2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[Shelton]

Trade boesch for Castro. He'd be a perfect fit for wrigley's small outfield, and maybe a change of scenery would help.

Castro is a nice player, but the cubs are going nowhere. They should get something for him while they can.

[alwaysthrowheat]

I would, in a heartbeat. Castro is much better than Castellanos, and plays a much more important role on defense. I would pay more than Castellanos to get Castro, it would probably cost more than that.

No it wouldn't. Castro is an "empty" player.

[TigersSlappy]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

Melky Cabrera, two years/$16 million. Melky Cabrera acuerda con Azulejos por $16 MM - ESPN Deportes … With the Blue Jays.

[irvink]

Good deal or the Jays. Strong lineup. Should be in the mix for the East/Wild Card all year.

[4hzglory]

Good deal or the Jays. Strong lineup. Should be in the mix for the East/Wild Card all year.

Much rather pay the extra $5 mil per year for Hunter. I was borderline in wanting Cabrera for 1 year around $5 mil or Hunter for the 2 yrs/$26 mil, but at 2 years/$16 mil for Cabrera, I think we definitely made the right choice. There is no one else on the market that I would prefer over Hunter for the years/$ they are asking.

[catswithbats]

If I were going to deal with the Cubs, I'd take Barney over Castro. Call me crazy.

[STLTiger69]

If I were going to deal with the Cubs, I'd take Barney over Castro. Call me crazy.

Crazy...!

[sabretooth]

If we can't get way more than DeJesus for Porcello, there's no point in trading him.

I'm hoping this is Porcello/Castellanos for Castro.

Castro's a pretty decent player, but is he really worth a SP and arguably our top remaining prospect?

[sabretooth]

If I were going to deal with the Cubs, I'd take Barney over Castro. Call me crazy.

We already have a second baseman, and one who can hit decently. Barney is a slick fielder, but he's Adam Everett with the bat. I'd be more ready to accept that profile at SS, but we don't really need that at 2B.

Castro would be an upgrade of sorts on Peralta -- younger, cheaper, and he already has better career averages for wOBA and OPS, and is a pretty decent fielder (good range but error-prone, sort of the opposite of Peralta).

I'd definitely take Castro over Barney...not saying that either is that good, but Barney would not be a good fit.

[chasfh]

The Cubs aren't going to trade either Castro or Barney.

The team just locked up Castro at 7/60, and the Cubs definitely think they will contend before they get halfway through that. The only other top SS prospect in the system, Javier Baez, is being converted to 3B in the AFL and is generally thought to eventually outgrow SS, physically. So unless Theo Epstein's plan is to be the Chicago Marlins, they are not going to strip the organization of the only decent shortstop they have.

Darwin Barney is a Gold Glove winner who is also not going anywhere. Even though he's currently a .250/.300/.350 hitter, they think he's making enough improvement in his plate discipline that, coupled with an expected increase in his .271 BABIP, might get him close enough to a .700 OPS player that it will make him a 3+ win player when factoring in his defense.

Given that three of their starters are expected to be average to better than average GB% pitchers (Garza, Samardzjia, Wood), that wouldn't bode for trading their keystone combination any time soon.

[john doe]

Melky to the Blue Jays? Well I be...

[stanpapi]

Call me nuts, but I'd rather have a player of the caliber of torii hunter, who may or may not start to decline in the next couple seasons (although he hasn't shown any signs yet) over a player who set up a fake website to make it look like he didn't cheat. The jays can have his lying ***.

[PuNk42AE]

Melky to the Blue Jays? Well I be...

2 years for 16M

[PuNk42AE]

Call me nuts, but I'd rather have a player of the caliber of torii hunter, who may or may not start to decline in the next couple seasons (although he hasn't shown any signs yet) over a player who set up a fake website to make it look like he didn't cheat. The jays can have his lying ***.

I fully agree. Who cares about the money difference, the Tigers got a good leader and someone who is now one of the highly respected players in the league. On the flip side no one really knows which is the real Melky right now.

[catswithbats]

We already have a second baseman, and one who can hit decently. Barney is a slick fielder, but he's Adam Everett with the bat. I'd be more ready to accept that profile at SS, but we don't really need that at 2B.

You wouldn't consider moving Infante to SS in that instance and dealing Peralta?

I'd give take a hit on offense to have Barney at 2B.

[irvink]

Tony Paul ‏@TonyPaul1984
Non-Hunter notes: Martinez is feeling "great" and should be ready for spring training; Dombrowski won't commit to Andy Dirks for LF yet.

[TigersSlappy]

Tony Paul ‏@TonyPaul1984
Non-Hunter notes: Martinez is feeling "great" and should be ready for spring training; Dombrowski won't commit to Andy Dirks for LF yet.

He won't commit to Dirks because he's still thinking Hamilton.

[will the thrill]

He won't commit to Dirks because he's still thinking Hamilton.

more likely thinkign Cody Ross.....mistake in my opinion

[sabretooth]

If Ross were 3-5 years younger I would probably prefer him over Dirks, but as it is I think Ross could fall off a cliff production-wise at any time, and Dirks should enjoy a couple of years of decent production...I'd rather they just leave Dirks in LF and focus on re-signing Sanchez, improving SS if possible and the bullpen at this point.

[sabretooth]

Taking stock of the team at this point:

OFFENSE

2012 RC vs. 2013 range, 2013 conservative guess

C - Avila - 54 vs. 55 - 90, 65
1b - Fielder - 125 vs. 110 - 130, 125
2b - Infante - 22 (for tigers, 67 overall) vs. 55 - 70, 60
Ss - Peralta - 60 vs. 55 - 80, 65
3b - Cabrera - 137 vs. 120 - 140, 130
Lf - Dirks - 54 vs. 40 - 60, 50
Cf - Jackson - 98 vs. 75 - 95, 85
Rf - Hunter, 86 vs. 80 - 95, 85
Dh - Martinez, 91 (2011) vs. 80 - 100, 90
Bench - Catcher, Santiago, Berry, Garcia, etc. - 86 vs. 40 - 50 (400 PAs less from Berry/Santiago), 40

Overall - 813 vs. 710 - 910, 795

(actual team runs in 2012 were 723, obviously we didn't have Hunter or Martinez, instead of their 86 (from Angels) and 91 (from 2011), we had Boesch's 46 and Delmon's 65 in 2012)

IN SHORT, barring injuries and provided that VMart is able to hit nominally, we should easily outscore our 2012 team total by at least 50 - 70 runs, and we have a good chance to exceed 800 runs if Avila has a bounce-back year, for example, or Peralta no longer sucks at hitting, and so on.

[sabretooth]

PITCHING:

2012 Runs vs. 2013 range, 2013 conservative guess

Verlander - 81 vs 75 - 85, 80
Scherzer - 82 vs 80 - 95, 85
Fister - 73 vs 80 - 90, 85
Sanchez* - 36 (tigers)/95 (full year) vs 85 - 95, 90
Porcello - 101 vs 95 - 105, 100
Other SP** - 85 vs 10 - 20, 15

Starters - 458 (tigers) vs. 425 - 490, 455

Bullpen - 212 vs 180 - 210, 190

Total - 670 vs. 605 - 700, 645

* - assuming Sanchez is re-signed...I know, I know....
** - assuming Sanchez for a full year and the general health of the other SPs (unlike in 2012 where Fister missed 7+ starts)

IN SHORT, Smyly's 18 strong sub-4 ERA starts being replaced by a full-year of sub-4 ERA Sanchez really doesn't change things....

The balance of the replacement starts (10) saw 40 runs allowed in 38 IP -- we should see less replacement starts but more innings racked up by the main guys if healthy (Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer), which should about even out the run totals for the SPs. HOWEVER, the health and longevity of the SPs would reduce the bullpen innings marginally (maybe by 20 IP and 10 or so runs).

Also, I'm counting on much improved defense from 2B (about 10+ runs better) and RF (about 10+ runs better), which might be offset by a backslide at 3b (5+ runs worse), but overall our defense should preserve at least 20 runs versus 2012...this has been baked in around the margins of my projections above.

OVERALL

OFFENSE: 795
PITCHING: 645
PYTHAG: 97 WINS
Let's examine some possible weak spots and see what these potential "breakdowns" could do to this estimate:

Possible Downgrade #1: they let Sanchez go and plug in a back-end SP who allows 110 runs (boosting the team total to 660), Pythag suggests 95 team wins.

Possible Downgrade #2 (includes #1): the bullpen could be a lot worse...if the bullpen allows the 220 runs that they allowed in 2011, add another 30 runs allowed (690 for team runs allowed), Pythag suggests 92 team wins.

Possible Downgrade #3 (includes #1 and #2): VMart comes back and cannot hit well, winds up with a Delmon-esque 65 RC (instead of 90), team offense would be 770 runs, Pythag suggests 90 team wins.

So really, even if we have mediocre performances from the SP and the BP, and even if VMart sucks, and even if Avila and Peralta do not bounce back, and even if Austin Jackson falls back mid-way between his 2012 and his 2011 seasons, we still would be at 90 wins.

The best thing about this team going into 2013 is the lack of black-hole inducing players in the lineup like Boesch and Raburn....true that we didn't see them being as bad as they were going to be....but the projections above still assume that Peralta and Avila have unimpressive seasons, and barely nominal performance from Infante and Dirks and the bench. I think 90+ wins looks good, probably more like 95 wins, provided our bullpen is nominal.

Not bad. I'd like to see an arm in the BP and Sanchez re-signed and a better defensive SS, but at this point I'm feeling pretty good about this team.

[Tim Mitchell]

Sounds like DD wants a RH platoon with Andy Dirks.
Guessing Ross or Hairston somehow.

[sabretooth]

Another more simplistic way to state the scenario above (in rough/rounded terms):

Cabrera/Fielder: 250 RC (about the same as 2011 and 2012)
Jackson/Hunter/VMart: 250 RC (about equal to 2011/2012 - if VMart had repeated 2011)
Avila/Peralta/Infante/Dirks: 250 RC (mid-way between 2011 (265) and 2012 (235))
Bench: 50 RC (20 from the catcher, 10 from Santiago, 10 from Berry and 10 from the balance of guys**)

Total runs: 800

Starting Pitchers: 450 Runs
Bullpen: 200 Runs

Total runs allowed: 650

Basically, the 4 bottom-order starting position players need to beat the bullpen. The top 5 guys need to beat the starting rotation. And the bench needs to add the margin to get the division title.

** - this scenario assumes a true "4th OF" rather than a platoon in LF, for simplicity's sake. If, say, Cody Ross is platooned with Dirks in LF, it would shift things around a little bit, but would probably not affect the overall production much, maybe 5 -10 runs vs. Dirks as your everyday LFer and, say, Berry as the 4th OF.

[alwaysthrowheat]

PITCHING:

2012 Runs vs. 2013 range, 2013 conservative guess

Verlander - 81 vs 75 - 85, 80
Scherzer - 82 vs 80 - 95, 85
Fister - 73 vs 80 - 90, 85
Sanchez* - 36 (tigers)/95 (full year) vs 85 - 95, 90
Porcello - 101 vs 95 - 105, 100
Other SP** - 85 vs 10 - 20, 15

Starters - 458 (tigers) vs. 425 - 490, 455

Bullpen - 212 vs 180 - 210, 190

Total - 670 vs. 605 - 700, 645

* - assuming Sanchez is re-signed...I know, I know....
** - assuming Sanchez for a full year and the general health of the other SPs (unlike in 2012 where Fister missed 7+ starts)

IN SHORT, Smyly's 18 strong sub-4 ERA starts being replaced by a full-year of sub-4 ERA Sanchez really doesn't change things....

The balance of the replacement starts (10) saw 40 runs allowed in 38 IP -- we should see less replacement starts but more innings racked up by the main guys if healthy (Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer), which should about even out the run totals for the SPs. HOWEVER, the health and longevity of the SPs would reduce the bullpen innings marginally (maybe by 20 IP and 10 or so runs).

Also, I'm counting on much improved defense from 2B (about 10+ runs better) and RF (about 10+ runs better), which might be offset by a backslide at 3b (5+ runs worse), but overall our defense should preserve at least 20 runs versus 2012...this has been baked in around the margins of my projections above.

OVERALL

OFFENSE: 795
PITCHING: 645
PYTHAG: 97 WINS
Let's examine some possible weak spots and see what these potential "breakdowns" could do to this estimate:

Possible Downgrade #1: they let Sanchez go and plug in a back-end SP who allows 110 runs (boosting the team total to 660), Pythag suggests 95 team wins.

Possible Downgrade #2 (includes #1): the bullpen could be a lot worse...if the bullpen allows the 220 runs that they allowed in 2011, add another 30 runs allowed (690 for team runs allowed), Pythag suggests 92 team wins.

Possible Downgrade #3 (includes #1 and #2): VMart comes back and cannot hit well, winds up with a Delmon-esque 65 RC (instead of 90), team offense would be 770 runs, Pythag suggests 90 team wins.

So really, even if we have mediocre performances from the SP and the BP, and even if VMart sucks, and even if Avila and Peralta do not bounce back, and even if Austin Jackson falls back mid-way between his 2012 and his 2011 seasons, we still would be at 90 wins.

The best thing about this team going into 2013 is the lack of black-hole inducing players in the lineup like Boesch and Raburn....true that we didn't see them being as bad as they were going to be....but the projections above still assume that Peralta and Avila have unimpressive seasons, and barely nominal performance from Infante and Dirks and the bench. I think 90+ wins looks good, probably more like 95 wins, provided our bullpen is nominal.

Not bad. I'd like to see an arm in the BP and Sanchez re-signed and a better defensive SS, but at this point I'm feeling pretty good about this team.

I love when you do this, Sabre.

[alwaysthrowheat]

You wouldn't consider moving Infante to SS in that instance and dealing Peralta?

I'd give take a hit on offense to have Barney at 2B.

I don't think Infante can play SS every day anymore. Barney would probably be a better bet.

[RatkoVarda]

You wouldn't consider moving Infante to SS in that instance and dealing Peralta?

I'd give take a hit on offense to have Barney at 2B.

If the Tigers got Barney for Porcello, Barney would play SS with Infante at 2b.
It would be easy to flip Peralta to Oak or AZ for a young pitcher.

[alwaysthrowheat]

It would be easy to flip Peralta to Oak or AZ for a young pitcher.

Doesn't mean they'd be good though. Just young.

[benrush]

Sounds like DD wants a RH platoon with Andy Dirks.
Guessing Ross or Hairston somehow.

I really hope we don't spend on Cody Ross or even Hariston. I think Dirks is fine we can always pick up a platoon option in a trade ... the Padres have a couple of those guys laying around.

[john doe]

My apologies if this article was previously linked. Odd Man Rush: Tigers poised to remain AL's elite | Fox News

[sabretooth]

You wouldn't consider moving Infante to SS in that instance and dealing Peralta?

I'd give take a hit on offense to have Barney at 2B.

Yeah, you could try Infante at SS....Barney is a whiz at 2B, that's for sure. And I doubt that this team will be hurting for hitting in the near-term.

[sabretooth]

Another more simplistic way to state the scenario above (in rough/rounded terms):

Cabrera/Fielder: 250 RC (about the same as 2011 and 2012)
Jackson/Hunter/VMart: 250 RC (about equal to 2011/2012 - if VMart had repeated 2011)
Avila/Peralta/Infante/Dirks: 250 RC (mid-way between 2011 (265) and 2012 (235))
Bench: 50 RC (20 from the catcher, 10 from Santiago, 10 from Berry and 10 from the balance of guys**)

Total runs: 800

Starting Pitchers: 450 Runs
Bullpen: 200 Runs

Total runs allowed: 650

Basically, the 4 bottom-order starting position players need to beat the bullpen. The top 5 guys need to beat the starting rotation. And the bench needs to add the margin to get the division title.

** - this scenario assumes a true "4th OF" rather than a platoon in LF, for simplicity's sake. If, say, Cody Ross is platooned with Dirks in LF, it would shift things around a little bit, but would probably not affect the overall production much, maybe 5 -10 runs vs. Dirks as your everyday LFer and, say, Berry as the 4th OF.

The concept of "5-on-5" crystallized in my mind today. In short, playoff teams should expect their top five hitters to beat their starting rotation, and the bottom 4 should beat the bullpen, with the non-platooning bench hitting as gravy. This simplistic structure still leaves interesting internal dynamics for roster construction, of course, but it creates benchmarks that can be immediately useful for goal-setting.

For example, playoff teams generically see their starting pitching "slots" (inclusive of replacement starters) allow 80 - 110 runs each, totaling about 400 - 500 (I would think that ordinarily you'd expect a dispersion of runs of maybe 80, 90, 90, 90, 100, with 10 - 15 replacement starts mixed in). At the same time, the top 5 slots in the hitting lineup should have no one below 80 RCs and at least one bopper over 100, and that should total out to 450+. It would seem to me that the most difficult goal of a playoff team would be to make the top 5 hitters match up and/or "beat" the starting rotation.

For playoff bullpens, they allowed anywhere from 150 - 220 runs in 2012. The bottom four slots in a playoff lineup should produce on average no worse than 60 - 65 RCs apiece, totaling about 250, good enough to "beat" any playoff team's bullpen by a good margin. The most difficult dynamic with the bottom 4 hitters is given that they generally each have a weakness, how to you mix hitters/fielders, or do you go for mediocre-balanced supporting players? In the bullpen, the most difficult thing is to find guys who can pick up the slack for starting pitchers when needed in sixth and seventh innings, especially in "fireman" pressure scenarios.

Add in 3 bench guys (not including regular starting platoon time) for another 40 runs and your playoff team should have 700 - 825 runs offensively, against 550 - 700 runs allowed (using 2012 as the benchmark).

[sabretooth]

I really hope we don't spend on Cody Ross or even Hariston. I think Dirks is fine we can always pick up a platoon option in a trade ... the Padres have a couple of those guys laying around.

Dirks has been an unimpressive hitter over his career, and has the chance to be a black hole, but he is a pretty decent fielder, and I would be satisfied to see them give him the first half of the season to see if he can hold down LF reasonably well.

[Gehringer_2]

Dirks has been an unimpressive hitter over his career, and has the chance to be a black hole, but he is a pretty decent fielder, and I would be satisfied to see them give him the first half of the season to see if he can hold down LF reasonably well.

True. But an 800 OPS and decent glove is the kind of player you can be happy playing until something proven to be better comes along. Or another way of saying- he is no Delmon or Raburn

[TigersSlappy]

Or another way of saying- he is no Delmon or Raburn

Which is really going to affect the posting volume here.

[john doe]

True. But an 800 OPS and decent glove is the kind of player you can be happy playing until something proven to be better comes along. Or another way of saying- he is no Delmon or Raburn

Agreed!

[irvink]

Did not see Beck's latest posted. The highlights:

“I’d say this was our No. 1 priority, finding a bat for the corner outfield,” Dombrowski said. “We’ll see where other things take us. But if we end up with this being our major move of the winter, I would be very happy.”

If they end up with Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly rounding out their rotation, Dombrowski said, “we’d be fine with that.”

That was about all he was willing to say on Sanchez’s situation, other than to emphasize that the outfield was the main offseason priority. But if you remember a couple offseasons ago, he became similarly mum on Magglio Ordonez’s situation as the offseason wore on, before they eventually re-signed him in mid-December.

On LF and the BP

“My instinct,” Dombrowski continued, “is that we would add somebody that could hit from the right-hand side that, if those guys don’t make it, could go out there and play with Dirks. But we’ll wait and see.”

Dombrowski’s approach on the bullpen was much the same as it was a few weeks ago, sticking to the approach of letting Bruce Rondon compete for the job with other current relievers. He also didn’t rule out a move there, either.

beck.mlblogs.com/2012/11/16/dombrowski-leaves-lf-rotation-plans-open/

[john doe]

Sounds as though D.D. is "playing possum" just a bit, particularly with regard to Sanchez who was missing in his comments. I would guess that a low key approach is best at this juncture.

[tiger337]

True. But an 800 OPS and decent glove is the kind of player you can be happy playing until something proven to be better comes along. Or another way of saying- he is no Delmon or Raburn

He's not Young/Raburn, but I don't know that he's an .800 OPS in a full season either.

[STLTiger69]

Did not see Beck's latest posted. The highlights:



On LF and the BP



beck.mlblogs.com/2012/11/16/dombrowski-leaves-lf-rotation-plans-open/

“My instinct,” Dombrowski continued, “is that we would add somebody that could hit from the right-hand side that, if those guys don’t make it, could go out there and play with Dirks. But we’ll wait and see.”


Good catch Irvink, but I'm not sure what it means. "IF THOSE GUYS DON'T MAKE IT" I think is Dombrowski speak for Garcia, Raburn and Castellanos. I read this as they are looking for a veteran that might be available to play outfield part time with Dirks as a Plan B if the kids are not ready. Not that the Tigers are going to get a RH outfielder to take over another corner outfield spot as a starter...

[irvink]

He's not Young/Raburn, but I don't know that he's an .800 OPS in a full season either.

Agree with this. I'd be thrilled if we got an 800 OPS for a full season from Dirks.