2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[TheCouga]

Better than even money says DD is trying to acquire Matt Garza.

I'm not in favor of trading for Garza when we can just sign him as a free agent a year from now. Yeah, we'll lose a draft pick because I'm sure he'll get a qualifying offer, but that's a detriment that has effects far into the future.

I'm actually starting to lean toward keeping Porcello right now, because I think his stock is actually low at this point. I still think he has decent upside, and he's about the age right now when a lot of pitchers first break into the league.

The only way I'd trade him is if we could get a somewhat younger middle infielder in return, because we have mediocre short-term options and zero long-term options there.

[PuNk42AE]

Sounds like the Red Sox could be in on FA Pitching now. Also depending on whatever problem is holding up the Napoli deal, they are probably the new #1 against Sanchez coming back to the Tigers.

[4hzglory]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have an offer of something like Garcia and Porcello for Dickey. Then sign Dickey to the 2 year $26 mil extension he is asking for. You get Dickey for a total of 3 years $31 mil which saves significant $ over Sanchez, not to mention years. Even if Dickey is the Dickey of 2011 and not 2012, it gives a solid rotation for the next 3 seasons. Not to mention the change of pace. If he would be the Dickey of 2012, it gives us 3 of the top K guys in baseball.

However, I don't know if there would be a better offer than those 2, and I would assume it would be a 3 team deal as I don't think the Mets have a lot of need for Porcello.

[roarintiger1]

Any way you slice it, the Reds now have a very good outfield.....Choo, Ludwick, and Bruce. Hello NL Central champs..........

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Any way you slice it, the Reds now have a very good outfield.....Choo, Ludwick, and Bruce. Hello NL Central champs..........

I think I will disagree here.

1. The Reds really don't have a centerfielder.
2. Jay Bruce wasn't anything special in 2011 or 2012. He should be entering his hitting prime, though.
3. Ryan Ludwick basically posted an OPS+ of 100 from 2009-2011. He hit reasonably well 2012, but he will be 34 and I don't know what to expect.
4. I love Choo. Not going to bag on him.

[tiger337]

I don't think the Reds have a great outfield, but they do have a very good and well balanced team. They should be one of the best teams in the majors for the next couple of years.

[ballmich]

I can see it now. DD signs Delmon to a cheap contract in February after Young figures out that nobody else wants to give him a full-time job. The plan is to platoon Young with Dirks which isn't a terrible thing (offensively). Then Martinez re-injures his knee in spring training and Delmon becomes the full-time DH.

I could see that. Is it any worse than if we didn't sign Young and Martinez injured his kneed in ST? In that scenario, I presume the DH would rotate a bit, but that Boesch probably projects to grab most of the PA's.

[ballmich]

Fabulous deal for Cleveland. Choo was under team control for one more year. In return, they got Drew Stubbs, Trevor Bauer and two relievers.

Well, they did give up Sipp, so they are only up Net one reliever.

Personally, I'm glad Cleveland made this trade, I think it helps us over the short run. But I don't think much of Bauer and the likelihood that he develops into a good SP is pretty small. Low Probability, High Upside guy. And Stubbs... that can only help us if he is in the line-up on a daily basis.

[ballmich]

Sounds like the Red Sox could be in on FA Pitching now. Also depending on whatever problem is holding up the Napoli deal, they are probably the new #1 against Sanchez coming back to the Tigers.

I said earlier this winter that I thought Boston was probably the favorite to land Sanchez. I had the Nationals up there too, until they signed Haren.

Right now it appears that these are the most likely parties:

1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Texas
4. Anaheim
5. Milwaukee

[chasfh]

I can see it now. DD signs Delmon to a cheap contract in February after Young figures out that nobody else wants to give him a full-time job. The plan is to platoon Young with Dirks which isn't a terrible thing (offensively). Then Martinez re-injures his knee in spring training and Delmon becomes the full-time DH.

That would make my wild card prediction come true, although probably not for the money I WAG'ed.

[chasfh]

I'm not in favor of trading for Garza when we can just sign him as a free agent a year from now. Yeah, we'll lose a draft pick because I'm sure he'll get a qualifying offer, but that's a detriment that has effects far into the future.

I'm actually starting to lean toward keeping Porcello right now, because I think his stock is actually low at this point. I still think he has decent upside, and he's about the age right now when a lot of pitchers first break into the league.

The only way I'd trade him is if we could get a somewhat younger middle infielder in return, because we have mediocre short-term options and zero long-term options there.

I'm with you on this. The guy is not even 24 yet, yet he has four years experience as a major league starter and is as solid a #5 as anyone is going to find. I'm not opposed to trading him if, as you say, we get something decent up the middle in return, but the idea of dumping him for a bag of balls, as some impatient posters here seem to imply they want, is a ludicrous one.

[RedTeamGo!]

I think I will disagree here.

1. The Reds really don't have a centerfielder.
2. Jay Bruce wasn't anything special in 2011 or 2012. He should be entering his hitting prime, though. Back to back all star 2012 OPS .841 - finished 10th in the NL MVP voting - excellent defender
3. Ryan Ludwick basically posted an OPS+ of 100 from 2009-2011. He hit reasonably well 2012, but he will be 34 and I don't know what to expect. Was in San Diego 2010-2011, Had a .877 OPS in 2012 (you consider this "reasonably well?")
4. I love Choo. Not going to bag on him.

.

[4hzglory]

I'm with you on this. The guy is not even 24 yet, yet he has four years experience as a major league starter and is as solid a #5 as anyone is going to find. I'm not opposed to trading him if, as you say, we get something decent up the middle in return, but the idea of dumping him for a bag of balls, as some impatient posters here seem to imply they want, is a ludicrous one.

I don't see many wanting to dump him for a bag of balls. The way I look at him is he is young and a solid #5 like you say. He also is getting reasonably expensive. If we don't get a better SP, I don't trade him. However, if we sign Sanchez, or can get a better pitcher than Porcello for at least 2-3 years, Porcello is the guy I would move. Not because I don't like him, but when you factor in the $ and the arm they throw with, I think Smyly fits better and I do think we can get a decent return for Rick. Look at it this way, Porcello will likely cost more than Dickey in 2013, and over the next 3 years likely only a few million less total. If I could get Dickey for Porcello + a Garcia I definitely do it. If I could get Sanchez for 4yrs $56-60 mil, I'd move Porcello. That's not likely to happen and once you get higher than that, I'd keep Porcello and let Sanchez walk.

[RedTeamGo!]

Not to mention the fact Bruce has improved every season since he has come up (at the age of 21!) and won a silver slugger at the age of 25. He is entering his age 26 season and should break out even more.

Just because someone isn't talked about on ESPN doesn't mean he "isn't anything special" it means he doesn't play for the Yankees or Red Sox.

[T&P_Fan]

Just because someone isn't talked about on ESPN doesn't mean he "isn't anything special" it means he doesn't play for the Yankees or Red Sox.

I won't get into the Bruce debate, but I will interject that people here know baseball rather well. This isn't an ESPN audience of baseball fans.

[RedTeamGo!]

I won't get into the Bruce debate, but I will interject that people here know baseball rather well. This isn't an ESPN audience of baseball fans.

Been here for 9 years and am well aware of the crowd. If he looked at the stats he would have realized Bruce was good last year.

[JayVee]

But can Choo play CF?

I would try Bruce there, and keep Choo in right...

[Vonlenska]

RTG -- to be fair to Biggs, who is usually right on, Bruce's .841 OPS and 34 HR were very good, especially in this offensive environment, but consider this:

Bruce at home: .286/.356/.607 21 HR 61 RBI
Bruce away: .218/.297/.421 13 HR 38 RBI

those are some pretty striking home/away splits. He plays 81 games in the 2nd most prolific ballpark for hitting homeruns, and the 7th most offensively slanted park overall. Now, it's not like he's not going to be playing at GABP again this season, but it is something to consider.

[benrush]

I said earlier this winter that I thought Boston was probably the favorite to land Sanchez. I had the Nationals up there too, until they signed Haren.

Right now it appears that these are the most likely parties:

1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Texas
4. Anaheim
5. Milwaukee

No way on Boston, there GM has been outspoken about not going long term on anyone. I'd be shocked if anyone on that list went above the four year threshold, which is the big hurdle and reason he hasn't been signed. I think the Buerhle contract is a safe berometer of what Sanchez will ultimately receive!

[benrush]

RTG -- to be fair to Biggs, who is usually right on, Bruce's .841 OPS and 34 HR were very good, especially in this offensive environment, but consider this:

Bruce at home: .286/.356/.607 21 HR 61 RBI
Bruce away: .218/.297/.421 13 HR 38 RBI

those are some pretty striking home/away splits. He plays 81 games in the 2nd most prolific ballpark for hitting homeruns, and the 7th most offensively slanted park overall. Now, it's not like he's not going to be playing at GABP again this season, but it is something to consider.

Bruce was rated by baseball America as the top prospect in 2009! Reminds me a lot of another top prospect recently delt in KC!

[RatkoVarda]

Red Sox talking to Dempster; that would take them out of Sanchez.
Its not my money but 5/$75 would be my limit.
I wonder if the potential return for Porcello has a significant effect on the offer to Anibal?

[ballmich]

No way on Boston, there GM has been outspoken about not going long term on anyone. I'd be shocked if anyone on that list went above the four year threshold, which is the big hurdle and reason he hasn't been signed. I think the Buerhle contract is a safe berometer of what Sanchez will ultimately receive!

Of course there is a way, particularly if Sanchez has a preference for Boston, or if his demands come down into the 3-4 year range. And I have some reason to believe that he'd like to go back to Boston.

That said, there are five teams that are reportedly looking for SP, and five guys considered to be the best of the remaining FA's. Noteable is that the Tigers are reportedly only interested in Sanchez, and likely won't sign any of the others.

So play mix and match:

Boston, Detroit, Texas, Anaheim, Milwaukee.

Sanchez, Lohse, Dempster, Jackson, Marcum.

[tiger337]

I could see that. Is it any worse than if we didn't sign Young and Martinez injured his kneed in ST? In that scenario, I presume the DH would rotate a bit, but that Boesch probably projects to grab most of the PA's.

No, but I would rather they sign a different depth player than Young. Young is not the worst player in baseball, but I dislike his skill set and the fact that teams tend to use him as a full-time player. I'd rather they avoid him altogether and try somebody different

[TigersSlappy]

That said, there are five teams that are reportedly looking for SP, and five guys considered to be the best of the remaining FA's. Noteable is that the Tigers are reportedly only interested in Sanchez, and likely won't sign any of the others.

If Sanchez signs elsewhere I could see the Tigers making a deal with Jackson providing the price was reasonable.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Been here for 9 years and am well aware of the crowd. If he looked at the stats he would have realized Bruce was good last year.

I didn't say he wasn't good. I said he wasn't anything special. You are talking about a guy who has had an OPS+ of 120 the last 3 years who has good defensive metrics in 2009-10 and below average ones in 2011-12. If he truly is a below average to average defender in RF, I don't think a 120 OPS+ is suffiently high to make him a special player.

With regards to Ludwick playing in San Diego, OPS+ includes park effects. Even accounting for those, he had an OPS+ of 100 (league average) 2009-2011. He did have an OPS+ of 128 in Cinci last year, which is good, but does that mean he will repeat the feat next year. I'm not sure. He appears to be an average fielder.

[Greenwit]

I said earlier this winter that I thought Boston was probably the favorite to land Sanchez. I had the Nationals up there too, until they signed Haren.

Right now it appears that these are the most likely parties:

1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Texas
4. Anaheim
5. Milwaukee

I wouldn't count out the Dodgers. They are flush with cash and may not be done.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

How many starting pitchers do the Dodgers need?

Kershaw is due a big extention next year.

[Shelton]

I think we may be splitting hairs here trying to make sense of the phrase "isn't anything special," where the definition of special is obviously a subjective thing.

Jay Bruce is about a 4 win player in the outfield and that level makes him a top 20 outfielder. If special means an MVP caliber player, he isn't that, but he's still very good and every team in mlb would love to have him.

I'd say that is better than "not anything special."

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

BR has him as a 2 win player.

[irvink]

Of the teams mentioned, and from what I've read, Texas might be the only team that could get desperate enough to give Anibal the 80-90 mil he wants. Maybe Boston.

It seems like the Angels are cutting back. Greinke said they never even made him a serious offer.

I also read that Milwaukee plans to have a payroll this year closer to 90 mil. I don't see them giving Anibal a big dollar deal.

Tony Paul wrote today that the Tigers are willing to go 4/60 for Anibal. A couple weeks ago that number seemed like a very long shot. Today, I'd say there's close to a 50% that the Tigers could bring him back at (or around) that number.

[Greenwit]

How many starting pitchers do the Dodgers need?

Kershaw is due a big extention next year.

Listening to MLB radio on XM this morning the Dodgers are the new Yankees, play money and all.....$300M in TV revenue alone annually. Compared to say the Braves with $15M.

At Home Plate - Dodgers

Dodgers’ $7 billion TV deal changing baseball
Written by Jonathan Leshanski (Contact & Archive) on December 05, 2012

The biggest deal of the offseason wasn't the 12-player fire sale between the Marlins and Blue Jays, but a move that was made by the Dodgers that has largely been ignored by talent evaluators.

That deal was the $7B in local television rights the team sold to Fox for a quarter century of rights. Now that's a game changer. It's the largest amount of money ever to change hands for local television rights and it will make the Dodgers the richest franchise in the game with the possible exception of the Yankees, whose owners own both the team and the local sports network which relays the games in the New York area.*

[A.J.K.]

I'd like to see the Tigers trade for Dickey, if we can extend him. It's probably not the wisest baseball decision; I just like knuckleballers.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Listening to MLB radio on XM this morning the Dodgers are the new Yankees, play money and all.....$300M in TV revenue alone annually. Compared to say the Braves with $15M.

I am aware of the Dodgers TV deal. I am questioning how many starting pitchers they need. They already have 8 starting pitchers:

Beckett
Billingsley
Capuano
Harang
Greinke
Kershaw
Lilly
Ryu

As to my comment about Kershaw, the Dodgers already have over $700M committed in guaranteed contracts. Signing Kershaw will be another $150M+. Surely there is some limit where the Dodgers will not take on more salary.

[TheCouga]

Of course there is a way, particularly if Sanchez has a preference for Boston, or if his demands come down into the 3-4 year range. And I have some reason to believe that he'd like to go back to Boston.

That said, there are five teams that are reportedly looking for SP, and five guys considered to be the best of the remaining FA's. Noteable is that the Tigers are reportedly only interested in Sanchez, and likely won't sign any of the others.

So play mix and match:

Boston, Detroit, Texas, Anaheim, Milwaukee.

Sanchez, Lohse, Dempster, Jackson, Marcum.

You could also add Dickey to that mix, as I do think he will be traded.

Boston really has no reason to sign Sanchez unless the bottom falls out on his price. They're not in a position where adding a player like Sanchez is going to turn them into a playoff contender. Boston is rebuilding. They got rid of Adrian, Crawford, and Beckett, their bullpen is a mess, Elsbury is likely to leave in free agency next year, they don't have an answer at catcher, etc. Their rotation is also aging and injury prone. They seem to be in "avoid the cellar" mode rather than "let's sign a decent starter and make the playoffs" mode. Victorino, Jonny Gomes, and Mike Napoli aren't the kind of players you sign when you're making a playoff run. They're stopgaps to make the team not horrible while they rebuild.

[TheCouga]

As to my comment about Kershaw, the Dodgers already have over $700M committed in guaranteed contracts. Signing Kershaw will be another $150M+. Surely there is some limit where the Dodgers will not take on more salary.

Also, keep in mind that anyone the Dodgers sign right now will cost 50% more to them than to any other team. So if they commit $100MM to Sanchez, they're really paying $150MM. Maybe that won't matter to them, I don't know.

[tiger337]

I am aware of the Dodgers TV deal. I am questioning how many starting pitchers they need. They already have 8 starting pitchers:

Beckett
Billingsley
Capuano
Harang
Greinke
Kershaw
Lilly
Ryu

.

They don't have five pitchers better than Sanchez. They can sign him and trade others.

[TigersSlappy]

I also saw Boesch's name mentioned with Houston's DH spot today.

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
Sources: #Tigers, #Mariners have had preliminary talks about Brennan Boesch. Story here: Sources: Tigers, Mariners have talked about Boesch - Yardbarker @MLBONFOX

[TheCouga]

They don't have five pitchers better than Sanchez. They can sign him and trade others.

Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Beckett, and Billingsley are all locks in their rotation for the next two years at least. I'm not sure Sanchez is a clear upgrade on any one of them aside from possibly Ryu, but they didn't just sign him to be a swing man. It wouldn't really make much sense to sign Sanchez only to be forced to trade one of these guys (and when you're forced to trade, your leverage goes down, so you're not going to get a good return anyways).

They could trade Lilly, Capuano, and Harang, but the logistics of trading those three PLUS another one of the above five guys would get a bit ridiculous.

The only people circulating rumors of the Dodgers being in on Sanchez are probably people that work for Sanchez's agent.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

They don't have five pitchers better than Sanchez. They can sign him and trade others.

I have to imagine Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu and Billingsly are not being traded.

So that means something like 3 of the following 4 would need to be traded if Sanchez were acquired: Beckett, Capuano, Harang and Lilly. Lilly has a no trade clause and Beckett's contract prices him out of a lot of teams range.

[TheCouga]

I don't think Beckett gets traded, either. He was fantastic for the Dodgers this year.