2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[PuNk42AE]

Right now the Dodgers have 5/6 SP with them currently, so Ryu would most likely take them out of any other SP moves.

[vannzee]

I wonder if Below will have a spot on the team or even im the teams fringe plans after his struggles in Toledo to end the year. Pitchers like Duane are not hard to find but they are also not from Britton. Ill be rooting for him. Im just not so sure that after they left him in Toledo for September that ge will have a spot or a chance at a spot.

[TigersSlappy]

I wonder if Below will have a spot on the team or even im the teams fringe plans after his struggles in Toledo to end the year. Pitchers like Duane are not hard to find but they are also not from Britton. Ill be rooting for him. Im just not so sure that after they left him in Toledo for September that ge will have a spot or a chance at a spot.

I root for the native son too....but I think he's already been passed by in the Tiger's system and will have more value as a throw in piece to a pitching starved team. He's shown the possibility of being a LH #5 starter which isn't without value.

[TheCouga]

This is very unlike the Tigers. They have to be trying to bump Rondon's trade value.

This seems more likely than taking what they say at face value.

We all know that you can't do that with DD, but people always fall for it.

[TheCouga]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm

The rumor of a Justin Upton deal to Det in a package that included Castellanos, A.Garcia & Smyly definitely makes sense if Dbacks add piece

I'd be totally fine with giving up Castellanos and Garcia for Upton, but I do not want to give up Smyly. I like him a lot...even more than Trevor Bauer at this point. If you swap Smyly out of this trade and add in Porcello, I'm fine with this.

I do think Castellanos and Garcia are overrated. Garcia, despite his progress this year, still strikes out a lot, and Castellanos was not great in AA.

[Yoda]

Castellanos is overrated because he had a really bad month in AA as a 20 yr old?

[Yoda]

This seems more likely than taking what they say at face value.

We all know that you can't do that with DD, but people always fall for it.

Yup. It could also be a maneuver to keep an agent from driving up the price on them. They don't want to look desperate for a closer.

[Nastradamus]

I think you could get a lot more value for that 3some regardless of whether they are overrated right now or not. That's the bottom line. Spend the 13 mil on Hunter and keep the prospects or trade them for something else.

[Nastradamus]

I really hope we don't sign a closer. I don't want Rondon to close, but I do like him as our 4th or 5th best RH out of the pen. That's pretty filthy. Let AA close for Christ's sake. Benoit,Coke,Dote is a solid setup group then you have something like Villareal,Downs and Rondon to play around with

[froggyvk]

Nothing personal, but...

Give Bauer 100 innings at the major league level and four appearances between the World Series and the Championship Series and we'll get back together and compare notes then to see who is more likely to win the Cy Young or be a middle of the rotation pitcher.

I feel pretty confident in saying the Rays would trade Jeremy Hellickson for Trevor Bauer straight up. So, yea, I'll stand by my evaluation of Bauer. I believe the Rays will trade Hellickson and Wade Davis this offseason.

[TheCouga]

Castellanos is overrated because he had a really bad month in AA as a 20 yr old?

There are other reasons, too. First of all, I think almost all teams overrate prospects these days. Despite all the hype and promise, very few actually pan out. Second of all, both Castellanos' and Garcia's K/BB ratios concern me. Nick's K/BB ratio in Erie was 76/14. It's only half a season, but it wasn't particularly good before that either.

[TheCouga]

I really hope we don't sign a closer. I don't want Rondon to close, but I do like him as our 4th or 5th best RH out of the pen. That's pretty filthy. Let AA close for Christ's sake. Benoit,Coke,Dote is a solid setup group then you have something like Villareal,Downs and Rondon to play around with

Ten times over I would spend $10MM to get an upgrade at SS rather than sign some middling closer. As much as I like him, I would like to see us trade Jhonny and spend his $6MM plus what Valverde got last year to secure a $15MM shortstop. The problem is that I don't think there is one available. So we may be better off just spending it on someone like Upton.

I'm comfortable that, with the people we have on our roster right now, someone can close. I don't know if that will be Rondon later in the year, or whether Benoit/Dotel/Coke/AA can do it by committee. But I think we will be fine with what we have plus maybe another minor league free agent pickup or two to add depth.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Would like another good OBP guy for #1 or #2 in the lineup. If not Ellsbury, how about Melky Cabrera?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

What are the odds that Arizona would include Aaron Hill in a Justin Upton trade? And would getting Aaron Hill make you anymore inclined to make that deal, even if you had to give up more than you already would?

[Abe Fromen]

I really doubt AZ would want to move Hill but it wouldn't make much sense unless the additional player we gave up was Infante.

Though Hill was brought up at SS, he wasn't very good at it and wouldn't be an upgrade over Peralta in the field.

[Yoda]

There are other reasons, too. First of all, I think almost all teams overrate prospects these days. Despite all the hype and promise, very few actually pan out. Second of all, both Castellanos' and Garcia's K/BB ratios concern me. Nick's K/BB ratio in Erie was 76/14. It's only half a season, but it wasn't particularly good before that either.

So now you're jumping on the "all prospects are overrated and should be traded" bandwagon? You know as much as anyone that you can't do that. You need cheap players under team control. If you have an actual reason that you think they're going to fail, then that's great. But so far you don't seem to have one. And Nicks K/BB has always been just fine. Nothing great but good enough. Again you're only criticism seems to revolve around a horrible August.

[Nastradamus]

I feel pretty confident in saying the Rays would trade Jeremy Hellickson for Trevor Bauer straight up. So, yea, I'll stand by my evaluation of Bauer. I believe the Rays will trade Hellickson and Wade Davis this offseason.

Ha, they most certainly would not. They may trade those 2 this offseason, it makes sense(though dealing Shields makes more sense than either, not that they are mutually exclusive), but they would not deal Hellickson for Bauer.

[Nastradamus]

There are other reasons, too. First of all, I think almost all teams overrate prospects these days. Despite all the hype and promise, very few actually pan out. Second of all, both Castellanos' and Garcia's K/BB ratios concern me. Nick's K/BB ratio in Erie was 76/14. It's only half a season, but it wasn't particularly good before that either.

I agree that prospects are overvalued, but its a numbers game too. You might have to keep your top 5 to make sure you get the 2-3 that work out. You could be trading the next Maybin/Miller, you could be trading the next Miguel Cabrera. The other problem with your theory is that while prospects are overrated, they are by far the most valuable asset in all of baseball when they do work out. 6-7 years of cheap, controllable labor. They are the foundation of your team.

[Nastradamus]

Would like another good OBP guy for #1 or #2 in the lineup. If not Ellsbury, how about Melky Cabrera?

He could be a solid pickup, but he could also be the guy he was for Atlanta and NY pre-steroids.

[Nastradamus]

What are the odds that Arizona would include Aaron Hill in a Justin Upton trade? And would getting Aaron Hill make you anymore inclined to make that deal, even if you had to give up more than you already would?

WHere do we play Hill? Most years he's not much different than Infante.

[Tim Mitchell]

Justin Uptonis only 25 and has not hit his prime yet... or his potential. That said, I do not like Upton nor do I think he is a prime target for our club.Uptons a headcase, does not hit leftys that well, and plays nowhere near his potential.While his speed would help, Id rather have Melky and a speedy SS. Melky blasts off on leftys. Kinda what we need.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Justin Uptonis only 25 and has not hit his prime yet... or his potential. That said, I do not like Upton nor do I think he is a prime target for our club.Uptons a headcase, does not hit leftys that well, and plays nowhere near his potential.While his speed would help, Id rather have Melky and a speedy SS. Melky blasts off on leftys. Kinda what we need.

Upton hits lefties at a .284/.388/.512 and .900 OPS clip for his career. He hits righties at .275/.345/.463 and .808 OPS.

Melky hits lefties at a .286/.337/.414 and .752 OPS for his career. I'm guessing you didn't look this up.

[alwaysthrowheat]

There are other reasons, too. First of all, I think almost all teams overrate prospects these days. Despite all the hype and promise, very few actually pan out. Second of all, both Castellanos' and Garcia's K/BB ratios concern me. Nick's K/BB ratio in Erie was 76/14. It's only half a season, but it wasn't particularly good before that either.

It's more important to look at age vs. level than stats at the minor league level. Plate discipline is something that can be taught. Garcia's plate discipline was absolutely awful last year at A ball. It looked much improved at the major league level.

[vannzee]

He could be a solid pickup, but he could also be the guy he was for Atlanta and NY pre-steroids.

Pre-steroids? Melky was a very good hitter for the Royals in 2011 and reportedly passed several drug tests that season.

[RatkoVarda]

Considering that he was a borderline major leaguer with the Yankees, and just horrible with Atlanta in 2010, I think it is more reasonable than not to assume that he was 'roiding it up with the Royals in 2011.

[pyrotigers]

If steroids could turn a player from a replacement level guy to a very good mlb hitter I'd drive some down to Brennan Boesch today

[STLTiger69]

Considering that he was a borderline major leaguer with the Yankees, and just horrible with Atlanta in 2010, I think it is more reasonable than not to assume that he was 'roiding it up with the Royals in 2011.

+1

Apparently, the synthetic testosterone tests are somewhat hard to get a positive on;

Per Tom Verducci;



"Synthetic testosterone, which aids in strength gain, muscle recovery and the prevention of tissue breakdown, has become popular because of how quickly it acts and leaves the system when measured by routine drug screening -- less than 24 hours, according to some reports. Players believe they can use the synthetic testosterone, which can be applied through creams, gels and patches, immediately after being tested or before off days without fear of being caught as part of a year-round regimen."

Read More: Synthetic testosterone latest*doping problem for Major League Baseball - Tom Verducci - SI.com


My whole issue with Melky Cabrera is which one is going to sign a new contract? The guy who batted a .906 OPS in 2012 and was suspended 50 games or the guy who had .671 OPS in 2010 with Atlanta. What would you pay the .902 OPS guy vs the .671 OPS player and keep in mind, if he gets caught again, he'll be suspended for even longer....

[MC24]

Hunter said he's going to sign quick and already knows who he wants to play for. Hopefully we sold him on playing for us.

[Yoda]

So what... sign Melky and hope he juices all year and puts up MVP numbers.

[Nastradamus]

Pre-steroids? Melky was a very good hitter for the Royals in 2011 and reportedly passed several drug tests that season.

You're 100% right if you are accusing me of speculating. The guy was incredibly average and then blew up the last 2 years out of nowhere,eventually failing a drug test. Its pretty common knowledge that the users are ahead of the testers. A few passed tests dont' prove anything at all. I don't have proof that he did use, but if I'm investing money in the guy, I have to work with what I have. I'd be very leery of Melky. I don't mind if they take the gamble, but I don't necessarily prefer it or expect it to work either.

[irvink]

In defense of Melky, who I think is the most ideal FA target for the Tigers...

2011 and 2012 were his age 26 and 27 seasons. Yes, he was an out-of-shape disaster for the Braves in 2010, but in 2009 (in 540 PAs) he did OPS 752 for the Yankees at age 24.

Maybe his 2012 taste of superstardom was partially fueled by BABIP and testosterone, but he'll only be 28 in 2013. I think he should at least be able to approach his 2011 numbers and will likely only require a one year deal. I'd bet on him having a better 2013 than Tori Hunter, who appears to have the Tigers hot and bothered.

Tigers, Rangers both want Torii Hunter, who says he'll sign somewhere soon - CBSSports.com

[sabretooth]

Melky Cabrera has a career .750 OPS against RH and LH with mediocre on-base and power, hits tons of groundballs, and is a mediocre-at-best outfielder who is exiting his athletic prime.

Sounds perfect for the Tigers.

[Nastradamus]

About to turn 28 is exiting your prime? I think you took it a little too far there.

[STLTiger69]

In defense of Melky, who I think is the most ideal FA target for the Tigers...

2011 and 2012 were his age 26 and 27 seasons. Yes, he was an out-of-shape disaster for the Braves in 2010, but in 2009 (in 540 PAs) he did OPS 752 for the Yankees at age 24.

Sorry but I cannot disagree with you more about Melky being a "the most ideal FA target".

[sabretooth]

About to turn 28 is exiting your prime? I think you took it a little too far there.

Uh...check again, about to turn 29...he was born August of 1984.

[Nastradamus]

Uh...check again, about to turn 29...he was born August of 1984.

I'm sorry, he's already turned 28. It ain't exactly almost August either though and it doesn't change my overall point. We are talking about a 1 year deal and we are talking about a FA, where that is about as young as you get most of the time. Baseball players aren't dropping off at or close to 29 for the most part.


edit - and I don't even want the guy!

[CapitalTigers]

Knobler points out that Hunter will either land in Detroit or Texas, both actively pursuing. Hopefully Detroit.

[john doe]

An emphatic "NO" re. Melky and a "hope not" on the proposed Upton scenarios.

[STLTiger69]

I'll be fair and say that perhaps Melky could be a good addition to any team. The problem is for any amount of money that the Tigers would pay (I don't really care if it's "only" $4-$5M or $7-$8M) could be going into the basket of a more proven player without risking getting a 100 game suspension for testing positive a second time.

If the Tigers were to get Melky, then that means they will not go after Hamilton or Hunter, or just about any other decent outfield options that are currently available (how many extra corner outfielder do the Tigers need to have on the roster?!?) and then the Tigers would go into 2013 and keeping their fingers crossed that Melky can do it.

I just don't think the risk (what his production will be and if he tests positive for a second time) outweighs the price reduction that comes with Melky Cabrera going into 2013.

[sabretooth]

I'm sorry, he's already turned 28. It ain't exactly almost August either though and it doesn't change my overall point. We are talking about a 1 year deal and we are talking about a FA, where that is about as young as you get most of the time. Baseball players aren't dropping off at or close to 29 for the most part.


edit - and I don't even want the guy!

I see your point, I was just razzin' on Melky....I didn't even notice that you didn't like him!