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  1. #2641
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    Quote Originally Posted by clemma View Post
    Giving up your 5th best starting pitcher for a backup/ platoon OF is stupid, particularly when we have no starting pitcher depth in the minors.
    But they also have a need for good bench players, and depth. After watching the World Series it was obvious they needed more speed, defense, and a better bench. Might be stupid to ignore that.

  2. #2642
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJBBREZ View Post
    But they also have a need for good bench players, and depth. After watching the World Series it was obvious they needed more speed, defense, and a better bench. Might be stupid to ignore that.
    Those are positions fillable via free agency
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cioe View Post
    Isn't trading Jackson for a SS kind of filling one hole by creating another?
    In a vacume yes but I was just blue skying trading Procello for Bourjous and then wondering if trading Jackson for a top notch shortstop would make sense. Both CF and SS filled with the best or near best defenders.

  4. #2644
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    I would bet good money that Porcello won't ever be much better than he is. It would be one thing if he had good stuff and just needed to learn to harness it like Scherzer, but I don't see it. I also don't think he has stamina issues so much as he just can't keep hitters off balance; after one or two times through the order the hitters can just dial in.

    As for the concerns of starting pitching depth, couldn't that argument be made about other areas of the team? Especially if anyone in the infield got injured for a significant amount of time, there is no one you'd like to see fill in for more than a few games. That concerns me more than who the fith starter is...this team managed to win 95 games two years ago with Brad Penny in the rotation and he was just about as awful as you can get.

  5. #2645
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    Quote Originally Posted by C03BRA View Post
    Those are positions fillable via free agency
    Doesn't seem that way, because none of them have been addressed.

  6. #2646
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    Its really sounding like they might offer Trumbo. If thats the case, it would be a pretty epic move

  7. #2647
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    Its really sounding like they might offer Trumbo. If thats the case, it would be a pretty epic move
    Not sure where you are hearing that. It would be an awesome move, though. I would assume that Trumbo would get the Lion's share of the time in LF with Dirks to bench status. He is a bad fielders, but with Jackson in CF and Hunter in RF I think they could make it work.

  8. #2648
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fig Newton View Post
    I would bet good money that Porcello won't ever be much better than he is. It would be one thing if he had good stuff and just needed to learn to harness it like Scherzer, but I don't see it. I also don't think he has stamina issues so much as he just can't keep hitters off balance; after one or two times through the order the hitters can just dial in.

    As for the concerns of starting pitching depth, couldn't that argument be made about other areas of the team? Especially if anyone in the infield got injured for a significant amount of time, there is no one you'd like to see fill in for more than a few games. That concerns me more than who the fith starter is...this team managed to win 95 games two years ago with Brad Penny in the rotation and he was just about as awful as you can get.
    Stamina has got to be an issue.

    I'd agree with you if his velocity stayed consistent, but the fact that it continually falls off after 75 pitches suggest a stamina issue.

  9. #2649
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    Mark Trumbo scares me. I see visions of the next Delmon Young, just with a bit more power. Trumbo's best OBP season was .317 last year. Coincidentally that's also Delmon Young's career OBP. Not sure I'd want to trade Porcello for another subpar defensive OF who has minimal OBP skills. The really scary part is that as free-swinging as Delmon is, he isn't anywhere close to Trumbo's K rate. Trumbo seems like the wrong type of player we should be trying to acquire for a team already filled with similar guys. His only real asset is HR power. Everything else he's adequate to very poor.
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  10. #2650
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fig Newton View Post
    I would bet good money that Porcello won't ever be much better than he is.
    Porcello keeps getting better year after year if you look at the peripherals. But he relies a lot on ground balls, and the Tigers' infield defense gets worse and worse with each passing year.

    Porcello did show many encouraging signs last year as well, including increased use of his 4-seamer, which touched 95, increased velocity on his 2-seamer, and the best K/BB ratio and K rate of his career. I actually think he is a good breakout candidate if we can put a decent infield defense behind him. He retains the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter.

    And people always forget that he was younger last year than when most pitchers break into the league for their first time.

    Having Infante all year over Raburn will help him considerably. If we could just flip Peralta for someone with range, I think you'd see Porcello put up at least a sub-4 ERA next year.
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  11. #2651
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCouga View Post
    Porcello keeps getting better year after year if you look at the peripherals. But he relies a lot on ground balls, and the Tigers' infield defense gets worse and worse with each passing year.

    Porcello did show many encouraging signs last year as well, including increased use of his 4-seamer, which touched 95, increased velocity on his 2-seamer, and the best K/BB ratio and K rate of his career. I actually think he is a good breakout candidate if we can put a decent infield defense behind him. He retains the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter.

    And people always forget that he was younger last year than when most pitchers break into the league for their first time.

    Having Infante all year over Raburn will help him considerably. If we could just flip Peralta for someone with range, I think you'd see Porcello put up at least a sub-4 ERA next year.
    Porcello had an average BABIP on ground balls. Don't know why everyone thinks that suddenly a shortstop would lower his ERA considerably.

  12. #2652
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    Porcello was always one to induce ground balls. That was his initial talent and his cutter which he seldom threw in the minors.
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  13. #2653
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    Porcello had an average BABIP on ground balls. Don't know why everyone thinks that suddenly a shortstop would lower his ERA considerably.
    Porcello's BABIP over the last 4 years:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-co...cellobabip.png

    If that rise was comprised of all non ground balls, that's even more reason to think last year was a fluke.
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  14. #2654
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCouga View Post
    Porcello's BABIP over the last 4 years:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-co...cellobabip.png

    If that rise was comprised of all non ground balls, that's even more reason to think last year was a fluke.
    I understand that his BABIP is high. However, it was only .245 on ground balls last year. Average is around .240. You'd be able to make a better case if you cited 2011, which was .276. It was .245 in 2010, and in 2009 it was .206. Add all of those together, you get .243 BABIP on ground balls for his career. Exactly the league average. Point is, defense isn't going to solve the problem. He wasn't unlucky last season, nor has he really been his entire career. He gives up a lot of ground balls and line drives, as opposed to fly balls. Line drives and ground balls are much more likely to fall for hits. In 2012, Rick gave up a 24.2% line drive rate, good for 4th worst (most line drives) among qualified starters. Of anyone in the bottom 40 of line drive rate, he gave up more ground balls than anyone else, too.

    Let me put it simply, when 77% of balls put in play against you are line drives and ground balls, you're going to give up a lot of hits. I don't care if you have a team full of Brendan Ryan's out there.

    Porcello has problems because he gives up a lot of hard hit balls, has no put away pitch (fangraphs ranks his slider was the single worst pitch in baseball last year by a considerable margin), and can't get any left handers out. It's no fluke. Until he gets left handers out, he will never be effective. Last two years he's had .883 and .857 OPS against them. His BABIP and peripherals are irrelevant if he cannot overcome that problem.
    Last edited by alwaysthrowheat; 12-17-2012 at 04:44 AM.

  15. #2655
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    While Peralta doesn't make many plays that he shouldn't, he does make almost every play that he should.
    Peralta is kindof like McDonalds food....... You don't have to like it, but you know what you're gonna get.

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    listening to MLB radio on the XM this morning. They couldn't figure out who was going to finish last in the AL East. Why? Because their heads would explode if they actually did admit that Boston and NY are looking to be strong candidates for the cellar.

    Not that Toronto's a finished product yet. They have a lot of integration to do with all that Marlins influx. RA Dickey could be over-matched in the AL, Buerhle could be done like dinner.

    Baltimore didnt' sign much or trade for much that I can think of...were they a finished product?

    But, my gut tells me that despite having multiple stars, the Yankees are going to be a flying on 2-3 engines most of the season.
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  17. #2657
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    Quote Originally Posted by roarintiger1 View Post
    While Peralta doesn't make many plays that he shouldn't, he does make almost every play that he should.
    .
    except for double plays.
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  18. #2658
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    Stephen Drew to the Red Sox for one year, $9.5M.

  19. #2659
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    Quote Originally Posted by roarintiger1 View Post
    While Peralta doesn't make many plays that he shouldn't, he does make almost every play that he should.
    Peralta is kindof like McDonalds food....... You don't have to like it, but you know what you're gonna get.
    Exactly. I wonder if part of what make people think Peralta is not as good as he probably is follows from his raw range factor numbers in Detroit being below average. But when you are considering *raw* range numbers, you have to realize that the Tigers, with no full time left hand starters over Jhonny's time here (Coke and Smyly have totaled 32 starts out of over 300 games JP has played in Det), and a division full of LH hitters, have actually faced more left handed hitters than right in aggregate over both of the last two seasons. The average shortstop in the majors is playing behind closer to two left handed starters on average and faces more RH batters on average. So the Tiger shortstop *should* have lower than average raw range factors. Could be why there is such a disconnect between his UZR, which counts his plays against balls actually in zone, vs his simple range factor, which is just total plays per game.
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  20. #2660
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    except for double plays.
    I think it was more Santiago who killed a good number of possible DPs last season.
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  21. #2661
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gehringer_2 View Post
    I think it was more Santiago who killed a good number of possible DPs last season.
    None of Peralta, Santiago or Infante did us favors in the DP department last season.
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  22. #2662
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    Quote Originally Posted by ROMAD1 View Post
    listening to MLB radio on the XM this morning. They couldn't figure out who was going to finish last in the AL East. Why? Because their heads would explode if they actually did admit that Boston and NY are looking to be strong candidates for the cellar.

    Not that Toronto's a finished product yet. They have a lot of integration to do with all that Marlins influx. RA Dickey could be over-matched in the AL, Buerhle could be done like dinner.

    Baltimore didnt' sign much or trade for much that I can think of...were they a finished product?

    But, my gut tells me that despite having multiple stars, the Yankees are going to be a flying on 2-3 engines most of the season.
    Baltimore's an easy pick for last IMO. I think Tampa finishes 4th. THe Yanks and Sox are down, but they still have quite a bit of talent each. Toronto looks good, but has to show me something too.

  24. #2664
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gehringer_2 View Post
    I think it was more Santiago who killed a good number of possible DPs last season.
    Second base was a big problem, but I think Peralta's soft tossing hurt them quite a bit too.
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  25. #2665
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    Pena just signed a 1 year contract with the Astro's for 2.9M. Also they are rumored to want Berkman back in the fold as their DH.
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  26. #2666
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    I understand that his BABIP is high. However, it was only .245 on ground balls last year. Average is around .240. You'd be able to make a better case if you cited 2011, which was .276. It was .245 in 2010, and in 2009 it was .206. Add all of those together, you get .243 BABIP on ground balls for his career. Exactly the league average. Point is, defense isn't going to solve the problem. He wasn't unlucky last season, nor has he really been his entire career. He gives up a lot of ground balls and line drives, as opposed to fly balls. Line drives and ground balls are much more likely to fall for hits. In 2012, Rick gave up a 24.2% line drive rate, good for 4th worst (most line drives) among qualified starters. Of anyone in the bottom 40 of line drive rate, he gave up more ground balls than anyone else, too.

    Let me put it simply, when 77% of balls put in play against you are line drives and ground balls, you're going to give up a lot of hits. I don't care if you have a team full of Brendan Ryan's out there.

    Porcello has problems because he gives up a lot of hard hit balls, has no put away pitch (fangraphs ranks his slider was the single worst pitch in baseball last year by a considerable margin), and can't get any left handers out. It's no fluke. Until he gets left handers out, he will never be effective. Last two years he's had .883 and .857 OPS against them. His BABIP and peripherals are irrelevant if he cannot overcome that problem.
    All the stats in the world won't convince me that our infield defense got to as many ground balls as it should have when Porcello was pitching this year.
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  27. #2667
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCouga View Post
    Porcello keeps getting better year after year if you look at the peripherals. But he relies a lot on ground balls, and the Tigers' infield defense gets worse and worse with each passing year.

    Porcello did show many encouraging signs last year as well, including increased use of his 4-seamer, which touched 95, increased velocity on his 2-seamer, and the best K/BB ratio and K rate of his career. I actually think he is a good breakout candidate if we can put a decent infield defense behind him. He retains the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter.

    And people always forget that he was younger last year than when most pitchers break into the league for their first time.

    Having Infante all year over Raburn will help him considerably. If we could just flip Peralta for someone with range, I think you'd see Porcello put up at least a sub-4 ERA next year.
    I have to disagree. While a better defense would help, I don't see the potential for major improvement due to better defense -- marginal/significant, yes, maybe saving 5 runs or something, but better infield defense could not alone cause his ERA to drop below 4 IMHO.

    His BABIP on groundballs was .245 in 2012, nearly identical to his career average on groundballs and also with the league average groundball BABIP...groundball errors and double-plays were also pretty equivalent to his own 2009, 2010, 2011 totals. These stats would seem to shoot a hole through the argument that bad infield defense caused him trouble in 2012.

    It's true that in 2009 his groundball BABIP was only .206, but virtually no pitcher regardless of defense sustains such a low groundball BABIP over multiple seasons, so that was likely a lucky fluke, and a large part of the reason why he lucked his way into his **only** season to date where he had an ERA below 4.50 and fewer than 100 runs.
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  28. #2668
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    Baltimore's an easy pick for last IMO. I think Tampa finishes 4th. THe Yanks and Sox are down, but they still have quite a bit of talent each. Toronto looks good, but has to show me something too.
    Baltimore's bullpen carried a lot of water for them last year. That is a recipe for backsliding.

    Red Sox will be interesting.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    Baltimore's an easy pick for last IMO. I think Tampa finishes 4th. THe Yanks and Sox are down, but they still have quite a bit of talent each. Toronto looks good, but has to show me something too.
    Yeah, Baltimore is pretty easy for last, certainly NY is not a candidate for last place unless a lot of things go wrong.

    I think Tampa takes the division, they have more talent than either the Yankees or the Sox..

  30. #2670
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCouga View Post
    All the stats in the world won't convince me that our infield defense got to as many ground balls as it should have when Porcello was pitching this year.
    So essentially you make a comment, I refute it with statistics and facts, and you just get to say "no stats will convince me" after trying to use stats to support your own argument? Okay.

  31. #2671
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    Quote Originally Posted by zimm View Post
    well, you did ask. then i gave you an plausable answer which you incorrectly dismissed. now you're saying it won't happen, so we can't talk about it.

    nice work there.
    The thing is I don't think it is plausible. I'd bet that if we offered Texas Jackson for Profar straight up they'd say no. I asked what SS we could possibly get.. I guess we can agree to disagree on what is actually possible. We will never know :)

  32. #2672
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabretooth View Post
    I have to disagree. While a better defense would help, I don't see the potential for major improvement due to better defense -- marginal/significant, yes, maybe saving 5 runs or something, but better infield defense could not alone cause his ERA to drop below 4 IMHO.

    His BABIP on groundballs was .245 in 2012, nearly identical to his career average on groundballs and also with the league average groundball BABIP...groundball errors and double-plays were also pretty equivalent to his own 2009, 2010, 2011 totals. These stats would seem to shoot a hole through the argument that bad infield defense caused him trouble in 2012.

    It's true that in 2009 his groundball BABIP was only .206, but virtually no pitcher regardless of defense sustains such a low groundball BABIP over multiple seasons, so that was likely a lucky fluke, and a large part of the reason why he lucked his way into his **only** season to date where he had an ERA below 4.50 and fewer than 100 runs.
    Agree. The root of RPs problem is not the IF, it's that he gets hit too hard, especially by lefthanders, and he is playing in a division that can throw more LHB than RHB at him.

    He is what he is as a sinker pitcher, which is plateaued. Now whether given the basic quality of the arm, Jeff Jones or some other coach might still completely re-arrange him into something more effective - I think that is still at least a debatable question. But without a major rework of his game I don't see him getting different results.

    And looking back at his FX charts, it's interesting to note that in this rookie year his FB had good rise to it, probably part of what made the sinker so effective. Since then the vertical on his 4 seamer has disappeared, and even though Jones helped him bring the mph back last season, the break did not come back with it. His FB was still flat compared to 2009.
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  33. #2673
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCouga View Post
    All the stats in the world won't convince me that our infield defense got to as many ground balls as it should have when Porcello was pitching this year.
    Two thoughts:

    a. This is a cop-out, IMHO, and

    b. the data suggests the extent to which infielders didn't get to ground balls did not hurt him nearly as much as you think.

  34. #2674
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    Well if that report was true that DD got 12 phone calls about Porcello the 1st day then it's not if he's traded, it's when. Somewhere in all those teams there's a match to be made. The Tigers have too many possible trade pieces not to have something come together. Porcello, Peralta, Boesch, Wilk, Below, Crosby, Garcia, Castellanos.....just depends on how big the deal gets.
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    Other than stamina and life on the fastball, the other thing that keeps Porcello firmly in the back-of-the-pack is his lack of a good slider. He throws it 15-20% of the time, but it's usually a filler pitch. If his slider had good bite, he could increase his K-rate substantially and would probably be a good pitcher, albiet without the kind of stamina you'd like to see. It could still happen, as could the stamina, but I'm not counting on it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabretooth View Post
    Other than stamina and life on the fastball, the other thing that keeps Porcello firmly in the back-of-the-pack is his lack of a good slider. He throws it 15-20% of the time, but it's usually a filler pitch. If his slider had good bite, he could increase his K-rate substantially and would probably be a good pitcher, albiet without the kind of stamina you'd like to see. It could still happen, as could the stamina, but I'm not counting on it.
    His slider was worth -19 runs according to fangraphs. Easily the worst pitch in baseball.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerNation View Post
    Yeah, Baltimore is pretty easy for last, certainly NY is not a candidate for last place unless a lot of things go wrong.

    I think Tampa takes the division, they have more talent than either the Yankees or the Sox..
    NY has a lot of talent (Cano, Granderson, Texiera, Sabathia, and the aging husks of Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Ichiro, Pettitte).
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    His slider was worth -19 runs according to fangraphs. Easily the worst pitch in baseball.
    Yup. I have a fantasy that he gets traded and a Leo Mazzone type converts him to a successful FB/curve pitcher.

    Though in Porcello's defense, the big problem with any breaking ball he throws is that even with reasonable bite, he is throwing them off a sinker from which there is almost no vertical contrast. With the way his pitches move, he isn't effective with a slider or a change for that matter, throwing them off his sinker - because everything is ending up too close to the same plane. He could try to throw the slider with more bite, use a deeper breaking curve, or on the other side, recover the life of his 2009 fastball. But somehow he needs to get more vertical difference across his repertoire. You need the ball to either go up or down wrt expectation to get swings and misses.
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    This team clearly on paper could win 100 games without a lot of surprises, the difficulty is that they have done nothing to add positional depth. In fact, if you tried to construct a positional bench at this point, they would arguably be worse than they were at the beginning of 2012 -- at least in terms of what we thought we had on the bench coming out of ST vs. what we know we have now.

    At the beginning of 2012 we didn't yet realize that Santiago and Raburn had already lost all assemblage of baseball ability, which left the bench basically devoid of a solid IF backup option...and that Kelly would go from a guy with versatile defense and the ability to be solidly above replacement level against RHP to basically non-existent hitting wise.

    Laird did the best he could, but still couldn't help provide platoon help for the struggling Avila, and we arguably have downgraded the backup catcher slot (hard to believe). Berry has at least given us an option for late-inning baserunning, that's an improvement of sorts.

    Otherwise, entering 2013, our bench is quite poor at this point IMHO.

    The frustrating thing is that I don't think it would take much to make our bench a plus....the nice thing about benches is that they are fairly customized, so while everybody's competing for similar skills, the bench players that would best fill our needs in 2013 aren't necessarily at the top of other team's lists. If we go into 2013 with Berry as our lone 4th OF option and and Boesch as our full-time injury replacement option, when we probably could have Casper Wells for not-very-much-indeed, I would be unhappy.

    I realize I'm repeating earlier posts, but for those who might be unclear on my preferred solution, I'd prefer to have Berry in the minors just in case, ditch Boesch, and have a guy with definite plus defense skills at all 3 OF positions, and with the proven plus ability to hit LHP (Wells), while being a decent full-time option if needed for a spell.
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    The lack of position depth could loom large if, for example, VMart and Dirks struggle. The ability to bring a guy off the bench who can hit and field decently is a huge plus in that situation vs. praying that Berry can have another lucky month like he did in June 2012. Over a 20-game injury stretch, the difference in terms of hitting between a decent replacement and a black hole replacement could be easily 5 runs, possibly even 10, enough to make a real dent.

    I'm still hoping that DD bucks his history and actually finds a good bench guy or two. I'm thinking one good bench addition is a decent possibility.
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