2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[Kishimei]

Can't say I agree with much of this. Illitch isn't selling, but he might die. I'm sure Chris Illitch is a great guy, but he's also a businessman and the current model is not good business. He would probably operate with a lesser payroll or sell the team IMO. Who knows if he even has a passion for baseball.

FWIW, My dad is a truck driver out of Detroit, and he works with a guy who, from what he told me, went to school with Mr. Illitch's son, or knows him somehow. I was concerned about the future of the team after he gains control of it and my dad told me that he had been talking with that guy at work, and was basically told it would be fine, and not to worry about it. I don't know how accurate that is or what it means, just some food for thought.

[Gehringer_2]

They better add a piece! I don't like that trade as it is.

Pretty much a disaster as written.

[ballmich]

I'd rather not make this trade for Upton, if it is similar to what is speculated. At some point you have to grow some of your own talent. Those three have a pretty decent shot at contributing at little cost over the next 3-4 years. And it shouldn't be that hard to piece together some offense at a corner OF spot.

That said, I do understand the urgency with Illitch, so it wouldn't surprise me even though I dont' think it's the best long term move.

Regardless, we'll know by the end of the winter meetings. When DD sets his sights on a player, things move quickly because he doesn't quibble on the cost. If it's not done by the end of the meetings, we're not getting Upton.

[ballmich]

Last winter I called Smyly somewhat a left handed version of Matt Garza, sans large nose. I still think that. I think Smyly is going to be pretty good.

Also, he's the only LHP that has a shot at our rotation. While I believe you just use your best five, it would be nice some year to have have a LHP make that group.

[froggyvk]

Smyly for Bauer is probably a wash at best (although if it's Porcello instead I'd be willing to listen) and to me Castellanos AND Garcia is too much to do when the Tigers can go find another corner outfielder on the FA market instead for $10-$13M a year that will not cost 2 or 3 young players to get.

I personally would take Smyly over Bauer without thinking twice. That's an easy call, despite Bauer's upside.

Wow. This is pretty unreal. Bauer has the potential to win Cy Young's. Smyly has the potential to slide in nicely in the middle of a rotation. The same arguments being made against Bauer and being made FOR the Tigers prospects. Castellanos and Garcia aren't exactly sure things themselves, just like Bauer.

[froggyvk]

For what it's worth, I don't believe the Diamondbacks would trade Upton and Bauer for Castellanos, Garcia and Smyly. Bauer and Castellanos are both highly regarded prospects, so to me it boils down to Upton for Garcia and Smyly. I'm pretty certain Arizona could get more. I think the Tigers have the pieces to acquire Upton with Bauer not included, but not without trading Castellanos.

[STLTiger69]

Last winter I called Smyly somewhat a left handed version of Matt Garza, sans large nose. I still think that. I think Smyly is going to be pretty good.

Also, he's the only LHP that has a shot at our rotation. While I believe you just use your best five, it would be nice some year to have have a LHP make that group.

+1


Again, what will $10M-$13M per year in the free agent market get you that will allow the Tigers to keep Smyly, Castellanos and Garcia? The Tigers would have to pay for Upton anyway ($38M total over the next 3 years) so why give up any good,cheap and young talent when you don't have too?

[STLTiger69]

Wow. This is pretty unreal. Bauer has the potential to win Cy Young's. Smyly has the potential to slide in nicely in the middle of a rotation. The same arguments being made against Bauer and being made FOR the Tigers prospects. Castellanos and Garcia aren't exactly sure things themselves, just like Bauer.

Nothing personal, but...

Give Bauer 100 innings at the major league level and four appearances between the World Series and the Championship Series and we'll get back together and compare notes then to see who is more likely to win the Cy Young or be a middle of the rotation pitcher.

[STLTiger69]

Drew Smyly vs. Trevor Bauer

Drew Smyly's 2 year minor league stats;

Tm	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	SHO	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
2 Seasons	11	8	.579	2.57	29	28	0	143.2	125	41	5	44	155	1.176

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2012.


Trevor Bauer 2 year minor league stats.

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
2 Seasons	13	4	.765	3.00	29	29	156.0	134	57	52	12	73	200	1.327

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2012.


And don't forget my future Cy Young candidate (I'm joking) the Tigers very own Adam Wilk over his 4 years minor league career...

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
4 Seasons	30	23	.566	2.66	83	83	493.1	430	181	146	39	73	385	1.020

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2012.

[Abe Fromen]

I'm in the crowd who would love Upton here.....but Nick C, Garcia, and Smyly would be too much and I would be really suprised to see it go down that way.

If they are throwing in Bauer for the same price, then I think DD would do it (and I think we would get the value end of that deal).

AJax, Upton, Miggy, Prince, VMart is a very imposing front 5.

If you get Bauer he probably gets called up in June (but FTR...I don't think Bauer will be part of this deal)

[Nastradamus]

Would Texas offer something like that? Florida didn't get that for Cabrera and he was entering his hitting prime rather than exiting it.

Probably not, but its not impossible. Texas is looking for a lineup anchor and I think Cabrera has made even more of a name for himself. Maybe something close without Beltre and with Olt and another prospect.

[Nastradamus]

True, his strikeout numbers are terrific, but damn are those walks concerning.

Smyly, at this point, is a safe bet to at least be a solid big league starter for a couple of years, his upside may be limited, but his floor is pretty high at this point.

Bauers floor is something like Andrew Miller, i.e. being absolutely useless.

Yah, Bauer reminds me of Kyle Drabek and Smyly is underrated. He has potential to be something along the lines of a Mark Buehrle or Andy Petite. Maybe even Cliff Lee. The guy has good K rates and understands how to pitch at an early age. Lefties get better with age usually too.

NO way I'd do that deal. I'd probably do a deal centered around Garcia and Castellanos due to our short term vision, but no way I throw in anything more than A ball fodder to complete the deal. Upton isn't worth more than that.

[Nastradamus]

Upon thinking about it, it probably wouldn't even be smart to give them Castellanos and/or Garcia. Spend the money on Hunter or Melky and move on.

[Los Gatos]

I love the thought of Upton but the OF speculation in general sure makes it all the more painful that the Tigers didn't sign Cespedes, regardless of the Fielder signing. He wasn't MLB-proven a year ago, but he looks like a bargain now and it would be great to have one of the corners locked up with a 2-way player at no trade cost. He's pretty much the exact player we need now and it appears the Tigers were so close to getting him.

I guess it boils down to if the Tigers think Upton can fulfill the superstar offensive potential he had as a prospect. Hard not to pay big for that, but I'd try really hard to keep Smyly.

[Jeff6851]

Eh, I don't really want Upton. If I'm working with Arizona I want Parra and he wouldn't cost too much

[TurnerHasHYPE]

I want Kate Upton.

[Nastradamus]

I would love Parra. Not sure what we trade them for him. Peralta might interest them, though that obviously leaves another hole. Maybe scoop up Yunel Escobar after that. Toronto signed Maicer Izturis today.

[cruzer1]

If the Tigers trade for Justin Upton, they would then have two different Justin Upton's on their team.

[MC24]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm

The rumor of a Justin Upton deal to Det in a package that included Castellanos, A.Garcia & Smyly definitely makes sense if Dbacks add piece

I'd do it. Smyly and Garcia are nice players but I think they are starting to get overvalued a bit.

[cruzer1]

They would have to throw in Bauer for that much. They're down on him, anyways.

[sabretooth]

the current model is not good business.

I assume this is your personal opinion, or do you have any facts to support this claim?

[MC24]

They would have to throw in Bauer for that much. They're down on him, anyways.

Isn't Bauer a top prospect? Why would they have to trade Bauer along with Upton for NC, Smyly and Garcia?

[Nastradamus]

I assume this is your personal opinion, or do you have any facts to support this claim?

I guess I'm not sure, but we were said to have the most debt in the majors and I can't imagine we are profiting right now. I suppose I could be wrong.

[sabretooth]

As far as the rumors about Castellanos/Garcia/Smyly for Upton/Bauer...

Justin Upton is a nice player, but he strikes out a lot, has mediocre power away from the BOB, and overall is a decent hitter away from the BOB, with a career .730 road OPS in a weaker pitching league, but with the capability of being quite a bit better. Before this season's catastrophic road OPS of .670, he did manage road OPS ranging from .780 to .860 in the previous three years, so he's not a bad hitter, and definitely has some pop, but his overall numbers are obviously park-inflated. I think Upton is pretty similar to Austin Jackson hitting-wise, but with more established HR power. His defense is definitely plus, despite a disappointing negative UZR in 2012.

I like Castellanos and Garcia, and I'd hate to trade them. While Upton seems like a very safe bet to do more in a starting role in 2013 than Nick and Avasail would, I'm a lot less certain that Upton is an upgrade beyond 2013.

Bauer is a far more highly regarded prospect than Smyly, and who am I to argue with the baseball gurus. He apparently has a dazzling array of pitches and good velocity (despite his control issues this year). I'd assume that this would be an upgrade, but frankly it's pretty high speculation on both sides.

If this deal came off, it would be a very interesting deal, not a clear winner or loser IMHO....I would not like to see the deal made personally, because I like our prospects, but it would have a high potential upside to it with Bauer, and would have some immediate payoff with Upton (who could be a good fit with the bat, even if he's not plus offensively), and would probably outweigh the downside risk overall.

[sabretooth]

Isn't Bauer a top prospect? Why would they have to trade Bauer along with Upton for NC, Smyly and Garcia?

No way would I trade Nick/Avasail/Smyly for Upton straight-up. Upton's a fairly nice player, kind of like David DeJesus with a little more HR power, but in no way is that worth our three best prospects IMHO.

[sagnam]

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but Sanchez reportedly looking for 6 years / 90 million.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...-million-deal/

[sabretooth]

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but Sanchez reportedly looking for 6 years / 90 million.

Anibal Sanchez wants a $90 million deal | HardballTalk

Yikes.

[Tim Mitchell]

Overpriced. Bye Anibel.

[Tim Mitchell]

1-Sign Melky Cabrera.
2-Trade for Elvis Andrus.
3-Reserve 2013 Season Tickets.

[Tim Mitchell]

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but Sanchez reportedly looking for 6 years / 90 million.

Anibal Sanchez wants a $90 million deal | HardballTalk

Anibal has pitched 3 full seasons and his career recor is 48-51.
15 mill a year.
Too many drugs going around.
Pass.

[Yoda]

Anibal has pitched 3 full seasons and his career recor is 48-51.
15 mill a year.
Too many drugs going around.
Pass.

Really, you're basing this off wins and losses?

[Oblong]

What was Doug Fister's W-L record when we got him?

[Jeff6851]

I like Anibal but not for that much. If we passed on Fielder then sure.

[chasfh]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm

The rumor of a Justin Upton deal to Det in a package that included Castellanos, A.Garcia & Smyly definitely makes sense if Dbacks add piece

I would **** a ****ing brick if we made this exact deal. Hell, I would be struck dumb if we traded Castellanos for Upton straight up.

I know Upton is only 24 and he's pretty good, but elite players don't go from a 142 OPS+ at age 23 to a 107 OPS+ at age 24, or have an OPS+ of 117 in his first 3,000 ABs, even by age 24. In fact, here's a table of all the players who have ever done that:

                                                                                             
Rk           Player OPS+   PA   Age   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS      Pos
1           Ty Cobb  176 3730 18-24 3364 618 1207 200 86  36 601 .359 .407 .501 .909    *98/7
2     Mickey Mantle  166 3491 19-24 2944 642  907 136 43 173 575 .308 .412 .560 .972 *89/6475
3           Mel Ott  150 3978 17-24 3367 680 1059 195 31 176 711 .315 .412 .548 .959  *98/745
4       Ken Griffey  149 3606 19-24 3180 518  972 194 19 172 543 .306 .379 .541 .920   *8/D39
5        Hank Aaron  145 3173 20-24 2895 496  914 159 39 140 494 .316 .365 .543 .908   *978/4
6    Frank Robinson  142 3155 20-24 2741 501  818 145 27 165 449 .298 .380 .552 .932   *73/85
7      Sherry Magee  139 3444 19-24 3063 442  890 166 79  22 430 .291 .353 .418 .771   *7/983
8      Cesar Cedeno  131 3491 19-24 3160 508  926 195 28 103 440 .293 .350 .470 .820   *8/973
9         Al Kaline  131 3776 18-24 3368 521 1047 156 34 125 544 .311 .374 .489 .863    *98/7
10      Vada Pinson  126 3552 19-24 3274 562 1011 193 50 102 446 .309 .355 .492 .847    *8/97
11     Justin Upton  117 3030 19-24 2663 438  739 147 28 108 363 .278 .357 .475 .832     *9/D
12      Rusty Staub  117 3306 19-24 2906 297  792 156 12  57 370 .273 .346 .393 .740   *93/78
13     Ruben Sierra  113 3130 20-24 2882 395  790 152 32 114 470 .274 .318 .468 .785   *9/78D
14     Andruw Jones  109 3312 19-24 2960 483  792 154 23 150 465 .268 .337 .487 .824    *89/7

As you can see, the HOFers on this list were much better at this age, and the guys at the bottom of the list? They all had OK careers, but would you trade Castellanos and Smyly and Garcia for Rusty Staub or Ruben Sierra? I wouldn't.

[chasfh]

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but Sanchez reportedly looking for 6 years / 90 million.

Anibal Sanchez wants a $90 million deal | HardballTalk

I still say Miami is a dark-horse candidate to re-acquire Sanchez. He never wanted to leave there in the first place, and fiscal responsibility regarding players was never Loria's strong suit.

[TigersSlappy]

As you can see, the HOFers on this list were much better at this age, and the guys at the bottom of the list? They all had OK careers, but would you trade Castellanos and Smyly and Garcia for Rusty Staub or Ruben Sierra? I wouldn't.

I would make the deal for Staub, his career post Age 24 was much better than Sierra's. I'd take 16-17 years left of his career over the possibility of what Castellanos and Garcia might be. As for Smyly, let's see what the other piece is if it ever happens.

[chasfh]

I would make the deal for Staub, his career post Age 24 was much better than Sierra's. I'd take 16-17 years left of his career over the possibility of what Castellanos and Garcia might be. As for Smyly, let's see what the other piece is if it ever happens.

I would bet on Castellanos having a better career than Staub. Pass.

[cruzer1]

Justin Upton is a much better athlete than Rusty Staub. I say that with some confidence.

[tiger337]

I would definitely do that trade for Staub.

[tiger337]

I would bet on Castellanos having a better career than Staub. Pass.

I'll at least wait until Castellanos hits at double-A before I start making bets like that. I'm not disappointed in his progress at all, but he has a ways to go. Rusty Staub had a 131 OPS+ in his age 25-34 seasons. Right now, Castellanos probably has as much chance as being Andy Marte as being better than Rusty Staub.

This is not to say I'd do the trade for Upton though. They would only get Upton for three years (as opposed to 10+ with Staub) and I'm not sure how he fits into their budget or the extent of his personal issues.