2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[RatkoVarda]

Cody Ross wants 3/$25. The Red Sox passed, for now, despite his insane Fenway numbers.


Buster Olney ✔@Buster_ESPN In Cody Ross's talks with the Red Sox, his side was looking for something in the 3-year, $25 million range.
5 Nov 12 Reply RetweetFavorite

[stanpapi]

Can you imagine what Milt Wilcox would think if we had a Hairston on our team?

[Eric Cioe]

Is Cody Ross much better than Andy Dirks?

[ballmich]

Dirks has been an unimpressive hitter over his career, and has the chance to be a black hole, but he is a pretty decent fielder, and I would be satisfied to see them give him the first half of the season to see if he can hold down LF reasonably well.

He's been a different player for 2 years now. I certainly wouldn't call 2011-12 unimpressive.

[PuNk42AE]

Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

Terms on Guthrie's new contract with #Royals: three years for $25 million; $5 million in 2013; $11 million in 2014; $9 million in 2015.

Well at least Sanchez wasn't better than Guthrie on the year, should keep his contract demands down,,, oh,,, wait...

[ballmich]

Well, the Royals should be completely out of the Sanchez running now. They probably were anyway, but this solidifies it.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Guthrie 3/25 and Ervin Santana for 13MM... not how I'd choose to spend my money.

[sabretooth]

He's been a different player for 2 years now. I certainly wouldn't call 2011-12 unimpressive.

2011 was completely unimpressive (under 750 OPS, 308wOBA), but 2012 was a nice partial-season run for 350 PAs.

His Minor-League OPS of 779 was nothing to write home about, and had one full season in the minors above 800 (818).

I like him as a bench player, and I think he'll be good enough as a semi-regular complimentary player in 2013 (assuming everybody else does at least OK offensively), but Dirks should not be relied upon for plus offensive production.

[sabretooth]

Is Cody Ross much better than Andy Dirks?

Not likely much better, not at age 33 anyway. Both are decent semi-regulars.

[TigersSlappy]

DKnobler ‏@DKnobler
Dodgers asking around about Greinke, sources say. Also targeting Sanchez. Dodgers asking about Zack Greinke, their top free agent target - CBSSports.com

[PuNk42AE]

Brian Britten ‏@BBritten_Tigers

Tigers purchase contracts of RHPs Melvin Mercedes & Bruce Rondon and INF Dixon Machado from Triple A Toledo today. #tigers

Roster was at 38, which should mean 1 person was dropped.

[PuNk42AE]

Brian Britten ‏@BBritten_Tigers

Tigers outright contract of RHP Tyler Stohr to Triple A Toledo. Detroit has released INF/OF Ryan Raburn. #tigers

There we go.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Roster was at 38, which should mean 1 person was dropped.

Stohr

[ballmich]

2011 was completely unimpressive (under 750 OPS, 308wOBA), but 2012 was a nice partial-season run for 350 PAs.

His Minor-League OPS of 779 was nothing to write home about, and had one full season in the minors above 800 (818).

I like him as a bench player, and I think he'll be good enough as a semi-regular complimentary player in 2013 (assuming everybody else does at least OK offensively), but Dirks should not be relied upon for plus offensive production.

2011: 89 OPS+ at the major league level and a .891 OPS at AAA.
2012: 130 OPS+ in the majors

And an OPS of .913 at AAA over three partial seasons.

Your career minor-league OPS is noted, but doesn't counter my comment that he hasn't been unimpressive during the last two seasons. Actually, going back to the end of 2010 and including last year's winter ball performance. It seems to me that something has clicked for him, though I still don't see him as an everyday regular.

[Scottwood]

I kind of expect either the Dodgers or Red Sox to throw a bunch of money at Sanchez and to take us out of the running. I think DD uses some of the money they had tucked away to make a potential run at Sanchez to sign a RH corner OF like Gomes, a RH backup catcher and a bullpen arm. Maybe they sign a vet SP to compete with Porcello and Smyly or just acquire another SP if the right trade comes along.

[irvink]

If the Dodgers are serious about Greinke, with Sanchez as the backup, I feel the Tigers' chances of retaining him are pretty low. If the Angels or Rangers manage to sign Greinke, then I think they give Anibal the $ he's looking for. If the Dodgers sign Greinke, then I think the Angels absolutely must sign Anibal to replace him. The Angels have the money and need Sanchez much more than we do.

[ballmich]

I kind of expect either the Dodgers or Red Sox to throw a bunch of money at Sanchez and to take us out of the running.

Then we were never in the running to begin with. Five years at $15MM/season was pretty much the expected price tag. If we aren't in that ballpark, which is fine if we aren't, but then we weren't contenders to actually re-sign him.

He's a top five FA and perhaps the top SP on the market. He was never going to sign for chump change and from what we know, never indicated he would give Detroit any kind of discount.

[irvink]

Then we were never in the running to begin with. Five years at $15MM/season was pretty much the expected price tag. If we aren't in that ballpark, which is fine if we aren't, but then we weren't contenders to actually re-sign him.

I don't think this is quite accurate. A lot of people were predicting Sanchez would cost 50-70 million over 4 or 5 years, but Sanchez reportedly asked the Tigers for something 6/100. I think that's a pretty big difference. However, I do think there is a pretty good shot that Anibal gets what he's asking for from whatever SoCal team loses out on Greinke.

[ballmich]

I don't think this is quite accurate. A lot of people were predicting Sanchez would cost 50-70 million over 4 or 5 years, but Sanchez reportedly asked the Tigers for something 6/100. I think that's a pretty big difference. However, I do think there is a pretty good shot that Anibal gets what he's asking for from whatever SoCal team loses out on Greinke.

No, I am accurate. Just because some fool says Sanchez will get 4/5 for $50-60 million doesn't make it so. That was never going to happen. He's a top 5 free agent, and quite possibly the top SP for some teams. Clearly there would be heavy bidding for him.

[Shelton]

Guthrie 3/25 and Ervin Santana for 13MM... not how I'd choose to spend my money.

I think they could combine for about four wins, so it's not all that bad. It's not like they had internal options that could do the job cheaper, and it is a short term solution.

How would you have spent 21 million this season?

[irvink]

No, I am accurate. Just because some fool says Sanchez will get 4/5 for $50-60 million doesn't make it so. That was never going to happen. He's a top 5 free agent, and quite possibly the top SP for some teams. Clearly there would be heavy bidding for him.

It wasn't just "some fool" who predicted it, but Jim Bowden, who was very accurate with his FA $ predictions last year and has been pretty close again so far this year.

2 weeks ago, he predicted Anibal would get 56 million over 4 years.

I thought that number was low even then, but still did not imagine his sticker price could reach 100 million.

[roarintiger1]

I keep reading Johnny Gomes name as a possible target.... Are you folks insane? We just got rid of Inge and Raburn, who struckout about as many times as they got a hit.....just about like Gomes. Gomes is NOT what the Tigers need. Please.....no.

[sabretooth]

I keep reading Johnny Gomes name as a possible target.... Are you folks insane? We just got rid of Inge and Raburn, who struckout about as many times as they got a hit.....just about like Gomes. Gomes is NOT what the Tigers need. Please.....no.

Nobody is looking at Gomes as a regular player like Inge and Raburn were. The difference with Gomes is that he has always been effective at getting on base and hitting with power against LHP. As a part-time specialist to mash LHP he's as good an option as anybody out there.

[TheCouga]

I've seen some very interesting rumors on MLBTR lately.

First, we signed Kevin Russo. This looks like a depth move, and we need depth at SS anyway. But then...

I saw a rumor earlier today that the Diamondbacks were interested in Jhonny Peralta.

Now, I am seeing a rumor that the Tigers are interested in Stephen Drew.

If you take all three together, coupled with the rumors of our interest in Upton, I could see Peralta being a trade chip in a Castellanos deal for Upton. It makes sense if the D-backs intend to sign Peralta to an extension, at least. I have to imagine Garcia would be included to get Upton, but perhaps if Peralta is included in the deal, we could get by with Castellanos/Peralta/Rondon, then sign Drew and use Russo as depth.

[TheCouga]

I have to believe that Castellanos and Porcello will be traded. They have more value to other teams that they do to Detroit. Porcello will be far more valuable to a team with better IF defense (plus, AZ's GM seems to like ground ball pitchers), and Castellanos will be far more valuable to a team that can play him at 3B. When this is the case, it's usually better to trade guys and get someone that is a better fit for your team. Perhaps Castellanos/Peralta/Porcello could bring back Upton. Maybe that's not enough, I don't know. All I do know is that I would love that trade, even if we had to add in another prospect. Then we can sign Sanchez and Drew, and call it an offseason.

[Hart]

I have serious doubts Scherzer and Fister are going to be durable pitchers. It seems like almost every pitcher runs into arm trouble at some point but I would rather take my chances giving Sanchez big money than Scherzer or Fister. I know Scherzer is a few years from free agency (and due a healthy raise this year) but would it be a worthwhile risk to trade Scherzer for younger and cheaper talent, save some money there, and pay Sanchez now?

Scherzer and Verlander are set to become free agents at the same time and that is not an enviable position to be in either. Also, Scherzer and Sanchez are the same age. I think I would rather give Sanchez a big contract now than give Scherzer the same big contract in two years when he is starting the contract two years older. Just some thoughts...

[TheCouga]

I have serious doubts Scherzer and Fister are going to be durable pitchers. It seems like almost every pitcher runs into arm trouble at some point but I would rather take my chances giving Sanchez big money than Scherzer or Fister. I know Scherzer is a few years from free agency (and due a healthy raise this year) but would it be a worthwhile risk to trade Scherzer for younger and cheaper talent, save some money there, and pay Sanchez now?

Scherzer and Verlander are set to become free agents at the same time and that is not an enviable position to be in either. Also, Scherzer and Sanchez are the same age. I think I would rather give Sanchez a big contract now than give Scherzer the same big contract in two years when he is starting the contract two years older. Just some thoughts...

Interesting way of looking at things. I agree. Although, I'm not sure if Fister is much of an injury risk. I feel like his injuries this year were more of a fluke. But I can see it becoming an issue with Scherzer. Plus, with Scherzer, there's always the Boras factor.

[TheCouga]

I've seen some very interesting rumors on MLBTR lately.

First, we signed Kevin Russo. This looks like a depth move, and we need depth at SS anyway. But then...

I saw a rumor earlier today that the Diamondbacks were interested in Jhonny Peralta.

Now, I am seeing a rumor that the Tigers are interested in Stephen Drew.

If you take all three together, coupled with the rumors of our interest in Upton, I could see Peralta being a trade chip in a Castellanos deal for Upton. It makes sense if the D-backs intend to sign Peralta to an extension, at least. I have to imagine Garcia would be included to get Upton, but perhaps if Peralta is included in the deal, we could get by with Castellanos/Peralta/Rondon, then sign Drew and use Russo as depth.

Whoops...looks like this discussion has already been had on the SS thread...

Ol' lightning wit strikes again

[Hart]

Interesting way of looking at things. I agree. Although, I'm not sure if Fister is much of an injury risk. I feel like his injuries this year were more of a fluke. But I can see it becoming an issue with Scherzer. Plus, with Scherzer, there's always the Boras factor.

Also, Fister has 3 more years of arbitration while Scherzer has two and I imagine he will be making a lot less than Scherzer next year so if you believe those two guys to carry about equal value, it would make a lot more sense to trade Scherzer than Fister.

[TigersSlappy]

There's a fall in the space of 2 years.

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
Figgins designated for assignment, mariners announce

[Hart]

I have to believe that Castellanos and Porcello will be traded. They have more value to other teams that they do to Detroit. Porcello will be far more valuable to a team with better IF defense (plus, AZ's GM seems to like ground ball pitchers), and Castellanos will be far more valuable to a team that can play him at 3B. When this is the case, it's usually better to trade guys and get someone that is a better fit for your team. Perhaps Castellanos/Peralta/Porcello could bring back Upton. Maybe that's not enough, I don't know. All I do know is that I would love that trade, even if we had to add in another prospect. Then we can sign Sanchez and Drew, and call it an offseason.

I can't remember where I read it but there was some article just in the last few days on how in certain instances, teams are overvaluing prospects and it uses Mike Olt from Texas as an example. He had a lot of trade value at the deadline, Texas decided to keep him, he really struggled to hit big league pitching, and it is now believe his trade value has taken a big hit. Maybe this is not fair and maybe Mike Olt will turn out to be a good major league hitter but as things stand now, his value is a lot lower than than it was 3 months ago (at least in some baseball peoples opinion). I could see this same thing happening to Castellanos (and to some degree it has already happened with Porcello).

[Hart]

There's a fall in the space of 2 years.

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
Figgins designated for assignment, mariners announce

I wanted this guy in Detroit bad...thank goodness that never happened.

[TheCouga]

I can't remember where I read it but there was some article just in the last few days on how in certain instances, teams are overvaluing prospects and it uses Mike Olt from Texas as an example. He had a lot of trade value at the deadline, Texas decided to keep him, he really struggled to hit big league pitching, and it is now believe his trade value has taken a big hit. Maybe this is not fair and maybe Mike Olt will turn out to be a good major league hitter but as things stand now, his value is a lot lower than than it was 3 months ago (at least in some baseball peoples opinion). I could see this same thing happening to Castellanos (and to some degree it has already happened with Porcello).

Yup, I'm in the camp that believes prospects right now are over-valued across the board. All the "Moneyball" publicity has made GMs focus too much on the promise of a prospect becoming a cheap major league player.

If we can get someone like Justin Upton, we still have him on a team-friendly contract for three years.

I know just last season, I was harping about not wanting to limit our team to a three year "window to win" and that we should hold onto more prospects, but I think the market for prospects has changed.

It really depends on the player, though. Under no circumstances would I trade Smyly. In my opinion, he has already proven that he has the command and the stuff to succeed in the major leagues, and he's ready to contribute now. Until either Castellanos or Garcia do that, I'd be willing to trade them. Even if we do give these guys up, though, we have Jackson and Upton for the next three years, and Dirks for the next four. That's enough time to find other prospects to replace them.

Also, I think now is the time to strike on Upton and Drew. They both had disappointing seasons last year, but that only gives us the opportunity to get them at a reasonable price. It's like when you're buying stocks...it's best to buy low, when everyone else is selling, as long as there is legitimate growth potential.

[Tim Mitchell]

Drew and Upton have Tigers interest.
DD is up to it again.
Should that happen, well I would be shocked, but should it happen, we would basically have like ZERO holes in the lineup.
DD is a stud.

[sabretooth]

I've seen some very interesting rumors on MLBTR lately.

First, we signed Kevin Russo. This looks like a depth move, and we need depth at SS anyway. But then...

I saw a rumor earlier today that the Diamondbacks were interested in Jhonny Peralta.

Now, I am seeing a rumor that the Tigers are interested in Stephen Drew.

If you take all three together, coupled with the rumors of our interest in Upton, I could see Peralta being a trade chip in a Castellanos deal for Upton. It makes sense if the D-backs intend to sign Peralta to an extension, at least. I have to imagine Garcia would be included to get Upton, but perhaps if Peralta is included in the deal, we could get by with Castellanos/Peralta/Rondon, then sign Drew and use Russo as depth.

Upton career road #s: 250/325/406/731 wOBA: 320

Drew career road #s: 260/317/414/703 wOBA: 317

Peralta career road #s: 263/324/413/738 wOBA: 323

Stephen Drew isn't even an upgrade over Peralta...Peralta at least has been able to play full-time for the last two years and was highly effective in 2011. It's not that Drew had a bad year...he's been unable to stay on the field since 2010, the last season that he was effective.

Upton has some upside, and is a nice player, but trading our starting SS, a starting pitcher our top prospect doesn't sound like "buying low" to me.

[Casimir]

I've seen some very interesting rumors on MLBTR lately.

First, we signed Kevin Russo. This looks like a depth move, and we need depth at SS anyway. But then...

I saw a rumor earlier today that the Diamondbacks were interested in Jhonny Peralta.

Now, I am seeing a rumor that the Tigers are interested in Stephen Drew.

If you take all three together, coupled with the rumors of our interest in Upton, I could see Peralta being a trade chip in a Castellanos deal for Upton. It makes sense if the D-backs intend to sign Peralta to an extension, at least. I have to imagine Garcia would be included to get Upton, but perhaps if Peralta is included in the deal, we could get by with Castellanos/Peralta/Rondon, then sign Drew and use Russo as depth.

I think Russo is more of a utility move rather than a depth move, if that makes any sense. I guess a utility move gives you depth, though. I think Russo might be the next Santiago, maybe the next Kelly. I don't think the acquisition of Russo is anything more than that.

[tiger337]

Stephen Drew isn't even an upgrade over Peralta...Peralta at least has been able to play full-time for the last two years and was highly effective in 2011. It's not that Drew had a bad year...he's been unable to stay on the field since 2010, the last season that he was effective.

Drew had one very serious injury - a broken ankle - which killed his second half of last year and most of this year. That's different from someone like Guillen who was having one injury after another. Assuming Drew is now fully healed, I wouldn't consider him an injury risk in the future. The question is whether he is indeed fully healed and as strong as he was before the injury. Was his play in September for Oakland an indication that he is back to full strength or is there still a concern? Scouts who saw him play at the end of the year could probably answer that better.

My concern with Peralta is that he played like a 35 year old shortstop last year. He looked to me like someone who ready to completely lose his skills defensively. Offensively, he went back to what he was in 2009-2010. So, three out of his last four years, he has been a .700 OPS guy with average defense at best.

Both have problems, but I see Drew as being a better bet to give them a .750 OP with average defense over the next two years.

[Casimir]

If we can get someone like Justin Upton, we still have him on a team-friendly contract for three years.

Baseball Reference shows 2013 is $9.75 mil, 2014 is $14.25 mil, 2015 is $14.50 mil. I don't know that these are necessarily contract friendly years in as much as they are just guaranteed.

Cots shows a limited no trade clause, with Detroit being one of the original teams listed. Not sure if that is still the case or not. And it is true that it is probably something he can get out of if he wants to.

Justin Upton rf
6 years/$51.25M (2010-15)

■6 years/$51.25M (2010-15)
■signed extension with Arizona 3/3/10
■$1.25M signing bonus
■10:$0.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M
■limited no-trade protection (may block deals to four clubs — originally Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland)

[Gehringer_2]

Drew had one very serious injury - a broken ankle - which killed his second half of last year and most of this year. That's different from someone like Guillen who was having one injury after another. Assuming Drew is now fully healed, I wouldn't consider him an injury risk in the future. The question is whether he is indeed fully healed and as strong as he was before the injury. Was his play in September for Oakland an indication that he is back to full strength or is there still a concern? Scouts who saw him play at the end of the year could probably answer that better.

My concern with Peralta is that he played like a 35 year old shortstop last year. He looked to me like someone who ready to completely lose his skills defensively. Offensively, he went back to what he was in 2009-2010. So, three out of his last four years, he has been a .700 OPS guy with average defense at best.

Both have problems, but I see Drew as being a better bet to give them a .750 OP with average defense over the next two years.

So does any one know if he has come back from the ankle 100%? Ankles can be death to a SS range.

[Walt]

So does any one know if he has come back from the ankle 100%? Ankles can be death to a SS range.

I thought that he looked pretty good during the small sample size of the ALDS.