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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sven Draconian View Post
    Right, Drew had a down season last year. However, he really only had "down" first half of his season (.290 OBP and an OPS+ of 60) with Arizona. When he went to Oakland he posted a .326 OBP and 97 OPS+). When taken in conjunction with his 2011 line (.317 OBP, 93 OPS+). You can interpret Drew's season a few different ways. You can make an excuse for him (he snapped his ankle and it took time to get back) or you can view the season in the context of he had a poor 40 game stretch without having the benefit of 120 games to cover it up to level out his stats. (IE, a large enough sample size).
    Drew, one can argue is also a player in decline well before he got injured and has managed to continue to decline after the injury. Look, Drew was having a down year BEFORE he fractured his ankle. It's not like he was a .300 hitter before he broke it in 2011, he was hitting .252 BA .317 OBP .396 SLG .713 OPS in 2011 and he hit .223 BA .309 OBP .348 SLG .657 OPS for a combined 2012 after his return.


    Quote Originally Posted by Sven Draconian View Post
    In fact, if you were to cut down Peralta's season down to July and onward his OBP drops to .280 and his OPS+ drops into the 70 range (you know, worse than Stephen Drew).

    So to me, Peralta having a down year playing 150 games is significantly more worrying than Drew having a down year only playing 80. Peralta had a much larger sample size to make his numbers reflect his skills.
    Yea, I noticed too that when I drop out a single most productive month of a player's yearly stats (For June 2012, Peralta only hit .299 BA .347 OBP .425 SLG .773 OPS), any other player (including Drew) would look much better when compared to Peralta. Run those same numbers and take out Drew's most impressive month for 2012 (Sept/Oct .263 BA .331 OBP .421 SLG .752 OPS) and see how they line up to you....

    As a matter of fact, you might find this interesting too, Drew's best month in the last two years was April/March of 2011 (at the beginning of the season). Interestingly, look where his season was going BEFORE he fractured his ankle....

    Drew's 2011 montly splits.

    Split G GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+
    April/March 22 21 81 15 26 7 2 2 22 1 2 9 15 .321 .389 .531 .920 .375 157
    May 24 24 87 14 21 5 0 1 7 3 1 13 22 .241 .347 .333 .680 .313 94
    June 27 26 106 14 26 5 3 2 14 0 0 7 22 .245 .289 .406 .695 .289 94
    July 13 12 47 1 8 4 0 0 2 0 1 1 15 .170 .188 .255 .443 .250 24


    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 11/24/2012.

    To put it bluntly, Drew was hitting .170 BA and a .443 OPS for the month in July when he got injured in 2011. Small sample size, sure, but for overall, for the 2011 season, was Drew trending to the say, .850 OPS or closer to .650-.700 OPS to you for the year in your mind? Now remember, this is BEFORE HE WAS INJURED!!!!!
    Last edited by STLTiger69; 11-24-2012 at 11:32 PM.
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  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    This thread has convinced me that signing Drew would be a bad idea. He's just not that good, almost certainly not an upgrade(other than in the sense that he's not the devil we know) and he'll be more expensive. Plus we are talking about then dumping Peralta for practically nothing. No thank you.
    I am starting to think this way also. Part of it is timing, right now every team is thinking they are just an extra player to two away from making a run at the division title and it's pretty hard to pry a good shortstop away from a team that has one right now.

    The thing is for some teams, bitter reality may set in sooner than later once the season starts. The Rockies are saying they will not trade Troy Tulowitzki this off season but his contract price went from a reasonable $5.5M for 2011, $8.25M for 2012 then to $10M for 2013 then $16M for 2014 and $20M for 2015. At a certain point, the Rockies are not going to pay Tulowitzski his millions to play on a losing team with very little talent around him and fewer and fewer fans coming to the games. They will move him, maybe not now, maybe not during this 2013 season, but sometime soon, they will have too.

    Ditto the Texas Rangers. If Texas wins the division in 2013, good for them, their plan worked. However if they find themselves in 3rd place say 15 games behind the Angels and A's and young Jurickson Profar is knocking at the door near the trade deadline, the Rangers may be inclined to give away a bit of today for a larger slice of tomorrow by way of trading Elvis Andrus and promoting Profar. Even lesser teams like the Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs might be willing to deal a shortstop in 2013 if the year turns from hope to one of seriously losing a lot of games and no end in sight.

    Also keep in mind Dombrowski can also go and try and do a deal for a minor league prospect too (say a Austin Jackson of the infield variety) that may be a year or two away and see what happens. It may not work but it will cost less than trying to get a MLB star SS for sure.

    In short, I think Dombrowski just needs to wait for a better hand to start with. Other teams will be in different circumstances where a players contract or other needs arise that would make a SS available and Dombrowski needs to sort of keep working the phones and keeping his ear to the ground to make sure a opportunity is not missed.
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  3. #203
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    When it comes to middle IFs, I tend toward the 'bird in hand theory'. We know there is a finite probability that Peralta may push the boundaries of what we suppose his floor to be next season. But even shortstops you think you know something about tend to carry a lot of risk. So to risk the change at all I'd be more comfortable if the upside potential was at least more than it is with Drew.

    We remember the Tigers thought they had made a pretty safe move with Renteria - but not so much it turned out. I also recall very well that the Twins were so confident in their IF plans for 2011 that they let Hardy and Hudson go, only to have Nishioka (a supposedly sure thing/best fielder in Japan/etc) blow up in their face and Casilla stagnate - leading one of the previously best defensive teams in the league to fall into Runs Against Purgatory.

    Like STL69 - I would not mind seeing DD try and deal for a good infield prospect that we would hope could challenge Peralta for the job by the end of the season and then at least provide a reasonable insurance of a floor performance level for 2014 when Peralta is most likely gone - since if he plays well next year he will be expensive and if he doesn't we won't want him......
    Last edited by Gehringer_2; 11-25-2012 at 12:30 AM.
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  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gehringer_2 View Post
    since if he (Peralta) plays well next year he will be expensive and if he doesn't we won't want him......
    I was thinking on that too, if Drew does end up in Detroit on a 1 year pillow contract or if the Tigers default and go with Peralta, and for the sake of argument, lets assume the player the Tigers go with has a pretty good year for 2013. Which player would be eaiser to sign for a reasonable amount and for a limited time for the next 1-3 years, Drew or Peralta?

    My thinking would be Peralta but I'm open to other thoughts...
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    Also I'll throw this thought out their too. I'd be fine with Peralta for 2013 and even Worth for 2014 if it ment someone like Elvis Andrus or Troy Tulowitzki would be the Tigers shortstop from 2014/2015 and many years beyond instead of signing Drew for 4-6 years.
    Last edited by STLTiger69; 11-25-2012 at 01:25 AM.
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  6. #206
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    SS prospects are very valuable right now, it's not really a likely scenario to see the Tigers trading for a young cost controlled player who was ML ready. They'll have to improve from within, which is why I think Stephen Drew would be a good idea. He would buy the Tigers a few years to see if Suarez or others could be ready by the time Drews is finished.
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  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by cruzer1 View Post
    SS prospects are very valuable right now, it's not really a likely scenario to see the Tigers trading for a young cost controlled player who was ML ready. They'll have to improve from within, which is why I think Stephen Drew would be a good idea. He would buy the Tigers a few years to see if Suarez or others could be ready by the time Drews is finished.
    How much do you think the Astros want for Jed Lowrie? The Astros also have Jose Altuve to play 2B, and he's not likely to be traded either. They also have Carlos Correa who is ranked their #2 prospect who is also, you guessed it, a SS. If the Astros will not deal Lowrie or Altuve, what will it cost for Correa?!?

    Ditto Colorado. Not going to trade Troy Tulowitzki to my Tigers? Fine, their #2 prospect is Trevor Story who ironically is also a SS- what is his availablity?

    Anyone follow the Reds? They have a fine young SS named Zack Cozart and they are probably not going to trade him. Then the Reds also have #1 prospect Billy Hamilton as a SS, and beyond him is another SS DiDi Gregorius. I'd rather have Cozart or Hamilton, but my hunch is the price for Gregorius is a bit lower than the other two also.

    This is not a complete list, but you get an idea of what is available....
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  8. #208
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    We can slice the data 1,000 different ways. The fact of the matter is there is little difference between the offensive numbers of Drew and Peralta historically. It's a matter of which you think has more left for the future, how many years you would have to sign Drew for and what you can get for Peralta.
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  9. #209
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  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    How much do you think the Astros want for Jed Lowrie? The Astros also have Jose Altuve to play 2B, and he's not likely to be traded either. They also have Carlos Correa who is ranked their #2 prospect who is also, you guessed it, a SS. If the Astros will not deal Lowrie or Altuve, what will it cost for Correa?!?

    Ditto Colorado. Not going to trade Troy Tulowitzki to my Tigers? Fine, their #2 prospect is Trevor Story who ironically is also a SS- what is his availablity?

    Anyone follow the Reds? They have a fine young SS named Zack Cozart and they are probably not going to trade him. Then the Reds also have #1 prospect Billy Hamilton as a SS, and beyond him is another SS DiDi Gregorius. I'd rather have Cozart or Hamilton, but my hunch is the price for Gregorius is a bit lower than the other two also.

    This is not a complete list, but you get an idea of what is available....
    I do think Lowries is gettable. The Astros also have at least 2 other good 2B prospects, including Delino Deshields Jr. That's why some thought Altuve might be obtainable. Correia was just drafted though and can't be traded until about July and they aren't dealing him. He will come to the majors as a 3B most likely as well, as he is expected to grow out of SS.

    I'm a big fan of going after Gregorius, but fwiw Hamilton has been moved to CF.

    Story might be someone we could get for Porcello, but who knows.

  11. #211
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    If I was going to sign Drew, I'd want it to be an Adrian Beltre with the Red Sox type situation. One year to prove what you are and re-establish some value.

  12. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    If the Astros will not deal Lowrie or Altuve, what will it cost for Correa?!?

  13. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    If I was going to sign Drew, I'd want it to be an Adrian Beltre with the Red Sox type situation. One year to prove what you are and re-establish some value.
    Beltre is still good, and got a great contract. I'd want two years, in case Drew were to re-establish value, at least the Tigers could be rewarded with compensation.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cruzer1 View Post
    Beltre is still good, and got a great contract. I'd want two years, in case Drew were to re-establish value, at least the Tigers could be rewarded with compensation.
    It wasn't about what Beltre is. Just a scenario. Beltre is probably my favorite player outside of the Tigers. I wanted him over Vmart

  15. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    If the Astros will not deal Lowrie or Altuve, what will it cost for Correa?!?
    Come on. Really?

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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    Come on. Really?
    Really...

    Correa's only a 18 years old, 6 foot 4 inches tall and 190lbs...(He's 18 and he's Miguel Cabrera height, your protypical SS right?).. Here's what MLB prospects watch said;

    "Correa may have been a bit of a surprise as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 Draft, but the pick allowed the Astros to be very creative later in the Draft and many scouts across baseball felt Correa was one of the most talented players in the class. The product of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy is an outstanding defensive shortstop, with above-average tools across the board – range, arm and actions. There’s no question he’ll be a shortstop at the highest level. But he’s far from all glove. Correa has the potential to be an above-average hitter with power. While not a burner, he’s a very good baserunner who is better underway. His makeup and work ethic is another reason the Astros felt comfortable making him the top pick. Correa signed very quickly and got a good amount of invaluable experience in the Gulf Coast League during his summer debut."


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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    I do think Lowries is gettable. The Astros also have at least 2 other good 2B prospects, including Delino Deshields Jr. That's why some thought Altuve might be obtainable. Correia was just drafted though and can't be traded until about July and they aren't dealing him. He will come to the majors as a 3B most likely as well, as he is expected to grow out of SS.

    I'm a big fan of going after Gregorius, but fwiw Hamilton has been moved to CF.

    Story might be someone we could get for Porcello, but who knows.
    +1

    My point here is that the Tigers have several options to fill a SS void here in the next few years and Stephen Drew is certainly one option to do that. There are however several other ways to address the problem too and I don't think Drew is the best option for the Tigers to take right now...
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    Really...

    Correa's only a 18 years old, 6 foot 4 inches tall and 190lbs...(He's 18 and he's Miguel Cabrera height, your protypical SS right?).. Here's what MLB prospects watch said;

    "Correa may have been a bit of a surprise as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 Draft, but the pick allowed the Astros to be very creative later in the Draft and many scouts across baseball felt Correa was one of the most talented players in the class. The product of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy is an outstanding defensive shortstop, with above-average tools across the board – range, arm and actions. There’s no question he’ll be a shortstop at the highest level. But he’s far from all glove. Correa has the potential to be an above-average hitter with power. While not a burner, he’s a very good baserunner who is better underway. His makeup and work ethic is another reason the Astros felt comfortable making him the top pick. Correa signed very quickly and got a good amount of invaluable experience in the Gulf Coast League during his summer debut."


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  19. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    Really...

    Correa's only a 18 years old, 6 foot 4 inches tall and 190lbs...(He's 18 and he's Miguel Cabrera height, your protypical SS right?).. Here's what MLB prospects watch said;

    "Correa may have been a bit of a surprise as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 Draft, but the pick allowed the Astros to be very creative later in the Draft and many scouts across baseball felt Correa was one of the most talented players in the class. The product of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy is an outstanding defensive shortstop, with above-average tools across the board – range, arm and actions. There’s no question he’ll be a shortstop at the highest level. But he’s far from all glove. Correa has the potential to be an above-average hitter with power. While not a burner, he’s a very good baserunner who is better underway. His makeup and work ethic is another reason the Astros felt comfortable making him the top pick. Correa signed very quickly and got a good amount of invaluable experience in the Gulf Coast League during his summer debut."


    2012 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: Prospects
    You don't need to give me the scouting report on him. I'm well aware of who he is. Not only can you not trade someone who was drafted in 2012 yet, but why in the world would Houston trade the number one pick after taking him 6 months ago anyway? That's preposterous.

  20. #220
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    It's going to be Stephen and J.D. Drew.
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  21. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    You don't need to give me the scouting report on him. I'm well aware of who he is. Not only can you not trade someone who was drafted in 2012 yet, but why in the world would Houston trade the number one pick after taking him 6 months ago anyway? That's preposterous.
    First of all, Peralta will be (for now at least) the tigers SS through the 2013 season. Which means the Tigers will realistically not need a SS until the start of the 2014 season. At worst, I could deal with Worth for 1/2 a season or even a full season for 2014 if a really great SS was going to be taking over for the next 4-6 seasons. Like I've been saying all along, more SS options open up the longer a GM is willing to wait (teams fall out of contention, teams payrolls explode, young cheap prospects are threatening the jobs of established MLB starters...ect...)

    Secondly, I'm sure your aware that teams actually DO trade prosepects for other more proven major league players when it is in the best interest of the ML team. Just look at the Tigers #1 draft picks that are still with the Tigers?

    2010 Nick Castellanos
    2009 Jacob Turner
    2008 Ryan Perry
    2007 Rick Porcello
    2006 Andrew Miller
    2005 Cameron Maybin

    I agree that some teams will be more willing to deal a prospect than others but some teams will certainly be willing to talk trade with the Tigers.

    A prospect is exactly that, a roll of the dice. If you don't like the pricetag of a player like Troy Tulowitzki or Elvis Andrus, you have to be willing to have a plan B in place. Sifting through other teams that may have a position blocked SS prospect is not as "preposterous" as you may think...
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    I don't think Peralta is our SS for next year. When you had Inge's range, Peralta's lack of range was minimized. With the lack of range for Cabby, Peralt's lack of range is even worse. The Tigers will take less offense to get better range at SS. It's as much about protecting Cabby as anything else. I look for a possible deal for Drew or Escobar of Miami. Escobar would be perfect if he didn't have such a sucky clubhouse personality.
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  23. #223
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    Smh
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  24. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelton View Post
    Smh
    lol,

    your thoughts?
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    Really...

    Correa's only a 18 years old, 6 foot 4 inches tall and 190lbs...(He's 18 and he's Miguel Cabrera height, your protypical SS right?)..
    Not sure which way this is meant, but would note just for the record that Cal Ripken and ARod played some pretty decent SS at 6'-3", 6'-4" and about 200.
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLTiger69 View Post
    lol,

    your thoughts?
    Look, teams that are doing massive rebuilds don't trade guys they took #1 overall that soon after dealing them. Its not worth discussing, its not possible, its just absurd. Sorry to be a dick about it, but I'm just trying to convey what everyone else is hinting at. They might deal you someone else because they have Correia, but he is not an option to be dealt, not to us anyways. The Tigers dealt their first rounders because they were a contender trying to win short term. Its not the same.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    Look, teams that are doing massive rebuilds don't trade guys they took #1 overall that soon after dealing them. Its not worth discussing, its not possible, its just absurd. Sorry to be a dick about it, but I'm just trying to convey what everyone else is hinting at. They might deal you someone else because they have Correia, but he is not an option to be dealt, not to us anyways. The Tigers dealt their first rounders because they were a contender trying to win short term. Its not the same.
    It's cool, the larger point I'm trying to make is that the Tigers do have at least one more year of Peralta before SS could be a problem and there are other ways to address it without using the name "Drew" and "Tigers sign" in a sentence. I've mentioned repeatedly that other MLB SS may be made available in the near future (Andrus and Tulowitzki for instance) and I've mentioned looking at other teams who have SS prospects available to try and aquire in a trade tp add a minor league SS prosepect to the Tigers organization that might actually work out.

    Apparently there is a large difference of opinion as to what prospects might be available and under what conditions they may be traded. I regret that we have a difference of opinion on this but it is the nature of the forum that we have such disagreements. No harm, no foul. My point is that the Tigers can try and secure a SS that is already a ML player via Jed Lowrie or perhaps others will become available later during the 2013 season as it plays out. The Tigers can also do some due dilligence and try and obtain a minor league prospect (and not just only Correia..their are other SS prospects on other teams like I mentioned previously too) that may be good at SS a few years down the road. We are all free to disagree about how fruitful such an endevor might be.

    I don't think that Drew is the answer and I believe that he would be a marginal upgrade at best and there are better shortstops that may be available now and more that will be available later this season and even some more shortstops will be made available in the off season leading into the 2014 season. The other shortstops might cost more than Drew in terms of prospects and contract amount, but frankly they would be vast improvements over both Peralta AND Drew and I believe that this is the better course of action than to sign Drew and "live with it" for the forseeable future.

    As always, everyone is free to agree or disagree with my statements and I try and not take it too personally!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    This thread has convinced me that signing Drew would be a bad idea. He's just not that good, almost certainly not an upgrade(other than in the sense that he's not the devil we know) and he'll be more expensive. Plus we are talking about then dumping Peralta for practically nothing. No thank you.
    But this is all speculation. We don't know what Drew will cost, ultimately. Nor do we know what we can get in return for Peralta. If Drew costs less than speculated, and Peralta fetches more, perhaps its a good move. We'll see.
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  29. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    I don't like watching Peralta play offensively or defensively. Given his poor approach at the plate, I sense he'll be the type of player who doesn't last long into his thirties.
    This is as good a summary of the anti-Peralta position that I've seen. He has a good approach in the field but mediocre skills, and a poor approach at the plate but the potential for plus power during those stretches where he makes a point of elevating the ball.

    Peralta is an enigma, but overall a fairly mediocre player, except for 2011 where he looked like a star in his prime on paper. In 2013, I don't expect thim to be any worse than he was in 2012 (which was mediocre at best overall), and of course if he starts to elevate the ball again, there's a chance he could be markedly better at the plate, esp. power-wise.

    That having been said, this lineup has been improved for 2013 by VMart vs. Delmon, Torii vs. Boesch, Infante vs. Raburn, but there are still big question marks:

    - Austin - 850 hitter or 750? (still high k's in 2012)
    - Torii - ageless hitter or hit a wall? (high k's)
    - Fielder - due for a down year vs. LHP? (high k's)
    - VMart - can he come back? (tough out)
    - Dirks - 800 hitter or what? (tough out in 2012)
    - Infante - 725 hitter or 650 hitter? (so-so approach)
    - Avila - 725 OPS again or bounce-back? (decent BB rate, but looked bad a lot)
    - Peralta (poor approach)

    The biggest problem I see is that Cabrera and VMart are the only ones who are established "tough outs" in the lineup. Dirks and Avila have shown some of these skills, but Dirks is relatively untested and Avila looked really bad in a lot of at-bats in 2012.

    Needless to say, Peralta is not a tough out. I would prefer to see a guy at the SS position who can (a) field well and (b) provide consistently tough at-bats, Placido Polanco style (I think this is the main reason why a lot of fans pine for PP, he was a tough out). Battling at-bats is a commodity that is currently still lacking from the mix, improved though it is, and another battler would help this lineup, particularly through the tough stretches and in the post-season.
    Last edited by sabretooth; 11-26-2012 at 06:48 PM.
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  30. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabretooth View Post
    This is as good a summary of the anti-Peralta position that I've seen. He has a good approach in the field but mediocre skills, and a poor approach at the plate but the potential for plus power during those stretches where he makes a point of elevating the ball.

    Peralta is an enigma, but overall a fairly mediocre player, except for 2011 where he looked like a star in his prime on paper. In 2013, I don't expect thim to be any worse than he was in 2012 (which was mediocre at best overall), and of course if he starts to elevate the ball again, there's a chance he could be markedly better at the plate, esp. power-wise.

    That having been said, this lineup has been improved for 2013 by VMart vs. Delmon, Torii vs. Boesch, Infante vs. Raburn, but there are still big question marks:

    - Austin - 850 hitter or 750? (still high k's in 2012)
    - Torii - ageless hitter or hit a wall? (high k's)
    - Fielder - due for a down year vs. LHP? (high k's)
    - VMart - can he come back? (tough out)
    - Dirks - 800 hitter or what? (tough out in 2012)
    - Infante - 725 hitter or 650 hitter? (so-so approach)
    - Avila - 725 OPS again or bounce-back? (decent BB rate, but looked bad a lot)
    - Peralta (poor approach)

    The biggest problem I see is that VMart is the only one who is an established "tough out" in the lineup. Dirks and Avila have shown some of these skills, but Dirks is relatively untested and Avila looked really bad in a lot of at-bats in 2012.

    Needless to say, Peralta is not a tough out. I would prefer to see a guy at the SS position who can (a) field well and (b) provide consistently tough at-bats, Placido Polanco style (I think this is the main reason why a lot of fans pine for PP, he was a tough out). Battling at-bats is a commodity that is currently missing from the mix, improved though it is, and another battler would help this lineup, particularly through the tough stretches and in the post-season.
    You forgot Cabrera. I don't know if this was on purpose, though.

  31. #231
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    Bowden called Drew the most undervalued FA on the market and sees Detroit, Boston, Oakland and Pitt as the best fits for him. If this is true, unless Boston gets aggressive, I feel pretty like we can get him on a reasonable deal, say 2/20.

    The only question for Drew is staying healthy. He's a defensive upgrade over Peralta and based on his numbers with Oakland, I feel like he's got a good chance to be a solid offensive contributor. In fact, I'd be willing to bet he puts up better offensive numbers than Peralta next year.

    A 2 year deal would be ideal, as the closest thing the Tigers have to a prospect at SS is Suarez and he's at least 2 years away.

    And maybe Peralta fetches us a decent prospect or a BP arm. If it all works out, it could be a nice, cost efficient way to upgrade the team while it's in position to compete for the World Series.

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  32. #232
    Sven Draconian is offline MotownSports Fan
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabretooth View Post
    This is as good a summary of the anti-Peralta position that I've seen. He has a good approach in the field but mediocre skills, and a poor approach at the plate but the potential for plus power during those stretches where he makes a point of elevating the ball.

    Peralta is an enigma, but overall a fairly mediocre player, except for 2011 where he looked like a star in his prime on paper. In 2013, I don't expect thim to be any worse than he was in 2012 (which was mediocre at best overall), and of course if he starts to elevate the ball again, there's a chance he could be markedly better at the plate, esp. power-wise.

    That having been said, this lineup has been improved for 2013 by VMart vs. Delmon, Torii vs. Boesch, Infante vs. Raburn, but there are still big question marks:

    - Austin - 850 hitter or 750? (still high k's in 2012)
    - Torii - ageless hitter or hit a wall? (high k's)
    - Fielder - due for a down year vs. LHP? (high k's)
    - VMart - can he come back? (tough out)
    - Dirks - 800 hitter or what? (tough out in 2012)
    - Infante - 725 hitter or 650 hitter? (so-so approach)
    - Avila - 725 OPS again or bounce-back? (decent BB rate, but looked bad a lot)
    - Peralta (poor approach)

    The biggest problem I see is that VMart is the only one who is an established "tough out" in the lineup. Dirks and Avila have shown some of these skills, but Dirks is relatively untested and Avila looked really bad in a lot of at-bats in 2012.

    Needless to say, Peralta is not a tough out. I would prefer to see a guy at the SS position who can (a) field well and (b) provide consistently tough at-bats, Placido Polanco style (I think this is the main reason why a lot of fans pine for PP, he was a tough out). Battling at-bats is a commodity that is currently missing from the mix, improved though it is, and another battler would help this lineup, particularly through the tough stretches and in the post-season.

    I would expect Peralta to put up similar offensive numbers as last year (he might even have a little bounce back). It's a complete defensive collapse that concerns me the most. He already has a weak arm and poor range. A little deterioration to either skill can put him over the edge. He's a poor athlete (based on the requirements of his position). At age 31 it is very easy to see a sprained ankle/wrist, sore shoulder etc... that doesn't quite heal and he's a complete liability in the field.

    Drew is 30, but he's a significantly better athlete. He can survive a little regression athletically. Peralta is a lost half-step away from being strictly a 3rd baseman.

  33. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    You forgot Cabrera. I don't know if this was on purpose, though.
    Ha...yes....I excluded him from my "questions" list but should have included him with VMart on the tough out list.
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    Quote Originally Posted by irvink View Post
    Bowden called Drew the most undervalued FA on the market and sees Detroit, Boston, Oakland and Pitt as the best fits for him. If this is true, unless Boston gets aggressive, I feel pretty like we can get him on a reasonable deal, say 2/20.


    A 2 year deal would be ideal, as the closest thing the Tigers have to a prospect at SS is Suarez and he's at least 2 years away.


    Five undervalued free agents - The GM's Office by Jim Bowden Blog - ESPN
    The contract doesn't make sense to me. Why would we offer 2 years and 20 million to a guy that Oakland had a chance to retain for one year 10 million. If that was Drew's market value I don't see why Oakland would let him walk and try to fetch something in return for basicilly a one year contract.

    Based on the interested teams, I doubt the Drew camp is mulling over multi-year offers at this point. Boston is looking for a stop gap type and Oakland would only be willing to sign him for less than the one year option they declined. Boras advised Edwin Jackson to take a one year contract as opposed to a three year deal to rebuild his value. I doubt that Boras is thinking he can get market value this year for his client based on the previous couple of seasons and uncertanties from the injuries. My only problem is that Boras is likely to try and get us to take a package deal with Soriano, to save face from a major misjudgement in the market, as it looks like he will have to take less from the Yankees than the option they declined.

  35. #235
    benrush is offline MotownSports Fan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sven Draconian View Post
    I would expect Peralta to put up similar offensive numbers as last year (he might even have a little bounce back). It's a complete defensive collapse that concerns me the most. He already has a weak arm and poor range. A little deterioration to either skill can put him over the edge. He's a poor athlete (based on the requirements of his position). At age 31 it is very easy to see a sprained ankle/wrist, sore shoulder etc... that doesn't quite heal and he's a complete liability in the field.

    Drew is 30, but he's a significantly better athlete. He can survive a little regression athletically. Peralta is a lost half-step away from being strictly a 3rd baseman.
    Peralta at this point is a quality third base option for a lot of teams this year. Youklis has had almost a dozen teams interested and the free agent market consits of Reynolds, who is horrible deffensively, Keppinger, who is hurt and Chavez, who is 35. For one year 6 million Peralta is a cheap option.

  36. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrush View Post
    The contract doesn't make sense to me. Why would we offer 2 years and 20 million to a guy that Oakland had a chance to retain for one year 10 million. If that was Drew's market value I don't see why Oakland would let him walk and try to fetch something in return for basicilly a one year contract.
    This is a good point. Oakland is pretty shrewd about collecting assets and maximizing value. I think they would have traded Drew on that 1/10 deal if he was worth that or more. They not only didn't pick up his option, but they gave that same money to Chris Young, an OF, a position where they have a surplus as opposed to SS, a position of need for them.

  37. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabretooth View Post
    Ha...yes....I excluded him from my "questions" list but should have included him with VMart on the tough out list.
    I figured there was a reason. Although you essentially included every other player, so I was a bit confused. And yeah, I'd say Cabrera is a tough out. I actually disagree with you about Fielder. While there may not be tangible data for this, I'd guess that he does better in his second time through the American League. In addition, I expect his BB% to go back up towards 15% (had 65 walks in the last 4 months, only 20 in the first two).

    There are also a couple other things as far as batted balls and other rumblings go: Prince hit 25.4% line drives, when he'd never been over 19.8%. I'd guess that those ~5% of LD will go back towards fly balls hit, where Prince was at 33.3% (39.5% for his career). He hits HR at about a 20% clip on fly balls, so that will obviously increase his power numbers. Lastly, I don't think that Prince's K% will go up: his SWSTR% is at 8.3 (career 9.9%).

    All in all, I wouldn't be surprised to see Prince's numbers around the Bill James projection: .299/.413/.548 with room for even more.
    Last edited by alwaysthrowheat; 11-27-2012 at 03:50 AM.

  38. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrush View Post
    The contract doesn't make sense to me. Why would we offer 2 years and 20 million to a guy that Oakland had a chance to retain for one year 10 million. If that was Drew's market value I don't see why Oakland would let him walk and try to fetch something in return for basicilly a one year contract.

    Based on the interested teams, I doubt the Drew camp is mulling over multi-year offers at this point. Boston is looking for a stop gap type and Oakland would only be willing to sign him for less than the one year option they declined. Boras advised Edwin Jackson to take a one year contract as opposed to a three year deal to rebuild his value. I doubt that Boras is thinking he can get market value this year for his client based on the previous couple of seasons and uncertanties from the injuries. My only problem is that Boras is likely to try and get us to take a package deal with Soriano, to save face from a major misjudgement in the market, as it looks like he will have to take less from the Yankees than the option they declined.
    First, I will say that teams can misread the market on a player, so Oakland walking away from 1/$10M for Drew isn't that telling. Besides, on face value, 1/$10M is way too much for Drew based on the last two partial seasons. Drew's value is all tied up in projection, and weighs heavily on one's opinion regarding his health and if he can bounce back to something near pre-2011.

    Secondly, there's no such thing as a packaged deal. I'm sure Boras is trying to sell us on both players, but Boras doesn't make the decision that he can accept less for one player to get more for another player. The player makes the call on what they will sign for, not Boras.

    The market for closers has really changed over the last few years. I certainly wouldn't have overplayed my hand if I was Soriano. It looks to me like he could get squeezed again this offseason.
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  39. #239
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    I haven't discussed Yunel Escobar really, because I find it highly doubtful that the Tigers would be interested in him. I think the Tigers are willing to deal with their own personnel problems as they arise, but avoid taking on external problems. Anyway, that's my opinion.

    But as far as Escobar, I think he effects the market for Drew, given that is is pretty widely accepted that he is available for trade. Escobar is signed for 2/$10M with two more club options at $5M each after that. That's a team friendly contract, not lengthy, and you have the club options for more if you want him around longer. He's been consistently an above average SS defensively. And he's roughly average offensively, though up and down years. Age-wise, he's sandwiched right between Peralta and Drew -- at four months older than Drew and six months younger than Peralta.

    The point is, Drew is potentially competing against Escobar at 2/$10 and Peralta at 1/$6 in the market -- two similar players. That probably does affect his next contract.

    I actually like Escobar slightly better than Drew or Peralta, and his contract is very reasonable. Though, I doubt the Tigers are interested.
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  40. #240
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    In talking about Oakland's needs, Duquette on XM suggested that they may be able to resign Drew for 1 year at around $6 mil. Don't think that is likely, but if he could be had for 2-3 years for close to $6-8 mil per, for me it is close to a no-brainer decision for me.
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