2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[pyrotigers]

Looks like MLB GMs finally have an accurate view of Delmon's value

[zimm]

now if someone would just sign Valverde to ensure he won't be back...

[roarintiger1]

Keep in mind that Worth runs better than Santiago, and has added a little pop last couple of years.
I like Ramon, but could see Worth bumping him this year (or a trade)

Thank God......somebody else that thinks this........

[ballmich]

I knew we grossly overpaid Young after we signed him, and before he performed in 2012. But this year's contract really brings that mistake into clear focus.

[roarintiger1]

Whew...Delmon takes close to a 90% pay cut. Not a bad deal for the Phillies @ $750,000 compared to last years 6.75 million.

Quite a pay cut.....must not have any other phone calls.....

[irvink]

A couple more bits from twitter:

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan
Source says Delmon Young could earn up to $3.5 million if he reaches all of his incentives based on plate appearances and roster bonuses.

DKnobler ‏@DKnobler
Tigers don't appear to be close to trading Porcello. But no real pressure to move him fast, either.

[TigersSlappy]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I don't know about anyone else, but I would pay to watch Delmon play RF in AT&T Park. #phillies

[john doe]

Ruben Amaro says Phillies signed Delmon Young to play right field every day | Big League Stew - Yahoo! Sports

[shauntacular]

Brown has had some developmental issues but if he loses at bats to Delmon Young then the Phillies are hopeless.

[PuNk42AE]

With only 3 weeks till Pitchers and Catchers Report, here are some of the Free Agents i'd still take a look at...

1. CF Michael Bourn. Yes yes we'd give up our first rounder, yes yes we have a CF already, but Speed is the thing we've lacked, and of course they are still looking for someone to 'Help the Dirks', which would push him to the OF-Sub.
2. 2B Kelly Johnson. He had a HORRRRRIBLE 2012, but still could be a good backup at a few spots on the team. Basically would take the spot of Santiago/Worth.
3. OF Sizemore. Sure he won't be ready till a month or two in the season, and he'll be out again a week after that due to a horrible 'Teacup' incident, but he would be someone to take a Flyer on.
4. C Kelly Shoppach. I still think they need a better option at the backup C spot, and could help with a 'Fight for the backup C spot' with the 18 other C who have a shot.

[ROMAD1]

Bloody freezing heck!!! This season can't get here soon enough.

Just to change the subject: Rick Porcello should adopt some facial hair--like a Fu Manchu mustache or sideburns. He should then be given a radio show with Phil Coke

[Walt]

Bloody freezing heck!!! This season can't get here soon enough.

Just to change the subject: Rick Porcello should adopt some facial hair--like a Fu Manchu mustache or sideburns. He should then be given a radio show with Phil Coke

Can Rick grow facial hair?

[vannzee]

There has been a couple of guys that I like out there on the market, that just don't really fit with our roster.

I liked Fransisco Liranio as an upside kind of guy. I think going to the NL will help him. He and Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) had some of the best pure stuff but injuries and command really held them back. I also like Erik Bedard, who on a minor league deal in Houston should be a good gamble. He started last year pretty hot and then ended up getting released after the break. His secondary stats were still good, mainly his K per 9. Shaun Marcum and Loshe could be interesting as this winter unfolds. Jobs are drying up and Marcum may need to take a one year deal while Loshe may have to settle for a minor league deal to avoid the draft pick compensation.

Also, how Travis Hafner is still out there is beyond me. Yes, he is aging and injury prone but when you look at what Berkman got then someone should see the value you in Hafner, just not in Detroit. People like to think that he is no longer a productive hitter but he was productive last year, you just have to understand he can't field or won't be in the lineup every day. I guess the fact that he can't field limits his value as a big bench bat.

I also think that Delmon Young for what the Phillies are paying him is a steal. I thought he would be looking at way more then that and sure he has his off the field warts, ankle injury and poor defense but he is still only 27, and hit 18 home runs last year. Ive seen lesser power hitters continue you to get more money then Young is getting.

Yes, I am ready for the season or something real to discuss.

[ROMAD1]

Without accusing anyone--when a player with massive power numbers suddenly becomes injury prone--is that a PEDs red flag?

[Keepleyland2]

Bloody freezing heck!!! This season can't get here soon enough.

Just to change the subject: Rick Porcello should adopt some facial hair--like a Fu Manchu mustache or sideburns. He should then be given a radio show with Phil Coke

Coke with a splash of rick?
rick and coke?
The Two Manchu?
Coke and Rick knows no season?
Have a coke and a Porcello?

[ROMAD1]

Coke with a splash of rick?
rick and coke?
The Two Manchu?
Coke and Rick knows no season?
Have a coke and a Porcello?

Is Coke Zero 30 taken?

[vannzee]

Without accusing anyone--when a player with massive power numbers suddenly becomes injury prone--is that a PEDs red flag?

I would guess that you could say that but I would also look for sudden spikes to new levels of power, like going from 10-11 home runs to 25-30 home runs.

For the most part I just assume that if a player has never had a positive test (in either the MLB, MiLB) or was not named in the Mitchell report, then their performances are legit. I am sure that that is a highly flawed way of thinking but it keeps my mind at ease when watching the games.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

I think the exercise of looking at guys who had one crazy career year with regards to power fruitless, unless one thinks Wally Moses or Davey Johnson were using PEDS.

I also don't get the idea that a guy would have a great season or two and then stop using PEDs.

EDIT: Also, at least for me, a guy like Nook Logan only demonstrates there is no body type or career arc that makes it easy to identify a PED user.

[tiger337]

I think the exercise of looking at guys who had one crazy career year with regards to power fruitless, unless one thinks Wally Moses or Davey Johnson were using PEDS.

I also don't get the idea that a guy would have a great season or two and then stop using PEDs.

Earl Webb took the roids just to break the doubles record.

[irvink]

Orioles still interested in Rick...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Orioles pursuing trade for #Diamondbacks' Kubel. Talks not at advanced stage. Orioles also like #Tigers' Porcello.

[pyrotigers]

Earl Webb took the roids just to break the doubles record.

You know, there actually is one player being inducted into the hall this year. Despite the backlash against 'ped users'....and well...

Deacon White Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

I'm not one to throw around baseless accusations, but a crazy career year at age 29? More than half of his career HRs hit from age 36 on? Yeah....suspicious.

[chasfh]

He turns 32 in April. It's just as likely he had a bad year than suffering any significant age related regression last season. And on a minor league deal at the right price, it would have been a good gamble that it was just a bad year.

It doesn't have to be either-or. It can be both.

Age thirty-one is beyond prime, and is subject to age-related decline.

[ballmich]

There still seems to be a fair amount of smoke around potential trades for Porcello and Kubel, and I can't help but think there is some kind of 3-team trade in the works.

[ballmich]

Age thirty-one is beyond prime, and is subject to age-related decline.

So 31 is beyond prime and everyone over that is in age-related decline?

[Yoda]

So 31 is beyond prime and everyone over that is in age-related decline?

You know that isn't what he said.

[chasfh]

You know that isn't what he said.

Yeah, what he said.

It's not necessary a discrete choice between "Raburn just had a bad year" and "Raburn suffered from age-related decline". It could have been a combination of both. That's what I would put my money on.

[vannzee]

It doesn't have to be either-or. It can be both.

Age thirty-one is beyond prime, and is subject to age-related decline.

Primes and declines are not universal among all players, but I would say that on average you see career years or a players prime between 27 and 30. Again that is not true with all players but more of the average.

Maybe Raburn just had a bad year (he has bordered on bad years in the past but hot second half's saved his stat lines) but at age 31, it is not the age where G.M's are going to feel comfortable in a rebound, imo.

[vannzee]

Also,

age, bad year or both, Raburn probably will improve on last years numbers just because they can't get much worse.

[chasfh]

Primes and declines are not universal among all players, but I would say that on average you see career years or a players prime between 27 and 30. Again that is not true with all players but more of the average.

Maybe Raburn just had a bad year (he has bordered on bad years in the past but hot second half's saved his stat lines) but at age 31, it is not the age where G.M's are going to feel comfortable in a rebound, imo.

I've seen a few studies that had basically concluded that player peaks are generally over well before age 30.

I just googled my way to another one, which I hadn't seen before, and which differentiates 1950-1979 players from 1980-2008. I think this is a good and valid way to approach the question, given that players today are widely acknowledged to be in much better shape later in life than their parents' generation was.

The conclusion here appears to be that players' peaks over the last 30 years occurs at ages 27-28, with a slight step down to 29-30, then an inexorable drop starting at age 31. Contrast this with the peak of 30-60 years ago, where players peaked at 26-28, with the inexorable decline beginning immediately after that and well in progress by age 32.





They did a follow-up study which attempted to address what they term "survivors bias" present in the first study, which they define early on in this article, and which suggests that peak may occur a little later than had previously thought when taking this bias into account:





In basic terms, though, no matter how you slice this question, decline for ballplayers in general is in motion by age 31.

This does not mean that Raburn himself was the victim of age-related decline, simply because he was 31 last year. But it also means you cannot discount the possibility, and in fact you could probably safely lay a little money on it. There's only one way to know: revisit his 2013 performance in October. Or sooner, if he washes out.

[chasfh]

Also,

age, bad year or both, Raburn probably will improve on last years numbers just because they can't get much worse.

Sometimes, a change of "scenery" (i.e., coaching and system) might be just what the doctor ordered for Ryan Raburn. We've seen lots of players leave the Tigers system and experience good success elsewhere, just like we've seen lots of players come here and do great after struggling elsewhere.

[PuNk42AE]

Delmon Young will be paid bonuses if he keeps his weight in check throughout the 2013 season.
Young will be weighed six different times and can earn a $100,000 payout for each weigh-in. "I've been on a strict diet," the new Phillies outfielder said Wednesday. "You can get carried away on clubhouse food and late night room service. Some ice cream and good luck cakes. But when you go back to the outfield, you have got to eat lighter." The Phillies want him to start in right field.

Those damn 'Good Luck Cakes'!!!

[sabretooth]

"When you're only having seconds, I'm a-havin' twenty-thirds, when I go to get my shoes shined, I have to take their word..."

[zimm]

Those damn 'Good Luck Cakes'!!!

if by "good luck cakes" he means "bottles at the club"...

[Gehringer_2]

I've seen a few studies that had basically concluded that player peaks are generally over well before age 30.

I just googled my way to another one, which I hadn't seen before, and which differentiates 1950-1979 players from 1980-2008. I think this is a good and valid way to approach the question, given that players today are widely acknowledged to be in much better shape later in life than their parents' generation was.

The conclusion here appears to be that players' peaks over the last 30 years occurs at ages 27-28, with a slight step down to 29-30, then an inexorable drop starting at age 31. Contrast this with the peak of 30-60 years ago, where players peaked at 26-28, with the inexorable decline beginning immediately after that and well in progress by age 32.





They did a follow-up study which attempted to address what they term "survivors bias" present in the first study, which they define early on in this article, and which suggests that peak may occur a little later than had previously thought when taking this bias into account:





In basic terms, though, no matter how you slice this question, decline for ballplayers in general is in motion by age 31.

This does not mean that Raburn himself was the victim of age-related decline, simply because he was 31 last year. But it also means you cannot discount the possibility, and in fact you could probably safely lay a little money on it. There's only one way to know: revisit his 2013 performance in October. Or sooner, if he washes out.

the other thing which seems to be true is that the better the player, the longer and flatter the curve for his production phase. Or conversely, the productive phase for poor players tends to be narrow- sometimes only 3-4 yrs at MLB level.

[Shelton]

I'd have liked to see the tigers sign raburn to a low risk deal, and it's possible they offered one but the feeling wasn't mutual.

Either way, I expect raburn to have a couple more seasons in the bigs.

[roarintiger1]

Low and away with curveballs and Raburn doesn't hurt the Tigers.

[Antrat]

If the Tigers face Raburn at any point this season, I fully expect him to mash.
Just seems to work out that way sometimes.
*cough inge cough*

[Sven Draconian]

I'd have liked to see the tigers sign raburn to a low risk deal, and it's possible they offered one but the feeling wasn't mutual.

Either way, I expect raburn to have a couple more seasons in the bigs.

I'll be moderately surprised if Raburn takes a single major league AB in 2014. I would not be surprised if he has already taken his final major league AB.

[Chili Mac Davis]

Also, how Travis Hafner is still out there is beyond me. Yes, he is aging and injury prone but when you look at what Berkman got then someone should see the value you in Hafner, just not in Detroit. People like to think that he is no longer a productive hitter but he was productive last year, you just have to understand he can't field or won't be in the lineup every day. I guess the fact that he can't field limits his value as a big bench bat.

Totally agree on Hafner. Yanks should sign him as their DH. Or Cleveland should. Dude's gonna have his injuries, but, with the right (Delmon) type of contract, he could be useful.

[Yoda]

I'd have liked to see the tigers sign raburn to a low risk deal, and it's possible they offered one but the feeling wasn't mutual.

Either way, I expect raburn to have a couple more seasons in the bigs.

I believe if he'd be with some other team, there would not have been one single post wishing the Tigers would sign him.