2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[Shelton]

I'd be happy to sign a right handed outfielder who is a year removed from pretty decent production to a minor league deal.

I'd sign pretty much any free agent available to a minor league deal if they fit one of the obvious needs of the team.

Aging curve or not, his decline was so severe that I'd gamble on it being anomalous. Former tiger or not.

[Casimir]

1. CF Michael Bourn. Yes yes we'd give up our first rounder, yes yes we have a CF already, but Speed is the thing we've lacked, and of course they are still looking for someone to 'Help the Dirks', which would push him to the OF-Sub.
2. 2B Kelly Johnson. He had a HORRRRRIBLE 2012, but still could be a good backup at a few spots on the team. Basically would take the spot of Santiago/Worth.
3. OF Sizemore. Sure he won't be ready till a month or two in the season, and he'll be out again a week after that due to a horrible 'Teacup' incident, but he would be someone to take a Flyer on.
4. C Kelly Shoppach. I still think they need a better option at the backup C spot, and could help with a 'Fight for the backup C spot' with the 18 other C who have a shot.

Bourn is interesting if they could get him on a one year deal. I assume that could give the Tigers a chance to recoup thedraft compensation should Bourn leave after one year? I have lost track of draft compensation. Plus, given the win now mode of the Tigers, the draft pick may not hold much value to the Tigers. An defensive alignment of Bourn, Jackson, Hunter seems pretty good.

I like the Johnson suggestion as it could help free up Infante to cover SS for Peralta days off. He seems to be a great upgrade over Santiago/Worth despite his recent decline.

I don't think I'd touch Sizemore. I thought he'd be a decent pick uplast offseason, but I'm not so sure he'd be attainable. I get the impression he'd look for a starting offer, and I'm not sure he's worth that offer with his health issues. Then again, I didn't think Delmon would be signed by an NL team, so I guess anything is possible.

Agree with you about the backup C spot. But I wonder if they think that Holaday could be ready to handle it this season and Pena is just cheap insurance if Holaday starts out in Toledo?

[sabretooth]

the other thing which seems to be true is that the better the player, the longer and flatter the curve for his production phase. Or conversely, the productive phase for poor players tends to be narrow- sometimes only 3-4 yrs at MLB level.

This seems to be true from everything I've seen....marginal talents seem to fall off very quickly. I am guessing that Raburn is an example of this, although I would guess that he's still capable of doing better than 2012.

[Verlander MVP 2011]

DELMON YOUNG ISN'T A TIGER ANYMORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is all.

[Yoda]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Braves close to acquiring Justin Upton from #Diamondbacks. Still working through final details.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: Randall Delgado is part of package going from #Braves to #Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.

[Walt]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Braves close to acquiring Justin Upton from #Diamondbacks. Still working through final details.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: Randall Delgado is part of package going from #Braves to #Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.

Heyman is saying that the players are agreed upon, just waiting for physicals.

[Yoda]

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman
Source: Braves get Justin Upton and Chris Johnson from D-backs for Prado, Delgado, Ahmed and Spruill.

[Yoda]

I wouldn't have expected Prado and Johnson to be in the mix... looks like one of those trades that should work well for both teams.

[ROMAD1]

MLB radio will now turn to beating on the Bourne drum. After complaining that Justin Upton should never be traded.

I'm sure they will direct Texas to sign Bourne because he's the last expensive FA out there.

[vannzee]

That's a good package both ways for Arizona and Atlanta. I think Delgado adds another talented young arm to Arizona which includes Skaggs, Kennedy, Cahill, Miley, Corbin, and Hudson plus Delgado (and signee Brandon McCarthy).

What an athletic outfield in Atlanta now, but after they traded Hanson for Walden I am surprised they traded Delgado. Probably Medlen, Hudson, Minor, Tehran, and then one of Maholm or Beachy, who is coming off of injury. Tehran wasn't all that great in AAA last year.

I agree this should help both teams but with adding Prado does it really solve the outfield surplus in Arizona? I think they still look to trade Kubel, who has similar (even better) stats then what Cody Ross had last year.

Don't forget that the Braves come to Comerica this year.

Also on the Raburn point, to kind of finish it off, I just think that everyone involved needed to seperate from Raburn, to Leyland, to the fans. I just don't see a way that Raburn could have returned to be successful, minor league deal or not in Detroit.

Scott Hairston, 2 years and 6 million to the Cubs. There goes another right handed outfielder. Marcum signs with the Mets.

[ballmich]

Hairston signs for 2 years and "up to" $6MM. Gomes signes for 2 years $10MM. I did not think I'd see that this winter.

[chasfh]

the other thing which seems to be true is that the better the player, the longer and flatter the curve for his production phase. Or conversely, the productive phase for poor players tends to be narrow- sometimes only 3-4 yrs at MLB level.

Is this really true on a relational basis? I can't remember anything I might have read about this, but logicking this one through, I totally buy that good and great players perform much better at older ages than average players. But is that superior production masking a decline that is relationally the same at the same ages? I don't know, just asking.

[alwaysthrowheat]

I wouldn't have expected Prado and Johnson to be in the mix... looks like one of those trades that should work well for both teams.

The Braves package is a pretty far cry from the M's.

[4hzglory]

Evidently the D-Backs are now hard after Porcello

D'Backs To Pursue Rick Porcello
By Zach Links [January 24 at 11:33am CST]
The Diamondbacks will now try to package shortstop Nick Ahmed and a pitching prospect in a trade for the Tigers' Rick Porcello, a National League official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter).
D'Backs To Pursue Rick Porcello: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[Shelton]

Bob nightengale is saying on twitter that the dbacks will try to package ss nick Ahmed and a pitching prospect for porcello.

[ballmich]

That better be one heck of a pitching prospect.

[TigersSlappy]

Jason Beck ‏@beckjason

Verlander: No talks yet with #Tigers on contract extension, but he'd like to be a Tiger for his whole career.

Please make this so.

[spikesglaring]

Evidently the D-Backs are now hard after Porcello

D'Backs To Pursue Rick Porcello
By Zach Links [January 24 at 11:33am CST]
The Diamondbacks will now try to package shortstop Nick Ahmed and a pitching prospect in a trade for the Tigers' Rick Porcello, a National League official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter).
D'Backs To Pursue Rick Porcello: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Excuse me if I am unimpressed. A 22-year old who did not rake in Rookie ball, has only average on-base skills, and could outgrow the position. Granted, he is a great defensive infielder & has fantastic speed, but he isn't even close to contributing.

[4hzglory]

That better be one heck of a pitching prospect.

My thoughts exactly!

[MC24]

Yeah, this SS doesn't excite me. Arizona has a ton of pitching so I don't really get why they want Porcello anyways...

[tiger337]

Ahmed excites me about as much as Danny Worth a couple years ago.

[Nastradamus]

The Braves package is a pretty far cry from the M's.

I think that's debatable. A good 3B like Prado is tough to find. He might outproduce Upton next year.

[Yoda]

Excuse me if I am unimpressed. A 22-year old who did not rake in Rookie ball, has only average on-base skills, and could outgrow the position. Granted, he is a great defensive infielder & has fantastic speed, but he isn't even close to contributing.

I agree, but someone with his speed/defense at 6'3" is intriguing. He's currently a .340 OBP guy that could add more power as he matures. He's definitely not a guy I would trade Porcello for but as a throw-in with a good pitching prospect I might be interested. He'll be in double-A this year and his speed/defense could make him ready by mid-2014-ish.

[Yoda]

Ahmed excites me about as much as Danny Worth a couple years ago.

To be fair, Ahmed is faster, a better defender, and has a better chance to add power than Danny did. Not saying it'll happen, but he is a better prospect.

[Shelton]

I can only rely on what I find through google, but it sounds like Ahmed is pretty good defensively at ss, and has the potential to provide a lot of value with his speed. He's likely to begin the year at Double A and is probably not ready until the 2015 season.

That being said, the tigers aren't exactly flush with middle infield prospects, so this is the type of guy I would want in return for porcello. He's not enough on his own, but a decent pitching prospect could bridge that gap.

With peralta and infante becoming free agents after this year, the tigers could use more middle infielder prospects with decent profiles.

[tiger337]

To be fair, Ahmed is faster, a better defender, and has a better chance to add power than Danny did. Not saying it'll happen, but he is a better prospect.

I don't know much about him, but Mark's scouting report doesn't make me think he's an exceptional defender.

2013 Atlanta Braves Top 15 Prospects | Baseball Prospect Nation

I wouldn't mind if the Tigers acquired him, but he shouldn't be the main attraction in a trade for Porcello.

[Microline133]

I wouldn't mind if the Tigers acquired him, but he shouldn't be the main attraction in a trade for Porcello.

This.

[Shelton]

How would he profile at second, mark?

[Microline133]

He's a .250-.260 hitter with doubles power...his prospect status takes an enormous hit away from shortstop. Most scouts think he's a big leaguer; maybe a second division guy at SS or a very nice utility type.

[Yoda]

I don't know much about him, but Mark's scouting report doesn't make me think he's an exceptional defender.

2013 Atlanta Braves Top 15 Prospects | Baseball Prospect Nation

I wouldn't mind if the Tigers acquired him, but he shouldn't be the main attraction in a trade for Porcello.

I believe he was considered the Braves top defensive infield prospect. That doesn't really tell me much, though.

[Scottwood]

Would they give up Skaggs for Porcello (I'm assuming we'd also have more than Porcello in the deal)? I'm not necessarily seeing a logical fit here.

[CapitalTigers]

I believe he was considered the Braves top defensive infield prospect. That doesn't really tell me much, though.

While I'm not impressed with Porcello, I don't want us to trade for a prospect only. With the thought of winning now, an A ball level/ AA ball now shortstop will not help us. Rick is cheap for a while too, this can't be a legitimate trade talk. Dombrowski knows better.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

While I'm not impressed with Porcello, I don't want us to trade for a prospect only. With the thought of winning now, an A ball level/ AA ball now shortstop will not help us. Rick is cheap for a while too, this can't be a legitimate trade talk. Dombrowski knows better.

Rick really isn't that cheap anymore...

[Shelton]

Rick isn't all that cheap anymore, and either him or smyly as they currently stand are valuable as insurance, but that value is limited by the amount you expect them to need a sixth starter.

Trading porcello without improving the major league team might cost them a win or so over the course of the season.

Fortunately, the central is so terrible relative to the tigers that they could probably take that gamble without affecting their postseason chances too much.

I think I'd trade Rick for Ahmed and maybe holmberg from the dbacks system.

[irvink]

Ahmed reviews from around the web:

Jonathan Mayo

Nick Ahmed, SS: Ahmed was No. 10 on the Braves' Top 20. While he might have gotten more attention coming out of the University of Connecticut in 2011 because of first-rounders George Springer and Matt Barnes, the second-rounder has clearly made a name for himself. Ahmed is the kind of player who impresses the more he's seen. While none of his tools jump out as plus, his whole is greater than the sum of his parts. That being said, Ahmed is a solid defender at shortstop, he runs fairly well and he goes to the plate with a solid approach and game plan. Maybe he's not an All-Star, but he's the type of player all winning teams tend to have on their rosters.

Prospects acquired by D-backs for Upton | MLB.com: News

Mike Newman at Fangraphs

Nick Ahmed has a long, lanky frame at shortstop which is ideal. However, the agility and quickness one would expect from a 40-stolen base player falls a bit flat. Ahmed has the arm strength and lateral movement to stick, but he’s an average defensive shortstop for me.

On offense, he had a tendency to push the barrel using an inside out approach. The bat appeared heavy in his hands as if Ahmed lacked strength. However, one can dream on his body filling out, allowing him to add size and develop more power.

Atlanta Braves Top 15 Prospects (2012-13) | FanGraphs Baseball

Keith Law calls him a "fringy prospect."

Nick Ahmed was the ninth-best prospect in Atlanta's system, a good defensive shortstop with a plus-plus arm but very little offensive upside; he loads his hands very deep, leading to a long swing, and doesn't have the plate discipline to allow him to compensate.

Breaking down the Justin Upton trade from Diamondbacks to the Braves -- MLB - ESPN

[ballmich]

Would they give up Skaggs for Porcello (I'm assuming we'd also have more than Porcello in the deal)? I'm not necessarily seeing a logical fit here.

I think that if the Tigers really like Ahmed, they could figure out something that makes sense. I just hope they don't place a lot of value on Ahmed in the trade, because we should get 1-2 good pieces in addition to him.

[cruzer1]

Since the DBacks are giving away premium talent I'd begin my conversation with Bradley/Skaggs.

[ballmich]

I think I'd trade Rick for Ahmed and maybe holmberg from the dbacks system.

Personally, I would need more than that.

Collmenter
Ahmed
Pitching prospect like a Corbin or Anderson or Holmberg or Delgado

Collmenter is maybe a little much to add in, but I think we need some kind of "6th" SP coming back given our lack of depth. And any trade for Porcello likely pushes Collmenter off the roster. And Arizona has the depth to be able to do this without worrying.

Frankly, I can't see why they would need Porcello, they've got a ton of pitching.

[cruzer1]

Personally, I would need more than that.

Collmenter
Ahmed
Pitching prospect like a Corbin or Anderson or Holmberg or Delgado

Collmenter is maybe a little much to add in, but I think we need some kind of "6th" SP coming back given our lack of depth. And any trade for Porcello likely pushes Collmenter off the roster. And Arizona has the depth to be able to do this without worrying.

Frankly, I can't see why they would need Porcello, they've got a ton of pitching.

Collmenter is terrible.

[ballmich]

Collmenter is terrible.

He's not a world beater, but he is okay and not expensive. 244 career innings with an ERA+ of 115. 3.60 K/BB. We all know that's not too shabby. I'm not sure how he would play in the AL, but as a 6th Starter or swing man, he'd be okay.