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Thread: 2012-13 Offseason Discussion
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01-03-2013, 11:14 AM #2961
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That is pretty much the text book definition of a crappy bench. Ideally what you want is to have guys who while have shortcomings, exceed at certain areas of the game so that you can pick and choose where/when to make the most of those assets. Of that group, only one guy has any discernable area where he exeeds an average ball player; Berry has speed and is a good baserunner. Are any of them plus defender? No, not a single one. Do any of them have great offensive splits that we can take advantage of from time to time? No, not a single one. Anyone hit for a lot of power, or exceed at getting on base? No, not a single one. Do any of them give us positiional flexibility with their skills at multiple positions? No, though I realize that people hope Kobernus can play multiple positions which remains to be seen.
Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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01-03-2013, 11:19 AM #2962
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01-03-2013, 11:48 AM #2963
This is all true, but only applies to spot duty. That is all you hope you have to use your bench for, but if a guy goes down to a longer term injury, I think you prefer the overall sub-mediocre but balanced player over the one skill player, and the Tigers have to plan against both contingencies. Normally those balanced but mediocre guys would be at AAA, but not so much with this org so I can understand the hedging - to a degree.
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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01-03-2013, 11:58 AM #2964
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01-03-2013, 12:13 PM #2965
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Frasor to sign a 1-year deal with the Rangers. I hate to see the Rangers bullpen getting stronger, but glad to see the reliever FA market starting to settle on 1-year deals now. Hopefully this starts some movement and the Tigers can get a guy like F-Rod or Lyon at a reasonable price.
Edit: Reportedly 1yr/$1.5MM. At that price, I'll take two.Last edited by ballmich; 01-03-2013 at 01:11 PM.
Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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01-03-2013, 02:27 PM #2966
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Anybody see Buster Olney's article today naming the top 10 lineups in baseball? How do the Tigers not make that list??? I clicked on it thinking - I wonder if he'll have the Angels or the Tigers first. Angels were #1, Tigers were not even on the list.
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01-03-2013, 02:31 PM #2967
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25 man roster - 12 pitchers - 9 starting position players (Avila, Fielder, Infante, Cabrera, Peralta, Dirks, Jackson, Hunter, Martinez) = 4 bench players.
Pena is likely a shoo-in as backup backstop. If not him, than Holaday? Regardless, there will be a backup C not named Victor Martinez.
A backup IF, probably either Santiago or Worth. If Worth has options, he may be stashed in Toledo with Santiago on the Detroit bench. I understand that is a lazy way to look at it right now considering how Santiago seems to have regressed, but I can see a lazy move being made here.
A backup OF, but I don't know if Berry or Boesch are likely front runners here. Berry does have speed and can run the bases, but how many opportunities to use that speed will there be during the season? PR for Cabrera/Fielder? How often will that situation come up? Martinez, perhaps, because you don't have a defensive issue there. PR for Dirks, sure, easy substitution. PR for Avila/Peralta if the defensive substitute is available. I don't see Boesch as a fit, I think he goes to Toledo or moves on to another organization. It could be that they allow Dirks to start off the season as the full time LF, not worry about a RH OF bat, keep Berry as the 4th OF, and address this midseason if the situation dictates it.
The "Don Kelly Spot" is interesting. I think ideally they would like it to be a guy that can play IF/OF, and I bet Kobernus gets a serious shot at it in camp. But who knows where it goes from there? I think this spot is tied directly to the backup OF spot. The backup C and the above mentioned IF spot can be resolved on thier own, but the backup OF and 25th spot are going to be fluid with each other.
I wonder if it makes sense to bring in a different 2B option and have Infante as the RH LF platoon as well as split time with Peralta? I don't see it as likely, but I wonder if that is an avenue for the club to go down? Edit to add: I am not suggesting benching Infante. Rather, is there a way to keep his bat in the lineup regularly while using his defensive flexibility to platoon in LF, spell Peralta, an occasional day for Cabrera to DH/off, for Cabrera to 1B & Fielder DH/off?Last edited by Casimir; 01-03-2013 at 02:41 PM.
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01-03-2013, 03:01 PM #2968
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Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight; my goodness, and my fortress; my high tower, and my deliverer; my shield, and he in whom I trust; who subdueth my people under me. -- Psalm 144:1-2
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01-03-2013, 03:04 PM #2969
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01-03-2013, 03:06 PM #2970
I agree, the bench is crappy, but I still want Berry on the team. Pinch runners come in handy.
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01-03-2013, 03:30 PM #2971
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I think that they are more valuable in a playoff series vs the regular season. The issue with Berry is that the only thing of value with him is something that you won't bench a player for unless its late in a one run/tied game. I don't know how often thaat is going to come into play with the rotation & lineup in hand. Taking into consideration of the upgrades over last season (full season of Sanchez, healthy Martinez, Hunter in RF), the Tigers should trump last season's overall record. I would think they would improve in 1 run games as well (21-27 in 2012). And Berry's only asset is his baserunning. He's not good defensively given his speed. Can't get on base regularly. Can't be the RH side of a LF platoon. Can't play the IF. His speed is nice, but I think his other attributes just don't contribute enough to hand him a bench spot before spring training starts.
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01-03-2013, 03:42 PM #2972
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Pena is a decent back up catcher. Santiago/Worth have positional flexibility, and Worth is a very good defender. Kobernus has plus speed and offers more than Berry. The 4th outfielder is likely not yet on the team. I don't think Berry is likely on the 25. Boesch will have to show he has corrected his mechanical flaws to have a shot.
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01-03-2013, 03:56 PM #2973
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01-03-2013, 04:12 PM #2974
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01-03-2013, 04:48 PM #2975
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Santiago is a below average fielder and a way below average hitter.....he has no business making this team.
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01-03-2013, 04:55 PM #2976
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01-03-2013, 05:19 PM #2977
With Avila as the starting catcher, Pena is a horrible backup catcher.
Ideally, you'd like somebody who could be effective against LHP, but Pena is horrible against LHP, and even worse against RHP.
He's not somebody you would ever want to be your starter for an extended period of time, and there are durability concerns with Avila.
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01-03-2013, 05:21 PM #2978
Really, I don't see anything to like about any player on the Tigers bench.
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01-03-2013, 05:47 PM #2979
Detroit Baseball Dinner 2013
Some of us should go to this event. Try to talk DD into letting Dirks sink or swim full time in LF. And of course ***** about our horrible bench :)
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01-03-2013, 07:01 PM #2980
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01-03-2013, 10:22 PM #2981
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01-03-2013, 10:30 PM #2982
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we should take a look at Thomas Neal, who the Indians just waived. Might be a nice platoon option for Dirks, until the other guys are ready.
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01-03-2013, 10:45 PM #2983
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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01-03-2013, 10:56 PM #2984
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01-04-2013, 01:46 AM #2985
Positive off season post, that has (hopefully) nothing to do with our bench!

So pumped to have this guy back in the line up.GO TIGERS
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01-04-2013, 02:13 AM #2986
Fangraphs doesn't seem to think he's that bad:
Detroit Tigers Top 15 Prospects (2012-13) | FanGraphs Baseball
Fangraphs does seem to be going out on a limb here, as others don't seem to rate Kobernus so high, but their sources must see something in him. I'd wait at least a little bit to see his performance to declare him "ludicrously bad."Kobernus has been an under-the-radar prospect for a few years now as a speedy second baseman who can hit a little bit and has a chance to be an everyday player. The 24-year-old infielder has 75-80 speed with good base running instincts and that allowed him to 95 bases over the past two seasons while being caught 19 times. He also does a solid job of making contact and hitting for average, but he doesn’t walk nearly enough to take full advantage of his greatest asset.
When I asked a contact about Kobernus, he described the prospect as a “table-setter” who sprays line drives with gap strength. He also provides steady defense at second base. Although he’s played the keystone almost exclusively in his career there has been some talk of expanding his defensive repertoire to include other positions – in an effort to perhaps prepare him for a future utility role – but a cracked rib derailed the experiment during the fall instructional league.
Kobernus was surprisingly left unprotected by the Washington Nationals for the Rule 5 draft and was nabbed by the Tigers (via a pre-arranged draft-and-trade deal with Boston Red Sox). He has a good shot at breaking camp as one of Detroit’s utility players. With a little more patience at the plate, the prospect could turn into an average big league second baseman with a floor projection of back-up infielder.AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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01-04-2013, 03:20 AM #2987
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So uh...when we make it back to the World Series next season, we can't lose it this time...right? No one loses three times...RIGHT?!
"Violence on television only affects children whose parents act like television personalities" -David Byrne
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Up above, aliens hover, making home movies for the folks back home.
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01-04-2013, 08:42 AM #2989
Well there goes the 2013 season, JV's gonna be distracted.
Report: Justin Verlander, Kate Upton spotted together again | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Free Press | freep.com2013 AAT-Mr Ilitch 2012 AAL-Willie Young 2012 AAT-Dixon Machado 2011 AAL-Tom "Killer" Kowalski 2011 AAT-Heather Nabozny 2010 AAT-Phil Coke 2008 & 2007 AAT-Sergio Collado 2007 AT-AAT-Alan Trammell 1972 AAT-Duke Sims
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01-04-2013, 09:16 AM #2990
Kobernus at AA at age 24 continued his A-ball pattern of low walks, zero power, and worse-than-average K rate. This guy can run/steal, don't know about his defense, but he has seemingly zero hitting skills.
This is not Don Kelly 2.0...Don Kelly had a teeny bit of pop and could elevate the ball. Kobernus looks like a veery bad hitting version of Gary Pettis.Introibo ad altare Dei
2013 AAT: Jim Price
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01-04-2013, 10:48 AM #2991
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01-04-2013, 12:31 PM #2992
Kobernoooooous
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01-04-2013, 12:45 PM #2993
His minor league career has been hampered by injuries. If he's healthy for a whole season, he may get better faster, as his development has been delayed. He also stole 53 bases in his only complete season while getting caught 8 times, which can somewhat make up for a terrible slugging percentage. But given the current level of play from 2B around the league (terrible outside of a few stars), anyone who can hit close to a .700 OPS is probably acceptable, especially with good baserunning and/or defense.
Like I said, I don't know why Fangraphs seems to like him so much, as his numbers alone look terrible, but it seems like some scouts still think he has upside. He was a second round draft pick, so there's something there people like.AAT: 2007 L. Oliveros | 2008-10 F. Martinez | 2011 H. Perez | 2012 E. Suarez | 2013 J. Kobernus
"They turned the power to the have nots; and then came the shot!" - RATM
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01-04-2013, 01:19 PM #2994
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Why do people keep saying this? It drives me mad. Half the teams in the American League didn't even employ a full-time catcher last year, and this is the second year in the row Avila has been a full-time catcher. In that two year stretch he's caught more innings than everyone in the AL but Matt Wieters. How much more can this kid possibly catch before he's considered durable? What does that even mean, durable? His ability to play through injury? Avoiding injury? He missed 17 games due to injury last year. Replace that with playing time, and he moves from 2nd on the list to.... nope, still 2nd. I'm certainly not crying about that. The rest of the time he doesn't play is the bare minimal amount of rest you'd give someone that plays his amount of innings, and that's about 5 games a month. I'd call Avila extremely durable before I called his ability to catch absurd amounts into question.
There's nothing in Avila's playing history to suggest that he'll play anything less than 120 games next year. Pena has no noticeable platoon split, and since he's a switch-hitter Leyland doesn't have to concern himself with the handedness of the opposing team's starter when choosing what days to rest Avila. I think signing Pena pretty clearly shows that the team doesn't consider Avila someone who needs to be platooned. If they did, they would have found a platoon partner. Instead, they got a straight back-up -a cheap guy that can catch 40 games. If something happened to Avila, they'd put him on the DL and Pena and Holaday would carry the load and we'd have to temporarily get used to below-average offensive contribution from our catching core - which, as far as I know, is a pretty common ailment for MLB teams, haha. I certainly don't count on it making or breaking our season.
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01-04-2013, 01:22 PM #2995
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01-04-2013, 01:25 PM #2996
Couga....don't trust the source in this case....
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01-04-2013, 01:31 PM #2997
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How many teams in baseball have a significantly better bench? If there was a stockpile of these specialists laying around baseball, why is there absolutely nothing on the market.
Lets look just at our division. This is based on last years bench using a quick BB Ref look based on PA. Nothing exhaustive
Chicago
Wise sucks and is 34. I'd take Berry.
Hudson Sucks. No better than Santiago
Morel is no better than Worth.
Flowers is a decent upgrade over Pena.
Kansas City
Cain is better than Berry or Boesch
We acquired Pena
Bentancout = Santiago
If Getz is the actual backup IF he's alright. If he is still a "starter" that puts Giaovatelli as the backup and he stunk.
Minny
Casilla/Dozier.. whoever ends up winning, the other is right in the Santiago/Worth range.
Mastroianni is pretty close to Berry (he has a better glove, making him a better player), but he will be starting this year.
Florimon, Butera, Valencia are all terrible.
Cleveland
Marson is a pretty significant upgrade over Pena
Duncan is bad. I'd take Boesch or Berry
Jose Lopez. Again, no better than Santiago or Worth.
If you want to say Hanrahan is on the bench, he falls right into Santiago/Worth area... but he doesn't play SS/2B. Evaluate that how you will.
Looking around at the other 90 win AL teams
Oakland-
They started Weeks, Pennington and Inge. Weeks was a half a WAR player as starter. Pennington posted a 64 OPS+ (he was good defensiely, for the first time in his career). Inge couldn't make our team. Neither Kurt Suzuki or Derrick Norris are discernible from Pena.
New York-
Chris Stewart is Pena.
Andruw Jones was a 0.2 WAR player over 300 PA.
Nix is an upgrade over Santiago/Worth
If you want to count Ibanez as a bench player since they added Ichiro, he represents a significant upgrade over Boesh/Berry.
Baltimore-
I'll put Andino on their bench in favor of Machado. Andino managed 1.5 WAR over an entire season. Worth/Santiago numbers.
Endy Chavez. 40 OPS+
Ryan Flarhety. Negative WAR.
Thome and Nick Johnson combined for 200 quality ABs, but considering position et al, not an upgrade over Boesch.
Wieters played 144 games, he did not have a true backup. I'll take Pena over that quartet they put out.
Tampa-
Keppinger/Rodriguez are very good.
Lobaton is better than Pena
Roberts is Santiago/Worth.
Texas-
Gentry provides defense, putting him over Boesch/Berry.
Torrealba/Soto, no better than Pena.
Nobody else recorded over 100 PA. I'll take Santiago/Worth over the Gonzalez/Snyder conglomerate.
They also let Michael Young have 651 plate appearances with a sub .700 OPS in Arlington. Yea.
Anaheim-
Trumbo was better, but since they lost Hunter he'll start.
Pena is better than Wilson/Hester.
Izturis is marginal, at best, over Santiago/Worth
Boujos is an upgrade over Berry, I guess, pretty marginal.
The only bench clearly better is Tampa.
Oakland, New York and Anaheim are a little better.
Baltimore and Texas are both worse.
Cleveland is worse.
I would say Chicago, Minny and KC are about equal. I'd say a little worse, but I'm biased, so I'll say more or less equal.
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01-04-2013, 01:43 PM #2998
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
2013 AAT: Javier Betancourt
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01-04-2013, 01:46 PM #2999
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01-04-2013, 02:33 PM #3000
Speaking of B.INGE...where does he land this offseason?
1. His couch
2. someplace like Houston with a lot of glaring needs
3. coaching (although I wouldn't think this was in his future)"I remember the night they came for my father and mother. It was in the days when grain was plentiful ... we had eaten a simple meal of barley gruel on the porch. The car drove away into the night. I never saw them again ... ever again."
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