2013 Detroit Tigers Closer

[Sports_Freak]

I would really like to see Al-Al given a chance to win the job in spring training. I think that they will probably announce an open competition between people already in the organization and a couple of free agent veterans with closing experience. Beyond elite level closers - who are paid way too much money - it seems like it's a yearly crap shoot.

What happens down in Lakeland is pointless. Raburn was hitting the leather off the ball down there in 2012. You can't go into a season by counting on a closer who has 4 good weeks of exhibition games. Disaster waiting to happen.

Closer by committee. Dotel, AA to face RH hitters, Coke to face LH hitters.

After all, it's the hardest 3 outs of a game.

[junkballer]

Given our defense, well... It seems like our ideal relief pitcher is someone with a high K rate, a high FB rate - thought I'm not sure how stable reliever's numbers are, year to year - and good control. I am totally cool with closer by committee until someone proves themselves worthy.

[Shelton]

I'll take the guy with the lowest walk rate.

[STLTiger69]

I'll take the guy with the lowest walk rate.

lol, I'll take the guy that can get three outs by facing 4 hitters or less....

[Euphdude]

I'll take the guy with the lowest walk rate.

As nice as that would be, DD's mantra for a closer is typically high K, which usually comes with high walk rates. It is actually interesting that many high K pitchers also have poor control.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Eh, very small sample size. Who's to say someone else wouldn't appear as reliable as Coke with more innings? Who's to say that Coke wouldn't continue to falter like he finally did by the end of the series? If you want to talk about the reliability of the pen going forward, let's talk about how it performed during the season - and throw most of that out, as well. The bullpen varies so widely from year to year and it's such a big part of the game now. I can't imagine trying to make sense of it. Starting pitching? Get stud pitchers. Relief pitching? Pray.

All of the following rankings are AL only:

The Tigers pen ranked 10th in ERA, with the second highest (13th) OPS, and 3rd highest (12th) WHIP. It's not like they were good the entire year.

They ranked 11th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 2nd highest WHIP (13th) last year.

They ranked 8th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 11th in WHIP in 2010.

Looks like building the bullpen is a perennial problem to me.

[ballmich]

All of the following rankings are AL only:

The Tigers pen ranked 10th in ERA, with the second highest (13th) OPS, and 3rd highest (12th) WHIP. It's not like they were good the entire year.

They ranked 11th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 2nd highest WHIP (13th) last year.

They ranked 8th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 11th in WHIP in 2010.

Looks like building the bullpen is a perennial problem to me.

It is a perrenial problem. But that is all together different from saying that Coke was the only reliable reliever during the play-offs.

As far as the bullpen, the Tigers did sign Valverde, Benoit, and Dotel, in three consecutive years. It has not been good, but not because the Tigers aren't throwing money at the problem, but appears to more of an issue that they aren't getting enough help from their system. That's my opinion.

[junkballer]

Looks like building the bullpen is a perennial problem to me.

How would you fix it? So many teams are able to put together functional bullpens on the cheap and so many teams get burned spending money on the bullpen... There has to be something that we're missing in terms of evaluating bullpen arms. Do we just bring in several middle of the road relievers that have a few years of experience and hope for the best or what?

My issue was just the way that you pointed out that Phil Coke was the only reliable reliever in the postseason. True as it may be, it was a pretty limited sample size. I'm a lot more comfortable with year to year numbers. How stable has the bullpen been in terms of makeup over the past three years? I am curious about that so I'm heading over to fangraphs. I just wonder if it's the performance of specific pitchers or if it's just general ineptitude.

[alwaysthrowheat]

It is a perrenial problem. But that is all together different from saying that Coke was the only reliable reliever during the play-offs.

I guess this was more of an opinion than fact. Maybe I should have qualified that statement. I didn't feel comfortable with any Tiger reliever coming into the game to shut down the opponent besides Coke and maybe Dotel. "Reliable" is subjective, and I should have specified that.

[Nastradamus]

The Tigers pen wasn't great last year, but at the same time I don't think we make major changes. We are kind of in position where we need to at least give Benoit and Coke a chance to show that they can revert to form a bit. Those 2 plus Valverde, who will be gone, were the biggest issues there. We are basically adding AA to the mix, as he was around only for a minimal time and Villareal was highly effective most of the year. Downs seems like a pretty good second lefty and he was around for only about half the year. Then you have the option of adding Rondon and/or Marte for some more depth. Also a few guys like Ortega,Schlereth and Ballester got absolutely shelled while here. I wouldn't mind adding one more lefty to the mix if we can find one who is really dominant against lefties. Shoot I wouldn't even hate paying for Burnett or Affeldt.

[junkballer]

Looking at the last three years worth of data, Benoit, Dotel, Coke, and Alburquerque have all been reasonably dependable. But yeah, it does seem like we need more help from our system. I think that there was some progress made by the others this year, but it's really hard to sustain that progress as a reliever. Guys like Downs and Below and Villereal really are just as likely to be worthless next year as guys like Marte and Putkonen and whoever else are to be lights out.

[STLTiger69]

All of the following rankings are AL only:

The Tigers pen ranked 10th in ERA, with the second highest (13th) OPS, and 3rd highest (12th) WHIP. It's not like they were good the entire year.

They ranked 11th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 2nd highest WHIP (13th) last year.

They ranked 8th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 11th in WHIP in 2010.

Looks like building the bullpen is a perennial problem to me.

First, to put this in perspective, the Tigers went to the World Series this year! This means 9 other teams with better ERA bullpens didn't even make it to the World Series this year.... but the Tigers still did....Bullpens are not everything that makes a team win.

Secondly, relief pitching is a funny thing. Let me bring two names to mind and see what you think alright? What are Jason Grilli and Fenrando Rodney worth to you right now? Because here's what they did with the Tigers and what they did with their team just last year...


Here's Jason Grilli's stats, his last two years with the Tigers and his two most recent years with Pittsburgh.

Year	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	GF	SV	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2007	DET	5	3	4.74	57	13	0	79.2	81	42	32	62	1.418	9.2	3.6	7.0	1.94
2008	DET	0	1	3.29	9	4	0	13.2	12	5	7	10	1.390	7.9	4.6	6.6	1.43
2011	PIT	2	1	2.48	28	4	1	32.2	24	9	15	37	1.194	6.6	4.1	10.2	2.47
2012	PIT	1	6	2.91	64	11	2	58.2	45	19	22	90	1.142	6.9	3.4	13.8	4.09

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

Come on, you want Jason Grilli back right? His WHIP went from 1.418 his last full season in Detroit to 1.142 with Pittsburgh, that Grilli is AWESOME! Check out Grilli's walks to strikeouts and strikeouts per 9 innings, heck, the Tigers need to be calling Pittsburgh to get Grilli back right?

What about or friend Rodney?

Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	SV	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	DET	AL	2	5	4.40	37	75.2	70	37	41	61	1.467	4.9	7.3	1.49
2012	TBR	AL	2	2	0.60	48	74.2	43	5	15	76	0.777	1.8	9.2	5.07

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.


Well, since his gig in Tampa Bay, he's lowered his ERA to .60 (that's not a typo) from his last season with the Tigers from a 4.40 ERA. Rodney's also lowered his walk rate by half and doubled his strike out ratio per nine innings. 2012 Rodney was a monster right? The Tigers should trade to get Rodney back right?


Did you see Rodney's 2011 numbers with the Angels?

Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2011	LAA	AL	3	5	4.50	39	3	32.0	26	16	28	26	1.688	7.9	7.3	0.93
2012	TBR	AL	2	2	0.60	76	48	74.2	43	5	15	76	0.777	1.8	9.2	5.07

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.


Ick right, Rodney was actually WORSE with the Angels than he was with Detroit, but amazing in Tampa..

My point here is, when your building a bullpen, sometimes what you think your getting from a player and what you actually get are two different things.



Lastly, I understand the complaints, but what is your fix for it? Trade Cabrera for a top notch bullpen? Sign Soriano for $15M per year for 4-6 years?

[ErieTigerFan]

Sign Soria. The guy is about as effective as they come, and he'll be better 'n' new with his Tommy John-resurrected arm.

[C03BRA]

I think Soria or Madsen either make sense for us....fairly cheap can probably do a 2 year deal. If they fail we have internal options.

I think Soriano will resign with the Yankees

[will the thrill]

I'm sticking with my pick of Porcello, it makes perfect sense

[Sports_Freak]

I think Soria or Madsen either make sense for us....fairly cheap can probably do a 2 year deal. If they fail we have internal options.

I think Soriano will resign with the Yankees

I don't think Soria will come cheap. I don't know much about Madsen but you just know if DD goes in with big money, JL will continue to use him, over and over, even if he struggles.

With closer by committee, if one of the pitchers is struggling, he could stop using him easier.

Remember when the Yankees put Dave Righetti in the BP as their closer? It was the season following his no-hitter. He went from throwing over 200 innings to under 100 innings. How crazy would it be if the Tigers did that with JV? I know they won't ever do it, not in this day and age. But it just shows how pitching has changed over the years.
Dave Righetti Baseball Stats by Baseball Almanac

Throwing money at it really isn't the answer, IMO. You just have to find guys who are going to be lights out. And trying to find them is a crapshoot. It would be the last place I would want the Tigers to spend big bucks on. It just seems they are the most unpredictable positions, closers or set-up men.

[froggyvk]

I'd like to see the Tigers take a look at Wade Davis. He absolutely has closer stuff out of the bullpen, and the Rays aren't sure what they're going to do with him yet. Their starting rotation is about 7 deep but they could trade a starter and move Davis back to the rotation. However, if he stays in the bullpen, by 2014 he'll be too expensive for the Rays, since they don't pay much to piece together their bullpen every year, but if were in a closing role and repeats his numbers from last season then his contract becomes a bargain ($2.8M in 2013, $4.8M in 2014 and team options from 2015-17). It's hard to put a price tag on him trade wise, since the Rays are a contending team that always operates cheaply. You won't be able to steal him away, since they probably value him still as a starter or back-end reliever and not a 7th inning reliever which was his role in 2012. I could actually see the Rays being interested in Boesch as a starting point, but it would take more than that.

[Nate7474]

The Tigers pen wasn't great last year, but at the same time I don't think we make major changes. We are kind of in position where we need to at least give Benoit and Coke a chance to show that they can revert to form a bit. Those 2 plus Valverde, who will be gone, were the biggest issues there. We are basically adding AA to the mix, as he was around only for a minimal time and Villareal was highly effective most of the year. Downs seems like a pretty good second lefty and he was around for only about half the year. Then you have the option of adding Rondon and/or Marte for some more depth. Also a few guys like Ortega,Schlereth and Ballester got absolutely shelled while here. I wouldn't mind adding one more lefty to the mix if we can find one who is really dominant against lefties. Shoot I wouldn't even hate paying for Burnett or Affeldt.

One more lefty? I wouldnt be surprised if you end up seeing Crosby or Oliver as that one more hard throwing lefty. You also still have Downs potentially who can be effective. I like the bullpen as is I wouldnt sign anyone for the bullpen other then spring invite to see if someone can add depth to AAA for callups.

[Yoda]

I'm sticking with my pick of Porcello, it makes perfect sense

A guy who gives up a ton of hits and doesn't strike many people out?

[PuNk42AE]

A guy who gives up a ton of hits and doesn't strike many people out?

It worked in 2012, wait umm uhh

[Nastradamus]

One more lefty? I wouldnt be surprised if you end up seeing Crosby or Oliver as that one more hard throwing lefty. You also still have Downs potentially who can be effective. I like the bullpen as is I wouldnt sign anyone for the bullpen other then spring invite to see if someone can add depth to AAA for callups.

Oliver is terrible anywhere and I want Crosby starting in the minors until he's ready to start here. Downs is interesting but the walks are high and he's got a pretty small sample size in the majors. We don't HAVE to have another lefty, but I wouldn't mind it at the same time if he's a high leverage type.

[Nastradamus]

A guy who gives up a ton of hits and doesn't strike many people out?

He's very good his first time through the lineup, doesn't walk a lot of guys, added some velocity this year and would probably K more out of the pen. I'm not saying I agree he should close, just throwing out a few pros to go with the cons.

[Nate7474]

Oliver is terrible anywhere and I want Crosby starting in the minors until he's ready to start here. Downs is interesting but the walks are high and he's got a pretty small sample size in the majors. We don't HAVE to have another lefty, but I wouldn't mind it at the same time if he's a high leverage type.

Oliver has the potential to be better then any situational lefty we've had here in a long time imo with his stuff. Crosby after we sign Sanchez will never crack the rotation in Detroit and could be dominant in the bullpen but I agree he needs to start but this is it for him as a starter and he will be moved to see if he can handle the bullpen before we lose him.

[MC24]

Oliver has the potential to be better then any situational lefty we've had here in a long time imo with his stuff. Crosby after we sign Sanchez will never crack the rotation in Detroit and could be dominant in the bullpen but I agree he needs to start but this is it for him as a starter and he will be moved to see if he can handle the bullpen before we lose him.

Andrew Oliver » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Look at this guys walk rates. He's garbage and should never see an MLB mound again.

[sabretooth]

All of the following rankings are AL only:

The Tigers pen ranked 10th in ERA, with the second highest (13th) OPS, and 3rd highest (12th) WHIP. It's not like they were good the entire year.

They ranked 11th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 2nd highest WHIP (13th) last year.

They ranked 8th in ERA, 7th in OPS against, and 11th in WHIP in 2010.

Looks like building the bullpen is a perennial problem to me.

Yes, absolutely -- I looked into this a month ago and was shocked to see that the ONLY year under DD that the Tigers' bullpen was in the top half of the league in ERA/WHIP/FIP and so on was 2006....otherwise the bullpen has had solidly below-average stats.

[will the thrill]

A guy who gives up a ton of hits and doesn't strike many people out?

First time through the lineup: .254 OBA, .651 OPS 1085 PA 167k's 1/6.5
2nd,3rd, 4th+ through the lineup: ..311 OBA .867 OPS 1902 PA 217K 1/8.8

OPS 200 points better, K rate 35% higher and a HR every 56 AB compared to every 30 after the first time through.

That's over his career, so the added MPH he should get from not worrying about having to throw 100 pitches, i wouldn't be surprised if he can get his k rate up to 8 per 9 innings working as a closer

[alwaysthrowheat]

First time through the lineup: .254 OBA, .651 OPS 1085 PA 167k's 1/6.5
2nd,3rd, 4th+ through the lineup: ..311 OBA .867 OPS 1902 PA 217K 1/8.8

OPS 200 points better, K rate 35% higher and a HR every 56 AB compared to every 30 after the first time through.

That's over his career, so the added MPH he should get from not worrying about having to throw 100 pitches, i wouldn't be surprised if he can get his k rate up to 8 per 9 innings working as a closer

How are you supposed to do that when you don't have an out pitch?

[alwaysthrowheat]

Andrew Oliver » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Look at this guys walk rates. He's garbage and should never see an MLB mound again.

Could be a good LOOGY, and I'm as bearish on him as anyone. Heck, Clay Rapada gets left handers out.

[Nate7474]

Andrew Oliver » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Look at this guys walk rates. He's garbage and should never see an MLB mound again.

I agree he should never see the MLB mound again as a starter. But come in to get a tough lefty out he could be very good you dont give up on a guy with his stuff, you find a role for them they can excel in

[Charles Liston]

My vote is for not having a closer. I don't mean a closer by commitee I mean not even thinking about it. Treat the ninth like the eighth.

Correct. There is no such thing as a 9th inning guy, unless you have Eckersley or Rivera, or a handful of other guys over the last 30 years. To define that role when you have no one to fill it is just stupid. That stubborn old coot Leyland actually looked like he finally understood that when he realized, belatedly, that he couldn't use Valverde any more. He then, finally, started to use a bullpen correctly - in a high leverage situation, use the best candidate, for multiple innings if necessary. If he's actually learned that, he has some pieces to work with - Dotel, Coke, Alburquerque, maybe Smyly.

There is no such thing as a "closer", it is a role that makes no sense for roster management unless you have an almost-unique individual. There is also no such thing as an 8th-inning guy, and please God there is no such thing as a LOOGY. Get a couple of more guys who can go 2 innings, plus someone who could do the Grilli innings, and then use them properly.

[junkballer]

First time through the lineup: .254 OBA, .651 OPS 1085 PA 167k's 1/6.5
2nd,3rd, 4th+ through the lineup: ..311 OBA .867 OPS 1902 PA 217K 1/8.8

As intriguing of an idea as it is, and I think it could work... I think that Rick is too valuable as a starting pitcher, even on a team with bad infield defense. I think that most starters could close, as they tend to be better pitchers than relievers to begin with... But Rick is not a failed starter by any stretch of the imagination. Guys like him that are still relatively cost controlled are very useful. He eats innings and is a better than average pitcher, and that makes him worth a lot of money.

[STLTiger69]

First time through the lineup: .254 OBA, .651 OPS 1085 PA 167k's 1/6.5
2nd,3rd, 4th+ through the lineup: ..311 OBA .867 OPS 1902 PA 217K 1/8.8

OPS 200 points better, K rate 35% higher and a HR every 56 AB compared to every 30 after the first time through.

That's over his career, so the added MPH he should get from not worrying about having to throw 100 pitches, i wouldn't be surprised if he can get his k rate up to 8 per 9 innings working as a closer

Rick Porcello's 1st, 2nd and 3rd innings of work for 2012.

Split	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st inning	31.0	20	5.81	144	131	22	39	13	22	1.69	.298	.361	.450	.811
2nd inning	30.0	6	1.80	119	116	9	31	2	15	7.50	.267	.280	.353	.633
3rd inning	30.0	14	4.20	133	122	16	33	8	19	2.38	.270	.331	.418	.749

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2012.

And if you want to compare Porcello's numbers to a potential closer, look at Al Alburquerque's career numbers...

I	Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	AB	R	H	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	8th inning	21	17.1	2	1.04	61	0	11	5	23	4.60	.180	.242	.180	.423
	9th inning	11	8.1	1	1.08	31	1	6	8	16	2.00	.194	.375	.194	.569
	Innings 7-9	44	41.1	9	1.96	146	5	23	27	61	2.26	.158	.297	.164	.462

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2012.

[tiger337]

Correct. There is no such thing as a 9th inning guy, unless you have Eckersley or Rivera, or a handful of other guys over the last 30 years. To define that role when you have no one to fill it is just stupid. That stubborn old coot Leyland actually looked like he finally understood that when he realized, belatedly, that he couldn't use Valverde any more. He then, finally, started to use a bullpen correctly - in a high leverage situation, use the best candidate, for multiple innings if necessary. If he's actually learned that, he has some pieces to work with - Dotel, Coke, Alburquerque, maybe Smyly.

There is no such thing as a "closer", it is a role that makes no sense for roster management unless you have an almost-unique individual. There is also no such thing as an 8th-inning guy, and please God there is no such thing as a LOOGY. Get a couple of more guys who can go 2 innings, plus someone who could do the Grilli innings, and then use them properly.

I agree that the closer role is silly, but I can't blame Leyland for using it the way he does. All 30 managers do the same thing. I wish Leyland would go really old school and get back to the 70s-style bullpen management.

[Eric Cioe]

As nice as that would be, DD's mantra for a closer is typically high K, which usually comes with high walk rates. It is actually interesting that many high K pitchers also have poor control.

I don't think DD's mantra is high K, though. I think it's high velocity. And while that tends to correlate with the K, it doesn't always, and DD seems to find the guys that throw hard that don't necessarily miss as many bats as they ought to.

[ballmich]

I'm pretty sure Oliver is out of options now. He will be an interesting case come the end of Spring Training.

[PuNk42AE]

According to Eddies sheet, Oliver has a 4th option that expires in 2013.

[ballmich]

According to Eddies sheet, Oliver has a 4th option that expires in 2013.

Oh interesting, I didn't realize that Edman was updating his options tracker again. I'll have to check it out, thanks.

[Seattle Mike]

Yes, absolutely -- I looked into this a month ago and was shocked to see that the ONLY year under DD that the Tigers' bullpen was in the top half of the league in ERA/WHIP/FIP and so on was 2006....otherwise the bullpen has had solidly below-average stats.

DD's bullpen track record has been consistently bad. I believe I have offered the grim numbers on here a couple of times. His track record for putting together a decent staff overall isn't much better, this year's starting staff notwithstanding.

Anyway, all this discussion and angst about the second least valuable man on a pitching staff. Other than middle relief in a blowout, is there an easier job than coming into a game with no one on base and getting three outs, especially if the margin to be preserved is 2-3 runs? With the way managers use the closer that's pretty much become the job description. And because of that, I don't think strikeouts are what is most important. If you can limit walks and HRs you can close. Todd Jones drove everyone crazy because there were always guys on base. But he saved most the games he was charged with saving because he rarely walked anyone and did not give up a lot of homers. That's why I think Porcello could close, under modern usage, just fine.

The irony with regard to bullpen usage today is that, if memory serves correctly, the number of leads lost in the late innings is about the same today as it was 40-50 years ago. Maybe someone can correct me on this, but I seem to recall reading some article, (perhaps on BP) that did the research and came to this conclusion.

[junkballer]

Other than middle relief in a blowout, is there an easier job than coming into a game with no one on base and getting three outs, especially if the margin to be preserved is 2-3 runs?

I agree with you - it doesn't seem like it takes a special pitcher to do it. I am curious to see a breakdown of the most common outcomes of one half of the ninth inning... I think that one of the reasons that Todd Jones was an effective closer was the fact that he just didn't seem to freak out about anything - it seemed to me that he understood the numbers and realized that as long as he didn't do anything stupid, he was likely to come out on top just by playing percentages. I prefer closers that get it done as quickly as possible, but there is a whole lot to be said for someone that doesn't crack under pressure and goes about his business the same way regardless of the situation.

[Nastradamus]

Oliver has the potential to be better then any situational lefty we've had here in a long time imo with his stuff. Crosby after we sign Sanchez will never crack the rotation in Detroit and could be dominant in the bullpen but I agree he needs to start but this is it for him as a starter and he will be moved to see if he can handle the bullpen before we lose him.

I'm fine with this approach, but I don't want to count on him as our lefty or a bullpen guy right away at this point I'm not enthused about Oliver in the pen. I don't trust him at all and just plain don't think he's good. Oliver in the pen equals Schlereth IMO. I'd much rather grab up a JP Howell type.