2012-13 Offseason Discussion

**eastside billee** · 11-09-2012, 10:11 AM

If I were GM (and I always assume that I'm spending MY money) I just wouldn't be bothered with Upton. He's just not that great and I'm just not that into him. I also wouldn't sign Sanchez for that kind of money. That's just crazy cash.

**Nastradamus** · 11-09-2012, 11:03 AM

Sanchez won't get that, but it won't be that far off either. 15 mil was always going to be the general range. I'll predict 5/65, possibly with a 6th year team option for another 15.

**benrush** · 11-09-2012, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by Nastradamus

Can't say I agree with much of this. Illitch isn't selling, but he might die. I'm sure Chris Illitch is a great guy, but he's also a businessman and the current model is not good business. He would probably operate with a lesser payroll or sell the team IMO. Who knows if he even has a passion for baseball.

Why does this keep coming up? MYTH: Mike Illitch spends his money on the Tigers payroll because he is a fan and wants to win. There is a direct correlation to when the Tigers started spending money and when the family bought a majority ownership stake in the Motor City Casino. The increase in interest from the Tigers has helped increase the Casino, Little Ceasers and the parking lots in and around the area. About 20 years ago the Illitchs bought a ton of property for peanuts in the City and don't pay any tax on it. So if they can capitilize on brining more people to the city it helps them significantly!

The Current Model: Prince Fielder signing helped increase revenue by over 30 percent last year. From a ownership perspective which players do you think help drive ticket sales, merchandise sales, tv viewership etc. Better?

White Sox 2012 Payroll
Jake Peavy 17 million
Adam Dunn 14 million
Kevin Youkilis 15 million
Alex Rios 12.5 million
Paul Konerko 12 million
Total: 69 million

Tigers 2012 payroll
Prince Fielder 23 million
Miguel Cabrera 21 million
Justin Verlander 20 Million
Total: 64 million

What team got a better ROI? Obviously it was the Tigers from a financial standpoint. The cable TV ratings are a huge revenue generater for a couple of reasons: 1. DVR use is on the rise and advertisers have a better shot with live sporting events then any other form of tv show on the market. 2. The advertisiments around the stadium are now reaching an audience both in the stadium and on TV. This is extremely valuable. Fielder's signing bumped ticket sales by almost 25 percent over last year, in a year that they raised ticket prices by 10 percent.

Illitch family is one of the most dangerous owners in baseball. Forbes ranked them the thrid richest in MLB. When you have a casino that generates 180 million per year in Net Income you can do a lot of things other teams simply cannot do. Even in a down year where the Tigers lose money, they can use the loss to offset gains in other business which reduces their tax liability. The stadium debt has been paid down by almost 100 million over the last three years due to the Casino sending Dividends over to the Tigers. The new stadium for the Redwings could be entirely financed by the Net Income in the Casino by paying dividends to the Wings.

Bottom Line: Stop thinking Chris Illitch is Larry Dolan or the Glass dude in KC. Both those guys own a baseball team and that's it. They are cheap becuase they have no other businesses to afford risk. Sports ownership is usually about growing your other business interest and that's why prominent business people look to buy sports franchises. Gilbert bought the Cavs then expanded his sub/prime mortgage business in OHIO!

**John_Brian_K** · 11-09-2012, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by benrush

Why does this keep coming up? MYTH: Mike Illitch spends his money on the Tigers payroll because he is a fan and wants to win. There is a direct correlation to when the Tigers started spending money and when the family bought a majority ownership stake in the Motor City Casino. The increase in interest from the Tigers has helped increase the Casino, Little Ceasers and the parking lots in and around the area. About 20 years ago the Illitchs bought a ton of property for peanuts in the City and don't pay any tax on it. So if they can capitilize on brining more people to the city it helps them significantly!

The Current Model: Prince Fielder signing helped increase revenue by over 30 percent last year. From a ownership perspective which players do you think help drive ticket sales, merchandise sales, tv viewership etc. Better?

White Sox 2012 Payroll
Jake Peavy 17 million
Adam Dunn 14 million
Kevin Youkilis 15 million
Alex Rios 12.5 million
Paul Konerko 12 million
Total: 69 million

Tigers 2012 payroll
Prince Fielder 23 million
Miguel Cabrera 21 million
Justin Verlander 20 Million
Total: 64 million

What team got a better ROI? Obviously it was the Tigers from a financial standpoint. The cable TV ratings are a huge revenue generater for a couple of reasons: 1. DVR use is on the rise and advertisers have a better shot with live sporting events then any other form of tv show on the market. 2. The advertisiments around the stadium are now reaching an audience both in the stadium and on TV. This is extremely valuable. Fielder's signing bumped ticket sales by almost 25 percent over last year, in a year that they raised ticket prices by 10 percent.

Illitch family is one of the most dangerous owners in baseball. Forbes ranked them the thrid richest in MLB. When you have a casino that generates 180 million per year in Net Income you can do a lot of things other teams simply cannot do. Even in a down year where the Tigers lose money, they can use the loss to offset gains in other business which reduces their tax liability. The stadium debt has been paid down by almost 100 million over the last three years due to the Casino sending Dividends over to the Tigers. The new stadium for the Redwings could be entirely financed by the Net Income in the Casino by paying dividends to the Wings.

Bottom Line: Stop thinking Chris Illitch is Larry Dolan or the Glass dude in KC. Both those guys own a baseball team and that's it. They are cheap becuase they have no other businesses to afford risk. Sports ownership is usually about growing your other business interest and that's why prominent business people look to buy sports franchises. Gilbert bought the Cavs then expanded his sub/prime mortgage business in OHIO!

That may have been true back in the day, but Illitch is basically the crypt keeper right now and I think he has other things on his mind rather than making even MORE money. At some point money just will not matter anymore. Look at what George Lucas just did....he sold Lucas Films for 4 BILLION and donated ALL of it to charity...dude is already a billionaire just like Illitch so at some point money does not become to main/sole factor.

**chasfh** · 11-09-2012, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by tiger337

I'll at least wait until Castellanos hits at double-A before I start making bets like that. I'm not disappointed in his progress at all, but he has a ways to go. Rusty Staub had a 131 OPS+ in his age 25-34 seasons. Right now, Castellanos probably has as much chance as being Andy Marte as being better than Rusty Staub.

This is not to say I'd do the trade for Upton though. They would only get Upton for three years (as opposed to 10+ with Staub) and I'm not sure how he fits into their budget or the extent of his personal issues.

While I can't really disagree with any of the practical things you say about Castellanos versus Staub here, if I am in the role of GM, I bet on Castellanos. I understand that's making a bet on potential versus a hypothetical certainty, but I also think he has that much upside.

**chasfh** · 11-09-2012, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by Nastradamus

Sanchez won't get that, but it won't be that far off either. 15 mil was always going to be the general range. I'll predict 5/65, possibly with a 6th year team option for another 15.

I said back on Page 2 that Sanchez would get 5/70 at minimum, so I'll stick with that.

**4hzglory** · 11-09-2012, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by John_Brian_K

That may have been true back in the day, but Illitch is basically the crypt keeper right now and I think he has other things on his mind rather than making even MORE money. At some point money just will not matter anymore. Look at what George Lucas just did....he sold Lucas Films for 4 BILLION and donated ALL of it to charity...dude is already a billionaire just like Illitch so at some point money does not become to main/sole factor.

I think what he is saying is that when the team gets passed on to his children, things won't neccessarily need to change because they are losing $. That it may actually be more profitable for the Illitch family to spend extra $ to keep the Tigers interesting even if the Tigers themselves lose some $.

**benrush** · 11-09-2012, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by John_Brian_K

That may have been true back in the day, but Illitch is basically the crypt keeper right now and I think he has other things on his mind rather than making even MORE money. At some point money just will not matter anymore. Look at what George Lucas just did....he sold Lucas Films for 4 BILLION and donated ALL of it to charity...dude is already a billionaire just like Illitch so at some point money does not become to main/sole factor.

Chris Illitch is behind the wheel now! They have been trying to open up a casino in Long Island for some time now. They have been re-investing in their businesses at an alarming rate. Why would they do that if they were going to donate the proceeds to charity? They have grown their net worth by over 2 billion dollars in less than 5 years. Not sure what evidence you have suggesting anything to the contrary.

**ballmich** · 11-09-2012, 11:37 AM

Originally Posted by chasfh

I would bet on Castellanos having a better career than Staub. Pass.

You should find one of the Mitt Romney's running around in the political forum. They love to bet over there.

**ballmich** · 11-09-2012, 11:45 AM

I don't understand the surprise on Sanchez's reported asking price. He's the top SP on the board for a number of teams, and second on the board for those that like Greinke better. Anyone who thought he was going to go for less than 5-6 years and at $15MM+ per season, should really re-visit the past five offseasons and look at the contracts doled out to the top free agents.

I'm sure the Tigers aren't surprised by the going price. And if they are, then they should have traded for one season of Dan Haren and the much smaller commitment.

**tiger337** · 11-09-2012, 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by benrush

Bottom Line: Stop thinking Chris Illitch is Larry Dolan or the Glass dude in KC. Both those guys own a baseball team and that's it. They are cheap becuase they have no other businesses to afford risk. Sports ownership is usually about growing your other business interest and that's why prominent business people look to buy sports franchises. Gilbert bought the Cavs then expanded his sub/prime mortgage business in OHIO!

There are a lot of situations between the ones the Tigers and Royals are in. I don't think anyone suggested they will become like the Royals, but they might not always be in a situation where the owner spends $214 million on a Prince Fielder after his $50 million dollar DH goes down with an injury. I believe the Tigers are in a unique situation now due to Mike Illitch's age and passion for a championship. You are confident it will continue after he dies. I don't share that confidence and am taking a wait and see approach.

**Nastradamus** · 11-09-2012, 12:42 PM

I wonder if they'd flip Porcello in division for a guy like Willingham.

**benrush** · 11-09-2012, 12:55 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

There are a lot of situations between the ones the Tigers and Royals are in. I don't think anyone suggested they will become like the Royals, but they might not always be in a situation where the owner spends $214 million on a Prince Fielder after his $50 million dollar DH goes down with an injury. I believe the Tigers are in a unique situation now due to Mike Illitch's age and passion for a championship. You are confident it will continue after he dies. I don't share that confidence and am taking a wait and see approach.

Agree to a point. I don't think for a second that the Tigers have a blank check book. The way the team is currently constructed they pay three players half of the payroll. They only have four players making over 10 million have not been linked to that many names thus far. What they have shown is a willingness to pay for high end free agents that have name recognition. When the Wings struck out on the big names they called it quits and didn't sign anyone. They tend to overpay for big names ... but history has shown that the big names help drive revenue. Fielder earned his money in Year 1 of the contract and probably earned Year 2's money already. That's how big of a financial impact he made.

Last year the Tigers spent 26 million on free agent signings for 2012, it easy to see the Tigers spending even more by simply adding a fourth starter and corner outfielder. Does signing Pagan for 4 years 48 million and Sanchez for 5 years 75 million generate the additional bump in revenue that the Prince signing genereated? Why are they linked to Hamilton?

Hamilton 5 years 120 million
24 million a year

Sanchez 15 million a year
Pagan 12 million a year
29 million

Which group generates more revenue? Which group is better at living up to the contract? If I had money on it I would take Hamilton in a second, but that's me!

**JustinCylander** · 11-09-2012, 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by benrush

Agree to a point. I don't think for a second that the Tigers have a blank check book. The way the team is currently constructed they pay three players half of the payroll. They only have four players making over 10 million have not been linked to that many names thus far. What they have shown is a willingness to pay for high end free agents that have name recognition. When the Wings struck out on the big names they called it quits and didn't sign anyone. They tend to overpay for big names ... but history has shown that the big names help drive revenue. Fielder earned his money in Year 1 of the contract and probably earned Year 2's money already. That's how big of a financial impact he made.

Last year the Tigers spent 26 million on free agent signings for 2012, it easy to see the Tigers spending even more by simply adding a fourth starter and corner outfielder. Does signing Pagan for 4 years 48 million and Sanchez for 5 years 75 million generate the additional bump in revenue that the Prince signing genereated? Why are they linked to Hamilton?

Hamilton 5 years 120 million
24 million a year

Sanchez 15 million a year
Pagan 12 million a year
29 million

Which group generates more revenue? Which group is better at living up to the contract? If I had money on it I would take Hamilton in a second, but that's me!

except Mr I doesn't care about revenue right now, he wants a ring.

**TigerNation** · 11-09-2012, 02:45 PM

Originally Posted by Nastradamus

I wonder if they'd flip Porcello in division for a guy like Willingham.

I'm sure they'd have no problem doing that.

It's not like they'd fear Porcello pitching against them, he's not good, so who cares?

Of course, not sure Minnesota would do that.

**Nastradamus** · 11-09-2012, 04:10 PM

They are supposedly shopping him for an SP. I can't imagine they could get an offer better than Porcello.

**KleShreen** · 11-09-2012, 04:10 PM

I don't know if it was posted earlier in the thread, but this courtesy of Twitter:

From @HardballTalk

The Tigers are going to go with Bruce Rondon as their closer The Tigers are going to go with Bruce Rondon as their closer | HardballTalk #mlb #hbt

WOO!

**drownwithyou** · 11-09-2012, 04:12 PM

I like how they got that from giving him a chance at the job, great work HBT.

**Eric Cioe** · 11-09-2012, 04:13 PM

Knobler says the Tigers will stay in house for the closer position, and give Rondon a crack at it.

The Tigers are going to go with Bruce Rondon as their closer | HardballTalk

I have no problem with staying in house, and Rondon might be good. They have other options, too, with Dotel and Benoit and Alburquerue and Coke and Villareal. But I hate the idea of anointing a guy without a pitch in the MLB as a potential high leverage guy based on nothing more than velocity.

**T&P_Fan** · 11-09-2012, 04:46 PM

I agree with what benrush says about Chris Illitch. Chris already runs the Tigers and is also pretty outspoken about their success being important to Illitch Holdings. Tigers are in good hands for decades to come.

**tiger337** · 11-09-2012, 05:13 PM

Decades? I don't even know what the country will look like decades from now. Never mind the Tigers.

**pyrotigers** · 11-09-2012, 05:34 PM

Bruce Rondon seems terrible, so he's a perfect fit as the closer for the Detroit Tigers

Originally Posted by tiger337

Decades? I don't even know what the country will look like decades from now. Never mind the Tigers.

In 2028 the NFL will be banned due to concussions, the Ford Family will want to stay involved with sports so they buy the Tigers.

This would lead to a grim 50 years without success for the club, but fortunately the earth is destroyed via alien attack in 2031. The last game played in human history is a 5-3 defeat for the Tigers @ San Jose (the Athletics finally moved) when closer Muhammad Rodriguez and his amazing 138 mph fastball (bionic arm) walk in three runs in the bottom of the 9th.

**Yoda** · 11-09-2012, 05:40 PM

This is very unlike the Tigers. They have to be trying to bump Rondon's trade value.

**ROMAD1** · 11-09-2012, 05:42 PM

crud...the long history of Winter proclamations by the Tiger front offices has not been a glorious one.

Soriano...

**Dan Gilmore** · 11-09-2012, 06:20 PM

Knobler said Rondon would get a chance to be the closer, the linked story bumped that to the Tigers are going to make Rondon the closer. I wouldn't read too much into one guy saying in November that he will be given a chance at the job.

**sabretooth** · 11-09-2012, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by pyrotigers

Bruce Rondon seems terrible, so he's a perfect fit as the closer for the Detroit Tigers

In 2028 the NFL will be banned due to concussions, the Ford Family will want to stay involved with sports so they buy the Tigers.

This would lead to a grim 50 years without success for the club, but fortunately the earth is destroyed via alien attack in 2031. The last game played in human history is a 5-3 defeat for the Tigers @ San Jose (the Athletics finally moved) when closer Muhammad Rodriguez and his amazing 138 mph fastball (bionic arm) walk in three runs in the bottom of the 9th.

...and the remnants of Earth left spinning into the void will be without any functioning economy, leaving Hockey as the lone surviving sport.

**sabretooth** · 11-09-2012, 06:43 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

There are a lot of situations between the ones the Tigers and Royals are in. I don't think anyone suggested they will become like the Royals, but they might not always be in a situation where the owner spends $214 million on a Prince Fielder after his $50 million dollar DH goes down with an injury. I believe the Tigers are in a unique situation now due to Mike Illitch's age and passion for a championship. You are confident it will continue after he dies. I don't share that confidence and am taking a wait and see approach.

I appreciate benrush's post, because it very reasonably and intelligently portrays a different side of the argument of the team's financial capacity than the one you usually see presented by fans on MTS.

That having been said, I hesitate to support benrush's statements for much the same reason that I don't support the opposite conclusions...we just don't have the information necessary to know what the team's capacity really is, when everything from TV/merchandise/concession/revenue sharing/debt/other MLB contracts are factored in (which we don't know much about), not to mention the interplay between various holdings of the ownership (which we absolutely know very little about), and then the ownership's personal motivations (which are a parlor game at best).

For the same reason I don't typically support strong statements about on-field performance more than maybe 2 - 3 years out, with few exceptions. Even the great hitters are a bit of a crapshoot beyond that point, to say nothing of the rest of them....then don't even mention pitchers.

**sabretooth** · 11-09-2012, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by 4hzglory

I think what he is saying is that when the team gets passed on to his children, things won't neccessarily need to change because they are losing $. That it may actually be more profitable for the Illitch family to spend extra $ to keep the Tigers interesting even if the Tigers themselves lose some $.

A great point -- there are loss-leaders in business conglomerates, and sometimes today's loss-leader is tomorrow's cash cow (and vice-versa).

Business executives, particularly those in sports, rarely make financially strategic decisions based on budgets...it's far more involved than that.

**will the thrill** · 11-09-2012, 07:55 PM

Leyland is so much better without a closer, hopefully Rondon isn'[t lights out in the spring and we get a closer by committee

**PuNk42AE** · 11-09-2012, 07:58 PM

Originally Posted by will the thrill

Leyland is so much better without a closer, hopefully Rondon isn't lights out in the spring and we get a closer by committee

When has this proven true? Because Coke was the closer in the end of the playoffs?

**DaYooperASBDT** · 11-09-2012, 08:38 PM

Jacoby Ellsbury. Get er dun.

Ellsbury
Jackson
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Dirks
Peralta
Avila
Infante

**will the thrill** · 11-09-2012, 11:42 PM

Originally Posted by PuNk42AE

When has this proven true? Because Coke was the closer in the end of the playoffs?

I don't think Coke was the "closer" Leyland actually went with productive matchups and used a lefty to face the heart of the Yankee order that hits lefties like Quinten Berry. Leyland has no creativity when he thinks his bullpen is "set" and it gets him in trouble in my opinion.

**PuNk42AE** · 11-09-2012, 11:51 PM

So when was it proven that he's good at CbC?

**spikesglaring** · 11-10-2012, 11:00 AM

I'm disappointed the Red Sox are about to sign David Ross. He would have been perfect alongside Avila.

**PuNk42AE** · 11-10-2012, 11:40 AM

Sounds like the Ross deal is done now. 2 years 6.2M

I wonder who won the Ryu bid, sounds like LAD right now.

**irvink** · 11-10-2012, 12:32 PM

Yep. Dodgers won it.

Dylan Hernandez ‏@dylanohernandez
Official: #Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Retweeted by Mike DiGiovanna

**ballmich** · 11-10-2012, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by Nastradamus

I wonder if they'd flip Porcello in division for a guy like Willingham.

We already have a DH.

**ballmich** · 11-10-2012, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by irvink

Yep. Dodgers won it.

Dylan Hernandez ‏@dylanohernandez
Official: #Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Retweeted by Mike DiGiovanna

That's good. The Dodgers were or are in on Sanchez, reportedly. If they sign Ryu, perhaps that takes one suitor out of the running.

**PuNk42AE** · 11-10-2012, 02:01 PM

Sounded like they were interested in bringing back Kuroda too.

**cruzer1** · 11-10-2012, 02:49 PM

Originally Posted by ballmich

That's good. The Dodgers were or are in on Sanchez, reportedly. If they sign Ryu, perhaps that takes one suitor out of the running.

It doesn't sound like they're done spending stupid money to me. I wouldn't be interested in Sanchez for that kind of contract, anyways. I think he's kind of soft.