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Thread: 2012-13 Offseason Discussion
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10-29-2012, 12:09 AM #1
2012-13 Offseason Discussion
Well, now that that's over with, we can start talking about next year, which also looks promising for this club. We're losing zero major players, and yet we're jettisoning a lot of flotsam that held us down.
We won't be paying Valverde, Inge, Delmon or Raburn. That has to free up some payroll--some of which will be absorbed by arbitration raises. We desperately need a veteran RF that can hit.AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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10-29-2012, 12:12 AM #2
Also, hopefully, this thread will be a refuge from the threads involving irrational and sporadic panic attacks about how we have to fire Leyland, DD, or whoever. I think it's always fair game to discuss these things, but if your team wins the AL pennant, there's really nobody involved in its management that should "definitely" be fired.
AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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10-29-2012, 12:18 AM #3
MotownSports Fan
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I think the #1 priority has to be the bench. Raburn, Boesch, Santiago, etc. were a huge minus for the team this year. I'd like to see what Castellanos and Garcia are capable of in spring training. Maybe they could take over RF or a bench role.
If they bring back the same pitching staff minus Valverde, I will be happy. Who will the closer be? Who cares. Most overrated job in MLB.
I think we'll see most of the starting lineup and pitching staff back next year so the main additions will probably be role players who can play defence with some speed and make contact.
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10-29-2012, 12:19 AM #4
Trade Rick Porcello and Casey Crosby to COL for Josh Rutledge and Eddie Butler
Sign Torii Hunter (3 years/$30 MM; 12, 10, 8)
Re-sign Anibal Sanchez (2 years/$15 MM)
Re-sign Gerald Laird (1 year/$1 MM)
Re-sign Octavio Dotel (1 year/$3 MM)
2013 Opening Day Roster
Rotation:
Justin Verlander RHP
Max Scherzer RHP
Doug Fister RHP
Anibal Sanchez RHP
Drew Smyly LHP
Lineup:
Austin Jackson CF
Torri Hunter RF
Miguel Cabrera 3B
Prince Fielder 1B
Victor Martinez DH
Jhonny Peralta SS
Andy Dirks LF
Alex Avila C
Omar Infante 2B
Bullpen:
Bruce Rondon
Octavio Dotel
Joaquin Benoit
Brayan Villareal
Al Alburquerque
Duane Below
Phil Coke
Bench:
Danny Worth INF
Gerald Laird C
Quintin Berry OF
Avisail Garcia OF
2012 Opening Day Salary $132,994,000
Subtractions
Jose Valverde (-$9 MM)
Delmon Young (-$6.75 MM)
Collin Balestar (-$485K)
Clete Thomas (-$481K)
Daniel Schlereth (-$490K)
Brennan Boesch (-$502K)
Don Kelly (-$900K)
Ramon Santiago(-$2.1 MM)
Ryan Raburn (-$2.1 MM)
Rick Porcello (-$3.1 MM)
Brandon Inge (-$5.5 MM)
Total Subtracted: $29.308 MM
Additions
Anibal Sanchez (+$7.5 MM)
Torri Hunter (+$12 MM)
Added $19.5 MM
Add 500K for Jhonny Peralta
Arbitration raises (~$10 MM)
Add $10.5 MM
Total Added $30 MM
Net Change ($692K)
2013 Opening Day Salary $132,302,000 +/- $5 MM
Been working on this since about mid-September, many man changes and I'm sure a lot of people will disagree/find mistakes2012 AL Champs
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10-29-2012, 12:20 AM #5
Right now, my feelings on next season are worse than they were a few weeks ago.
A few weeks ago I was starting to believe we may not make the playoffs, but I looked forward to:
1) Vmart batting 5th
2) A possible outfield of Garcia, Jackson, and Dirks
3) A new SS
4) A solid 4 person rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, and Sanchez. Maybe even seeing Smyly hold onto the 5th all year.
Now, I still see Vmart batting 5th, but
1) Did Sanchez's post season price him out of Detroit?
2) The rotation pitched deep into the playoffs
3) Did Peralta fool the team into resigning him?VT
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10-29-2012, 12:25 AM #6
Well let's see, if we're talking about a magical ideal world where replacements are plentiful:
Trade Porcello please let it be for an outfielder that can get on base
Get rid of the following players:
Laird, Kelly, Santiago, Worth, Peralta, Young, Berry, Boesch, Valverde, Putkonen
Send Garcia back to the minors
Re-sign Sanchez
SP: Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez, Smyly
RP: Benoit, Dotel, Coke, Villareal, Alburquerque, competition between Downs/Below/Various other guys from this year + any cheap signings
C: Avila, Someone
1B: Fielder
2B: Infante
SS: Someone
3B: Cabrera
LF: Someone
CF: Jackson
RF: Someone
DH: Martinez
Not sold on Dirks as a regular, and you need cover for V-Mart not necessarily being healthy or effective. Acquire some decent depth on minor league deals.
Acquire a decent bench.
Realistically they probably have to bring back Peralta and count on Dirks to start in LF. Hopefully they can find a RF, a nice RP, and a good bench player or two.
Obviously this is also predicated on Leyland and Dombrowski being fired and replaced by hot shot young sabermetric minded management.
edit: Can't believe I forgot the amazing Al AlLast edited by pyrotigers; 10-29-2012 at 12:33 AM.
Kobernoooooous
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10-29-2012, 12:26 AM #7
My off-season thoughts:
I hope Dotel ends up sticking around. I don't know what kind of contract he is under, I have no idea, but I hope he sticks around.
I'm an admitted Leyland hater and that hasn't changed. I think the biggest reason his teams in Detroit have "won" is because of his relationship with players but it is taken too far and becomes a fault. His loyalty to terrible players has cost the team more games than it has won them. You could even see what I'm talking about during that Valverde melt down in Yankee Stadium when Miguel was giving Leyland the stink-eye after the Raul home run went out and he was livid. I'm a proponent of taking the most talented guys, letting them play, and relying on that. That's why I think it is terrible that Avisail wasn't starting the majority of games in the playoffs when I think, between his hitting and defense, he is one of the top three outfielders (maybe the second-best) on the team. But Jim doesn't do stuff like that because he has "his guys" and his veterans that he'd rather play over the talent.
I posted this in the game-thread, and this is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I'm ready to start looking for a full-time catcher. I like Avila, I really do, but his regression this year to me was the most disappointing. He doesn't seem to have the power anymore, he has started pulling everything, and his arm just doesn't look like it did in 2010/11 from behind the plate. I know he's young but a part of me feels like 2011 might have ruined his career with as much as the Tigers rode him. He broke down even earlier this season and even during the beginning part of the year, he didn't look like the player he was in 2011. I don't think he can be a 100+ game a season guy behind the plate like the Tigers seem to want him to be.
I'm also entirely ready to let Avisail start every single day in right field. But again, I'm more of a person who wants to see the most talented players play as opposed to the experienced players. I would give him the starting job right now and let him attempt to lose it rather than make him win it.
I'd also like to at least see a #5 pitcher be brought in to compete for the spot. Whether it's a veteran or a rookie, Porcello can not be handed the job by default again. Make him earn it and if Smyly looks like the better option or someone else, put Porcello in the bullpen and let it happen.2013 AAT: Justin Verlander - 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young Winner
2012 AAL: Joique Bell;
Record While I'm In Attendance (Career) Tigers: 7-1, Whitecaps: 15-5, GVSU Football: 58-5
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10-29-2012, 12:26 AM #8
I agree with your first two posts wholeheartedly.
My agenda for the offseason:
1. Re-sign Sanchez;
2. Acquire a RF who can at least get on base well and field reasonably well (Victorino for example);
3. Acquire a part-time RH Catcher who can hit decently (Paulino or Ross);
4. See about upgrading the SS glove-wise (Andrus or Hardy for example);
5. Re-sign Dotel;
6. Another arm in the bullpen wouldn't hurt (C. Janssen, J. Broxton, J. Affeldt, M. Belisle are some possible options)
ALSO: DON'T, PLEASE DON'T:
1. bring back Boesch, Raburn, Valverde, Kelly, Santiago, Delmon Young (nice postseason, but this guy has got to go);
2. rely on Garcia to be a regular player -- I'd prefer to see him get some time in AAA first, maybe a half-season;
3. rely on Dirks to be an everyday player;
4. re-sign Laird as the second Catcher (he's poor against LHP, no better than Avila would likely ever be, and he's not that great defensively either IMHO (not bad, but not that good either);Last edited by sabretooth; 10-29-2012 at 12:36 AM.
Introibo ad altare Dei
2013 AAT: Jim Price
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10-29-2012, 12:29 AM #9
I think the Tigers have an option on Dotel's contract for next year, which if I were Dave Dombrowski I would walk over to his locker and tell him I'm picking it up before he showers and leaves.
Tigers record when in attendance: 2012: 3-2 W1 Home: 1-2, Away 2-0
Tigers record when in attendance: 2011: 6-7 L5 Home: 4-5, Away 2-1, Playoffs Home: 0-1
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10-29-2012, 12:32 AM #10
I like Garcia, he showed much this year, but I for one am not ready to turn over the full time starting job to him this year. Leyland protected him by having him platoon and even with that protection he had only one extra base hit in two months. I'm sure the power will eventually come as he's young and clearly has talent, but I'd rather wait for the power to come in Toledo before turning over the starting job to him in Detroit.
Tigers record when in attendance: 2012: 3-2 W1 Home: 1-2, Away 2-0
Tigers record when in attendance: 2011: 6-7 L5 Home: 4-5, Away 2-1, Playoffs Home: 0-1
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Yes!! I absolutely love these threads, as well as this time of year in general.
I also expect them to go grab a 1-year rental RFer.
I don't expect an IFer, either, as Cabrera, Peralta, Infante, and Fielder will all likely be back. Maybe someone to replace Santiago but that's about it.
At catcher, bring back Laird for another year to back up Avila. I'm not sure who is out there but this is what I'm expecting the organization to do.
Now, as far as relief pitching, Valverde will be gone or given a minor league deal. I think the org will be expecting guys like Villarreal and Al Al to continue improving. With Benoit coming back, I could see them using either he or Dotel (if he actually stays for more than a year) as a closer, and if that fails, go with more of a closer by committee. I don't think they'll actually go out and sign another closer. They have a lot of good, young arms that can step in and do an adequate job. They also have a chance to move Porcello to the bullpen if they re-sign Sanchez, though I think it's more likely he'd be traded.
I think they will be set going into 2013 with an addition-by-subtraction approach. Their first half roster was ****. It improved the 2nd half, especially on defense. Fewer AB's by Young, Boesch, Raburn, etc., and the addition of Martinez, should make a huge difference.Facebook
Up above, aliens hover, making home movies for the folks back home.
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10-29-2012, 12:33 AM #12
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Won't Dotel just want to sign with St. Louis?
Tigers' Octavio Dotel: Our team doesn't have same fight as 2011 Cardinals | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Free Press | freep.com
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10-29-2012, 12:33 AM #13
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10-29-2012, 12:34 AM #14
Sanchez is going to be making a LOT more than $7.5 million per year. There are very few quality starters out there and a lot of teams will be looking for one (including Boston and New York). Sanchez is gone unless the Tigers want to pay him $12-15 per year for the next 5 years. I say they don't.
I think you're looking at Porcello and Smyly as 4-5 next year. I can live with that. Save your money for JV's extension.
They'll bring back Peralta at short because he's cheap. They'll sign a couple arms to compete in the pen and trade Boesch for someone else's disappointing bullpen arm. Hopefully they'll sign a right fielder on a short term deal (hopefully Torii Hunter, but I doubt he leaves southern california for detroit). Laird might come back unless they can get another right handed catcher that Jim Leyland will never use.
They need to cut Don Kelly so that Leyland can't use him anymore. Same with Raburn.
At the end of it all, the team will look an awful lot like this year's team.the above opinion is not respected by Deleterious
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10-29-2012, 12:34 AM #15
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10-29-2012, 12:35 AM #16
There's no doubt in my mind that Paulino or Ross would be nice upgrades on Laird, and far far better platoon options against LHP. It's a no-brainer. Please no more Laird - he had a nice season, but he is not a platoon option.
Introibo ad altare Dei
2013 AAT: Jim Price
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10-29-2012, 12:36 AM #17
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Was he? Scherzer, Fister and Sanchez had no fight? Coke? Jackson? Peralta? Young? Cabrera?
None of those people showed "fight?" Funny beards and photobombing doesn't mean anything other than a hook Joe Buck can use.
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10-29-2012, 12:37 AM #19
as long as Verlander-Fister-Scherzer are your 1-2-3 and Cabrera-Fielder-Martinez are your 3-4-5, the tiger should be the favorites to go back to the world series.
the above opinion is not respected by Deleterious
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10-29-2012, 12:38 AM #20
See I disagree with bringing young guys up and putting them in a platoon situation. I think that's better for veterans. I think the worst thing to do is bring up a young guy, like Garcia, and make sure 95% of his at-bats are against left-handed pitchers. That's not how you learn to hit and guys at that age need the experience of hitting pitchers from both sides. At that age, they can get in the mindset of kind of "forgetting" how to approach a right-handed pitcher then and struggle when faced with that as a full-time starter, whenever that may be. I think Garcia is one of the three best outfielders in the entire organization and therefore I believe he should be starting for the top team in the organization. Just like I believe Bruce Rondon is one of the seven best relief pitchers in the organization and I believe he should be in the bullpen for the Tigers starting today.
2013 AAT: Justin Verlander - 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young Winner
2012 AAL: Joique Bell;
Record While I'm In Attendance (Career) Tigers: 7-1, Whitecaps: 15-5, GVSU Football: 58-5
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10-29-2012, 12:41 AM #21
I would agree that Garcia is one of the three best outfielders in the organization --- Which is why they need to sign more outfielders. I don't think it would be a good thing if they're forced to rely on the production of Garcia, or have him learning to hit RHP at the major league level in 2013.
Also someone posted about Santiago, I think he's signed through next year as well.Tigers record when in attendance: 2012: 3-2 W1 Home: 1-2, Away 2-0
Tigers record when in attendance: 2011: 6-7 L5 Home: 4-5, Away 2-1, Playoffs Home: 0-1
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10-29-2012, 12:41 AM #22
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10-29-2012, 12:43 AM #23
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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10-29-2012, 12:45 AM #24
Oh, I'm totally cool if they want to turn over his role to Danny Worth (who seemingly has been Santiago-in-training for about 5 years now), I'm just noting that if they do it they're going to have to eat a contract that is in force, because he is signed through next year.
Tigers record when in attendance: 2012: 3-2 W1 Home: 1-2, Away 2-0
Tigers record when in attendance: 2011: 6-7 L5 Home: 4-5, Away 2-1, Playoffs Home: 0-1
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10-29-2012, 12:46 AM #25
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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10-29-2012, 12:46 AM #26
The positional depth and infield defense needs to improve. For a team that made it to the World Series, this team has so many AAAA-type players that don't even really bring any sort of versatility to the team, at least for the most part.
At the very least, they need to find players that bring versatility on this bench. They do that and this will be a much better team. But really, I'd love to see a complete change at both middle infield positions.
With the pitching staff - I can't say anything that anyone else is probably saying. About Sanchez, I don't want to sell the farm to get him, but if you can keep him at a reasonable price, go for it. That said, I don't know how possible that will be."Only Lions fans can predict a victory when their starting quarterback has a broken arm." -unknown
"I'm going to go the Pistons' game tonight and watch Sheed jack up threes." -unknown
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10-29-2012, 12:48 AM #27
AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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My guess:
1. They will place a premium on re-signing Sanchez.
2. If successful, that opens the door to trading Porcello + a few prospects for a corner OF bat.
3. They elect to go a cheap route in FA for relievers and sign another Dotel type (they also bring Dotel back).
4. I imagine they will pick up Peralta's option and explore trading him- but if they cannot find a good deal, then he'll be back as the SS.
5. They will work on improving the bench with cheap, platoon FA's.
6. They will sign several relievers (Zumaya) and starters to minor league deals to improve the depth that was seen in Toledo this season.
SP:
JV
Fister
Scherzer
Sanchez
Smyly
Relievers:
Dotel
Benoit
Coke
Al Al
Villareal
FA
A host of others...
C: Avila, probably Laird (although, hopefully someone more adept at hitting LHP)
1B: Fielder
2B: Infante
SS: Peralta (Most likely)
3B: Cabrera
LF: Dirks/ FA or trade acquisition for a platoon
CF: Jackson
RF: FA or trade acquisition
DH: Martinez
- I actually see the bench being completely up in the air considering how awful it was this season.
- More than likely, we'll be better next season and win a few more games in the regular season and make it back to the postseason. Unfortunately, the odds are that we won't make it back to the WS even if we do have a better team given the randomness of the short series in the baseball postseason.Last edited by Scottwood; 10-29-2012 at 12:53 AM.
Dreaming about a repeat of 1984, 1968, 1945 and 1935
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10-29-2012, 12:49 AM #29
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10-29-2012, 12:49 AM #30
I'm just saying...I think if Garcia is the starting RF in 2013, he is the AL Rookie of the Year going away. I realize he didn't have an XBH until the playoffs, but the majority of his appearances were also one PA a game and it's hard to get in any kind of hitting rhythm when you're doing nothing but pinch-hitting and playing defense.
2013 AAT: Justin Verlander - 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young Winner
2012 AAL: Joique Bell;
Record While I'm In Attendance (Career) Tigers: 7-1, Whitecaps: 15-5, GVSU Football: 58-5
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10-29-2012, 12:50 AM #31
another point. They need to give Alex some conditioning help and maybe have him re-evaluate some of his physical techniques or equipment choices. I hope it isn't an issue suggesting what the Asst GMs son should do for himself over the winter....?
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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10-29-2012, 12:54 AM #32
I agree with most of this stuff, but I'm not sure on the Sanchez re-signing. I am in favor of going with Smyly and maybe signing another veteran mop-up type that could fill in at 5th starter. I think our rotation will be too expensive and not geared enough towards the future and value if we re-sign Sanchez. I would like this team to be built for continual greatness, not boom and bust.
I would still be in favor of re-signing Laird. I just don't think there are other part-time options that would be significantly better. But I could be swayed depending on who is available and for what price.AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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10-29-2012, 12:54 AM #33
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10-29-2012, 12:55 AM #34
And the pitching in the majors is approximately 913% better than that in A or AA. I didn't think I had to verify I was talking about facing MLB pitching in those situations. I don't care what kind of hitting rhythm he's in in A and AA...anyone who comes in to the majors is basically re-learning how to hit on the fly and Garcia is too talented to be hitting only against LHP.
2013 AAT: Justin Verlander - 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young Winner
2012 AAL: Joique Bell;
Record While I'm In Attendance (Career) Tigers: 7-1, Whitecaps: 15-5, GVSU Football: 58-5
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10-29-2012, 12:57 AM #35
Lee Panas
detroittigertales.com
"They can use both (old- and new-school statistics)," Cabrera said. "In 2012, we've got to take advantage of all that.
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10-29-2012, 12:57 AM #36
The point I'm making is that he was not particularly great in the minor leagues and has never been a highly touted prospect.
He is only 21 years old. He needs to improve his plate discipline and approach. I was actually highly impressed with what he showed in the major leagues, but counting on him to be an amazing player next year seems very dangerous to me. I'd much prefer that he spend the year in the minors refining his game.Kobernoooooous
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"Violence on television only affects children whose parents act like television personalities" -David Byrne
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10-29-2012, 01:04 AM #38
I thought he was a highly-touted prospect as soon as he came to the Tigers' org and just needed to "put it all together" as the cliche goes. He strikes me as a guy who plays up to the competition around him and will do better when facing better competition and being around better players. I guess I just thought he was impressive enough in the two months we saw him up with the team that I think he's one of the best options currently in the organization to give them a chance at winning the most games. That's what I'm saying...there's guys who have the experience like Dirks/Raburn/whatever other garbage but I'd rather have the talent play.
I agree it's dangerous to expect him to produce for a full major league season...but given the current outfielders in the organization, I believe he's one of the best options and am comfortable with it. Now if the Tigers go sign an outfielder such as Torii Hunter as was suggested, and want to start Dirks in left, then I'd be a little more accepting. But as are the options right now, there's nobody else even close IMO.2013 AAT: Justin Verlander - 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young Winner
2012 AAL: Joique Bell;
Record While I'm In Attendance (Career) Tigers: 7-1, Whitecaps: 15-5, GVSU Football: 58-5
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10-29-2012, 01:25 AM #39
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10-29-2012, 01:27 AM #40
I wouldn't say that Garcia isn't highly touted. We paid a decent bonus to land him. He's definitely a DD "tools" guy. He made a TON of progress this year, but probably needs to start next year in AAA along with Castellanos.
It would be nice if we could trade for a veteran corner OF with only 1 year left on his contract to cover just for 2013.
The good thing is that the positions this team needs to be filled are easy ones to fill. You can usually find plenty of mediocre corner OF every season. We also need a revamped IF bench. I'm fine with Dirks and Berry being fourth and fifth OF. But we need a solid utility IF, and need to get rid of Kelly, Santiago, and Raburn.AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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