superior" over an average shortstop. Clearly he is in the same category of Peralta and Escobar. That is why he is being impacted by the fact that they are available via trade, and already have set a contract baseline of $5-6 million per season. If you take these guys off the market, suddenly Drew and Scutaro are the only real shortstops available and can command a bigger contract. This is a basic supply-demand equation.
Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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11-27-2012, 06:12 PM #250
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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11-27-2012, 06:14 PM #251
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Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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11-27-2012, 06:17 PM #252
I don't see a case for a player in decline. Drew was at .713 half-way through 2011 when he got hurt. Not great, but not horrific. Also consider that he's generally been a better 2nd half player so it's not a stretch to think he could/would have finished the year higher. In 2010 he was .810, 2009 .748 and 2008 .836. Those are pretty solid numbers for a shortstop with a decent glove. Also this year, he performed a bit better for Oakland further removed from the injury and the Arizona situation.
I'm not trying to bang a Drew drum or anything, but I feel he'd be a solid acquisition depending his health, the contract terms what they could get for Peralta. That said, I'd be fine with Peralta at SS in 2013, too.2013 AAT: Eugenio Suarez - SS
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11-27-2012, 07:04 PM #253
I do not see Drew's first half of 2011 as the beginning of a decline at all. He had a .800 OPS mid-way through June, then he had a slump, then an injury. That doesn't look like a career-altering decline to me. Health is my only concern with him.
Lee Panas
detroittigertales.com
"They can use both (old- and new-school statistics)," Cabrera said. "In 2012, we've got to take advantage of all that.
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11-27-2012, 07:53 PM #254
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Interesting.
Drew's 2011 splits.
Split G AB R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip April/March 22 81 15 26 2 22 9 15 .321 .389 .531 .920 .375 May 24 87 14 21 1 7 13 22 .241 .347 .333 .680 .313 June 27 106 14 26 2 14 7 22 .245 .289 .406 .695 .289 July 13 47 1 8 0 2 1 15 .170 .188 .255 .443 .250
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/27/2012.
I mean .920 OPS in 81 AB's in April/March is really good. It's the .447 OPS in 47 AB's in July that bugs me and I'm not really seeing much to celebrate with a .680 OPS in May or .695 OPS in June. Drew's .800 OPS survived into mid June because he was amazing in his first 81 AB's and then drifiting to fair then ending in partly crappy with the other 270 AB's.
When I total it up I see Drew hitting OPS of .713 for 2011. Then in 2012 his OPS went to .657 for the season (Brennan Boesch's OPS for 2012 was .659) I just think the words "decline" seem pretty appropriate to the circumstances.Last edited by STLTiger69; 11-27-2012 at 08:39 PM.
“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-27-2012, 08:06 PM #255
You're digging too deep into small sample sizes STL.
Lee Panas
detroittigertales.com
"They can use both (old- and new-school statistics)," Cabrera said. "In 2012, we've got to take advantage of all that.
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11-27-2012, 08:35 PM #256
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While were on the subject of slumps, I thought this was interesting too.
This is Troy Tulowitzki 2011 splits for the season;
Split G GS PA AB HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS April/March 25 25 109 94 7 17 14 9 .298 .385 .617 1.002 May 28 28 119 110 4 14 8 9 .209 .269 .364 .633 June 27 27 117 106 4 22 10 11 .311 .376 .500 .876 July 23 23 99 91 5 20 8 18 .352 .404 .615 1.019 August 29 27 122 101 8 21 15 24 .356 .438 .673 1.111 Sept/Oct 11 10 40 35 2 11 4 8 .286 .350 .486 .836
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/27/2012.
You'll notice how Troy started April March with a 1.002 OPS, then really slumped in May for a .633 OPS. Then in June July and August he sort of pulled out of it and then tailed off near the end of the season for a season average OPS of .916.
I guess I'm just not a big fan of Drew...
Sorry!Last edited by STLTiger69; 11-27-2012 at 08:41 PM.
“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-27-2012, 08:59 PM #257
No need to be a big fan of Drew. There are legit reasons to not want the Tigers to sign him. You just won't convince me that his 2011 numbers indicates a downward trend to his career.
Lee Panas
detroittigertales.com
"They can use both (old- and new-school statistics)," Cabrera said. "In 2012, we've got to take advantage of all that.
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So you're telling me that Troy Tulowitzki is going to be a Detroit Tiger? Likely.
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11-28-2012, 10:52 AM #259
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Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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11-28-2012, 11:01 AM #260
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How "likely" was it that Jose Reyes would leave the Mets to sign with the Marlins and then get traded to the Blue Jays the next year?...Totally improbable ..never going to happen right?
Also I can guarantee the easiest way to take the Tigers out of the Troy Tulowitzki running (or any other elite shortstop that will be available in the next few years) is to give Drew and his agent Boras what they want. I think if Drew signs with the Tigers I'll just go get a jersey with Drew's number and have "INGE 2.0" put on for the players name.
Perhaps I'll start a "Countdown to the Tigers releasing Stephen Drew" thread too.... lol...Last edited by STLTiger69; 11-28-2012 at 12:15 PM.
“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-28-2012, 11:10 AM #261
ShortStop - What are the options?..... Jhonny.
It's pronounced Canada, and no, I haven't.
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11-28-2012, 11:10 AM #262
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Very true, but it sort of odd. I guess people are just very down on Peralta and any move to get a "upgrade" seems like the absolute right thing to do. In my book after a year or two of Drew we will all be back complaining that we need to find a upgrade of Drew somehow and I think that will drive me more nuts than anything else. That's why my position on this is simply concentrate on getting a clear upgrade at SS to begin with during this year and next off season and forget about getting someone who is a slight bit of an upgrade for this season and probably checking in at nearly double the cost of what we already have.
Again, reasonable people a free to disagree and perhaps Drew will replay his 2008 seasons all over again for his time with Detroit and I'll be eating a nice cold plate of crow for those yeas. But I just see better options out their than Drew in the near term and I think the best course of action is to let Drew move on elsewhere and focus on getting a true upgrade at the SS position instead.“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-28-2012, 11:21 AM #263
In a nutshell it call comes down to whether you think the team is better with Peralta at 1 year, vs. Drew at however many years + whatever Peralta would bring in a trade. Comparing Peralta vs. Drew is not what the exercis is because the plan isn't a 1:1 replacement.
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11-28-2012, 11:22 AM #264
I like Drew better than Peralta by a small margin. Whether I actually want them to make a move depends on how many years Drew would get and what they can get for Peralta.
Lee Panas
detroittigertales.com
"They can use both (old- and new-school statistics)," Cabrera said. "In 2012, we've got to take advantage of all that.
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11-28-2012, 11:23 AM #265
Tulo isn't coming here. He loves Colorado and sees himself as the Derek Jeter of the Rockies who see him the same way. Not to mention, adding another $16-$20 mil long term deal player to this team doesn't make a whole lot of sense.Also I can guarantee the easiest way to take the Tigers out of the Troy Tulowitzki runningMicah 7:7
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11-28-2012, 11:26 AM #266
+1
+2I like Drew better than Peralta by a small margin. Whether I actually want them to make a move depends on how many years Drew would get and what they can get for Peralta.
I'd take Drew for up to 3 years $24 mil + Peralta as a trade chip over Peralta for 1 yr $6 mil.
If they were both FA's and I could sign Peralta for 1yr $6 mil, or Drew for 1 year, I'd take Drew as long as it didn't get over $8 mil.Micah 7:7
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11-28-2012, 11:44 AM #267
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Let's see what Drew signs for and how long and see if that makes sense to you. Drew "supporters" have said it will be like only $6-8M, I'm thinking closer to $10-$12M per year for a multi-year deal. Let's see who's more correct...
Granderson loved Detroit too.....but now plays for the Yankees. It's called a contract, if a player doesn't have a no trade clause, that player can be traded. Ask the former Marlins Reyes and Buehrle how that works... Tulo has a $2M trade bonus clause in his contract and he can only be traded once during the life of his contract, but it is not a bar to being traded from Colorado at all.“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-28-2012, 11:51 AM #268
If it would take anywhere close to that, I wouldn't do it. I don't think it will. On XM they seem to think he could sign a deal similar to Peralta's. I don't think it will be that though, but think a 3yr $21-24 mil deal would end up getting it done. Or 2yr, $15 mil with a $10 mil option and $2mil buyout.Let's see what Drew signs for and how long and see if that makes sense to you. Drew "supporters" have said it will be like only $6-8M, I'm thinking closer to $10-$12M per year for a multi-year deal. Let's see who's more correct...
The fact that Oakland let him go for $9 mil ($10 mil-the $1 mil they paid for the buyout) tells me he isn't likely to get 3yrs at $10 mil per. If he signed a 1 year deal, I could see him getting around $9-$10 mil, but not on a 3 year deal.Micah 7:7
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11-28-2012, 12:01 PM #269
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Oakland lets a lot of players go via trade and as free agent because of money, so the fact that Oakland didn't pick up Drew's option doesn't tell me a lot. Jhonny Peralta's "deal" with the Tigers was 2011 for $5.25M, 2012 for $5M and a team option of $6M for 2013 without a buyout.
I don't think Drew is going to go for that "similar" deal Peralta got at all. Just last year Drew made $7.75M and I don't think Drew and his agent Boras are looking for any "long" term deal making about that same amount of money as Drew made this year...Last edited by STLTiger69; 11-28-2012 at 12:04 PM.
“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-28-2012, 12:04 PM #270
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Earlier this offseason I thought Drew might get something like 3/$27M. But now that Escobar, Peralta, and Lowrie are all potentially available via trade, I see that hurting Drew's chances at that much money. He might go for the best 1 year deal to try to rebuild value and hit the market again. Or I think he could get a 2-3 year deal at around $7-8M per year.
Escobar remains the best value out there at 2/$10M plus the club options, and he's the best all around player of the bunch too (though not by much). It doesn't sound like he would cost much to acquire.Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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11-28-2012, 12:06 PM #271
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11-28-2012, 12:12 PM #272
Oakland actually usually tries to aquire/keep guys that have trade value at their current deals - see Brandon McCarthy and Frank Thomas. The fact that they didn't pick up Drew's option for an extra $9 mil tells me they didn't think they could move him for that.Oakland lets a lot of players go via trade and as free agent because of money, so the fact that Oakland didn't pick up Drew's option doesn't tell me a lot.
Jhonny Peralta's "deal" with the Tigers was 2011 for $5.25M, 2012 for $5M and a team option of $6M for 2013 without a buyout.
By similar to Peralta's deal, they were meaning 1 year around $6 mil.
They can look all they want, but he just isn't likely to get much more than what he got this year on a 2-3 year deal. His injuries and play have shown that. He likely won't get more than he got this year on a 1 year deal. Either way though, for the slight upgrade in cost over Peralta, + what Peralta could get/help get in trade, IMO Drew is enough of an upgrade defensively and on the base paths and likely similar offensively to offset the injury risk and make the moves.I don't think Drew is going to go for that "similar" deal Peralta got at all. Just last year Drew made $7.75M and I don't think Drew and his agent Boras are looking for any "long" term deal making about that same amount of money as Drew made this year...Micah 7:7
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11-28-2012, 12:37 PM #273
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Or perhaps they just like Cliff Pennington better and didn't want the headache of dealing with trying to trade Drew.
no, I don't think Drew would sign for a team option one year $6m dollar deal either...
On this you'd be suprised that I totally agree with you. But that's the whole problem, Why would Drew contract himself for a lower amount than he wants for several years when Drew can sign a one year deal for the highest bidder and then go on to have a great season for 2013 and then try and get the deal he really wanted as a free agent next season?
This whole thing screams Adrian Beltre 2009 all over again. Beltre was coming off some injury questions form the 2009 season and a contract which paid $13.4M for 2009. Beltre went to free agency and couldn't find anything he wanted. So, Beltre took a 1 year deal with Boston for $9M for the 2010 season. And at the conclusion of the 2010 season he promply left the Red Sox's for the Rangers that paid him an average of $16M per year (5 years/$80M total).
Beltre didn't say, "Gosh darn it, the market isn't going to pay me my $15M for 2010, I guess I'll just sign with the Red Sox for 3 years for $27M." He took a $9M for 1 year and then $29M from the Rangers ($14M for 2011 and $15M for 2012) for the next two years for a total of $38M instead of taking a lower contract for longer term in 2010 (say $27M?). Also of interest, the sports agent that came up with this for Beltre was Scott Boras, the same agent who's representing Stephen Drew right now...“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-28-2012, 01:02 PM #274
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11-29-2012, 12:12 PM #275
I am becoming resigned to the idea of three years of Stephen Drew.
Boesch Drawing Interest; Tigers Like Drew: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
The Tigers are interested in free agent shortstop Stephen Drew on a short-term deal, Morosi reports (on Twitter). If the Tigers acquire Drew, they'd be positioned to trade Jhonny Peralta to a team such as the Diamondbacks. Jon Heyman reported eight days ago that the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees are interested in Drew.
Read more at Boesch Drawing Interest; Tigers Like Drew: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.comBut tonight, I say we must move forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!
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11-29-2012, 12:59 PM #276
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11-29-2012, 01:21 PM #277
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In fairness it's a very minor detail and your free to differ with me but if the A's would have taken Drew's $10M 2013 option, then the A's would have had to find a taker for Drew. If the A's had to pay part (even just $2-$3M) of Drew's $10M salary AND trade offer was for a not very appealing prospect, the A's would not be making up much ground over just paying $1M to have Drew go away by declining his option. In fact, had the A's taken Drew's option and not found a trade to their liking, they may have even been stuck with Drew and his $10M for the season. So to me the A's just made Drew and that 2013 problem go away as they had Pennington ready to take Drew's spot anyway.
Again, it's a minor point and my call is related to the tradability of Drew and the realization that the A's run the risk of actually losing much more money if the decided to take Drew's 2013 option vs. decline the option for $1M and move on.
I guess it just depends on how easy you feel trading 1 year of Stephen Drew at $10M while trying to get a decent prosepect in return without having to pay part of Drew's contract would be?!?“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-29-2012, 01:28 PM #278
If we could get Drew for anywhere from 1 yr $7-8 mil to 3yrs $21-24 mil and trade Peralta for Putz I'd be very happy. Another veteran arm in the back of the Pen in case Rondon is ready and a SS who has more range, is a better base runner, and likely similar bat, albeit a bigger injury risk, to hopefully give a couple years for prospects to develop.
Micah 7:7
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11-29-2012, 01:34 PM #279
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“Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.” -Will Rogers
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11-29-2012, 02:11 PM #280
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