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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandyMarsh View Post
    +1, this is how I feel. There's no doubt that I think Porcello could really excel in the right environment, but unfortunately that environment is never going to exist here so there's no point in even speculating how he would do. He doesn't even need to be a Verlander or Scherzer and K 9+ per 9, but even if he could up his K rate to around 7 it would do wonders.

    But more important than the overall K rate is the fact that he doesn't have an out pitch for a K. If he was just pitching to contact all game and could K somebody once guys got on base or a runner on 3rd it would be one thing but that's not the case. His already bad K rate gets even worse once guys are on base which is when strikeouts are most important. So basically what I'm getting at is I do like him as a 4th or 5th starter and he's certainly valuable to the team but I don't care what his FIP, SIERRA or any other metric says, until he develops a true swing and miss out pitch I'm going to take it with a grain of salt.
    Right now Porcello's K rate is a bit of a moving target. It is up another 0.4/9IP since the ASB.

    I am less pessimistic about RP now than at his time last season based on the fact that under Jones' guidance he is beginning to transform his pitching style to one with a better potential ceiling that what he employed in 2010/11.

    I want to see how far Jones can bring him along. If Porcello continues to refine a slower breaking ball and continues along the path which he has begun of throwing a harder four seamer that actually breaks differently than his 2 seamer (which he had not really done before this year) - he will develop better ability to K guys at need (i.e. the missing "out" pitches).

    I guess my view would be that when you find a pitcher who can throw as many pitches and throw as hard as we now know Porcello can, and do it without walking anyone, then you have to assume approach is limiting success more than talent is.
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  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    Infante is fine at second for another couple years.
    7/19/2012. That's before the trade for Infante.
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  3. #83
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    I didn't realize this...
    From The Freep:

    In Rick Porcello's last four starts, the Tigers haven't scored while he has been in the game. According to research by Dave Smith of Retrosheet.or....

  4. #84
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    Yah, someone on the Tiger's radio crew mentioned that one too. Amazing.

  5. #85
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    I have a serious question (no sarcasm).....

    I see so many say that Porcello is limited because he doesn't get many K's. While that may be true, I look at a guy like Jeremy Hellickson having incredible success with almost the same K/9 rate and a significantly worse K/BB and BB/9 as Porcello. So my question is why is Hellickson talked about as a potential #1A/#2 guy but Porcello as a #4 upside? Is Hellickson all smoke and mirrors this year and just having a career season that can't be sustained? What's the big difference between Porcello and Hellickson that allows the latter to be great without getting K's while Porcello's lack of them is what holds him back?
    Last edited by TStar; 09-12-2012 at 11:54 PM.
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  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagnam View Post
    7/19/2012. That's before the trade for Infante.
    Ah, yes. Good call.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by ballmich View Post
    Ironically, most other stats show continued deterioration. I think Porcello has one more season to show some improvement across the board, otherwise he's a trade or non-tender possibility after 2013.
    The only stat that is showing deterioration is hit rate and I believe poor defense is partly responsible for that. He is showing slight improvement in most other numbers. He has actually been remarkably consistent across years. He has not developed into what many of us had hoped, but I don't see him as a non-tender even without improvement next year. He could start for almost any team in the majors and I believe he has quite a bit of trade value.
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  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by TStar View Post
    I have a serious question (no sarcasm).....

    I see so many say that Porcello is limited because he doesn't get many K's. While that may be true, I look at a guy like Jeremy Hellickson having incredible success with almost the same K/9 rate as Porcello.
    Well, the K comparison is a moving targets for RP the last two years. If you look at Hellickson he has been pretty steady for a couple years near his current 5.8K/9, where as RPs first two years were are 4.6/4.7 - which is a big difference. Now since the ASB this year, RP is at 5.7. If he had spent his career at 5.7 like Hellickson has he wouldn't have the "he doesn't K enough guys" narrative attached to him.
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  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by ballmich View Post
    Ironically, most other stats show continued deterioration. I think Porcello has one more season to show some improvement across the board, otherwise he's a trade or non-tender possibility after 2013.

    Fister is really the pitcher that I had Porcello pegged to be. And it's really disappointing that I don't think Porcello will ever get there.
    Trade, yes. Non-tender, probably not.

  10. #90
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    Porcello was never known for K's. He had that slider or what ever it was called that broke low and induced either grounders or bouncing infield stoppable hits. I never noticed he developed another pitch limiting him.
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  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysthrowheat View Post
    Trade, yes. Non-tender, probably not.
    No chance of a non-tender, as long as he keeps doing what he's doing.

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by TStar View Post
    I look at a guy like Jeremy Hellickson having incredible success with almost the same K/9 rate and a significantly worse K/BB and BB/9 as Porcello.
    In the stats community Hellickson is a huge anomaly. Part of it is probably the awesome infield defense that Tampa has, but I suspect that because Hellickson's main secondary pitch is a changeup, that he is able to induce weaker contact on that. I seem to recall that the depressed BABIP guys almost to a man feature a very good changeup.

    Rick's changeup is not good.
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  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cioe View Post
    ..

    Rick's changeup is not good.
    Tru dat!
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  14. #94
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    Pay link, so only the 1st paragraph quoted:

    Rick Porcello, RHP

    Because the Tigers broke Porcello into the big leagues before he was legally allowed to drink, it's easy to forget that this four-year veteran doesn't turn 24 until two days after Christmas. He's never lived up to the hype he got as a prospect, but slowly but surely, Porcello's markers have been trending in the right direction.
    Rick Porcello is poised to bounce back in 2013 - MLB - ESPN
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    2007AT-AAT-Alan Trammell

  15. #95
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    Good piece by Dave Cameron.

  16. #96
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    Does he need a bodybuilding program? He's kinda scrawny don't ya think? If i was him, with a contract coming up soon, I would be working with pro pitching instructors trying to improve myself. I hope he's doing something this winter to better himself as a pitcher...
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  17. #97
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    Yah, we've all been hoping he would add more muscle/size to his frame to help him go deeper in games. So far he hasn't had much luck, or hasn't tried. Who knows.

    Either way, I think it'd be a mistake to dump him unless the value is great. He's better than most 5th starters and he stays healthy.

  18. #98
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    It is ok to post a summary of the article, so could someone do that please? Pretty curious to hear what it says.
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  19. #99
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    Ask Youk if Rick needs to bulk up.
    It's pronounced Canada, and no, I haven't.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by john doe View Post


    Ask Youk if Rick needs to bulk up.
    Yeah - but that was in the second inning. If it had been after the 5th RP probably tops out at a return shove instead of the takedown.
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  21. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
    It is ok to post a summary of the article, so could someone do that please? Pretty curious to hear what it says.
    I'm sure it is fine to summarize. I'd do it if I had read it.

    Also, it's $1.66 a month.
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  22. #102
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    ..............
    Last edited by Nastradamus; 11-30-2012 at 08:33 PM.

  23. #103
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    Hooray for copyright violation.
    AAT: Ian Kinsler

  24. #104
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    Too much? Sorry, just wanted to help the guy out. The article is on multiple guys, so technically its only a portion of the article. I wasn't sure where to cut it off. I'll happily edit.

  25. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelton View Post
    I'm sure it is fine to summarize. I'd do it if I had read it.

    Also, it's $1.66 a month.
    That's like a Mt. Dew and a candy bar, dude.
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  26. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelton View Post
    Hooray for copyright violation.
    Meh, anyone here could have written that. Isn't exactly super-secret insider info. Should probably be deleted though to keep the board from getting in trouble.
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  27. #107
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    Happy 24th Birthday Rick!!
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  28. #108
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    This thread deserves a bump I'd say.

  29. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    The guy people say never improves might be one of the best examples of steady improvement by a young player that I can remember. He has the best FIP and xFIP of his life and has improved by roughly .3-.4 in FIP every single year.

    2009 4.77
    2010 4.31
    2011 4.06
    2012 3.91
    2013 3.67

    and that includes that one disaster start that came on irregular usage...
    Last edited by JayVee; 06-09-2013 at 02:03 AM.

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  30. #110
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    Let's look at some other stats while we're at it:

    K/9
    2009 4.69
    2010 4.65
    2011 5.14
    2012 5.46
    2013 7.71

    BB/9
    2009 2.74
    2010 2.10
    2011 2.27
    2012 2.25
    2013 1.86

    HR/9
    2009 1.21
    2010 1.00
    2011 0.89
    2012 0.82
    2013 1.14

    BABIP
    2009 .277
    2010 .307
    2011 .316
    2012 .344
    2013 .306

    GB%
    2009 54.2%
    2010 50.3%
    2011 51.4%
    2012 53.2%
    2013 56.1%

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  31. #111
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    Im loving what Porcello is doing. The improved offspeed stuff has really moved his game forward.

    WHIP
    2009 1.336
    2010 1.389
    2011 1.407
    2012 1.531
    2013 1.222

    Lefties are hitting .267 against him. The first nine hitters of the game are batting .255, the 2nd nine .295 and the 3rd only .218.

    Hes improved alot in some weak areas of his game. Its early but looking like hes got things figured out.
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  32. #112
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    He commands the fastball much more consistently, setting up a much better changeup, and he throws a pretty good curveball; plus goodbye to the junk slider. For his last 10 starts, he's been awesome, and the peripherals. And pitch improvement suggest that he's turned the corner.

    Even with JV not at typical JV standards, if Porcello keeps this up, the Tigers might have one of the best rotations in baseball history this year. I don't mean to jest.
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  33. #113
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    But ... but ... Porcello sucks! What's wrong with you fanboys? He just sucks!

    Doesn't he?

    I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

  34. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabretooth View Post

    Even with JV not at typical JV standards, if Porcello keeps this up, the Tigers might have one of the best rotations in baseball history this year. I don't mean to jest.
    There are seven MLB starting rotations that have allowed fewer runs per game this year. Obviously runs allowed are not all the responsibility of the pitcher, but I'd want to see them lead the league in fewest runs per game before calling them one of the best ever. The DIPS stats only measure a portion of what a pitcher does. That said, I wouldn't take any other starting five this year over the Tigers from this point on.
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  35. #115
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    Any way to split that to runs allowed while they were in the game? Just curious.
    .

  36. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    There are seven MLB starting rotations that have allowed fewer runs per game this year. Obviously runs allowed are not all the responsibility of the pitcher, but I'd want to see them lead the league in fewest runs per game before calling them one of the best ever. The DIPS stats only measure a portion of what a pitcher does. That said, I wouldn't take any other starting five this year over the Tigers from this point on.
    Only 2 AL teams ahead of them.

    They also have 68% quality starts, second closest is 59%.
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  37. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagnam View Post
    Only 2 AL teams ahead of them.
    They are still not first though. No, doubt they have a great staff, just not ready to call them one of the best ever if other staffs are allowing fewer runs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    They are still not first though. No, doubt they have a great staff, just not ready to call them one of the best ever if other staffs are allowing fewer runs.
    Dominant lead in FIP, xFIP and WAR for what its worth

  39. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oblong View Post
    Any way to split that to runs allowed while they were in the game? Just curious.
    Not easily. That's a good point though since the bullpen could be allowing a disproportionate number of starters base runners to score. One of the reasons the Tigers are giving up more runs than some other teams is that they have one of the lowest LOB% (Left On Base %) in the league. I'm not sure how much of that is the bullpen, but Scherzer and Porcello have been particularly bad at stranding runners. That's a new thing for Scherzer, but typical for Porcello.
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  40. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiger337 View Post
    There are seven MLB starting rotations that have allowed fewer runs per game this year. Obviously runs allowed are not all the responsibility of the pitcher, but I'd want to see them lead the league in fewest runs per game before calling them one of the best ever. The DIPS stats only measure a portion of what a pitcher does. That said, I wouldn't take any other starting five this year over the Tigers from this point on.
    If you're saying that the team has to give up the fewest runs in the league in order for the pitching staff to be considered the best, and that they can't be considered the best even if the pitchers are doing everything they should but poor defense is letting in too many runs, then you appear to be saying that the team's defense should be taken into consideration when assessing a pitching staff.

    Is this accurate? If not, what am I missing?
    I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

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