2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[sabretooth]

To be clearer, from a performance standpoint, Stanton from age 23 - 29 (2013 - 2020) is clearly capable of matching Cabrera's offensive production over the same age period (2005 - 2012), albeit likely with a lot fewer singles, quite a bit more EBH and a lot more K's than Cabrera. I also didn't realize that Stanton has very good defensive numbers (both UZR and DSR) in RF, supporting something like a plus 10-15 runs saved per year defensively, versus Cabrera's negative 5-10 average defensively.

It's likely that Cabrera from 2013 - 2020 will not be quite as productive as he was from 2005 - 2012. If Stanton matches what Cabrera has done, then it's also likely that he will be more productive that Cabrera from 2013 - 2020....throw in defense and Stanton's edge grows considerably for the next 8 years.

Add to the performance factor that likely dollar difference; Cabrera's likely over the next 8 years to command at least $175MM, whereas Stanton even with a pre-arbitration long-term deal will likely make way less.

So all things being equal, Stanton is likely to have at least the same or better performance as Cabrera over the next 8 years at a far reduced price. It would **seem** like a no-brainer **theoretically**.

OTOH, trading away the fan favorite MVP/TC hero would be a crushing blow for the Tigers from a PR standpoint. Furthermore, from a risk management standpoint, the AL-to-NL league switch would be the same problem for Stanton in the first year that it was for Cabrera and others. A one-year adjustment period combined with the status of being the guy they traded our MVP away for might be enough to turn media/fans against Stanton....which could impact his performance and development negatively.

I'd love to get Stanton and I think he'd be great, and in terms of production Stanton is probably going to be better over the coming years, but the risk PR-wise and otherwise would require balls of steel to make this deal...

[Yoda]

Remember, a lot of fans didn't like Cabrera the first year either. They were being completely irrational but those guys are still out there.

[ben9753]

It was also a potential PR disaster if the Tigers would ever trade away fan favorite Granderson. But they did, and most people were fine with it because they were able to see that the Tigers got cheap talent back. I think the whole PR thing is overrated, if you get comparable or better talent for less money, most people will recognize it as a prudent move that was done to help the team win. Of course, if its a risky move that's based on projecting a player fulfilling his potential, that's a different story, but right now Stanton is equal or greater than Cabrera in talent, and is much much cheaper. I don't think it would be a PR disaster at all. Of course, this is all theoretical (hypothetical? What's the difference?) because the Marlins don't want Cabreras contract. The real question, IMO is if you make the move with the Tigers paying all of Cabrera's contract. Now it's purely a player vs. player deal, and the question becomes a lot tougher.

[Gehringer_2]

It was also a potential PR disaster if the Tigers would ever trade away fan favorite Granderson. But they did, and most people were fine with it because they were able to see that the Tigers got cheap talent back. I think the whole PR thing is overrated, if you get comparable or better talent for less money, most people will recognize it as a prudent move that was done to help the team win. Of course, if its a risky move that's based on projecting a player fulfilling his potential, that's a different story, but right now Stanton is equal or greater than Cabrera in talent, and is much much cheaper. I don't think it would be a PR disaster at all. Of course, this is all theoretical (hypothetical? What's the difference?) because the Marlins don't want Cabreras contract. The real question, IMO is if you make the move with the Tigers paying all of Cabrera's contract. Now it's purely a player vs. player deal, and the question becomes a lot tougher.

I suppose a three way might be possible where we move Cabrera to a team who can pay him but isn't deep enough in prospects to make the Stanton deal themselves, they add some prospects to the package to the Marlins, we add the balance (Castellanos + Porcello or Smyly) to the package to get the Marlins to make deal.


In their history the Tigs have moved number of fan favorites; Harvery Keunn, Colavito, McLain, Granderson, and probably others that don't come to mind.

[Yoda]

Cody Ross...

[TigersSlappy]

I suppose a three way might be possible where we move Cabrera to a team who can pay him but isn't deep enough in prospects to make the Stanton deal themselves, they add some prospects to the package to the Marlins, we add the balance (Castellanos + Porcello or Smyly) to the package to get the Marlins to make deal.


In their history the Tigs have moved number of fan favorites; Harvery Keunn, Colavito, McLain, Granderson, and probably others that don't come to mind.

And again most people were ok with the McClain deal because they recognized it was time for him to go and we were getting talent in return. After all Aurelio was on his way to stardom!!

[EchO]

I probably would. Especially if I get to spend the difference in salary. Maybe you could then build a Headley trade around Castellanos and Porcello.

I would do all of that in an instant. If we could swing a trade for Headley + Gregerson (because I would rather have too many RHBP than not enough) we would have a stellar team.

Jackson - CF
Hunter - LF
Fielder - 1B
Stanton - RF
Martinez - DH
Headley - 3B
Peralta - SS
Avila - C
Infante - 2B

With the added defensive improvement and bullpen help I think the team would be better off now and in the future.

[Eric Cioe]

We're trading Cabrera now?

EDIT: Can we please not? I like that dude quite a bit.

[Gehringer_2]

We're trading Cabrera now?

EDIT: Can we please not? I like that dude quite a bit.

Nah, just thinking about how it could be done. My own belief has always been that a lot of good position players will beat a few great position players every-time.

Now with pitchers I'll take great every time since you can only use 4 starters in a play off anyway.

[IdahoBert]

I don't have the patience to read all the nearly 3000 posts in this thread to find the answer to one question; so please tell me what the general consensus is on the impact of VMart returning to the lineup? Will he be the same player he was before or will he decline? Will his impact be greater in relation to how dismal the DH spot was for the Tigers in 2012?

[Sven Draconian]

I don't have the patience to read all the nearly 3000 posts in this thread to find the answer to one question; so please tell me what the general consensus is on the impact of VMart returning to the lineup? Will he be the same player he was before or will he decline? Will his impact be greater in relation to how dismal the DH spot was for the Tigers in 2012?

My personal expectation would be something in the realm of .280/.350/.450. OPS 800. A little drop in average some extra walks. A few of those doubles carry out.

Maybe a bit more broad I think he'll fall between 2 and 2.5 WAR. Since Delmon was worth about -1 WAR, he represents an upgrade of about 3 wins.

[IdahoBert]

Thanks, Sven.

[sabretooth]

It was also a potential PR disaster if the Tigers would ever trade away fan favorite Granderson. But they did, and most people were fine with it because they were able to see that the Tigers got cheap talent back. I think the whole PR thing is overrated, if you get comparable or better talent for less money, most people will recognize it as a prudent move that was done to help the team win. Of course, if its a risky move that's based on projecting a player fulfilling his potential, that's a different story, but right now Stanton is equal or greater than Cabrera in talent, and is much much cheaper. I don't think it would be a PR disaster at all. Of course, this is all theoretical (hypothetical? What's the difference?) because the Marlins don't want Cabreras contract. The real question, IMO is if you make the move with the Tigers paying all of Cabrera's contract. Now it's purely a player vs. player deal, and the question becomes a lot tougher.

Bad comparison. They traded Granderson after a bad year, when most of the same people who were "fine with it" mistakenly thought that he was in "decline" (which he wasn't), and the Tigers had just missed the playoffs. Cabrera's coming off one of the better seasons in MLB history and a WS berth. A lot of folks on MTS pride themselves for spurning normal fan sentiment, so they would give such a trade a different hearing than most fans would simply because that's the nature of MTS.

I don't think for one second that most fans outside of MTS would embrace a trade of Cabrera even if it could be demonstrated to bring better value however construed. Most fans don't try to break down trades based strictly on value...it's a piece of their consideration, but emotions around MVP/TC Cabrera would blot out value considerations.

Frankly, I'm not sure that I would "like" the deal...it would be heartbreaking to lose a guy like Cabrera who has done so much, and in his own way overcome so many issues with this organization's help. I would be probably less accepting of such a trade than most people on MTS (despite my intellectual sense that it would be a no brainer, I feel like Cabrera's come into his own here in Detroit, and from a sentimental standpoint I'd like to see him retire in Detroit). At the same time, I think I would be a lot more accepting of such a deal than the vast majority of fans who don't post on MTS.

[sabretooth]

I don't have the patience to read all the nearly 3000 posts in this thread to find the answer to one question; so please tell me what the general consensus is on the impact of VMart returning to the lineup? Will he be the same player he was before or will he decline? Will his impact be greater in relation to how dismal the DH spot was for the Tigers in 2012?

2011 VMart: 90 Runs Created (600 PAs, 145 games)
2012 Elmon: 65 Runs Created (600 PAs)

VMart career: 720 RCs/4800 PAs

If Victor can remain healthy enough to play in 145 games and amass 600 PAs again, and hits nominally for his age, I would expect him to produce at least 80 RCs, maybe 90 again. That would be a +15 to +25 RC impact over Elmon. If Victor is not healthy, anything is possible (even, shudder, they bring back Elmon).

I didn't do exhaustive research, but after 30 minutes of looking at the list of all Comeback Award winners (as hitters) over the last 25 years, I found two examples of missed seasons with a full-year comeback in the season immediately following: Dave Winfield in 1990 (age 38) and Andres Gallaraga in 2000 (age 39)...Winfield went from great in 1988 to so-so in 1990, Galarraga went from great in 1998 to still really good in 2000. Several other comeback players missed seasons but had their great "comeback" years in other seasons...the other initial seasons are usually half-seasons for most guys I've seen (Winfield and Gallaraga are the exceptions).

For me it's a coin flip with VMart....which is one reason I'd like to see them get a RH LFer who can field and hit LHP but who can also be a reasonable full-time option should we lose VMart (or somebody else).

[Shelton]

I think most projections for victor are in the high 700s for ops. I think that is reasonable, but I think it is more likely that he exceeds that level than falls short. I would be more concerned with him missing a lot of time and tigers having a replacement level DH.

If victor plays a full (ish) season, it will make for a large improvement over delmon.

Couple that with improved production from 2b and rf, and likely bounce back seasons from catcher and ss, and the tigers offense should be substantially improved overall. Defense will be better as well.

I'm not seeing too many places where downward regression is likely. Cabrera won the triple crown but that wasn't even his best season. Prince was about as expected. Ajax might be the only one that will see his numbers drop, but maybe not. Dirks will probably fail to match his slash line.

Damn, the tigers are going to be good this year.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

2011 VMart: 90 Runs Created (600 PAs, 145 games)
2012 Elmon: 65 Runs Created (600 PAs)

VMart career: 720 RCs/4800 PAs

If Victor can remain healthy enough to play in 145 games and amass 600 PAs again, and hits nominally for his age, I would expect him to produce at least 80 RCs, maybe 90 again. That would be a +15 to +25 RC impact over Elmon.

I presume Victor would use fewer outs in those 600 PA than Elmn, though I haven't checked it. If so, that further increases his value relative to Elmn.

EDIT: If one thinks Victor would have a obp of 0.370 (career average) and Elmn 0.310 (probably a little optimistic based on recent seasons) in 2013, one would expect Victor to use 36 fewer outs over 600 PA. That is 1 and 1/3 games worth of outs. The Tigers scored 4.5 R/G last year, so 36 extra outs should be worth around 6 extra runs.

EDIT2: I know a lot of people have suggested Hunter should bat 2nd. I'd bat Martinez 2nd. FWIW.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Damn, the tigers are going to be good this year.

Injuries are really the only thing I fear. That and carnies.

[Gehringer_2]

I think most projections for victor are in the high 700s for ops. I think that is reasonable, but I think it is more likely that he exceeds that level than falls short. I would be more concerned with him missing a lot of time and tigers having a replacement level DH.

If victor plays a full (ish) season, it will make for a large improvement over delmon.

Couple that with improved production from 2b and rf, and likely bounce back seasons from catcher and ss, and the tigers offense should be substantially improved overall. Defense will be better as well.

I'm not seeing too many places where downward regression is likely. Cabrera won the triple crown but that wasn't even his best season. Prince was about as expected. Ajax might be the only one that will see his numbers drop, but maybe not. Dirks will probably fail to match his slash line.

Damn, the tigers are going to be good this year.

I'm just happy Delmon will not play one game in left field. Should be a nice boost for the Tiger team ERA.

[Just Some Dude]

I know a lot of people have suggested Hunter should bat 2nd. I'd bat Martinez 2nd. FWIW.

I'd also like to see Martinez batting 2nd. It's hard to say what Leyland will do but I doubt he puts 3 RH hitters in a row except against LHP.

R Jackson
S Martinez
R Cabrera
L Fielder
R Hunter
L Dirks
R Peralta
L Avila
R Infante

[sabretooth]

If VMart, Avila and Infante struggle with injuries/recovery, we could be seeing hundreds of PAs added to very marginal players like Berry, Santiago, Kobernus and Pena. Injuries are a pretty serious concern, and frankly DD has done little or nothing this off-season to provide any sort of positional depth on the roster.

Is DD counting on Avisail and/or Nick C as the backup plans should VMart go down? Either one might provide decent fill-in production (or even better), but I am still concerned that overplaying either one in 2013 will stunt their natural development.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

The bench is the Tigers achilles heel.

[Yoda]

I think most projections for victor are in the high 700s for ops. I think that is reasonable, but I think it is more likely that he exceeds that level than falls short. I would be more concerned with him missing a lot of time and tigers having a replacement level DH.

If victor plays a full (ish) season, it will make for a large improvement over delmon.

Couple that with improved production from 2b and rf, and likely bounce back seasons from catcher and ss, and the tigers offense should be substantially improved overall. Defense will be better as well.

I'm not seeing too many places where downward regression is likely. Cabrera won the triple crown but that wasn't even his best season. Prince was about as expected. Ajax might be the only one that will see his numbers drop, but maybe not. Dirks will probably fail to match his slash line.

Damn, the tigers are going to be good this year.

What's really scary is adding that to what could be the best rotation we've ever seen in Detroit. Certainly one of the tops in the AL. Barring a lot of injuries or players declining, it's hard to not predict a lot of wins.

[pyrotigers]

Kobernus is so ludicrously bad I have to think he'll be headed back to Washington before spring training is over. Of course, that leaves them giving PAs to 'some random guy' at this point. Really would like to see them sign a decent bench infielder.

[IdahoBert]

2011 VMart: 90 Runs Created (600 PAs, 145 games)
2012 Elmon: 65 Runs Created (600 PAs)...

I think most projections for victor are in the high 700s for ops. I think that is reasonable, but I think it is more likely that he exceeds that level than falls short. I would be more concerned with him missing a lot of time and tigers having a replacement level DH.

If victor plays a full (ish) season, it will make for a large improvement over delmon...Damn, the tigers are going to be good this year.

I presume Victor would use fewer outs in those 600 PA than Elmn, though I haven't checked it. If so, that further increases his value relative to Elmn.

EDIT: If one thinks Victor would have a obp of 0.370 (career average) and Elmn 0.310 (probably a little optimistic based on recent seasons) in 2013, one would expect Victor to use 36 fewer outs over 600 PA. That is 1 and 1/3 games worth of outs. The Tigers scored 4.5 R/G last year, so 36 extra outs should be worth around 6 extra runs.

EDIT2: I know a lot of people have suggested Hunter should bat 2nd. I'd bat Martinez 2nd. FWIW.

Thank you so much. It is great to be able to garner such insights so easily from people I respect. You all get contract extensions!

[IdahoBert]

What's really scary is adding that to what could be the best rotation we've ever seen in Detroit. Certainly one of the tops in the AL. Barring a lot of injuries or players declining, it's hard to not predict a lot of wins.

I have arrived at this same conclusion in previous seasons and have lived to see my hopes shattered by injuries and inexplicable under-performances (as Yoda says). But it sure looks like it could be a perfect storm of greatness for the Tigers this coming season. So much for my ten cents of wooden nickels.

[sabretooth]

I have arrived at this same conclusion in previous seasons and have lived to see my hopes shattered by injuries and inexplicable under-performances (as Yoda says). But it sure looks like it could be a perfect storm of greatness for the Tigers this coming season. So much for my ten cents of wooden nickels.

VMart is the obvious big question mark, but although their bullpen has some nice arms and some nice performances in 2011 and 2012, I'm not sold on it at this point.

The best teams can throw 3-4 stoppers at you out of the 'pen, and the Tigers have enough guys that can have that kind of season, but they all have question marks heading into 2013: Benoit - HRs, Al Al - injuries, Coke - control/inconsistency, Villareal - control, inexperience, Dotel - great 2012, but ageless?, Smyly - injuries, inexperience.

Not to mention it remains to be seen how Jimmy juggles the arms -- the Tigers' bullpen ERA has been consistently unimpressive (to downright poor) over the years under Jimmy...at least Valverde won't be an option (anyway I hope not).

[Buddha]

The bench is the Tigers achilles heel.

I think the bullpen is their Achilles heel. but bullpens are notoriously fickle, so who knows?

[Yoda]

I have arrived at this same conclusion in previous seasons and have lived to see my hopes shattered by injuries and inexplicable under-performances (as Yoda says). But it sure looks like it could be a perfect storm of greatness for the Tigers this coming season. So much for my ten cents of wooden nickels.

They're coming off a season where they largely underperformed, especially in the first half. They're due to swing the other way this year. In contrast, the WSox had just about everything go right for them last year so they're due a swing in the other direction.

[Yoda]

I think the bullpen is their Achilles heel. but bullpens are notoriously fickle, so who knows?

The Tigers bullpen was above average last year, and I don't see any reason it would be worse this year.

[sabretooth]

The Tigers bullpen was above average last year, and I don't see any reason it would be worse this year.

Serious question: based on what?

[Yoda]

Based only on being 5th in the AL in ERA (I hate ERA for individual relievers but it is useful for the bullpen as a whole) and 3rd in WHIP. They were right in the middle of the pack in FIP and WAR. As with everything it depends on what you choose to look at.

Improved team defense should help them as well as another year experience by guys like Villareal and Smyly/Porcello and possibly having Al Al for a full year... I also don't put much weight into what Benoit did last year. He pitched great other than giving up an absolutely flukey amount of homeruns (k/9 was 2nd highest of career and hits were right on par) and I don't think that will repeat itself.

Either way, it's hard to look at the bullpen and think it'll be anywhere near as bad as the atrocious bench the Tigers will have.

[Nastradamus]

I don't have the patience to read all the nearly 3000 posts in this thread to find the answer to one question; so please tell me what the general consensus is on the impact of VMart returning to the lineup? Will he be the same player he was before or will he decline? Will his impact be greater in relation to how dismal the DH spot was for the Tigers in 2012?

One thing worth noting is that Victor has a much higher OPS when he DHs compared to when he catches all or part of the time. He won't be catching any this year, so I think that could help him a lot. I think he's a solid bet for at least an 825 OPS. We'll see.

[Sven Draconian]

Based only on being 5th in the AL in ERA (I hate ERA for individual relievers but it is useful for the bullpen as a whole) and 3rd in WHIP. They were right in the middle of the pack in FIP and WAR. As with everything it depends on what you choose to look at.

Improved team defense should help them as well as another year experience by guys like Villareal and Smyly/Porcello and possibly having Al Al for a full year... I also don't put much weight into what Benoit did last year. He pitched great other than giving up an absolutely flukey amount of homeruns (k/9 was 2nd highest of career and hits were right on par) and I don't think that will repeat itself.

Either way, it's hard to look at the bullpen and think it'll be anywhere near as bad as the atrocious bench the Tigers will have.

While I do not think the Tigers have a good bench, I really don't think it's as bad as you are making it sound. Just taking the bench as of now....

Pena - Run of the mill backup C
Boesch - Pretty average backup OF.
Santiago - A little below average backup IF.
Worth/Kobernaus - Below average backup IF
Berry - Average(ish) 5th OF.

Those 6 in whatever arrangement should be our bench for most of the season (unless they get that often talked about RH OF).

Obviously Santiago was horrendous last season, but I assume he'll bounce back, or simply get replaced by Worth.

Boesch is another bounce back candidate. Without being a starter he can be protected easier. I think it's reasonable to expect him to OBP in the .330 range with an OPS around .750.

Berry as a 4th/5th OF isn't a bad player. No question he's a weak hitter, but he draws some walk and his incredible speed and base stealing ability provide good value. He struggled in center in a full-time role, but I think he's a decent enough defender (not good, but reasonable).

Obviously I'd like to see them add an extra OF (bye bye Boesch) , but I really don't see the OF bench as a weakness. The IF bench is a little more concerning, but I'm a little more optimistic with Worth then most (I guess).

[Gehringer_2]

While I do not think the Tigers have a good bench, I really don't think it's as bad as you are making it sound. Just taking the bench as of now....

Pena - Run of the mill backup C
Boesch - Pretty average backup OF.
Santiago - A little below average backup IF.
Worth/Kobernaus - Below average backup IF
Berry - Average(ish) 5th OF.

Those 6 in whatever arrangement should be our bench for most of the season (unless they get that often talked about RH OF).

Obviously Santiago was horrendous last season, but I assume he'll bounce back, or simply get replaced by Worth.

Boesch is another bounce back candidate. Without being a starter he can be protected easier. I think it's reasonable to expect him to OBP in the .330 range with an OPS around .750.

Berry as a 4th/5th OF isn't a bad player. No question he's a weak hitter, but he draws some walk and his incredible speed and base stealing ability provide good value. He struggled in center in a full-time role, but I think he's a decent enough defender (not good, but reasonable).

Obviously I'd like to see them add an extra OF (bye bye Boesch) , but I really don't see the OF bench as a weakness. The IF bench is a little more concerning, but I'm a little more optimistic with Worth then most (I guess).

I'd like to see how well Kobernus fields 2B. If his glove is strong, or if Santiago comes back (which I'll have to see to believe), then I am not too worried.

[ballmich]

EDIT2: I know a lot of people have suggested Hunter should bat 2nd. I'd bat Martinez 2nd. FWIW.

Yeah, maybe. But we know that Leyland would never contemplate that, so it's rather moot.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

While I do not think the Tigers have a good bench, I really don't think it's as bad as you are making it sound. Just taking the bench as of now....

Pena - Run of the mill backup C
Boesch - Pretty average backup OF.
Santiago - A little below average backup IF.
Worth/Kobernaus - Below average backup IF
Berry - Average(ish) 5th OF.

Those 6 in whatever arrangement should be our bench for most of the season (unless they get that often talked about RH OF).

Obviously Santiago was horrendous last season, but I assume he'll bounce back, or simply get replaced by Worth.

Boesch is another bounce back candidate. Without being a starter he can be protected easier. I think it's reasonable to expect him to OBP in the .330 range with an OPS around .750.

Berry as a 4th/5th OF isn't a bad player. No question he's a weak hitter, but he draws some walk and his incredible speed and base stealing ability provide good value. He struggled in center in a full-time role, but I think he's a decent enough defender (not good, but reasonable).

Obviously I'd like to see them add an extra OF (bye bye Boesch) , but I really don't see the OF bench as a weakness. The IF bench is a little more concerning, but I'm a little more optimistic with Worth then most (I guess).

The problem with the bench is that none of those guys should be counted on to provide 200 - 300 AB in the case of injury, and there really isn't depth in the minors to address injury except maybe OF.

[ballmich]

The bench is the Tigers achilles heel.

It's certainly a weak spot, and interesting (or maybe just frustrating) that we don't ever seem to address this long standing issue. I wonder if it's a function of having a very top heavy payroll? Although we weren't always so top heavy, yet for the last 15 years have consistently had a very weak bench.

In part, I guess I would blame the minor league system or the organizations ability to develop players that would fill these roles.

[Yoda]

The problem with the bench is that none of those guys should be counted on to provide 200 - 300 AB in the case of injury, and there really isn't depth in the minors to address injury except maybe OF.

And Boesch won't have a .330 OBP and .750 OPS. I think that's being a little optimistic.

[Gehringer_2]

And Boesch won't have a .330 OBP and .750 OPS. I think that's being a little optimistic.

OTOH, with Berry and Dirks as LH OF now in front of him, I would hope we don't see Boesch get any ABs outside Toledo unless he starts hitting the ball with that kind of frequency. Of course you never know. If he hits 200 with the Hens but puts a few over the fence JL will probably start lobbying to have him - or worse he will have another hot ST and make the team then promptly go back into the tank.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

I just get the sense they don't view it as important.

Or I suppose it could be something the manager is given authority over, and managers are looking for certain personalities for bench players rather than specific skill sets that fit the teams needs.

I do think a small investment on an improved bench would be a good idea, if for no other reason to provide a form of insurance against injury and to give Jim some arrows in his quiver late in the game.