2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[PuNk42AE]

2006 Tigers Prospects - #1 Maybin, #2 Miller, #6 De La Cruz, #8 Trahern got traded for someone, how did that end up?

[RandyMarsh]

2006 Tigers Prospects - #1 Maybin, #2 Miller, #6 De La Cruz, #8 Trahern got traded for someone, how did that end up?

Apples to oranges, for starters we were a year removed from the World Series and coming off a 90 some win season. So we were ready to compete right then and there. Also Cabrera was like 24 years old about to enter his prime, Shields will be 31 in a couple weeks and is a FA in 2 years. So they are two completely different players, even at the time of the trade most people considered Cabrera to be at the very least one of the top 5 young hitters in the game. Very few people in the history of baseball accomplished what he did at his age. Shields is no where close to what Cabrera was even back then. He's a borderline 2, having only 1 season his entire career where his ERA was under 3.5.

[PuNk42AE]

My point is that prospects are prospects, until someone is proven in the majors it's still a semi-crapshoot.

[alwaysthrowheat]

My point is that prospects are prospects, until someone is proven in the majors it's still a semi-crapshoot.

Not when the alternative is Jeff Franceour.

[Nastradamus]

Horrendous deal by the Royals. Shields is overrated, Davis is terrible, and they gave up one of the top prospects in baseball AND more good prospects for them. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

All those years of being terrible and building the farm system only to inexplicably throw it all away and reverse course when they're still not ready to contend. Terrible GMing 101

Hate the trade if you will, but James Shields is not overrated by any means. He's not a pure ace, but he's a stud. Good for 215 IP a year of mid 3s FIP/ERA.

IMO, this is about the established price for a guy of his caliber. He's controlled for a little less time than guys like Gio and Latos, but you get Davis and PTBNL to even things out. I don't find Myers to be some sort of guaranteed stud fwiw.

[benrush]

I like the deal for the Royals. They didn't give up anyone on the MLB roster and picked up two pretty good starters.

Montgomery is not a prospect anymore. He sucks! Meyers is a stud but they still have Bubba Starling and Olduzzi is no longer the teams top pitching prospect.

Tigers should take note on how to replace Scherzer in a couple of years. 2013 draft you need to maximize your bonus allotment and make high ceiling picks, Royals made big investments recently and it's paying off. Tigers will more than likely have a top 20 pick a comp a pick no lower than no 45 and a second rounder around 75. By comparison, Thompson was taken at pick 91

[Yoda]

My point is that prospects are prospects, until someone is proven in the majors it's still a semi-crapshoot.

So what? What about all of the mega-prospects like Verlander that aren't traded? You don't think teams inquired about him when he was "just a prospect"?

[Gehringer_2]

Apples to oranges, for starters we were a year removed from the World Series and coming off a 90 some win season. So we were ready to compete right then and there. Also Cabrera was like 24 years old about to enter his prime, Shields will be 31 in a couple weeks and is a FA in 2 years. So they are two completely different players, even at the time of the trade most people considered Cabrera to be at the very least one of the top 5 young hitters in the game. Very few people in the history of baseball accomplished what he did at his age. Shields is no where close to what Cabrera was even back then. He's a borderline 2, having only 1 season his entire career where his ERA was under 3.5.

the basic point about the age comparison is fair, but not quite as strong as a comparison between two position players would be. A pitcher at 31 has better odds of having more years left than a position player at 31. A larger proportion of pitchers than position players play deeper into their 30's.

[Yoda]

I like the deal for the Royals. They didn't give up anyone on the MLB roster and picked up two pretty good starters.

Montgomery is not a prospect anymore. He sucks! Meyers is a stud but they still have Bubba Starling and Olduzzi is no longer the teams top pitching prospect.

Tigers should take note on how to replace Scherzer in a couple of years. 2013 draft you need to maximize your bonus allotment and make high ceiling picks, Royals made big investments recently and it's paying off. Tigers will more than likely have a top 20 pick a comp a pick no lower than no 45 and a second rounder around 75. By comparison, Thompson was taken at pick 91

How is Wade Davis a "pretty good" starter? He's spent 3 seasons as a starter, 09-11, and his k/9 went from 8.9 to 6.1 down to 5.1 in '11. That is a very bad and alarming trend. Wade is a pretty good relief pitcher and if he's starting, will probably be quite a bit below-average.

[TheCouga]

DKnobler ‏@DKnobler
As @JonHeymanCBS points out, on baseball-reference the most similar pitcher to James Shields is Zack Greinke.

Nice.

[PuNk42AE]

Since it's interesting me, BA's top 50 in 2007 (before trade) had Maybin #6, and Miller #10.
2012 was Myers #28 and Odorizzi #68

[TheCouga]

Not when the alternative is Jeff Franceour.

Like I said before, the alternative doesn't have to be Jeff Francoeur. The Royals can probably go out and sign a better corner OF replacement a lot easier than they could have a pitcher of Shields' caliber.

They Royals see their window of keeping their offense together only for the next few years, and want to compete now. It's not a bad idea. By the time Myers hits his prime, Moustakas, Gordon, Butler, Hosmer etc. will all likely be gone. The AL Central is weak right now, and even if they aren't good enough to beat us, they can rack up wins beating up on CHI, MIN, and CLE, and possibly catch that second wild card slot -- especially with the Red Sox and Yankees in decline, the Orioles destined to fall back to earth, and this move weakening Tampa in the short term. The only other teams they have to compete with then for the wild card are the A's, who they can financially compete with, and the seemingly hapless Angels, who can't make the playoffs despite spending a fortune.

It's still probably a bad deal, but it's not so bad that it's unjustifiable. If I were giving up Myers, I would have tried to get more than just two years of team control, and would have tried to get a younger pitcher. But this deal could work out for them.

[benrush]

How is Wade Davis a "pretty good" starter? He's spent 3 seasons as a starter, 09-11, and his k/9 went from 8.9 to 6.1 down to 5.1 in '11. That is a very bad and alarming trend. Wade is a pretty good relief pitcher and if he's starting, will probably be quite a bit below-average.

In 2009 he had six starts. It's not a trend of decline for someone who was only 22 and teams didn't have advance scouting reports and video on him. In his two full years as a starter at age 23 and 24 he held a 1.3 whip and averaged about a hit an inning. For a guy with three years of cost control and stuff that grades out pretty good he is a nice throw in. I think he will be a good starter and I it's hard to see major decline on someone that's just hitting arbitration at 26. I think he will be there second best starter.

[TheCouga]

I have to say, the Royals' offense would have been pretty amazing with Myers. I didn't realize how long they had everyone locked up/extended. Perez could be a great C, Escobar was thought to be an all-glove type but he's showing he can hit, too, at least by SS standards. Cain/Dyson make a great CF platoon. Moose and Hosmer have five years left till FA.

They'll have this core together for about 5 years, give or take. If you add Myers to the mix, that's one potent offense for a long time.

But even with that kind of offense, their pitching would have constantly held them back. I like Paulino, and Odorozzi could have possibly been a good #3 or #4, but they don't really have anyone on top of that, and don't have the financial means to acquire it on the FA market. When #5 starters are commanding $8MM/year, you have to make some sacrifices.

[TheCouga]

If Royals deal is bad, why were the Tigers hoping they wouldn't make it? - CBSSports.com

Nice piece by Knobler.

[The Ghost of Neifi]

My point is that prospects are prospects, until someone is proven in the majors it's still a semi-crapshoot.

You don't trade away those prospects for a 31-year old pitcher

Just be thankful your GM is Dave Dombrowski and not Dayton Moore

[Yoda]

If Royals deal is bad, why were the Tigers hoping they wouldn't make it? - CBSSports.com

Nice piece by Knobler.

I read it last night and while I usually like Knobler, a lot, I didn't like this piece. The fact that the Tigers were hoping they wouldn't make it doesn't make it a good trade. It's a pretty ridiculous point to try making, especially for someone like Danny. Obviously it helps KC this year, which is why the Tigers might have hoped they wouldn't do it, but it could end up being very bad over the course of the next 5+ years. KC isn't just one or two pitchers away from contending.

Also, just because the Tigers had hoped they wouldn't acquire Shields doesn't mean that they still hate the trade after seeing what they gave up.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

A pitcher at 31 has better odds of having more years left than a position player at 31. A larger proportion of pitchers than position players play deeper into their 30's.

Still the Cabrera comparison is poor, IMO. Cabrera was already better and was 6 years younger - even accounting for the fact that pitchers can age better than hitters, I don't think that is worth 6 years.

Plus Detroit was a legitimate WS contender at the time of the deal. Plus Detroit had the financial resources and willingness to give Miguel an 8 year deal. Will the Royals extend Shields?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

I read it last night and while I usually like Knobler, a lot, I didn't like this piece. The fact that the Tigers were hoping they wouldn't make it doesn't make it a good trade. It's a pretty ridiculous point to try making, especially for someone like Danny. Obviously it helps KC this year, which is why the Tigers might have hoped they wouldn't do it, but it could end up being very bad over the course of the next 5+ years. KC isn't just one or two pitchers away from contending.

Also, just because the Tigers had hoped they wouldn't acquire Shields doesn't mean that they still hate the trade after seeing what they gave up.

I have one word to describe that piece that can't be repeated here.

Rest assured, the word wasn't great.

EDIT: I really hate articles that rely entirely on the appeal to authority arguments with a condescending tone taken towards bloggers and/or twitter users. I don't even especially like bloggers / tweeters, but come on - that is just tired and lazy.

[sabretooth]

They definitely needed pitching, but the fact is a run scored is just as valuable as a run prevented. So even though they already had a solid offense, they could've potentially had an even better one if they kept Myers, because after all the only person blocking him was the pathetic Jeff Franceour. Now if Myers was a 1B and was blocked by Hosmer or Butler, I could understand trading him, but he's not, they basically just sacrificed one weakness(corner OF) to improve another(their rotation). On top of that they gave up other prospects as well. Now if Davis can be a solid 3 or 4 in their rotation than the trade isn't that bad but it looks like he is more suited for relief. This would've been like us giving up Castellanos, Turner, Crosby and others for Shields at the deadline last year. Actually this is probably even worse because atleast we were in position to win, the Royals finished 16 games behind us last year, and we are more than likely going to be even better this year. So chances are the Royals are atleast 2 years away from challenging us and that is when Shields becomes a FA. Just an awful awful trade.

I don't think it was a horrible trade for the Royals, but I think your analysis is outstanding. I agree with all of the components.

I think it's a lot easier to find a decent RFer to replae Francouer than it is to find a good frontline SP like Shields.

Myers is a really good hitter, KC gave up a lot with him. He was amazingly similar to Nick C at the same age. Odorizzi seems pretty comparable to J. Turner, and I'm not so impressed with MM, but Leonard sounds very intriguing.

[Oblong]

I'm withholding judgement until Pat Caputo weighs in.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

I'm withholding judgement until Pat Caputo weighs in.

I know just what you mean.

[Shelton]

That's a terrible trade for the royals.

Instead of winning 75 games, they might win 81.

If the tigers did this I'd be furious.

[Yoda]

A friend just informed me that the Tigers signing Hunter should improve their hitting rotation.

[tiger337]

This doesn't look like a good deal for the Royals, but I don't think it's as bad as people are saying. Shields is a very talented pitcher and those are not easy to find. Nobody the Royals gave up is a sure thing. Still, I would think a team in the Royals position would want to keep their young prospects.

[Yoda]

Maybe the Royals are taking the George Castanza approach. Nothing they've done for the last 20+ years has worked, so they're just going to do the complete opposite of what their instincts tell them to do.

[tiger337]

I have one word to describe that piece that can't be repeated here.

Rest assured, the word wasn't great.

EDIT: I really hate articles that rely entirely on the appeal to authority arguments with a condescending tone taken towards bloggers and/or twitter users. I don't even especially like bloggers / tweeters, but come on - that is just tired and lazy.

Knobler is good at breaking stories but he's just an OK writer. He always used to appeal to authority when he was in Detroit: "because Leyland said so".

[Walt]

From twitter:

David Huzzard ‏@DavidHuzzard
James Shields brought more in a trade than Greinke, Halladay, Lee, or Santana

While I like James Shields, I think this was an overpay by KC. Their rotation will likely be improved, but it could be argued that (using a WAR argument) Detroit improved more with Hunter and Martinez than the royals just did. I fail to see how this makes them a contender.

[roarintiger1]

What are Hunter and Martinez's batting stats vs. Shields? That might be somewhat important.

[ballmich]

Interestingly, at least for me, this trade featured two guys who both were born in Santa Clarita and both of whom graduated from Hart High School. Shields and Montgomery. That's got to be pretty unusual to have two guys from the same town who played at the same HS, traded for each other.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

What are Hunter and Martinez's batting stats vs. Shields? That might be somewhat important.

It can be found here.

Victor Martinez in 19 AB: 0.368/0.368/0.421

Torii Hnter in 32 AB: 0.313/0.313/0.406

I don't think it particularly important at all, FWIW.

[ballmich]

If Royals deal is bad, why were the Tigers hoping they wouldn't make it? - CBSSports.com

Nice piece by Knobler.

What I liked about this article was the point he made where he states that if he doesn't make this trade, the Royals probably struggle to be competitive for the next couple of years, and Dayton Moore loses his job. It's really no different if this trade doesn't work out, because Moore loses his job in a couple years if that happens too. Whether this was the best trade in the world or not, Moore realizes the life expectancy as a GM is short if you don't win ballgames. He used his currency to put together a deal for a top of the rotation SP and another piece. At some point, you draw the line, and take your best shot. That's all that Moore has done here.

I'm not wild about Shields, but he's certainly a good SP. And if healthy, the Royals should be better this season than last.

[ballmich]

That's a terrible trade for the royals.

Instead of winning 75 games, they might win 81.

If the tigers did this I'd be furious.

One winning season in the last 18 years, I think they would be pretty happy at 81 wins. If they didn't make this trade, they are a losing ballclub for the next two seasons. That probably costs Moore his job.

The AL Central is weak right now. The Twins are in rebuilding mode. The Indians seem to be too, but may not realize it. The Sox are kind of inbetween. It's just the Tigers at the top right now. It's a good time for a ballclub like the Royals to take a shot at getting competitive.

[ballmich]

One more thing about this Royals trade, then I'm probably done with it, since it's not my team.

Is this trade any worse than trading Turner, Brantley, and Flynn for two months of Sanchez and a year and two months of Infante (and no pick compensation for Sanchez)? At least with their deal, KC controls Shields for two full seasons, and davis for five seasons (if they wish). And they probably get Pick Compensation when Shields leaves after two years. All in all, whether you like the deal or not, the Royals got long term pieces back and there's something to be said for that.

[TigersSlappy]

Detroit Tigers ‏@tigers
Clear your calendars. #Tigers President, CEO and GM David Dombrowski is taking over Twitter tomorrow at 11am. Submit q's now using #AskDave

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

One more thing about this Royals trade, then I'm probably done with it, since it's not my team.

Is this trade any worse than trading Turner, Brantley, and Flynn for two months of Sanchez and a year and two months of Infante (and no pick compensation for Sanchez)? At least with their deal, KC controls Shields for two full seasons, and davis for five seasons (if they wish). And they probably get Pick Compensation when Shields leaves after two years. All in all, whether you like the deal or not, the Royals got long term pieces back and there's something to be said for that.

My opinion is that if the trade led Sanchez to be more comfortable on being a Tiger long-term, and he signs here in part because of that, I am OK with the deal. If not, I think the Tigers gave up too much.

Of course we can never know if playing with the Tigers and enjoying a play-off run helped the Tigers chances in landing Sanchez.

[tiger337]

One more thing about this Royals trade, then I'm probably done with it, since it's not my team.

Is this trade any worse than trading Turner, Brantley, and Flynn for two months of Sanchez and a year and two months of Infante (and no pick compensation for Sanchez)? At least with their deal, KC controls Shields for two full seasons, and davis for five seasons (if they wish). And they probably get Pick Compensation when Shields leaves after two years. All in all, whether you like the deal or not, the Royals got long term pieces back and there's something to be said for that.

I agree. Last year at this time, many considered Turner to be almost untouchable. They were talking about him the same way they are talking about Myers now.

[Walt]

It can be found here.

Victor Martinez in 19 AB: 0.368/0.368/0.421

Torii Hnter in 32 AB: 0.313/0.313/0.406

I don't think it particularly important at all, FWIW.

It may seem important for all of possibly five games that we face him. I have the feeling that if we are playing KC and Shields is starting, the overwhelming sentiment fro players and fans will be "Thank goodness that it isn't Chen."

[pyrotigers]

Some other takes on the trade that I'm stealing from around the internet:

Baseball Mogul:



John Sickels:

My initial reaction is that this is completely insane.

Rotoworld:

Dayton Moore is taking a big risk.

Out of the Park Baseball:



Royals Blogger Rany:

Complete Analysis of the Myers-Shields Trade.
This sucks.

Dave Cameron:

...That trade is generally regarded as the worst prospects-for-veteran swap in recent history. This might be worse.

Normally I'd celebrate a dumb move from a division rival, but it's kind of hard not to feel bad for the Royals.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

What I liked about this article was the point he made where he states that if he doesn't make this trade, the Royals probably struggle to be competitive for the next couple of years, and Dayton Moore loses his job.

This may well explain why the trade was made, but if that is the reason why the deal was made, I'd be pretty pissed if I were a fan.