2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[ballmich]

A's declined Drew's option. Would anyone like to see him in Detroit?

Sure, but Boras will likely string out that process most of the winter. And we'll have to make a decision on Peralta very soon. I expect the club to keep Peralta instead of gambling on Drew.

[ballmich]

It's pretty much a given that Peralta is coming back and then you have Infante so if Drew is willing to be a bench player then sure.

That's ridiculous. Drew isn't going anywhere to back up at this point in his career.

[tiger337]

There is the issue of the incident in New York. The Tigers don't seem to be an organization that likes to take on players with questionable characters. So I doubt they opt to re-sign Young, the same as I doubt they inquire with Toronto about Escobar. I think the Tigers do a good job when incidents come up, but unless it's a star player, it's really not worth the negative exposure when there are generally other roster possibilities.

I don't know that they are any more averse to questionable characters than other teams. They've had Urbina, DeFelice, Dmitri Young for example. Trammell had problems with it, partly because I don't think he had DDs full support. Leyland is very good at handling problems.

[Nate7474]

heres mlbtraderumors thoughts are what are tendered players will cost if offered

Tigers (9)

Max Scherzer - $7.5MM
Rick Porcello - $4.7MM
Doug Fister - $3.8MM
Austin Jackson -$3.1MM
Alex Avila - $2.5MM
Brennan Boesch - $2.1MM
Ryan Raburn - $2.1MM
Phil Coke - $1.7MM
Don Kelly - $900K

Read more at Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2013: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[ballmich]

heres mlbtraderumors thoughts are what are tendered players will cost if offered

Tigers (9)

Max Scherzer - $7.5MM
Rick Porcello - $4.7MM
Doug Fister - $3.8MM
Austin Jackson -$3.1MM
Alex Avila - $2.5MM
Brennan Boesch - $2.1MM
Ryan Raburn - $2.1MM
Phil Coke - $1.7MM
Don Kelly - $900K

Read more at Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2013: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

You never know with arbitration, but some of those numbers are very high. Jurjens went from $3.5M to $5.5M for his fifth arb year. Cueto went from $3.4M to $5.4M for his fifth arb year. I would be surprised if Scherzer got $7.5M when he appears to be in line for $5.75M.

[Nate7474]

You never know with arbitration, but some of those numbers are very high. Jurjens went from $3.5M to $5.5M for his fifth arb year. Cueto went from $3.4M to $5.4M for his fifth arb year. I would be surprised if Scherzer got $7.5M when he appears to be in line for $5.75M.

They looked high to me as well but it gives people an idea of what are own players raises are gonna be so we can figure out how much money if the budget is the same they have to play with this offseason.

[Jeff6851]

That's ridiculous. Drew isn't going anywhere to back up at this point in his career.

I was basically saying he isn't coming here :P

[macedonian bengal]

i know this probably wouldnt happen, but could you imagine if Illitch opened his wallet even deeper and had DD sign Josh Hamilton?
That is just the kind of shocker i could see Illitch making after the aenemic efforts of our offense in the WS.

Just imagine-

1.CF Jackson-R
2.LF Hamilton-L
3.3B Cabrera-R
4.1B Fielder-L
5. Martinez-S
6. RF Dirks-L/Garcia-R
7. SS Peralta-R
8. C Avila-L
9. 2B Infante-R

Zoikes!!!

[benrush]

My Moves this offseason:

Nontender: Kelly, Raburn, Boesch

Decline Options: Inge(500K buyout), Dotel (500K buyout)

Pickup Peralta option

Sign: Melky Cabrera 1 year 7 million, incentives up to 10 million, club option for 2014 at 10 million.

Sign: Joakim Soria 1 year 4.5 million, incentives up to 7 million, clup option for 2014 at 7 million

Sign: Dan Haren 3 years 36 million

Sign: Johny Gomes 1 year 1 million
Sign: Jeremy Afeldt 2 years 10 million,
Net effect: 29 million to the books

Arbitration raises: 10 million

Salary reduction: Young 6.75, Inge 5 million, Dotel 3 million, Velverde 9 million, Kelly 900K, Raburn 2.2 million, laird 1.2
Net effect: 27 million

Trade: Peralta and to Seattle for Brendan Ryan ( salary reduction of 4 million)
Trade: Porcello and Santiago to Toronto for Mike Aviles, Joel Carreno RP, and Sean Nolin SP: Salary reduction of 5 million
Net effect: 9 million

Opening Day Salary increases by 2 million over last season.

Lineup:
CF Jackson
LF Cabrera
3b Cabrera
1b Fielder
DH Martinez
RF Dirks
2b Infante
C Avilla
SS Ryan/Aviles

Bench: Holiday, Gomes, Berry

Options for lineup:
Gomes 2b, lf, rf, 1b, 3b
Aviles: 2b, SS, 3b
Martinez: 1b
Berry: all outfield positions


SP
Verlander
Fister
Scherzer
Haren
Smyly

RP
Below
Albaquerque
Villareal
Afeldt
Coke
Benoit

Soria

[sabretooth]

A's declined Drew's option. Would anyone like to see him in Detroit?

He would be great as a semi platoon for 300 at bats. Yes.

[Jeff6851]

Don't change anything

The Tigers are your 2013 World Series favorites! | HardballTalk

Just start preparing for 2014 because we just got jinxed

[Longgone]

I believe:
Peralta, Dotel and Santiago will be back
Porcello has more value than you'd think
It's unreasonable to think Garcia or Castellanos will be ready in 2013 for full time MLB duty
They will acquire a rh outfielder and a closer
It's tough to hit coming off the bench, if you expect a bench player to hit like a regular, your expectations are too high.
You need to play your entire 25 man roster, even those that "suck"
You can't make playing decisions based on short term results

[Jeff6851]

One thing that I would have done differently from last year was to not sign Prince and have traded Turner+ for Headley. Then used the Prince money to either sign extensions or bring in other FA.

[motown blues]

I could see the Tigers signing Delmon again. He won't be their first choice, but if they haven't signed anybody else by January and Young is still out there not getting good offers, the Tigers might bring him back for cheap to play left field. He's the same player he was last year and they brought him back then, so I wouldn't discount that happening again in 2013.

let's hope someone else signs him.

[catswithbats]

i know this probably wouldnt happen, but could you imagine if Illitch opened his wallet even deeper and had DD sign Josh Hamilton?
That is just the kind of shocker i could see Illitch making after the aenemic efforts of our offense in the WS.

Meh. I'm not a fan of Hamilton coming here, for the kind of money/deal he'd command.

[spikesglaring]

One thing that I would have done differently from last year was to not sign Prince and have traded Turner+ for Headley. Then used the Prince money to either sign extensions or bring in other FA.

This times one hundred. There were several of us that wish for this to happen last year. Unfortunately, we're now stuck with a contract that will hurt badly in a few years while Headley buds into an all-star.

[STLTiger69]

Meh. I'm not a fan of Hamilton coming here, for the kind of money/deal he'd command.

I'm not trying to stir the pot but I do think a Hamilton with the Tigers makes a bunch of sense for both parties.

First: I really do hate the talk of "windows to win" in a team's history, but lets talk frank here for a second. The Tigers "window" is litterally now through 2014-2015 and then the Tigers team may go through some huge changes. First, Cabrera is a free agent after the 2015 season is over and Verlander and Victor Martinez are free agents after the 2014 season is over. Also keep in mind that trade value (for free agent compensation) is at it's best if you trade a player before the last year of his contract. Thus is Verlander or Cabrera will not sign a extension with the Tigers, it make sense to trade them for a haul from another team before the last year of their contract. This might force the Tigers to trade Verlander after the 2013 season or Cabrera after the 2014 season.

Knowing this, would Dave Dombrowski be very patient to let Garcia, Dirks or Boesch see if they can improve at the major league level over the next few years or get some veteran on the wrong side of the career path for a few years to see if he has any magic left? I'm not so sure...


Secondly, I think Hamilton knows this will likely be his last MLB contract and some things other than top dollar can be very important to him- like a no trade clause. I don't see Hamilton wanting to sign a huge deal with some grade B team only to find out that in a year or two that team cannot afford him and that they are trying to trade him to save money. Think Boston, think Miami and some other teams that have been stingly with money lately. Sign with a Ilitch team and you know who will sign your checks and that he's good for the money- thick or thin.

Third, I think Hamilton will want to play for a team who's management doesn't call players out or have a manager that sticks up for his players. Hamilton sort of became a whipping boy for Nolan Ryan in Texas (This kills me, you "only" hit 43 HR's and 128 RBI's for 2012 and Nolan Ryan says about you "His timing on quitting smokeless tobacco couldn't have been worse," to a Dallas radio program) I think Hamilton in seeking a new team doesn't want to be seen as "the guy who will save the franchise" like Albert Pujols was seen when he went to the Angels or Jose Reyes to the Marlins. If Hamilton comes to Detroit, all he has to be is himself. He'll have Cabrera, Fielder and V-Mart hitting around him and Austin Jackson making catches all around him too and anything Hamilton can bring with him to the Tigers will be extra. Hamilton will not have to put the Tigers on his shoulders and carry the team anywhere they haven't already been before.

Fourth, Hamilton is simply a monster. Look at everything we have been taking about for the past few years (with Dirks, Thomas, Young, Boesch, whoever) in a decent corner outfielders offensive production and compare it with Hamilton. Think about this for a second, his 6 year MLB average is .304 Avg .363 OBP .549 SLG .913 OPS with only 35 home runs per year and 122 RBI's in an "average" year. Offensively, the Tigers can't get much better than this for left or right field.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2007	26	CIN	NL	90	337	298	52	87	17	2	19	47	3	3	33	65	.292	.368	.554	.922	131	165	6	4	0	2	4	89/7
2008	27	TEX	AL	156	704	624	98	190	35	5	32	130	9	1	64	126	.304	.371	.530	.901	135	331	8	7	0	9	9	*89D	ASMVP-7SS
2009	28	TEX	AL	89	365	336	43	90	19	2	10	54	8	3	24	79	.268	.315	.426	.741	90	143	5	1	0	4	2	89/D	AS
2010	29	TEX	AL	133	571	518	95	186	40	3	32	100	8	1	43	95	.359	.411	.633	1.044	170	328	11	5	1	4	5	*78D	ASMVP-1SS
2011	30	TEX	AL	121	538	487	80	145	31	5	25	94	8	1	39	93	.298	.346	.536	.882	130	261	8	2	0	10	13	*78/D	ASMVP-22
2012	31	TEX	AL	148	636	562	103	160	31	2	43	128	7	4	60	162	.285	.354	.577	.930	139	324	9	5	0	9	13	*87D/9	AS
6 Yrs				737	3151	2825	471	858	173	19	161	553	43	13	263	620	.304	.363	.549	.913	135	1552	47	24	1	38	46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2012.

Ultimately Dombrowski and Ilitch and Hamilton himself will figure out if he is a match for Detroit or not. But my two cents, heck yea, try and sign him!

[TheCouga]

They gave up Turner. Isn't that like giving up a draft pick?

Well, yeah, but re-signing Sanchez would sort of nullify losing Turner in this regard then, since we would lose out on a player similar to Turner had we waited to sign Sanchez this offseason.

With the bonus caps and slot value being strictly enforced, we can't just work around the rules anymore, so it actually becomes important to manage our draft picks.

[TheCouga]

The Dodgers are supposedly open to trading Ethier:

Dodgers Open To Trading Ethier: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I think he's probably on the expensive/injury-risk/aging side, but if the Dodgers wanted to eat some salary, he'd look great in our lineup.

[TheCouga]

Instead of signing Delmon Young to platoon in a corner OF position, perhaps we should look at Jonny Gomes. He'd already be receptive to a platoon role, and he hits the tar out of lefties.

[catswithbats]

First: I really do hate the talk of "widows to win" in a team's history,

Best typo ever.

[STLTiger69]

Best typo ever.

DOUGH!
lol, fixed.....

[Yoda]

One thing that I would have done differently from last year was to not sign Prince and have traded Turner+ for Headley. Then used the Prince money to either sign extensions or bring in other FA.

Headly was a nothing before this year. You can't make trades in hindsight. Also, in the scenario the Tigers probably miss the playoffs.

[T&P_Fan]

I am really expecting Sanchez to be resigned and Porcello to be traded.

[will the thrill]

i'm really hoping someone has the vision to make Porcello the closer next year (if Sanchez is signed)

the more I think about it, it's a perfect spot for him and the tigers, if he performs anywhere close to Derrek Lowe's closer years, his value will skyrocket, and the Tigers bullpen will be outstanding

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Headly was a nothing before this year. You can't make trades in hindsight. Also, in the scenario the Tigers probably miss the playoffs.

There were definately posters who advocated trading for Headley last off-season. I don't know if Jeff was one of them, but I remember a fair amount of dialogue around that exact premise.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

i'm really hoping someone has the vision to make Porcello the closer next year (if Sanchez is signed)

the more I think about it, it's a perfect spot for him and the tigers, if he performs anywhere close to Derrek Lowe's closer years, his value will skyrocket, and the Tigers bullpen will be outstanding

Would Rick's value as a closer be greater than he would be worth in trade?

[will the thrill]

Would Rick's value as a closer be greater than he would be worth in trade?

Not sure, I think running him through the rumor mill would be beneficial to see if the return is high enough. Really depends on if any other gms really have an eye for the Porcello. I think his upside is still huge, but if the Tigers "give up" on him at this age, I can't imagine anyone will knock them out with an offer. I personally don't believe they'll get more value from trading him than they will using him as the closer

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Not sure, I think running him through the rumor mill would be beneficial to see if the return is high enough. Really depends on if any other gms really have an eye for the Porcello. I think his upside is still huge, but if the Tigers "give up" on him at this age, I can't imagine anyone will knock them out with an offer. I personally don't believe they'll get more value from trading him than they will using him as the closer

I'd think the biggest thing impacting his value in a trade is how many GMs are interested in him. If you can get two or more who view his upside to be considerable, then it really doesn't matter how the Tigers view him, because those GMs will be bidding against one another.

Rick will be a free agent after the 2015 season, so if the Tigers believe he isn't going to blossom, they really need to move him now to net as good a return as possible.

[John_Brian_K]

Not that it's a big surprise, but Stephen Drew is officially a free agent.

Oakland Athletics ‏@Athletics
#Athletics exercise option on Grant Balfour for 2013; decline option on Stephen Drew.

Isn't he a goalie? lol

[John_Brian_K]

This times one hundred. There were several of us that wish for this to happen last year. Unfortunately, we're now stuck with a contract that will hurt badly in a few years while Headley buds into an all-star.

Yeah....darn that making the World Series crap! I want 'grinders' not big bats!

[will the thrill]

This times one hundred. There were several of us that wish for this to happen last year. Unfortunately, we're now stuck with a contract that will hurt badly in a few years while Headley buds into an all-star.

yeah, a guy who struck out 157 times would have been a great addition to our offense

[ballmich]

If this is true, the FA market has gotten well out of hand again:

He's [Pagan] expected to command in excess of $10 million annually on a multiyear contract.

Giants must make many free-agent market decisions | MLB.com: News

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

^^^ If that proves true, then I retract my earlier statement about the probablility Sanchez nets $15MM or more per year on his deal and will state with certainty Anibal will net $15+.

[MC24]

On phone so can't link but JP and Dotel will be back.

[John_Brian_K]

On phone so can't link but JP and Dotel will be back.

If accurate...I am glad Dotel is back and indifferent on Peralta.

[will the thrill]

^^^ If that proves true, then I retract my earlier statement about the probablility Sanchez nets $15MM or more per year on his deal and will state with certainty Anibal will net $15+.

Pagan did have a monster season though.

If Delmon got 7 last year, Pagan is well worth 1.5 times that. He had a 121 OPS+ with sped and average defense in centerfield

but on that note, they need to offer Anibal 48/4 today and make it happen before other people sign, similar to the Victor deal. Fresh off the world series, convince him we're going again and get it done

[John_Brian_K]

Pagan did have a monster season though.

If Delmon got 7 last year, Pagan is well worth 1.5 times that. He had a 121 OPS+ with sped and average defense in centerfield

but on that note, they need to offer Anibal 48/4 today and make it happen before other people sign, similar to the Victor deal. Fresh off the world series, convince him we're going again and get it done

I REALLY like Anibal and hope to hell they do exactly what you just said.

[sabretooth]

If this is true, the FA market has gotten well out of hand again:



Giants must make many free-agent market decisions | MLB.com: News

WTF???? This is ludicrous.

[sabretooth]

i'm really hoping someone has the vision to make Porcello the closer next year (if Sanchez is signed)

the more I think about it, it's a perfect spot for him and the tigers, if he performs anywhere close to Derrek Lowe's closer years, his value will skyrocket, and the Tigers bullpen will be outstanding

A guy who strikes out 5 per 9IP and a career 850 OPS vs. LH hitters is not someone I want to see in late-inning pressure situations.